Orientador: Ana Inês Borri Genovez / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-16T17:03:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Zuffo_MonicaSoaresResio_D.pdf: 15627193 bytes, checksum: 02b486c7a72ec70097259162d4fcdc4e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010 / Resumo: A análise de risco em barragens trata da primeira iniciativa em direção à avaliação de risco oferecido por este tipo de estrutura. É parte constituinte de uma nova área de conhecimento denominada de Gerenciamento de Risco. O modelo baseado em risco procura dar segurança ao decisor, propiciando uma compreensão das implicações dos riscos e das incertezas associadas. Avaliações de risco por índices são valiosas, pois permitem uma avaliação de diferentes aspectos, informam um possível comprometimento da segurança da barragem e possibilitam um diagnóstico global das condições de segurança da estrutura. Devem, preferencialmente, refletir o risco métrico das chances de ocorrência e suas consequências, a fim de propiciar um aumento na compreensão das questões de segurança obtida por meio da aplicação de métodos tradicionais de avaliação da segurança de barragens, os quais são fundamentais para manter as barragens seguras. Contudo, podem não ser muito úteis na ocasião de hierarquizar as estruturas. O objetivo desse estudo é elaborar um índice de priorização de risco para pequenas barragens de material solto, denominado de IPRB. Seu algoritmo está fundamentado na Teorema das Probabilidades Totais, leva em consideração a avaliação de dez subcritérios relacionados às barragens e combina os atributos de avaliação com cinco modos de falha. Como estudo de caso, selecionou-se 28 pequenas barragens de material solto situadas na Bacia do Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí (PCJ), no Estado de São Paulo. A fim de auferir seus resultados, utilizou-se uma metodologia por índice de avaliação de risco probabilístico-determinístico e os resultados de uma avaliação tradicional de segurança, realizada a partir de um método determinístico Ad Hoc. O resultado do índice de priorização ofereceu a vantagem de conseguir uma hierarquização inicial para barragens que constam em um mesmo portfólio. Desta forma, a aplicação permite nortear a ordem das barragens que necessitam de estudos posteriores mais aprofundados ou para ajudar a estabelecer requerimentos de vigilância e monitoramento. Constata-se que é uma ferramenta eficaz, que auxiliará o gerenciamento dos riscos, e, assim, mostrou-se eficiente, seguindo as recomendações do que deve ser um índice de priorização de risco na análise de risco em barragens. O IPRB pode ser considerado como uma tentativa original em desenvolver tais ferramentas, pois é a única que é puramente semi-probabilística em sua determinação, característica muito desejada nas análises de risco / Abstract: The risk analysis for dams is the first step towards the accomplishment of a dam safety risk assessment. It is part of a new area of knowledge known as Risk Management. The riskbased model is to reassure the decision-making process, propitiating an understanding of the implications of the risks and uncertainties associated to dam safety issues. Risk analysis by indexes tools are valuable once they allow the evaluation of different aspects, inform a probable occurrence of hazards of the dam safety and permit a general overview of the dam safety conditions. Indexes prioritization shall incorporate a risk metric chance of occurrence of a dam incident/accident and its consequences, in order to allow a better understanding of the results given by the traditional dam safety approaches; its use is fundamental to keep a dam safety. However, the traditional approach methods are not very useful to rank dams. The purpose of this study is to elaborate an index prioritization for small embankment dams, named IPD. Its algorithm is based on the Total Probabilities Theorem and it considers 10 different criteria, linked to five failure modes. In order to develop this work, 28 small embankment dams, located at the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí river basin, in São Paulo state, Brazil, were chosen. A risk-based deterministic-probabilistic methodology and also the results obtained by a deterministic ad hoc method were employed to check on the results given by the IPD. The IPD results propitiated an initial hierarchy of dams belonging to a same portfolio. This way, its employment is useful to rank dams, which need further detailed studies, or to help establish monitoring and vigilance requirements. It can be considered as an effective tool that takes into account all the characteristics that an index prioritization must have and will certainly assist the risk management. The IPD is an original tool since it is the only one found purely on a probabilistic basis, which is a desired characteristic in risk analysis tools / Doutorado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Doutor em Engenharia Civil

Orientador: Ana Inés Borri Genovez / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-17T09:38:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Silva_LucianaVasquesCorreiada_M.pdf: 4691353 bytes, checksum: 05ef8f206bb1957c550c8b6cee57b065 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: A preocupação com o aprimoramento das técnicas de segurança de barragens tem sido cada vez mais discutida, devido ao aumento de incidentes ocorridos com estas estruturas situadas em locais densamente habitados. O objetivo deste trabalho é determinar a viabilidade técnica de uso do vertedor de emergência de vegetação em pequenas barragens de material solto. Para atingir este objetivo o dimensionamento foi realizado através do equacionamento básico e usando um modelo numérico, para dois tipos diferentes de cobertura vegetal. O uso de grama Bermuda com maior uniformidade, resultou numa menor descontinuidade na superfície de contato com o escoamento e menor probabilidade de erosão no canal. Este fato combinado com as dimensões resultantes para o canal permitem sugerir o uso deste tipo de cobertura vegetal. Os resultados indicaram que o vertedor de emergência de vegetação mostrou-se viável e uma alternativa eficiente para aumentar a segurança de barragens de material solto, apresentando construção simples e baixo custo, além de causar baixo impacto ao ambiente, sendo esteticamente melhor e adaptando-se às condições naturais da região de implantação da obra. A manutenção e diretrizes de inspeção devem proporcionar o bom funcionamento do vertedor de vegetação / Abstract: The concern about an enhancement of safety techniques for dams has been discussed more and more, due to an increase of the number of incidents that happened with structures located in places densely inhabited. The objective of this work is to establish the technical viability of using a vegetated emergency spillway in small embankment dams. To achieve such objective the design was done using a basic set of equations and a numerical model, for two different kinds of vegetation. The use of Cynodon dactylon grass with a bigger uniformity, resulted in a smaller discontinuity of the surface in touch with the flow and a smaller probability of having an erosion of the channel. Such factors, and the channel resulting dimensions, allow us to suggest the use of such vegetation cover. The results showed the viability of the emergency spillway with vegetation and also an efficient alternative to increase the safety of embankment dams, with inexpensive and easy construction, besides of causing a low environmental impact, also being esthetically best and adapting to the surrounding natural conditions. The maintenance and directions of inspection must provide a good operation of the vegetated spillway / Mestrado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Mestre em Engenharia Civil

A expansão da fronteira agrícola amazônica representa possivelmente a mais extensa e profunda mudança no uso da terra do mundo contemporâneo. Estima-se que a Bacia Amazônica já teve 20% de sua área desmatada e seus ecossistemas aquáticos, que abrigam a maior diversidade de peixes de água doce do planeta, também vem enfrentando inúmeras outras pressões, entre elas a construção de barragens. O desmatamento e a construção de barragens causam profundas alterações nas características bióticas e abióticas dos ecossistemas lóticos, incluindo o aquecimento da água e mudanças na composição e estrutura das assembleias de peixes. Existem inúmeras evidências de que o aumento da temperatura afeta negativamente o tamanho corporal dos organismos, e aquecimentos provocados por mudanças climáticas já foram relacionados com reduções no tamanho corporal de peixes. Contudo, faltam estudos que demonstrem que processos locais e regionais de grande relevância como as mudanças no uso da terra, também podem causar o mesmo resultado. Com foco geográfico no arco do desmatamento amazônico nas cabeceiras do Rio Xingu, os objetivos desta tese foram, (i) investigar os efeitos do desmatamento e da construção de barragens sobre características ambientais, e sobre a composição e estrutura das assembleias de peixes em riachos de primeira ordem; e (ii) testar as hipóteses de que a conversão de florestas em áreas agrícolas está associada a um aquecimento dos riachos e a uma redução no tamanho corporal dos peixes, e que esta redução no tamanho corporal é resultado de alterações na crescimento dos peixes, seja por mecanismos de adaptação e/ou por plasticidade fenotípica, promovidas pelo aquecimento do ambiente. No primeiro capítulo desta tese, demonstramos que o desmatamento e a construção de barragens provocam alterações em características ambientais dos riachos de primeira ordem que afetam a disponibilidade de hábitat para os peixes. Isto resultou em alterações na composição e estrutura das assembleias, de forma que riachos de área agrícola apresentaram maior abundância e biomassa de peixes que riachos de floresta. Trechos represados apresentaram menor riqueza de espécies que trechos lóticos tanto em ambientes florestados como desmatados, sugerindo que a construção de barragens constitui uma ameaça significativa para a conservação da biodiversidade de peixes. No segundo capítulo, combinamos amostragem em campo e experimentos em laboratório e campo para demonstrar que a conversão de florestas em áreas agrícolas aqueceos riachos de cabeceira e reduz o tamanho corporal dos peixes através de alterações nas taxas de crescimento individual Os aquecimentos e reduções de tamanho que observamos foram consideravelmente maiores que os reportados na literatura para os efeitos observados e previstos do aquecimento global. Este é o primeiro estudo, até onde nós sabemos, que investigou os efeitos do aquecimento provocado pelo desmatamento no tamanho corporal de peixes. É possível que reduções no tamanho corporal de peixes mediadas pelo aquecimento estejam ocorrendo ao longo de todo o arco do desmatamento, onde riachos de primeira ordem coletivamente contribuem com grande fração da biodiversidade de espécies amazônicas, muitas delas endêmicas. / The expansion of the Amazonian agricultural frontier possibly represents the most extensive and profound land use change in the contemporary world. Deforestation, dam construction, and numerous other pressures have serious impacts on its aquatic ecosystems, that collectively hold the greatest diversity of freshwater fish on the planet. Deforestation and dam construction cause profound changes in biotic and abiotic characteristics of stream ecosystems, including water heating and changes in the composition and structure of fish assemblages. There are many evidences that the increase in temperature negatively affect organisms body size, and warming caused by climate changes have already been associated with reductions in fish body size. However, there are no studies showing that local and regional processes of major relevance, such land use changes, can also cause the same result. With a geographic focus on the Amazonian arc of deforestation in the headwaters of the Xingu River, the objectives of this thesis were: (i) to investigate the effects of deforestation and dam construction on environmental characteristics, and on the composition and structure of fish assemblages in first order streams; and (ii) to test the hypothesis that the conversion of forests into agricultural areas is associated with stream warming and reductions in fish body size, and that this reduction in body size is a result of changes in individual growth caused by adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity, promoted by environmental warming. In the first chapter of this thesis, we show that deforestation and the construction of dams cause changes in environmental characteristics of first-order streams that affect the habitat availability for fish. This resulted in changes in the composition and structure of assemblages, so that agricultural area streams showed higher abundance and biomass of fish that forest streams. Reservoirs had lower species richness than lotic stretches both in forested and deforested streams, suggesting that the construction of dams poses a significant threat to the conservation of fish biodiversity. In the second chapter, we combine field sampling and laboratory and field experiments to demonstrate that the conversion of forests into agricultural areas warms headwater streams and reduces fish body size through changes in individual growth rates. Warming and size reductions we observed were considerably higher than those reported in the literature for the observed and predicted effects of global warming. This is the first study as far as we know, that investigated the effects of warming caused by deforestation in fish body size. It is possible that a broad scale fish body size reduction due to warming is occurring throughout the arc of deforestation, in streams that collectively account for a large fraction of Amazonian fish biodiversity.

Orientadores: Ana Ines Borri Genovez, Abel Maia Genovez / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Civil, Arquitetura e Urbanismo / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T09:32:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GumielAlcazar_RodrigoHugo_M.pdf: 2881880 bytes, checksum: da7c235b028b639dce28955b2ba40bab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: A construção de barragens tem sido uma opção importante que foi utilizada por muitos paises para atingir o desenvolvimento. Com o decorrer dos anos se constatou que as barragens produzem muitos benefícios e também impactos, pelo que se deve saber equilibrar na escolha e determinação dos novos projetos em função das necessidades existentes e sempre com o objetivo de atingir a sustentabilidade. Procurando um desenvolvimento sustentável futuro para Bolívia definiu-se como objetivo deste trabalho estimar o potencial hidrelétrico remanescente das diferentes bacias hidrográficas analisando e destacando os efeitos sobre o meio ambiente. Desta maneira, foi feito um estudo de regionalização para se determinarem as vazões e as curvas de permanência das vazões médias diárias, para avaliar o potencial hidrelétrico dos rios principais de cada bacia hidrográfica. O potencial hidrelétrico remanescente calculado da Bolívia foi de 68 GW, os quais estão concentrados na vertente leste da Cordilheira Oriental dos Andes, onde se identificaram quatro bacias com potencial individualizado de 21 GW. Os rios de planície demonstraram ter aptidão para aproveitamentos a "fio de água". Este trabalho constitui um avanço na identificação e determinação de futuros aproveitamentos hidroelétricos sustentáveis, nele se podem encontrar as ferramentas para determinar o potencial hidrelétrico remanescente e a curva de permanência de qualquer bacia hidrográfica dentro da região de estudo na Bolívia. Também se definem os conceitos e as recomendações para a sua sustentabilidade. / Abstract: The construction of dams has been one important option that was used by many countries in order to reach the development. With elapsing of the years the dams has evidence that produce many benefits but also impacts, that's why must be a balance in the choice and determination of the new projects in function of the needs and always with the goal of reach the sustainability. Looking a sustainable development for Bolivia was defined as objective of this work esteem the remaining hydroelectric potential of the different basins analyzing and detaching the effect on the environment. In this way, a regionalization study was made to determine the outflows of the flow duration curves of the daily average outflows, in order to evaluate the hydroelectric potential of the main rivers of each basin. The calculated remaining hydroelectric potential of Bolivia was of 68 GW which is concentrating in the flowing east of the eastern Mountain range of Andes, has been identified four basins with individualized potential of 21 GW. The plain rivers had demonstrated to have aptitude for run-of river plants. This work constitute and advance in the identification and determination of future sustainable hydroelectric projects, inside could be find the tools to determine the remaining hydroelectric potential and the flow duration curve for any basin in the area of the study in Bolivia. Also were defined the concepts and the recommendations for made that projects sustainable. / Mestrado / Recursos Hidricos, Energeticos e Ambientais / Mestre em Engenharia Civil

L’anguille européenne Anguilla anguilla est une espèce catadrome avec un cycle de vie complexe incluant des migrations entre la mer de Sargasses et l’Europe et l’Afrique du Nord. On a noté une baisse drastique de sa population depuis les 30 ans et on la considère aujourd’hui comme ‘en danger critique’. Une des causes principales de ce déclin est la fragmentation de l’habitat.Nous avons étudié si les obstacles aquatiques peuvent exercer un pression de sélection sur les jeunes anguilles en migration. On a utilisé une approche sans a priori, où une large liste des gènes a été analysée dans trois tissus de chaque poisson provenant des zones amont/aval de l’obstacle (article 1). On a détecté les différences de transcription des gènes du cerveau des poissons, ces gènes étant liés à la plasticité neuronale. On a également trouvé que ces différences se maintiennent à long terme (article 2). Finalement, on a étudié la relation entre le comportement d’escalade et la transcription des gènes (article 3). Les anguilles provenant des zones amont possèdent une tendance d’escalade la plus forte. De plus, certains poissons classés comme ‘leaders’ d’escalade présentaient des niveaux de transcription de gènes liés à la cognition plus faibles que les ‘suiveurs’. Ces résultats peuvent être associés au concept de coping style et de la personnalité animale. En effet, on suggère que les leaders agissent comme des individus proactifs et téméraires, contrairement aux suiveurs, plutôt réactifs et timides.L’implication des notre étude est discutée dans le contexte écologique, car la présence des obstacles peut modifier les patterns de distribution de phénotypes dans les réseaux aquatiques. / The European eel Anguilla anguilla is a catadromous fish with a large scale migration loop including the Sargasso sea, Europe and North Africa. In the last 30 years, drastic declines of abundance have been observed and the species is currently considered as critically endangered. One of the main causes of species decline is habitat fragmentation, which prevents migrating fish accessing growth zones.We studied whether aquatic obstacles can enact selectively on migrating young eels. We applied a no a priori approach to detect any traits involved in the process of obstacle passage. We used a microarray analysis for gene expression screening in three tissues (brain, liver, muscle) of young eels sampled in different sections of an impounded watercourse (article 1). The only differences detected between groups of fish concerned the brain tissue, and the detected genes were related to synaptic plasticity. We also found that transcription levels of genes related to neural activity, oestrogen and thyroid metabolisms were different after two months of common garden (article 2). Finally, we studied the relationship between the gene transcription and climbing behaviour (article 3). Upstream fish showed the highest climbing tendency. Moreover, we found that the ‘climbing’ leaders showed lower transcription levels of cognition-related gene than fish following them. We suggest that leaders can enact as bold and proactive individuals, in contrast to reactive followers.The implication of our results is discussed in an ecological context, where the presence of water obstacles can modify the distribution of different phenotypes in the upstream and downstream parts of the water axis.

Please read the abstract in the section 00front of this document / Thesis (PhD (Civil Engineering))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Civil Engineering / unrestricted

This research aims to understand environmental conflicts generated by large investment projects. Theoretically, this research locates itself within the historical political ecology perspective. It seeks to understand environmental conflicts as a clash of historical representations over the environment that can be traced from the process of dispossession by colonialism and the consolidation of the national state. It is argued that certain places have been constructed as specific socio-natural entities for the reproduction of power relations over nature and people through environmental transformations by discourses and frameworks about environment and society, the establishment of material practices, and the collapsing of biophysical features within political-economy. The case under analysis is the construction of dams in Chilean Patagonia through the HidroAysén project. This project belongs to the transnational company ENDESA and the Chilean private company Colbún. HidroAysén aims to build five dams across two rivers located in the Aysén region in Western Patagonia, a region that has been a scene for the territorialisation of the colonial and postcolonial state over the last four hundred years. The research questions to understand this environmental conflict are: How has Chilean Patagonia been socially constructed in the past? What political economic conditions and discourses enable dams to be built in Chilean Patagonia? Which discourses are in conflict regarding the HidroAysén Project? This research follows a qualitative approach focused on Foucauldian genealogy to understand discourses and representations about the environment. Data have been collected through secondary sources about the history of Patagonia, including accounts from explorations, government reports, scholarly articles, information from the HidroAysén company, and information from the anti-dam campaign Patagonia without Dams. I have also used fifty interviews conducted in Patagonia with people who live in the places that could be affected by the construction of dams. Data have been analysed through the constructionist approach of grounded theory and critical discourse analysis. The main findings are that environmental conflicts have historical and cultural content. Patagonia is a cultural landscape created through the territorialisation of the colonial and postcolonial state, and at the same time, through a process of counter-territorialisation spontaneously performed by settlers. Elites have used Patagonia to increase their power in a material and symbolic way through the mobilization of pre-existing discourses. Therefore, Patagonia does not pre-exist its construction: there is nothing natural about Patagonia but a revisited history of otherness and dispossession. Consequently, environmental conflict over HidroAysén is not only about the hydroelectricity project, but about how territories are constructed and socially and environmentally transformed through the mobilization of representations. The conclusion is that the environmental transformations are one of the most severe forms of inequality.

This thesis describes a study of the application of linear programming, a mathematical optimization technique, to the problem of operating a system of flood control reservoirs in the most efficient way for maximum flood peak reduction. The reservoir system studied was one which is proposed for flood control in the Fraser River Basin and for which preliminary designs have been made. The proposed sites are in the headwater areas of the river basin, remote from the area to be protected. A channel routing method which was linear was required for use with the linear programming technique. A method was developed which was based on monoclinal wave theory. Several different cases were studied in which the reservoir capacities and combinations of reservoirs included in the system were varied. The results show the maximum regulation which is available from each combination of reservoirs and identify the minimum storage capacities required at each site. Application of the technique in planning studies and in real-time reservoir operation is discussed. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate

Erosie in onbelynde oorloopkanale van damme veroorsaak skade aan die omgewing en bedreig die veiligheid van strukture. Huidige metodes om die potensiaal van erosieskade in oorloopkanale te bepaal is onbevradigend. Onnodige onkoste word dil<wels aangegaan deur goeie rots to baklee of deur regmakende aksies waar die rots te swak was om onbelyn te taat. Dit is derhalwe noodsaaklik dat praktiese metodes ontwikkel word om die erodeerbaarheid van rots te kan voorspel voor konstruksie plaasvind. 'n Uitgebreide literatuurstudie is aangepak oar aspekte van erosie, uitskuring, rotsmassaklassifikasiestelsels, vloede by damoorlope en hidrouliese parameters wat betrekking het op erodeerbaa.rheid. Nege en twintig damme in die R.S.A. is besoek in 'n paging om die invloed van verskillende geologiese, geotegniese en hidrouliese parameters op erosie te bepaal. Die omvang van die erosieskade is by elk van 43 erosiepunte bepaal en die erosiemeganisme is bestudeer. Waterspuittoetse is uitgevoer om 'n aanduiding te kry van die erosiepotensiaal en erosietempo vir spesifieke erodeerbare sones. Nate verswak die rotsmassa en hoe meer nate met vulmateriaal teenwoordig is, hoe grater is die erosiepotensiaal van die rotsmassa. Die naattoestande in verskillende tipes rotsmassas by verskillende oorloopkanale is bestudeer en aangeteken. Kohesiewe naatvulmateriaal speel 'n belangrike rol by die erodeerbaarheid van rotsmassas. Dit het daartoe gelei dat indekstoetse en vloeikanaaltoetse op gesimuleerde naatvulmateriaal uitgevoer word. Met behulp van indekstoetse is die mees geskikte materiaal en mengsel, wat so ver moontlik natuurlike vulmateriaal naboots, verkry. Toetsmonsters is van hierdie materiaal gemaak en in 'n vloeikanaal vir erosiepotensiaal en erosiemeganisme getoets. Die vloeikanaal is so aangepas dat watersnelhede van tot 10 meter per sekonde bereik kon word. Snelhede waarby die monsters begin erodeer is bepaal en die eenheids stroomdrywing (kW /m2 ) vir hierdie drumpelsnelhede is bepaal. Daar is deurgaans gepoog om met 'n skaal van 1 :1 te werk, maar aangesien dit nie altyd prakties moontlik was nie, kon die rol van skaal op die betroubaarheid van die toetsdata nie bepaal word nie. Die hidrouliese erodeerbaarheid van 'n rotsmassa is 'n funksie van die eienskappe van die rotsmassa en die versteurende effek van die water wat daaroor vloei. Deur vergelyking van die Kirsten uitgraafbaarheidsklas en die eenheids stroomdrywing met die omvang van erosie by 43 geselekteerde punte in 'n aantal oorloopkanale, is 'n tegniek ontwikkel waarmee die hidrouliese erodeerbaarheid van verskillende rotsmassas bepaal kan word. Aanbevelings aangaande die evaluering van 'n terrein vir erosiepotensiaal word gemaak. Metodes vir die voorkoming van erosieskade in 'n onbelynde oorloop word bespreek. Sekere aanbevelings omtrent terreine waar erosie reeds plaasgevind het en terreine waar moontlike erosie kan voorkom, word gemaak. Aanbevelings vir maatreels teen erosie en herstel van die skade word ook gemaak. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 1993. / gm2014 / Geology / unrestricted

Broad-scale niche models are good for examining the potential for invasive species occurrences, but can fall short in providing managers with site-specific locations for monitoring. Using Oklahoma as an example, where invasive bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) are established in certain reservoirs, but predicted to be widely distributed based on broad-scale niche models, we cast bighead carp reproductive ecology in a site-specific geospatial framework to determine their potential establishment in additional reservoirs. Because bighead carp require large, long free-flowing rivers with suitable hydrology for reproduction but can persist in reservoirs, we considered reservoir tributaries with mean annual daily discharge ≥8.5 cubic meters per second (m3/s) and quantified the length of their unimpeded portions. In contrast to published broad-scale niche models that identified nearly the entire state as susceptible to invasion, our site-specific models showed that few reservoirs in Oklahoma (N = 9) were suitable for bighead carp establishment. Moreover, this method was rapid and identified sites that could be prioritized for increased study or scrutiny. Our results highlight the importance of considering the environmental characteristics of individual sites, which is often the level at which management efforts are implemented when assessing susceptibility to invasion.