The study attempts to apply the DEFCON Concept as an early alert system to Non-Performing-Loan (NPL) Management in Taiwan’s Banking Industry. The recent financial crises in South East Asia have stimulated a significant body of empirical research on the subject of potential leading indicators for banking crises. Specifically, a number of statistical models have been developed to provide early warning signals of impending risks and also the relationship between the NPL and those leading indicators. The purpose of this study is to 1) Explain the definition of DEFCON and the application of DEFCON in the banking industry, 2) The literature review is on the correlation between Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomic variables, giving particular importance to regression models. 3) The methodology of DEFCON Planning includes the data used, variables selection via the coefficient analysis, a simple regression model and usage of the selected variables to set the DEFCON triggers 4) Ultimately, to help aid in what Bank’s can undertake under different levels of DEFCON to prevent potential loss. Our empirical results show that 1) Economic Growth Rate 2) the Leading Index 3) Bounced Check Rate, 4) Shinyi Housing Index 5) Unemployment Rate 6) Consumer Price Index 7) Consumer Debt 8) M1B currency supply and 9) Unemployment Rate, are the leading indicators that predict Taiwan’s NPL ratio; however, it is prudent to note that the NPL ratio may be manipulated by banks, and may result to inaccurateness in some indictor’s prediction of the model. It is imperative that constant monitoring be the practice to ensure the effectiveness of the model. The Banks in Taiwan should monitor the overall DEFCON status periodically and use it as early alert system and take proactive actions based on the level of economic deterioration (DEFCON level) to well manage their asset and reduce NPL.

Title: Bridging Pogamut and Defcon Author: Bc. Radek Píbil Department: Department of Software and Computer Science Education Supervisor of the master thesis: Mgr. Jakub Gemrot Abstract: In this thesis we are going to discuss the support of Pogamut AI frame- work for the Defcon PC game. Defcon is a multiplayer real-time strategy putting player into control of one part of the world's sea force, air force and nuclear ar- senal. We are going to cover five main topics. First is concerned with bridging Pogamut and Defcon. Next discusses provided algorithms useful for agent pro- gramming for such a kind of environment. Third describes the implementation of a purely Java agent. Fourth shows an implementation using Jason MAS frame- work. Final is going to evaluate the performance of the agents. Our main reason for bridging Pogamut is that as the gaming AI becomes more and more prominent in academia, more and more computer games allow programmers to implement their own AI. Pogamut AI platform follows this trend by expanding into two new environments Starcraft and Defcon, which introduce real-time strategy environ- ments to Pogamut, whose origins are in first-person shooters. Keywords: Defcon, Artificial Intelligence, Real-Time Strategy Games, Pogamut

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The existing INFOCON system is an information warning system that the DOD maintains. It is not formally correlated to other warning systems, such as DEFCON, FPCON/THREATCON, WATCHCONs, SANS INFOCON, or the Homeland Security Advisory System Threat condition. The criteria for each INFOCON level are subjective. The INFOCON recommended actions are a mix of policy and general technical measures. The INFOCON system vaguely follows the Defense in Depth network defense methodology. This thesis examines the foundations for the existing INFOCON system and presents an evolved INFOCON system. The focus will be on the security of the DOD information infrastructure and the accomplishment of the mission, as well as the usability and the standardization of the INFOCON warning system. The end result is a prototype that is a set of predefined escalation scripts for the evolved INFOCON system's safeguard measures. / Civilian, Federal Cyber Service Corps, Naval Postgraduate School