Large deviation theory has experienced much development and interest in the last two decades. A large deviation principle is the exponential decay of the probability of increasingly rare events and the computation of a rate or entropy function which measures the rate of decay. Within the probability literature there has been much use made of these rates in diverse applications. These large deviation principles have been discovered for independent and identically distributed random variables, as well as random vectors and these have been extended to some cases of weak dependence. In this thesis we prove large deviation principles for finite dimensional distributions of scaling limits of random measures. Functional approaches to large deviation theory using test functions as dual objects to random measures are also developed. These results are applied to some important classes of models, in particular Poisson point processes, Poisson center cluster processes and doubly stochastic point processes. / Graduation date: 1991

The theory of large deviations can help to shed light on systems in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and, more generically, on non-reversible stochastic processes. For this purpose, we target trajectories in space time rather than static configurations and study time-extensive observables. This suggests that the details of the evolution law such as the presence of time correlations take on a major role. In this thesis, we investigate selected models with stochastic dynamics that incorporate memory by means of different mechanisms, devise a numerical approach for such models, and quantify to what extent the memory affects the large deviation functionals. The results are relevant for real-world situations, where simplified memoryless (Markovian) models may not always be appropriate. After an original introduction to the mathematics of stochastic processes, we explore, analytically and numerically, an open-boundary zero-range process which incorporates memory by means of hidden variables that affect particle congestion. We derive the exact solution for the steady state of the one-site system, as well as a mean-field approximation for larger one-dimensional lattices. Then, we focus on the large deviation properties of the particle current in such a system. This reveals that the time correlations can be apparently absorbed in a memoryless description for the steady state and the small fluctuation regime. However, they can dramatically alter the probability of rare currents. Different regimes are separated by dynamical phase transitions. Subsequently, we address systems in which the memory cannot be encoded in hidden variables or the waiting-time distributions depend on the whole trajectory. Here, the difficulty in obtaining exact analytical results is exacerbated. To tackle these systems, we have proposed a version of the so-called 'cloning' algorithm for the evaluation of large deviations that can be applied consistently for both Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics. The efficacy of this approach is confirmed by numerical results for some of the rare non-Markovian models whose large deviation functions can be obtained exactly. We finally adapt this machinery to a technological problem, specifically the performance evaluation of communication systems, where temporal correlations and large deviations are important.

In this thesis, we consider computational methods of finding exit probabilities for a class of multivariate stochastic processes. While there is an abundance of results for one-dimensional processes, for multivariate processes one has to rely on approximations or simulation methods. We adopt a Large Deviations approach in order to estimate barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian Bridge. We use this approach in conjunction with numerical techniques to propose an efficient method of obtaining barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian motion. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that our method works better than other existing methods. We present applications of the proposed method in addressing problems in finance such as estimating default probabilities of several credit risky entities and pricing credit default swaps. We also extend our computational method to efficiently estimate a barrier crossing probability of a sum of Geometric Brownian motions. This allows us to perform a portfolio selection by maximizing a path-dependent utility function.

In this thesis, we consider computational methods of finding exit probabilities for a class of multivariate stochastic processes. While there is an abundance of results for one-dimensional processes, for multivariate processes one has to rely on approximations or simulation methods. We adopt a Large Deviations approach in order to estimate barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian Bridge. We use this approach in conjunction with numerical techniques to propose an efficient method of obtaining barrier crossing probabilities of a multivariate Brownian motion. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that our method works better than other existing methods. We present applications of the proposed method in addressing problems in finance such as estimating default probabilities of several credit risky entities and pricing credit default swaps. We also extend our computational method to efficiently estimate a barrier crossing probability of a sum of Geometric Brownian motions. This allows us to perform a portfolio selection by maximizing a path-dependent utility function.

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

This thesis consists of four papers, presented in Chapters 2-5, on the topics large deviations and stochastic simulation, particularly importance sampling. The four papers make theoretical contributions to the development of a new approach for analyzing efficiency of importance sampling algorithms by means of large deviation theory, and to the design of efficient algorithms using the subsolution approach developed by Dupuis and Wang (2007). In the first two papers of the thesis, the random output of an importance sampling algorithm is viewed as a sequence of weighted empirical measures and weighted empirical processes, respectively. The main theoretical results are a Laplace principle for the weighted empirical measures (Paper 1) and a moderate deviation result for the weighted empirical processes (Paper 2). The Laplace principle for weighted empirical measures is used to propose an alternative measure of efficiency based on the associated rate function.The moderate deviation result for weighted empirical processes is an extension of what can be seen as the empirical process version of Sanov's theorem. Together with a delta method for large deviations, established by Gao and Zhao (2011), we show moderate deviation results for importance sampling estimators of the risk measures Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The final two papers of the thesis are concerned with the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms using subsolutions of partial differential equations of Hamilton-Jacobi type (the subsolution approach). In Paper 3 we show a min-max representation of viscosity solutions of Hamilton-Jacobi equations. In particular, the representation suggests a general approach for constructing subsolutions to equations associated with terminal value problems and exit problems. Since the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms is connected to such subsolutions, the min-max representation facilitates the construction of efficient algorithms. In Paper 4 we consider the problem of constructing efficient importance sampling algorithms for a certain type of Markovian intensity model for credit risk. The min-max representation of Paper 3 is used to construct subsolutions to the associated Hamilton-Jacobi equation and the corresponding importance sampling algorithms are investigated both theoretically and numerically. The thesis begins with an informal discussion of stochastic simulation, followed by brief mathematical introductions to large deviations and importance sampling. / <p>QC 20140424</p>

Thesis (Ph.D.) -- James Cook University, 2005. / Typescript (photocopy) Bibliography: leaves 298-328.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 1991. / Typescript (photocopy). Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-73). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Thesis (doctoral)--Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, 1995. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 112-119).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1991. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 351-357).