There is a growing body of literature reporting the application of hybrid simulations to inform decision making. However, guidance for the design of such models, where the output depends upon more than one modelling paradigm, is limited. The benefits of realising this guidance include facilitating efficiencies in the general modelling process and reduction in project risk (both across measures of time, cost and quality). Focussing on the least well researched modelling combination of agent-based simulation with system dynamics, a combination potentially suited to modelling complex adaptive systems, the research contribution presented here looks to address this shortfall. Within a modelling process, conceptual modelling is linked to model specification via the design transition. Using standards for systems engineering to formally define this transition, a critical review of the published literature reveals that it is frequently documented. However, coverage is inconsistent and consequently it is difficult to draw general conclusions and establish best practice. Therefore, methods for extracting this information, whilst covering a diverse range of application domains, are investigated. A general framework is proposed to consistently represent the content of conceptual models; characterising the key elements of the content and interfaces between them. Integrating this content in an architectural design, design classes are then defined. Building on this analysis, a decision process is introduced that can be used to determine the utility of these design classes. This research is benchmarked against reported design studies considering system dynamics and discrete-event simulation and demonstrated in a case study where each design archetype is implemented. Finally, the potential for future research to extend this guidance to other modelling combinations is discussed. / ©Cranfield University, 2014

Progressive Neuromuscular Diseases (PNDs) are relentless, debilitating, incurable diseases that cause nerves and muscles to atrophy. A large portion of the population who experience PNDs are adolescents. These adolescents progressively lose physical abilities and increasingly rely on caregivers at a time in their life when, paradoxically, normative adolescent development prescribes a move towards independence and autonomy. There is little research examining this experience from the adolescents’ perspectives. The purpose of this interpretive phenomenology study was to understand the experience of adolescents with PNDs when making decisions in relation to their health. Data collection consisted of 10 semi-structured interviews with 5 adolescents, 16-19 years of age, who were living with a PND (two interviews with each of the 5 participants). These interviews lasted an average of 60 minutes. Data were analysed using interpretive strategies, including the development of themes using exemplars, and paradigm cases. Findings revealed that the adolescents separated health decisions into two distinct categories, Big and Small, based upon level of perceived risk and physician involvement. Big referred to high-risk decisions, included physicians, and involved a medical/surgical procedure or intervention. Small referred to lower risk decisions, did not include physicians, and involved personal care. An expert emerged with each category of decision. In Big Decisions, the physician was perceived as the expert who made recommendations, provided information, and introduced the decision. In Small Decisions, the adolescent perceived himself as the expert. With Big Decisions, the physician expertise was typically respected, and the recommendations were followed. With Small Decisions, parents typically respected adolescent expertise. However, the adolescents commonly experienced not having their expertise respected by health professionals. In the context of Big and Small decisions, the theme Joint Ownership captured the sense that with the progressive loss of abilities and resulting dependence, the physical disability and illness were not experienced solely by the adolescent but by the adolescent and his parent(s). As the parent(s) and adolescent shared these experiences, the decisions, ownership of the physical body, and the responsibility for the care of the body also became shared. The findings suggest that health care professionals need to include the adolescents in the Small Decisions, and also acknowledge that adolescents may desire parental involvement in Big Decisions. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Nursing, School of / Graduate

Commercial listed property is a complex, yet potentially lucrative asset class to invest in. South Africa’s property index delivered average returns of 34% for 2006/7 and was rated best performer internationally. While many of the funds in the sector as still forecasting excellent yields, some are struggling to survive in the current, difficult economic environment. The main objective of this study was to enter the realm of the property fund manager in order to gain a better understanding of the underlying assets, the macro-economic challenges, portfolio risks and investment valuation criteria. A qualitative research study was done with decision makers within the listed property environment using investment case studies covering the retail, office, industrial and hotel sectors. The results of the research were developed into a framework providing insight into the investment valuation process and portfolio strategies employed by some of the leading funds and which can be used as a decision-model for potential investors. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

No description available.

No description available.

No description available.

Objective: To understand the experiences of the dialysis decision-making process from the perspective of the significant other, specifically their role, influencing factors and the supportive interventions of the interprofessional team. Method: An interpretive description qualitative study was conducted using individual interviews and results were triangulated with decisional conflict and decisional regret quantitative results. Results: Ten participants described their role as advocating, providing a positive outlook, ‘being with’ the patient, learning together, sharing opinions, and communicating about values, preferences, feasibility of options. Environmental factors that influenced decision making included unexpected life change, choosing life, and personal health problems. Factors related to implementation of the treatment modality decision were unanticipated events, relationship changes, recreational travel changes, and the caregiver role. Nursing interventions are required to realign treatment expectations. Relevance: Significant others have an important role in supporting the patient making the dialysis decision and are often instrumental in implementing the decision.

Objective: To explore interventions that support children and parents making health decisions. Systematic Review: A systematic review was conducted to synthesize evidence on interventions that support children’s health decision making. Five studies of variable quality were included. Interventions that improved decision making were decision coaching with or without an educational resource, or education alone. Pre-/post-test pilot: A pre-/post-test study evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of decision coaching guided by the Ottawa Family Decision Guide for children with type 1 diabetes and their parents. Of 16 families invited, 7 participated. Compared to children/parents who preferred one option at baseline, participants who were unsure of the best option rated decision coaching as more acceptable and had larger decreases in decisional conflict. Conclusions: Few studies have evaluated interventions supporting children’s decision making. The piloted decision support intervention was feasible and acceptable, particularly with children and parents who were unsure of the best option.

This essay attempts a preliminary explanation of the behavioral content in financial investment, and stops short of measuring it. In the past insufficient attention has been given to the analysis of risk-taking behavior in terms of expected utility and to the relationship between that behavior in financial investment and some of the variables in social structure such as occupation and wealth. These issues are presented in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 presents and discusses the scope and method of the essay, some contemporary research trends in economics, sociology, and anthropology, the analytic focus of economic sociology and anthropology relevant to the essay, markets and exchange, and the state of interdisciplinary research in this connection. Two chapters are devoted to decision-making theory; in Chapter 3, the theories of riskless and risky choices, the Bernoulli hypothesis, and game theory; in Chapter 4, unmeasurable uncertainty, a psychological criticism of the theory of risky choices and a review of risk-taking behavior as a function of the situation, the individual, and the group. Chapter 5 presents a standard economic analysis of the investment function and the liquidity preference theory, and adds a review of two early studies (Marx, Weber) on financial investment. In Chapter 6 the problem is restated in relation to the above considerations. Macrostructures are defined and the substructures differentiated. The unit of analysis is a micro-structure of financial investors drawn from one of Vancouver's brokerage firms, and the tool of analysis is a survey. In Chapter 7 the empirical data are presented and discussed in terms of the theoretical considerations. Since our data are crude, we have limited ourselves to conjectures which can be given a preliminary test. Specifically, we set forth (a) that occupation and wealth greatly affect risk-taking behavior; (b) that the higher the income and stock of wealth as indicated by portfolio composition the greater the risk aversion, and that the investment utility is a source of amusement or serves as a hedge against inflation; (c) that the smaller the income and stock of wealth as indicated by portfolio composition the higher the risk-taking behavior because of its greater utility, and that the investment utility contributes to make ends meet or provide work satisfaction. In the remaining section of the essay (Chapter 8) we appraise our research design and suggest future lines of research. / Arts, Faculty of / Sociology, Department of / Graduate

The explicit consideration of certain types of uncertainty, in the analysis of investment opportunities, has become practical for the modern day decision maker. However, uncertainty analysis has generally been concerned with the probabilistic nature of future cash flows of investment opportunities. The uncertainty of cash flows, while extremely important in analysis, is by no means the only type of uncertainty which faces the decision maker. This thesis investigates another dimension of uncertainty by explicitly considering the possibility of better investment opportunities occurring in the future. A model is developed which approximates the interarrival time of investment opportunities by a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The interarrival times are assumed to have a negative exponential probability density function, which corresponds to an Erlang family of probability density functions for the n th - order interarrival time. The present value, at the time the investment opportunity occurs, is assumed to be an element of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. The distribution from which these random variables are drawn is assumed to be known. Using these independent families of random variables, a general model is developed. The above model is extended to take into account the effect of spending money in search of better investment opportunities. The amount spent on search is assumed to have an effect on the arrival rate of investment opportunities. Using the model described above, a number of interesting problems are analyzed. For a large class of problems the analysis determines the following: a) The expected value of continuing in search of better investment opportunities for a particular investment policy. b) The optimal investment policy which maximizes the expected value of continuing to search. c) The optimal level of search for a particular investment policy. d) The expected time until an acceptable investment, as defined by the investment policy, occurs. Numerical examples are formulated and numerical results for the above are determined. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate