Internal audit departments strive to control risk within an organization. To do this they choose specific audit areas to include in an audit plan. In order to select areas, they usually focus on those areas with the highest risk. Even though high risk areas are considered, there are various other restrictions such as resource constraints (in terms of funds, manpower and hours) that must also be considered. In some cases, management might also have special requirements. Traditionally this area selection process is conducted using manual processes and requires significant decision maker experience. This makes it difficult to take all possibilities into consideration while also catering for all resource constraints and special management requirements. In this study, mathematical techniques used in capital budgeting problems are explored to solve the IT audit area selection problem. A DSS is developed which implements some of these mathematical techniques such as a linear programming model, greedy heuristic, improved greedy heuristic and evolutionary heuristic. The DSS also implements extensions to the standard capital budgeting model to make provision for special management requirements. The performance of the mathematical techniques in the DSS is tested by applying different decision rules to each of the techniques and comparing those results. The DSS, empirical experiments and results are also presented in this research study. Results have shown that in most cases a binary 0-1 model outperformed the other techniques. Internal audit management should therefore consider this model to assist with the construction of an IT internal audit plan. / MSc (Computer Science), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Internal audit departments strive to control risk within an organization. To do this they choose specific audit areas to include in an audit plan. In order to select areas, they usually focus on those areas with the highest risk. Even though high risk areas are considered, there are various other restrictions such as resource constraints (in terms of funds, manpower and hours) that must also be considered. In some cases, management might also have special requirements. Traditionally this area selection process is conducted using manual processes and requires significant decision maker experience. This makes it difficult to take all possibilities into consideration while also catering for all resource constraints and special management requirements. In this study, mathematical techniques used in capital budgeting problems are explored to solve the IT audit area selection problem. A DSS is developed which implements some of these mathematical techniques such as a linear programming model, greedy heuristic, improved greedy heuristic and evolutionary heuristic. The DSS also implements extensions to the standard capital budgeting model to make provision for special management requirements. The performance of the mathematical techniques in the DSS is tested by applying different decision rules to each of the techniques and comparing those results. The DSS, empirical experiments and results are also presented in this research study. Results have shown that in most cases a binary 0-1 model outperformed the other techniques. Internal audit management should therefore consider this model to assist with the construction of an IT internal audit plan. / MSc (Computer Science), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

This thesis reports the research efforts conducted in order to develop the Dynamic Response Recovery Tool. The DRRT was developed as a decision support tool under a holistic approach considering both emergency management research and transportation studies. The proposed system was assessed by a series of case studies in order to identify its efficiency and suitability for roading organisations. Knowledge developed from two novel research approaches are comprehensively described throughout the thesis. Initially, we report on the observation of three emergency exercises and two real events in New Zealand. This set of activities indicated the complex and dynamic environment in which emergency management takes place as well as organisational settings and management structures implemented to better respond and recover from disasters events. Additionally, a secondary approach was designed to overcome limitations identified in the observation method. In this context, a game-based scenario simulation was developed and conducted with twelve participants. With a focus in resource deployment decisions during emergencies, the game simulated an earthquake scenario in which participants had to allocate physical resources to fix damage created in a road network. Simulations indicated that Naturalistic Decision-making processes were used to respond to the scenario. Thus, resource allocation followed planning priorities defined previously the simulation, which further considered individual experiences and knowledge. Taking advantage from the findings achieved and knowledge developed by the observations and game simulations, the DRRT was designed using the conceptual background identified in the literature review. The DRRT was conceptualised as a logistics sub-system as part of the broad field of Disaster Management. In particular, the DRRT was geared towards supporting decision-making by providing procedural recommendations and identifying optimum physical deployment strategies. In order to assess the proposed system, an Information Technology application was built according to the DRRT’s specifications. A series of eleven individual and three group simulations was performed in order to assess the DRRT. Data collected through the application indicated that the DRRT enhanced decision-making during extreme events. In specific, case study participants using the system at greater levels achieved better decision-making accuracy than those disregarding completely or partially the system. Case studies also indicated that emergency management knowledge was represented by the application and its logistics model provided participants with vital information to optimise resource allocation.

Project risk management is a crucial activity in project management. Nowadays, projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. However, existing classical methods have limitations for modeling the real complexity of project risks. For example, some phenomena like chain reactions and loops are not properly taken into account. This Ph.D. thesis aims at analyzing propagation behavior in the project risk network through modelling risks and risk interactions. An integrated framework of decision support system is presented with a series of proposed methods. The construction of the project risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and the team of experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. Simulation techniques are used and several network theory-based methods are developed for analyzing and prioritizing project risks, with respect to their role and importance in the risk network in terms of various indicators. The proposed approach serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. These novel analyses provide project managers with improved insights on risks and risk interactions under complexity and help them to design more effective response actions. Considering resource constraints, a greedy algorithm and a genetic algorithm are developed to optimize the risk response plan and the allocation of budget reserves dedicated to the risk management. Two examples of application, 1) to a real musical staging project in the entertainment industry and 2) to a real urban transportation system implementation project, are presented to illustrate the utility of the proposed decision support system.

Land is a finite natural resource that is increasingly getting exhausted as a result of land contamination. Land is made up of soil and groundwater, both of which have many functions for which we depend on, including provision of food and water, supporting shelter, natural flood defence, carbon sequestration, etc. Contaminants in land also pose a number of threats to public health and the environment; other natural resources; and have detrimental effects on property such as buildings, crops and livestock. The most effective method of dealing with these contaminants is to cleanup and return the sites to beneficial use. The cleanup process involves making a choice from amongst competing remediation technologies, where the wrong choice may have disastrous economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Contaminated land management is therefore much broader than the selection and implementation of remedial solutions, and requires extensive data collection and analysis at huge costs and effort. The need for decision support in contaminated land management decision-making has long been widely recognised, and in recent years a large number of Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been developed. This thesis presents the development of a Web-based knowledge-based DSS as an integrated management framework for the risk assessment of human health from, and sustainable management of, contaminated land. The developed DSS is based on the current UK contaminated land regime, published guidelines and technical reports from the UK Environment Agency (EA) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and other Government agencies and departments. The decision-making process of the developed DSS comprises of key stages in the risk assessment and management of contaminated land: (i) preliminary qualitative risk assessment; (ii) generic quantitative risk assessment; and (iii) options appraisal of remediation technologies and remediation design. The developed DSS requires site specific details and measured contaminant concentrations from site samples as input and produces a site specific report as output. The DSS output is intended to be used as information to support with contaminated land management decision-making.

The operational management of Water Distribution Systems (WDS), particularly under failure conditions when the behaviour of a WDS is not well understood, is a challenging problem. The research presented in this thesis describes the development of a methodology for risk-based diagnostics of failures in WDS and its application in a near real-time Decision Support System (DSS) for WDS’ operation. In this thesis, the use of evidential reasoning to estimate the likely location of a burst pipe within a WDS by combining outputs of several models is investigated. A novel Dempster-Shafer model is developed, which fuses evidence provided by a pipe burst prediction model, a customer contact model and a hydraulic model to increase confidence in correctly locating a burst pipe. A new impact model, based on a pressure driven hydraulic solver coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to capture the adverse effects of failures from an operational perspective, is created. A set of Key Performance Indicators used to quantify impact, are aggregated according to the preferences of a Decision Maker (DM) using the Multi-Attribute Value Theory. The potential of distributed computing to deliver a near real-time performance of computationally expensive impact assessment is explored. A novel methodology to prioritise alarms (i.e., detected abnormal flow events) in a WDS is proposed. The relative significance of an alarm is expressed using a measure of an overall risk represented by a set of all potential incidents (e.g., pipe bursts), which might have caused it. The DM’s attitude towards risk is taken into account during the aggregation process. The implementation of the main constituents of the proposed risk-based pipe burst diagnostics methodology, which forms a key component of the aforementioned DSS prototype, are tested on a number of real life and semi-real case studies. The methodology has the potential to enable more informed decisions to be made in the near real-time failure management in WDS.

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / Each inventory manager at the Aviation Supply Office Philadelphia, PA is presently required to manage approximately 700 line items. To allow the inventory manager a more efficient method of reviewing and using the data and reports from the Uniform Inventory Control Point (UICP) computer system, a distributed computer system is necessary. By downloading the the appropriate inventory data from UICP to a local computer system, a decision support system (DSS) can be be implemented using existing off the shelf hardware and software. The ability to replace the present copious paper reports with concise computerized information and import that data into electronic spreadsheets for further analysis can greatly improve the inventory manager's effectiveness. To this end, this thesis provides inventory managers at ASO with access to the following functions: Interactive access to the main UICP database. The ability to use UICP data with a decision support system. A user interface that is easy to understand and learn. A local data base which supports working group requirements. Basic office automation. This thesis will cover the selection of the hardware and software, data identification and management and DSS development. A prototype system called the IM Workstation was developed for this thesis and used to produce the thesis document. COBOL and ALIS ELF macro program listings are provided. / http://archive.org/details/inventorymanager00mare / Lieutenant, United States Navy

Alguns dos problemas enfrentados pelas cidades que ainda sofrem com um crescimento rápido são, não raro, conseqüência da falta de políticas públicas que possam orientar o crescimento espacial de forma sustentável e com qualidade de vida. Há uma clara necessidade de instrumentos efetivos de controle e monitoramento da mobilidade urbana, bem como de políticas mais sustentáveis destinadas a orientar o crescimento e ordenamento espacial. Neste contexto, a elaboração de um sistema de suporte à decisão através de uma interface on-line pode proporcionar novas perspectivas para um planejamento da mobilidade mais participativo e sustentável. Assim, um dos objetivos desta pesquisa foi desenvolver uma ferramenta computacional destinada a promover um processo integrado e sustentável para elaboração e monitoramento de planos diretores de mobilidade urbana. A proposta focou no processo de tomada de decisão participativo envolvendo múltiplos segmentos da sociedade, sobretudo em cidades pequenas e médias. Outro objetivo foi verificar se, através da utilização do sistema proposto, os avaliadores (especialistas ou não-especialistas), modificariam significativamente seu nível de percepção com relação à mobilidade urbana. Para atingir a estes objetivos, a pesquisa foi dividida em duas fases. Inicialmente foi desenvolvido o sistema de suporte à decisão para internet, denominado PLANUTS - PLANejamento Urbano e de Transportes integrado e Sustentável. Este sistema é composto por quatro módulos de avaliação da mobilidade urbana e um módulo administrativo. O funcionamento da ferramenta proposta foi demonstrado, na prática, através de sua aplicação junto a um grupo de especialistas e não-especialistas em Bauru, cidade média localizada no estado de São Paulo, Brasil. Com a aplicação foi possível simular etapas do desenvolvimento de um plano diretor de transporte e mobilidade participativo, com a definição de indicadores de mobilidade. A aplicação também foi útil para demonstrar a contribuição do sistema na mudança de percepção dos usuários com relação a questões que envolvem aspectos da mobilidade. Os resultados obtidos conduziram às seguintes conclusões: i) o sistema PLANUTS pode contribuir para a participação de diferentes segmentos da sociedade no processo de avaliação da mobilidade urbana; ii) a utilização do sistema possibilita uma ampliação no conhecimento e definição dos temas que envolvem a mobilidade urbana; e iii) é possível definir um conjunto de indicadores representativos dos problemas mais importantes de mobilidade com vistas a um sistema de indicadores de mobilidade no município. / Some of the problems faced by fast growing cities are often a consequence of the lack of public policies able to drive the spatial growth towards sustainable development and a better quality of life. There is a clear need of more effective tools for urban mobility monitoring and control, as well as sustainable policies for guiding urban growth and spatial distribution. In such a context, the construction of a web-based decision support system can produce new perspectives for mobility planning in a more participative and sustainable way. Therefore, one of the objectives of this research was to develop a computational tool for promoting an integrated and sustainable process of construction and management of mobility master plans. The focus of the proposal was on a participative decision-making process involving multiple segments of the society, mainly of small and medium-sized cities. Another objective of the research was to test if the use of the proposed system could significantly change the perception level of the participants (experts or non-experts) regarding urban mobility. In order to reach the stated objectives, the research was conducted in two phases. The first step was the development of the internet-based decision support system named PLANUTS (which stands for PLANnig Urban and Transportation integrated and Sustainable systems). It comprises four modules for the evaluation of urban mobility and one administrative module. The use of the proposed tool was shown, in practice, through an application with a group of experts and another one of non-experts in Bauru, which is a medium-sized city located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The application made possible to simulate some steps of the development of a participative mobility master plan, with the definition of mobility indicators. It was also useful for showing the contribution of the system in changing the users\' perception regarding mobility issues. The results obtained led to the following conclusions: i) PLANUTS can be used to allow the participation of distinct segments of the society in the evaluation of urban mobility; ii) the use of the system brings an improvement in the definition of the Themes and to the overall knowledge of urban mobility; and iii) it is possible to define a set of indicators associated to the most important mobility problems in order to build a system of urban mobility indicators to the municipality.

A carência, absoluta ou relativa, de água direcionou diversas ações no sentido de amenizar esse problema. A política nacional de recursos hídricos (Lei 9.433/97), com seus cinco instrumentos de gestão e planejamento, pode ser considerada o principal marco. Entre esses instrumentos, encontra-se o sistema de informações, que tem por finalidade coletar, armazenar e disponibilizar dados para uma gestão racional. É nesse âmbito e no sentido de contribuir para a evolução desses sistemas, que se apresenta essa tese de doutoramento. O tema principal trata da implementação de um sistema de suporte a decisões – SSD com base nos conceitos da programação orientada a objetos – POO, forma esta de programação que procura representar os sistemas por meio de classes de maneira a buscar a semelhança à realidade. Esse SSD, denominado de ARENA (análise de recursos naturais), é composto de um sistema de informações geográficas – SIG, dois simuladores (simulação do fluxo de águas subterrâneas e do ciclo hidrológico superficial), uma base de dados georeferenciada e módulos de acesso aos dados. A forma como os simuladores foram implementados, baseado em conceitos da POO e suas integrações às entidades geométricas do SIG, é apresentada como contribuição. No ARENA, o SIG não é apenas utilizado nas fases de pré e pós-processamento de dados para modelos, e sim no processo de simulação. Aplicações do ARENA a uma bacia hidrográfica (escoamento superficial) e a dois sistemas hipotéticos (escoamento subterrâneo) são apresentados ao final do trabalho. A maneira como esse SSD foi implementado induz ao desenvolvimento de simuladores adicionais sem realizar modificações nos pacotes já implementados neste trabalho, sendo facilitada a utilização dos pacotes que compõem esse SSD / The relative or complete lack of water has been directing various actions in order to solve this problem. The national water resources politic (Law 9.433/97) with its five instruments for water resources planning and management can be considered the main action. Among these instruments, it is found the information system that has as purpose to collect, store and turn it into available data to the rational management. In this scope and in order to give some contributions to the improvement of these systems, this Ph.D. thesis is presented. The main topic deals with the decision support system (DSS) implementation based on oriented object – OO, a kind of programming which tries to represent systems through classes very closely to the reality. This DSS, called ARENA (análise de recursos naturais, in Portuguese), is made up of a geographic information system (GIS), two models (a groundwater model and a distributed rainfall-runoff model), a georeferenced database and graphic user interfaces (GUI). The way the models were built, based on OO concepts and its integration to GIS geographic data, is presented as contribution. In the ARENA, the GIS is not only used in the pre and post processing steps, but also in the simulation. The ARENA applications were carried out for two examples, a watershed (surface water simulation) and a hypothetic system (groundwater simulation), both presented in the end of this study. The way this DSS was built induces to the development of other models without modifications in the existing packages, so that the development of new applications becomes easy because the use of existing packages that made this DSS up

O problema de escassez da água para o abastecimento humano vem se agravando a cada ano que passa. As demandas vem crescendo e precisam ser supridas da melhor maneira possível sob pena de limitar o processo de desenvolvimento regional. Para tanto, deve-se recorrer ao planejamento e gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos como forma de se promover ao seu uso racional. Descreve-se neste trabalho a implantação de um sistema de apoio ao planejamento e gerenciamento de recursos hídricos, dando uma maior ênfase ao modelo hidrológico distribuído utilizado para gerar as vazões na bacia hidrográfica. Avalia-se sua calibração e validação realizada com dados fluviométricos e de níveis de açudes. Apresentam-se os resultados de estudo de potencialidade da bacia hidrográfica, e por último as disponibilidades dos principais açudes. Todas estas etapas formam realizadas tendo sempre a visão especializada e integrada da bacia hidrográfica do rio do Peixe. / The problem of scarcity of water for human supply has increased each year. The needs have increased and must be fullfilled as satisfactory as possible. If not the development process ofthe region could be limited. In this way, we must use the planning and management of water resources to promote a rational use. This dissertation describes the implantation of a support system to the planning and management of water resources, focusing the hydrologic distributed model used to generate the inflows in the basin. The calibration and validation processes with sets of data formed by gauge stream go stations and reservoir levels are analyzed. The results of a study of the potentiality of the basin, and finally the availability of the mains reservoirs are presented. All this steps were made with a specialized and integrated view of the Peixe river basin.