System Dynamics Model follow the procedure for ¡§data collecting ¡÷ model design ¡÷ analysis ¡÷ modification¡¨ to analyze problems on a project by project base; however, this process is just a principle report and it cannot directly and continuously affect business decision. Furthermore, after the completion of each project, data often is locked in the file room and cannot be reused. If simulation tools of System Dynamics allow user to connect the dynamics data source from the enterprise, potential benefits will be: 1. After analysis, with business data, model can be simulated time after time. This enable the repeating use of previous investment. 2. Decision makers can simulated condition of the future use the enterprise online data . The main purpose of this research at probe interaction of System Dynamics Model and data source. Under above-mentioned structure. In the phase, we propose to add a ¡§Data Source¡¨ component in traditional structure of the System Dynamics model. The new component will connected model and data source, and keep the independent executed of the model. And in addition to the design of the structure of the model, this research also according to the structure, design physical simulation tools ¡V we call the tool Maria. Maria can provide the function of building and simulating System Dynamics model like the traditional simulate tool, and connect model and dynamic data source. We use a simple model to prove the value of System Dynamics model and data source, and the future prospect of the structure.

In an event of environmental impact assessment (EIA), encouraging public participation is particular important during the process of open deliberation attributed to the following reasons. First, people may contribute vital environment information to support decision making for the authority in charge. Secondly, through the process of participation, not only satisfying the right of "be aware" for people but establishing the consensus toward a feasible alternative in advance. In the past several years, Decision Support Systems (DSS), through the integration of human intelligence and software engineering, has been widely used to solve semi-structure or ill-structure problems. Nevertheless, DDS is designed for single user. In most situations involving many stockholders, a decision may not be made simply by a single person but by a group of people after reaching some agreement. It is therefore important to develop Group Decision Support System (GDSS) to deal with such problems. The current research employs the concept of GDSS and develops the prototype of a GDSS for promoting "public participation" in EIA. Such system fully integrates various techniques to cover "Delphi", "Certainty Factor", and "3D Geographic Information System (GIS)". "Delphi" is used as the mechanism to facilitate the reduction of dissentient view, while "Certainty Factor" offers an easy yet effective approach to evaluate public opinion under a multi-criteria decision making environment. Finally people can visualize the future landscape of all alternatives with the virtual scene generated by 3D GIS. To make the general public aware the EIA related information, the GDSS also takes full advantage of the Internet to deliver message in multimedia form. The case study to demonstrate the usage of such GDSS is the transportation project of building a sightseeing cross-harbor cable car between Mt. qi-hou and Mt. shou. Through using the GDSS by the stockholders, more people are willing to take part in EIA and thus put "public participation" in practice. In consequence, the authority in charge of EIA may make more appropriate decision in light of the results from public participation.

The purpose of this study is to design, develop, and evaluate a prototype scenarioassisted decision support system (DSS) for use in venture and alternative assessment during the predevelopment stage of income-producing real estate development. This research examines theoretical underpinnings and associated advancements related to income-producing real estate development and decision support systems. Particular emphasis was placed on synthesis of relating disciplines?? models and advancements that support design and development of the decision support system. The result of the system design and development are embodied in a prototype scenario-assisted decision support system for income-producing real estate development (DSSVenture). The design and development of the program are documented in this dissertation. Following the design and development stage, the validation of DSSVenture??s data and logic models was conducted based on two case studies from well-known real estate development publications. The system was then tested on a group of graduate students who enrolled in an advanced real estate development course at Texas A&M University to examine whether its facilitation objective had been achieved. Since this research hypothesized that the decision support system would facilitate developers?? decision making during predevelopment stage of income-producing real estate development, three operational variables were tested, namely number of alternatives examined, time to reach decisions, and coefficient of projected net present value variations. The testing results indicate that DSSVenture system significantly enhances comprehensiveness of the decision context by increasing the number of alternatives for developers. Since the use of the system significantly reduces developers?? time to reach decisions, the efficiency of decision making is improved. Finally, the results of the study confirm that the use of DSSVenture system substantially diminishes variation of profit projection among decision makers. Therefore, the facilitation objective is achieved.

When referring physicians decide to refer their patients to specialist care, they rarely, if ever, make a referral decision with the benefit of having access to all of the desirable information. It is therefore highly unlikely that the referring physician will make the optimal choice of specialist for that particular referral. A specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed to guarantee that the “right specialist” for each patient’s referral was chosen. The specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed based on feedback from over 120 users of the e-referral program. The developed algorithm was simulated, tested, and validated in MATLAB. Results from the MATLAB simulation demonstrate that the algorithm functioned as it was designed to. The developed algorithm provides referring physicians with an unprecedented level of support for their decision of which specialist to refer their patient to.

When referring physicians decide to refer their patients to specialist care, they rarely, if ever, make a referral decision with the benefit of having access to all of the desirable information. It is therefore highly unlikely that the referring physician will make the optimal choice of specialist for that particular referral. A specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed to guarantee that the “right specialist” for each patient’s referral was chosen. The specialist selection optimization algorithm was developed based on feedback from over 120 users of the e-referral program. The developed algorithm was simulated, tested, and validated in MATLAB. Results from the MATLAB simulation demonstrate that the algorithm functioned as it was designed to. The developed algorithm provides referring physicians with an unprecedented level of support for their decision of which specialist to refer their patient to.

Declines and extinctions of amphibian populations are a global dilemma with complex local causes, which should be viewed in the context of a much larger biodiversity crisis. As other animal groups, amphibians with restricted distributions, such as island endemics, are thought to be more vulnerable to environmental change and susceptible to population declines. In the New Zealand archipelago, the only four native species of frogs (Leiopelma hochstetteri, L. archeyi, L. hamiltoni and L. pakeka) are classified as threatened. In particular Leiopelma hochstetteri, the most widespread and abundant endemic frog species in New Zealand, now survives only in spatially fragmented populations as a result of direct or indirect human activity. Hence, it is recognised as threatened and fully protected by legislation. In the last fifty years, some L. hochstetteri populations have been studied, providing descriptive information, which may be used to assess the current status (increasing, stable or declining) of previously or never monitored populations. This thesis examines the diet and trophic level, the effects ship rats (Rattus rattus) as well as the distribution and abundance of L. hochstetteri on a habitat-use context, to provide a basis for evaluating conceivable decline-agents, and to establish a platform to design directed conservation strategies. The Waitakere Ranges are considered a Leiopelma hochstetteri conservation management unit, on which L. hochstetteri has been previously studied. This area consists of a series of hills that run roughly north–south, which are mostly covered in regenerating indigenous vegetation. Today, 60% of the Waitakere Ranges fall within a Regional Park, which together with its surrounding residential areas is afforded protection to minimise the effects of development on the region. The accessibility and conservation character of this area makes it an ideal area for the study of L. hochstetteri populations. As a first step to characterise the diet and trophic level of L. hochstetteri within streams in the Waitakere Ranges, Auckland, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were undertaken on a variety of sympatric terrestrial and aquatic plant and animal species, including adult frogs. These results showed that: 1) aquatic and terrestrial food webs were linked by terrestrial inputs into the stream; 2) invertebrate and vertebrate predators separated well into distinct trophic groups; and 3) L. hochstetteri occupied an intermediate trophic position among predators, with a diet, at least as an adult, comprising terrestrial invertebrates. Shortfin eels and banded kokopu were identified as potential predators of L. hochstetteri, but data for rats were inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these trophic studies, with regard to the effects of ship rats on L. hochstetteri populations, lead me to evaluate the influence of a seven-year ship rat management operation on frog abundance. To achieve a reliable evaluation, the habitat characteristics that had significant influence on frog abundance were identified. Then, it was confirmed that the study areas represented similar habitats in terms of those variables, and finally the effect of the pest-management activities was evaluated. Presence/absence of pest-management operations did not have a significant effect on frog abundance. These results, together with the results of the diet and trophic level analyses, suggested that ship rats do not represent a significant threat for this frog species, at least in the Waitakere Ranges. The results of distribution and abundance investigations indicated that in the Waitakere Ranges frogs are currently widely distributed, relatively abundant and that recruitment has occurred at least in the last ten years. Additionally, in order to identify associations between habitat characteristics and frog distribution and abundance, reliable and specifically designed monitoring methodologies were developed. Although this frog is known to occur in wet areas adjacent to shaded streams in forested catchments, quantitative ecological data previously did not exist to enable characterisation of its habitat. Here, novel data were reported on the current distribution and habitat requirements of this species in the Waitakere Ranges. Statistical modelling demonstrates frogs most likely occur in small, erosive streams with coarse substrates and cold waters, surrounded by mature or undisturbed riparian vegetation, where higher abundances of frogs may be found in steep areas with stable patches of cobbles and boulders lying against larger stream bed elements within the stream channel. Anthropogenic activities, such as clearing or logging, and upstream disturbances that potentially increase silt input into streams were identified as threats to these frog species. Finally, the habitat-use information gathered during this investigation was utilised to develop a spatial decision support system (SDSS) as a tool to assess the quality and quantity of habitat available to L. hochstetteri populations associated with the Auckland Region. These results have important implications for the conservation of New Zealand native frog species and riparian stream habitat.

Declines and extinctions of amphibian populations are a global dilemma with complex local causes, which should be viewed in the context of a much larger biodiversity crisis. As other animal groups, amphibians with restricted distributions, such as island endemics, are thought to be more vulnerable to environmental change and susceptible to population declines. In the New Zealand archipelago, the only four native species of frogs (Leiopelma hochstetteri, L. archeyi, L. hamiltoni and L. pakeka) are classified as threatened. In particular Leiopelma hochstetteri, the most widespread and abundant endemic frog species in New Zealand, now survives only in spatially fragmented populations as a result of direct or indirect human activity. Hence, it is recognised as threatened and fully protected by legislation. In the last fifty years, some L. hochstetteri populations have been studied, providing descriptive information, which may be used to assess the current status (increasing, stable or declining) of previously or never monitored populations. This thesis examines the diet and trophic level, the effects ship rats (Rattus rattus) as well as the distribution and abundance of L. hochstetteri on a habitat-use context, to provide a basis for evaluating conceivable decline-agents, and to establish a platform to design directed conservation strategies. The Waitakere Ranges are considered a Leiopelma hochstetteri conservation management unit, on which L. hochstetteri has been previously studied. This area consists of a series of hills that run roughly north–south, which are mostly covered in regenerating indigenous vegetation. Today, 60% of the Waitakere Ranges fall within a Regional Park, which together with its surrounding residential areas is afforded protection to minimise the effects of development on the region. The accessibility and conservation character of this area makes it an ideal area for the study of L. hochstetteri populations. As a first step to characterise the diet and trophic level of L. hochstetteri within streams in the Waitakere Ranges, Auckland, stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses were undertaken on a variety of sympatric terrestrial and aquatic plant and animal species, including adult frogs. These results showed that: 1) aquatic and terrestrial food webs were linked by terrestrial inputs into the stream; 2) invertebrate and vertebrate predators separated well into distinct trophic groups; and 3) L. hochstetteri occupied an intermediate trophic position among predators, with a diet, at least as an adult, comprising terrestrial invertebrates. Shortfin eels and banded kokopu were identified as potential predators of L. hochstetteri, but data for rats were inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these trophic studies, with regard to the effects of ship rats on L. hochstetteri populations, lead me to evaluate the influence of a seven-year ship rat management operation on frog abundance. To achieve a reliable evaluation, the habitat characteristics that had significant influence on frog abundance were identified. Then, it was confirmed that the study areas represented similar habitats in terms of those variables, and finally the effect of the pest-management activities was evaluated. Presence/absence of pest-management operations did not have a significant effect on frog abundance. These results, together with the results of the diet and trophic level analyses, suggested that ship rats do not represent a significant threat for this frog species, at least in the Waitakere Ranges. The results of distribution and abundance investigations indicated that in the Waitakere Ranges frogs are currently widely distributed, relatively abundant and that recruitment has occurred at least in the last ten years. Additionally, in order to identify associations between habitat characteristics and frog distribution and abundance, reliable and specifically designed monitoring methodologies were developed. Although this frog is known to occur in wet areas adjacent to shaded streams in forested catchments, quantitative ecological data previously did not exist to enable characterisation of its habitat. Here, novel data were reported on the current distribution and habitat requirements of this species in the Waitakere Ranges. Statistical modelling demonstrates frogs most likely occur in small, erosive streams with coarse substrates and cold waters, surrounded by mature or undisturbed riparian vegetation, where higher abundances of frogs may be found in steep areas with stable patches of cobbles and boulders lying against larger stream bed elements within the stream channel. Anthropogenic activities, such as clearing or logging, and upstream disturbances that potentially increase silt input into streams were identified as threats to these frog species. Finally, the habitat-use information gathered during this investigation was utilised to develop a spatial decision support system (SDSS) as a tool to assess the quality and quantity of habitat available to L. hochstetteri populations associated with the Auckland Region. These results have important implications for the conservation of New Zealand native frog species and riparian stream habitat.

Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) have evolved from traditional video games in that they embrace both the technology of the Internet and video games. The massive “exodus” from the physical offline world to online gaming communities brings with it not only a number of unique and exciting opportunities, but also a number of emerging and serious risks. This research set out to examine the unique opportunities and risks to vulnerable individuals, namely, young adults, teenagers and young children; all of whom are considered by many to be priority groups in the protection from harm. The purpose was to examine the reality of vulnerable individuals encountering these opportunities and risks. This research combined a number of methodologies supported by underpinning qualitative and quantitative theories. Questionnaires, semi-structured interviews and focus groups gathered information from teenagers, adults and children in order to critically examine the unique opportunities and risks encountered in Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games. The findings from these interactions identified specific examples of opportunities and risk posed to vulnerable individuals. The findings demonstrated that there was a need for a support and protection mechanism that promoted the identification and awareness of the potential risk among vulnerable individuals. Emerging from these findings was a set of concepts that provided the evidence base for a Novel Taxonomy of Opportunities and Risks in Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game environments that was designed to assist in the assessment of risk. Validation of the proposed taxonomy was achieved by means of an ethnographic study of (World of Warcraft) online gamers’ behaviour and social interactions through unobtrusive video capture of gaming sessions. The Novel Taxonomy of Opportunities and Risks provided a basis for the development of a proof-of-concept Decision Support System; the purpose of which was to assist both social work practitioners and individuals to identify and reduce risks. Representatives from both user groups were consulted for evaluation of the acceptability of such an approach. Favourable responses from participants demonstrated acceptability of the aforementioned approach. The evaluation process also demonstrated how the prototype would serve as a useful tool to make individual users aware of potential dangers. This research presents three novel facets: (1) it advances understanding of the unique opportunities and risks within MMORPG environments; (2) provides a framework for the assessment of risks in MMORPGs through the Novel Taxonomy and (3) demonstrates a novel Decision Support System to assist in the identification and reduction of risk through a proof-of-concept prototype.

Poisonings account for 0.8% of emergency room visits each year. Our review of current toxicological resources revealed a gap in their ability to provide expedient calculations and recommendations, as they are broad in scope and time-consuming to read. Time is crucial in a toxicologic emergency. Delay in first dose can lead to life-threatening sequelae. To bridge the gap, we developed the Antidote Application (AA), a computational system that automatically provides patient-specific antidote treatment recommendation(s) and individualized dose calculation(s). We implemented 27 algorithms that describe FDA approved use and evidence-based practices found in primary literature for the treatment of common toxin exposure. The AA covers 29 antidotes recommended by Poison Control and toxicology experts, 31 toxins from 19 toxin classes, and over 200 toxic entities. We implemented the AA in two formats: a standalone downloadable application for offline use and an online web application. The AA represents a unique educational resource for the study of toxicology with the potential of being adopted for point of care decision support. The system also provides guidance for reporting toxic exposures regionally and nationally as required by accrediting bodies and some states. The AA system has the potential for reducing initial dose delays and medication errors. To the best of our knowledge, the AA is the first educational and decision support system in toxicology that provides patient-specific treatment recommendations and drug dose calculations. The downloadable and online Antidote Applications are publically available at http://www.met-hilab.org/files/antidote/antidote_application.jar and http://projects.met-hilab.org/antidote/ respectively.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-08Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T21:00:25Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 almeida_r_me_guara.pdf: 1434970 bytes, checksum: a45e1def677af7ba7d2da134164d54f6 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Este trabalho aborda o problema de identificação dos efeitos causados por eventuais falhas no abastecimento de certos materiais ou equipamentos na linha de montagem de aeronaves. Tal problema consiste em avaliar se o atraso na disponibilidade de um determinado material pode ser absorvido pela flexibilidade existente na rede de atividades da produção. Dessa forma, foi desenvolvido um sistema de apoio à decisão para o planejamento e controle da produção, utilizando simulação de eventos discretos para avaliar se o sincronismo entre os elos da cadeia produtiva está se comportando a contento e, em caso negativo, disponibilizar informações para as correções necessárias. A grande dificuldade na modelagem do sistema está na necessidade de integração de uma complexa cadeia de suprimentos a uma grande rede de atividades necessárias à manufatura das aeronaves. Apesar da complexidade, o sistema criado é capaz de identificar antecipadamente o impacto causado na montagem pelos insumos atrasados, além de prover uma visão de quais materiais, e respectivos fornecedores, apresentam um atraso que não pode ser absorvido pelo sistema, o que facilitaria o trabalho dos gestores da cadeia de suprimentos para aumentar a robustez do sistema. / This work approaches the effects identification of problems caused by eventual fails in the provisioning of material or equipments in one assembly line of aircrafts. Such problem consists in evaluating if a delay in the availability of a material can be absorbed by the flexibility in the activities network of the production. This way, a decision support system was developed to support the planning and control of the production, using systems simulation, to evaluate if the synchronism among the links of the productive chain is behaving as necessary; in negative case, the system must to provide information for manager’s action. The great difficulty to produce a model of this system is about the necessary integration of a complex supply chain to a big activities network associate to aircrafts manufacture. In spite of that complexity, the system developed is able to identify the impact caused in the assembly line by each late input, providing a vision of which materials, and respective suppliers, have a delay that cannot be absorbed by the production line. So, this research looks for facilitate the manager works in to increase the system robustness.