Thesis (Ph. D.)--Florida State University, 2006. / Advisor: Thomas M. Carsey, Florida State University, College of Social Sciences, Dept. of Political Science. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed June 14, 2006). Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 167 pages. Includes bibliographical references.

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Thesis (M.P.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1996. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 112-117). Also available in print.

The thesis of this paper is that the evolution of the black vote from Republicanism to the Democratic Party was determined by several causes, and these are the subjects of my paper. Following Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation and the end of the Civil War, African Americans in the United States joined the Republican Party and by and large voted for Republican candidates, both in the North and South. Following the end of Reconstruction in 1876, the pressures or renewal of social conservatism, Southern localism, and the re-emergence of so-called “Calhoun” politics, along with main spread interference with African-American voting, all combined to establish the beginnings of a transition from Republican Party affiliation to increasing membership in the Democratic Party.

published_or_final_version / Politics and Public Administration / Master / Master of Philosophy

This study is a chronicle of the efforts of R. Walton Moore and the Roosevelt Administration to liberalize the conservative Virginia Democratic Party during the 1930's. Moore was an elderly politician and amateur historian who had been in and out politics in the state for over forty years. He was opposed at every turn in his efforts by state Democratic Party organization leader Senator Harry F. Byrd, and his conservative colleague Senator Carter Glass. Both Glass and Byrd opposed most New Deal legislation throughout the decade. Moore served officially as Assistant Secretary of State and Counselor to the State Department, but his unofficial role was an advocate for Virginia's anti-organization Democrats. These Democrats were generally supportive of the New Deal and its programs, but wielded little political power because of the tight control with which Byrd and Glass distributed patronage. This essay traces Moore's three major efforts to align the Democratic Party in the Old Dominion closer to the Roosevelt Administration.

In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published The Emerging Democratic Majority, a book that postulated that the United States was in the beginning of a political realignment that would spell the end of the Reagan-era coalition that gave Republicans an electoral advantage on the presidency. The authors claimed an electorate that would favor the Democratic Party would emerge to take its place. Since Senator Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 presidential election was powered by a coalition that looked much like the one Judis and Teixeira described, it appeared the authors’ thesis was being borne out by actual election results. However, the events of the 2000s and early 2010s have lent both credibility and doubt to this possible realignment, and have drawn attention to the problems of regular realignment theory. Exploring the premise laid out by Judis and Teixeira from their work, The Emerging Democratic Majority, as well as observations about the changing composition of the American electorate, I analyze key groups in the American electorate to determine if these groups are trending more Democratic in presidential and congressional races since the 1988 presidential election. Findings showed several of these groups regularly supported Democratic candidates but did not consistently trend to the Democrats from year to year. Changes across time often depended on match-ups of nonconsecutive years, with Democrats in the year 2008 drawing especially strong support from hypothesized voter groups. While Democrats can count on the support of groups such as voters who achieve high levels of college education or voters with secular outlooks on life, their success still depends highly on candidate quality and advantage on issues and cannot be taken for granted.

A tese aqui exposta dedica-se ao estudo e à maior compreensão da política norte-americana. Mais especificamente, dedica-se ao estudo da suposta polarização partidária e ascensão conservadora Republicana no período recente. Tratados como fato pela literatura especializada, o estudo aqui feito trata esses dois fenômenos como hipóteses a serem testadas. Desse modo, por meio de uma maior apreensão do que se entende por ideologias políticas como Conservadorismo e Liberalismo no contexto dos Estados Unidos, bem como de uma metodologia que privilegia o uso de plataformas nacionais como indicativo de retrato ideológico partidário; esse estudo busca evidenciar empiricamente aproximações e/ou distanciamentos entre os partidos políticos e, consequentemente, a ascensão ou o declínio de ideologias tal como o Conservadorismo no que tange ao Partido Rebublicano. Através de indicadores de gradação, rede e frequência de palavras a partir das plataformas nacionais de ambos os partidos políticos (Democrata e Republicano) no período entre 1936 a 2012; se busca evidenciar de modo mais empírico esses dois fenômenos. Os resultados nos indicam que, de fato, há uma polarização partidária no período recente; no entanto, essa não é única na história desse país. Da mesma forma, percebe-se que há uma ascensão conservadora por parte do Partido Republicano, sobretudo no que diz respeito a certas categorias de análise tal como as questões sociais. / The work exposed here is dedicated to the study and to a greater understanding of the North-American politics. More specifically, intends to study the suposedly recent party polarization and Republican conservative ascendancy. Treated as a fact by the specialized literature, the study here done treats these two phenomena as hypothesis to be tested. As such, through a greater understanding of ideologies such as Conservatism and Liberalism in the context of the United States, as well as a methodology that favors the use of national platforms as an indicative of party ideological portrait; this work seeks to empirically evidence points of similiarities and differences between the political parties and, as a consequence, the ascent or decline of ideologies such as Conservatism in reference to the Republican Party. Through indicators of gradation, wordtree and word frequency from the national platforms of the two political parties (Democratic and Republican) between 1936 and 2012; this work seeks to evidence in a more empirical way these two phenomena. The results show us that, indeed, there is a party polarization in the recent period; nevertheless, this is not the only one in the history of this country. In the same way, it can be perceived that there is a conservative ascendancy by the Republican Party, especially when dealing with some categories of analysis such as social policies.