The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend. (authors' abstract)

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / One of the population structures associated with demographic dividend is “demographic transition”, which is a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. It is understood that low dependency ratio (shows that there are relatively more adults of working age who can support the young and the old of the populace) is one major factor in achieving a successful demographic dividend (DD) (Esther, 2013). DD refers to the fast-economic growth that is achieved by a country when there are dependency ratios. This definition means that the proportion of people of working age group (15-64) is higher, compared to those of ages lower than 15 and above 64 years (Statistics SA, 2017). / 2022

Na atualidade existe uma necessidade de repensar políticas voltadas para o desenvolvimento devido a que o milagre resgitrado por os baby boomers no século passado começa a desaparecer. Por isto, o objetivo deste trabalho é medir o impacto econômico e demográfico dos elderly boomers sobre o crescimento económico, adicionando duas variáveis na equação geral de Solow- Swan. Além disso, medir o impacto da participação das mulheres na força de trabalho como uma das fontes possível para mitigar este declínio (separado por edade e sexo). Os principais ressultados foram: que evidenciá-se una redução do 34% no crecimento explicado pelo factor puramente demográfico (força laboral) em relação com o abservado nos anos 80-90. Evidenciáse também para o grupo de mulheres maiores de 25+ que tem um coeficiente negativo -0,24 (cresciemnto taxa de emprego) sobre o crescimento econômico (PIB per-capita), isto deve-se a que embora as mulheres tenham um maior crescimento em sua força laboral do que os homens, as mulheres empregadas não cresce na mesma proporção, isto em grande parte pela fraqueça institucional e ausência apertura econômica ainda na maioria dos países. / At present there is a necessity to rethink development policies because the miracle registered by the baby boomers in the last century begins to disappear. For this reason, the objective of this work is to measure economic and demographic impact of elderly boomers on economic growth by adding two variables in the general Solow-Swan equation. Also, measuring the impact of women participation in the workforce as one of the possible ways to mitigate this decline (disaggregate by sex and age). The main results were: a 34% reduction in growth explained by the purely demographic factor (labor force) in relation to the observed in the years 80-90. To group of women over 25+ who have a negative coefficient -0.24 (growth rate of employment) on economic growth (GDP per-capita), this is due to the fact that although women have a higher labor force growth than men, the number of women employments do not increase in the same proportion, this is largely due to institutional weakness and lack of economic openness in most countries.

In the last thirty years an increasing number of governments are taking an interest in the growth rate and age structure of their populations. The chief concern among advanced economies is that pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems for the elderly will be unsustainable as the ratio of younger workers to older beneficiaries shrinks from aging populations. Resistance to reforms such as reduced or delayed benefits, or higher taxes has focused attention on a third option, growing the working-age population. There is a growing consensus on the economic benefits of population growth, a reversal from the 1960s through 80s. Governments try to grow the population through incentives for more children and/or accepting more immigrants. This report compares the population policies of Singapore, the United States, France, and Japan to analyze governments' motives and policy outcomes. Middle-income nations like China and Brazil can learn from the experiences of developed nations to avoid the same predicament in the future. Each government's mix of fertility incentives, immigrants, and guest workers is a product of their economic and political circumstances. The surest way to grow the population, accepting immigrants, is usually the least popular. The most popular is the most unproven, providing benefits for larger families. There is no consensus what the most effective fertility incentives are. Population policy has never been just about the economy, it is steeped in political and cultural visions. Shedding that political baggage is a prerequisite to a more rational, sustainable policy approach to demography. / text

Na atualidade existe uma necessidade de repensar políticas voltadas para o desenvolvimento devido a que o milagre resgitrado por os baby boomers no século passado começa a desaparecer. Por isto, o objetivo deste trabalho é medir o impacto econômico e demográfico dos elderly boomers sobre o crescimento económico, adicionando duas variáveis na equação geral de Solow- Swan. Além disso, medir o impacto da participação das mulheres na força de trabalho como uma das fontes possível para mitigar este declínio (separado por edade e sexo). Os principais ressultados foram: que evidenciá-se una redução do 34% no crecimento explicado pelo factor puramente demográfico (força laboral) em relação com o abservado nos anos 80-90. Evidenciáse também para o grupo de mulheres maiores de 25+ que tem um coeficiente negativo -0,24 (cresciemnto taxa de emprego) sobre o crescimento econômico (PIB per-capita), isto deve-se a que embora as mulheres tenham um maior crescimento em sua força laboral do que os homens, as mulheres empregadas não cresce na mesma proporção, isto em grande parte pela fraqueça institucional e ausência apertura econômica ainda na maioria dos países. / At present there is a necessity to rethink development policies because the miracle registered by the baby boomers in the last century begins to disappear. For this reason, the objective of this work is to measure economic and demographic impact of elderly boomers on economic growth by adding two variables in the general Solow-Swan equation. Also, measuring the impact of women participation in the workforce as one of the possible ways to mitigate this decline (disaggregate by sex and age). The main results were: a 34% reduction in growth explained by the purely demographic factor (labor force) in relation to the observed in the years 80-90. To group of women over 25+ who have a negative coefficient -0.24 (growth rate of employment) on economic growth (GDP per-capita), this is due to the fact that although women have a higher labor force growth than men, the number of women employments do not increase in the same proportion, this is largely due to institutional weakness and lack of economic openness in most countries.

Na atualidade existe uma necessidade de repensar políticas voltadas para o desenvolvimento devido a que o milagre resgitrado por os baby boomers no século passado começa a desaparecer. Por isto, o objetivo deste trabalho é medir o impacto econômico e demográfico dos elderly boomers sobre o crescimento económico, adicionando duas variáveis na equação geral de Solow- Swan. Além disso, medir o impacto da participação das mulheres na força de trabalho como uma das fontes possível para mitigar este declínio (separado por edade e sexo). Os principais ressultados foram: que evidenciá-se una redução do 34% no crecimento explicado pelo factor puramente demográfico (força laboral) em relação com o abservado nos anos 80-90. Evidenciáse também para o grupo de mulheres maiores de 25+ que tem um coeficiente negativo -0,24 (cresciemnto taxa de emprego) sobre o crescimento econômico (PIB per-capita), isto deve-se a que embora as mulheres tenham um maior crescimento em sua força laboral do que os homens, as mulheres empregadas não cresce na mesma proporção, isto em grande parte pela fraqueça institucional e ausência apertura econômica ainda na maioria dos países. / At present there is a necessity to rethink development policies because the miracle registered by the baby boomers in the last century begins to disappear. For this reason, the objective of this work is to measure economic and demographic impact of elderly boomers on economic growth by adding two variables in the general Solow-Swan equation. Also, measuring the impact of women participation in the workforce as one of the possible ways to mitigate this decline (disaggregate by sex and age). The main results were: a 34% reduction in growth explained by the purely demographic factor (labor force) in relation to the observed in the years 80-90. To group of women over 25+ who have a negative coefficient -0.24 (growth rate of employment) on economic growth (GDP per-capita), this is due to the fact that although women have a higher labor force growth than men, the number of women employments do not increase in the same proportion, this is largely due to institutional weakness and lack of economic openness in most countries.

The demographic transition led to an added productivity commonly referred to as the demographic divided, which resulted in high rates of economic growth in most of the world. The general consensus is that the increased pace of economic growth was attained largely thanks to changes in population age structure. However, the literature contains evidence that the population structure does not have a significant impact on economic growth and that improvements in education attainment have in fact been responsible for the high rates of economic growth. These claims are in contradiction with most of the literature and can have important implications for future research and policy making. Since these claims have not been, to the best of our knowledge, verified, this thesis aims to replicate the original research using newer and more suitable data for a higher number of countries. In addition to the original research, analysis is also performed on various subsamples based on governance and cultural indicators. The level and the change in education attainment did not appear statistically significant in most of the regressions, so the claims could not be proved or disproved. However, important insights about the role of not only population structure and labor force participation in explaining economic growth were...

A statement of Harvard economists about the impact of demographic variables on the East Asian economic growth, often called "economic miracle", raised many discussions about the sources of economic growth. In this work, I focus on the historical development of the mainstream opinions on the field of demographic-economic relations and the role of the demographic characteristics in the economic growth models. This paper uses graphics tools to analyse the changes in mortality, fertility, dependecy ratios and age structures in four Asian countries (Hongkong, Singapore, South Korea and Japan). These demographics values prepared the basis for their rapid economic development. I compare empirical results of Kelley and Schmidt model, Bloom model and Mishra model to make a conclusion of what is the impact of demographic variables on the economic growth and how they contribute to the total economic growth. Finally, I draw the attention to the macroeconomic interventions with detailed focus on domestic savings, labour market flexibility and human capital investments.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil / One of the population structures associated with demographic dividend is “demographic transition”, which is a shift from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality. It is understood that low dependency ratio (shows that there are relatively more adults of working age who can support the young and the old of the populace) is one major factor in achieving a successful demographic dividend (DD) (Esther, 2013). DD refers to the fast-economic growth that is achieved by a country when there are dependency ratios. This definition means that the proportion of people of working age group (15-64) is higher, compared to those of ages lower than 15 and above 64 years (Statistics SA, 2017). In addition, having a large proportion of working age people does not necessarily guarantee a successful demographic dividend. There are certain conditions to support a successful DD. According to Dewald Van Rensburg, 2017, South Africa is almost done with the achievement of demographic transition. These does not guarantee a successful demographic dividend. This study will therefore look at socio-economic conditions in support of a demographic dividend, because most of the working age people are still not employed, therefore are not productive enough to contribute to the economic growth. Socio economic conditions include (favorable labor market, economic growth, good governance, education and training, health care, family planning and gender equity) (StatsSA, 2017). These conditions if well-established will lead to a reduction of unemployment and therefore result in more labor resources becoming available to devote to production. Since many people entering working age find it difficult to get employment. Statistics South Africa shows that 38.2% of youth were unemployed in the first quarter of 2018 (Statistic South Africa, 2018), this study will have a close look at South African youth unemployment in relation to the demographic characteristics such as gender, population group, marital status, geography type and province of residence.