I Sverige finns idag en vedertagen metod för att bestämma dimensionerande flöde för dammanläggningar. De teoretiska beräkningarna av dimensionerande flöde för dammanläggningar tillhörande flödesdimensioneringsklass I baseras på HBV-modellen, en begreppsmässig hydrologisk beräkningsmodell som beskriver samspelet mellan de meteorologiska och hydrologiska förhållanden som råder inom ett avrinningsområde. Begreppsmässiga hydrologiska modeller baseras på vattenbalansen och används för att bestämma tillrinning till vattendrag, sjöar eller andra vattenförekomster. Vid hydrologisk modellering med begreppsmässiga modeller tas ingen explicit hänsyn till vattendragets geometri. Trånga sektioner i naturliga vattendrag kan hindra vattnets framfart och orsaka dämning uppströms den trånga sektionen. Till följd av det kan en del av flödestoppen kvarhållas i terrängen och därmed dämpas och fördröjas. Hydrauliska modeller beskriver vattnets flöde genom vattendraget. Högupplöst höjddata utgör grunden i en hydraulisk modell och vid hydraulisk modellering tas således hänsyn till avrinningsområdets topografi såväl som vattendragets batymetri. Syftet med detta examensarbete var att analysera tillförlitligheten i beräknade dimensionerande flöden framtagna enligt Flödeskommitténs Riktlinjer för bestämning av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar. Genom att upprätta hydrauliska modeller över två specifika vattendragssträckor som berörs av trånga sektioner kunde det undersökas huruvida de trånga sektionerna orsakar någon flödesdämpning samt om flödesdämpningen beror av storleken på vattenflödet. De områden som var föremål för denna studie var en delsträcka av Övre Lagan samt en del av Bolmån som är Lagans största tillflöde. Resultaten visade att flödestopparna dämpades och att det var de trånga sektionerna som orsakade den huvudsakliga flödesdämpningen. Vidare visade resultaten att den relativa dämpningen beror av storleken på inflödet i de hydrauliska modellerna. Den relativa dämpningen av det dimensionerandet flödet vid Övre Lagan var marginell, 1,2 % respektive 2,0 %, medan den vid Bolmån uppgick till 6,7 %. Det faktum att de dimensionerande flödena emellertid dämpades i de båda fallen bör vara skäl nog att se över metoden för bestämmandet av dimensionerande flöden för dammanläggningar tillhörande flödesdimensioneringsklass I och undersöka huruvida det är möjligt att innefatta hydraulisk modellering i den idag vedertagna beräkningsmetodiken. / In Sweden there is currently an accepted method for determining the design floods for dams which is described in The Swedish Design Flood Guidelines. The theoretical calculations of the design floods for dams associated with Flood Design Category I are based on the HBV model, a conceptual hydrological model that describes the interaction between the meteorological and hydrological conditions within a basin. Conceptual hydrological models are based on the water balance and are used to determine runoff to streams, lakes or other bodies of water. Conceptual hydrological models do not take explicit account for the geometry of the watercourse. Narrow sections in natural streams may prevent water flow and cause impoundment upstream from the narrow section. Following that, a part of the flow peak can be retained in the terrain and thereby attenuated and delayed. Hydraulic models describe the flow of water through the watercourse. High resolution elevation data is the foundation of a hydraulic model and hydraulic models thus take into account the basin topography as well as the watercourse bathymetry. The objective of this study was to analyze the reliability of design floods that have been determined according to The Swedish Design Flood Guidelines. By establishing hydraulic models of two specific streams affected by narrow sections it could be examined whether the narrow sections cause flow attenuation and whether the flow attenuation depends on the size of the water flow. The areas which were the subject of this study were a subsection of River Lagan and part of River Bolmån, which is River Lagan’s largest tributary. The results of the hydraulic model simulations showed that the flow peaks were attenuated and that it was the narrow sections that caused the main flow attenuation. Furthermore, the results showed that the relative attenuation depends on the size of the inflow in the hydraulic models. The relative attenuation of the design floods was 1.2 % and 2.0 % at River Lagan and 6.7 % at River Bolmån. The relative attenuation of the design flood was thus marginal at River Lagan. The fact that the design floods nevertheless were attenuated at both areas which were the subject of this study should be reason enough to review the method for the determination of design floods for dams associated with Flood Design Category I and examine whether it is possible to include hydraulic modeling in today’s conventional calculation methodology.

Flood estimation is often required in hydrologic design and has important economic significance. For example, in Australia, the annual spending on infrastructure requiring flood estimation is of the order of $650 million ARR (I.E. Aust., 1998). Rainfall-based flood estimation techniques are most commonly adopted in practice. These require several inputs to convert design rainfalls to design floods. Of all the inputs, loss is an important one and defined as the amount of precipitation that does not appear as direct runoff. The concept of loss includes moisture intercepted by vegetation, infiltration into the soil, retention on the surface, evaporation and loss through the streambed and banks. As these loss components are dependent on topography, soils, vegetation and climate, the loss exhibits a high degree of temporal and spatial variability during the rainfall event. In design flood estimation, the simplified lumped conceptual loss models were used because of their simplicity and ability to approximate catchment runoff behaviour. In Australia, the most commonly adopted conceptual loss model is the initial losscontinuing loss model. For a specific part of the catchment, the initial loss occurs prior to the commencement of surface runoff, and can be considered to be composed of the interception loss, depression storage and infiltration that occur before the soil surface saturates. ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998) mentioned that the continuing loss is the average rate of loss throughout the remainder of the storm. At present, there is inadequate information on design losses in most parts of Australia and this is one of the greatest weaknesses in Australian flood hydrology. Currently recommended design losses are not compatible with design rainfall information in Australian Rainfall and Runoff. Also design losses for observed storms show a wide variability and it is always difficult to select an appropriate value of loss from this wide range for a particular application. Despite the wide variability of loss values, in the widely used Design Event Approach, a single value of initial and continuing losses is adopted. Because of the non-linearity in the rainfall-runoff process, this is likely to introduce a high degree of uncertainty and possible bias in the resulting flood estimates. In contrast, the Joint Probability Approach can consider probability-distributed losses in flood estimation. In ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998) it is recommended to use a constant continuing loss value in rainfall events. In this research it was observed that the continuing loss values in the rainfall events were not constant, rather than it decays with the duration of the rainfall event. The derived loss values from the 969 rainfall and streamflow events of Queensland catchments would provide better flood estimation than the recommended design loss values in ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998). In this research, both the initial and continuing losses were computed using IL-CL loss model and a single median loss value was used to estimate flood using Design Event Approach. Again both the initial and continuing losses were considered to be random variables and their probability distribution functions were determined. Hence, the research showed that the probability distributed loss values can be used for Queensland catchments in near future for better flood estimate. The research hypothesis tested was whether the new loss value for Queensland catchments provides significant improvement in design flood estimation. A total of 48 catchments, 82 pluviograph stations and 24 daily rainfall stations were selected from all over Queensland to test the research hypothesis. The research improved the recommended design loss values that will result in more precise design flood estimates. This will ultimately save millions of dollars in the construction of hydraulic infrastructures.