In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for uncertainty in spatial linkages. Our procedure is applied to a dataset of income per capita growth and 50 potential determinants for 255 NUTS-2 European regions. We show that ignoring uncertainty in the type of spatial weight matrix can have an important effect on the estimates of the parameters attached to the model covariates. After integrating out the uncertainty implied by the choice of regressors and spatial links, human capital investments and transitional dynamics related to income convergence appear as the most robust determinants of growth at the regional level in Europe. Our results imply that a quantitatively important part of the income convergence process in Europe is influenced by spatially correlated growth spillovers.

This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to find robust determinants of economic growth in a new dataset of 255 European regions between 1995 and 2005. The paper finds that income convergence between countries is dominated by the catching-up of regions in new member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), whereas convergence within countries is driven by regions in old EU member states. Regions containing capital cities are growing faster, particularly in CEE countries, as do regions with a large share of workers with higher education. The results are robust to allowing for spatial spillovers among European regions.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is a fact that development aid represents the single most important source of external finance for most developing countries. This study sought to answer an important question relating to whether aid has a positive impact on economic growth or not. There is much literature on the subject and the views are quite diverse. Using the World Development Indicators (WDI) data, a cross-section regression analysis was performed over a period of 16 years and existing literature on the subject was re-examined. Of importance, this study tries to understand what the determinants or triggers of economic growth are, especially in developing economies. The results show that, although no significant relationship could be found between economic growth and development aid, there is strong evidence that there is a significant positive relationship between economic growth and the important triggers of economic growth used in the study, namely exports and investments. These are important components for the growth of any economy. The implicit conclusion is that since these two components are being impacted positively by aid, it follows then that the link between economic growth and aid can be considered to be a positive one. These findings go against the critics of development aid who maintain that aid that is being pumped into developing economies, especially the African continent, is actually just going into a big black hole and could be used more effectively somewhere else. This study proves that this is not the case and donor countries need to intensify their efforts of providing aid to poor countries because they need it and it is actually making a difference. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is ‘n algemeen aanvaarde feit dat ontwikkelingsteun die enkel belangrikste bron van eksterne finansiering is vir die meeste ontwikkelende lande. Hierdie studie poog om antwoorde te vind vir die belangrike vraag of steun ‘n positiewe impak op ekonomiese groei het of nie. Daar is volop literatuur oor die onderwerp beskikbaar en die opvattings is uiters uiteenlopend. Deur die World Development Indicators data te gebruik, is ‘n deursnit regressie analise gedoen oor ‘n periode van 16 jaar en bestaande literatuur oor die onderwerp is weer ondersoek. Die belangrikste oogmerk van die studie is om te probeer verstaan wat die bepalers of snellers van ekonomiese groei is, veral in ontwikkelende ekonomië. Die uitslae toon dat, alhoewel daar geen beduidende verhouding gevind kon word tussen ekonomiese groei en ontwikkelingsteun nie, daar wel sterk bewyse is vir ‘n beduidende positiewe verhouding tussen ekonomiese groei en die belangrike snellers van ekonomiese groei soos gebruik in die studie, naamlik uitvoere en beleggings. Hierdie is belangrike komponente vir die groei van enige ekonomie. Die implisiete afleiding is dus dat, aangesien hierdie twee komponente positief beïnvloed word deur ontwikkelingsteun, dit volg dat die skakel tussen ekonomiese groei en steun ook as ‘n positiewe een beskou kan word. Hierdie bevindings is lynreg in teenstelling met die kritici van ontwikkelingsteun wat handhaaf dat steun wat aan ontwikkelende lande, veral in Afrika, gegee word, eintlik net in ‘n groot swart gat verdwyn en meer effektief elders aangewend kan word. Hierdie studie bewys dat dit nie die geval is nie en dat skenker lande eerder hulle pogings om steun aan arm lande te bied moet verskerp omdat hulle dit nodig het en omdat dit regtig ‘n verskil maak.

This study empirically investigates the key macroeconomic determinants of economic growth in three Southern African Development Community countries, namely: Malawi, Zambia, and South Africa, using annual data for the period 1970-2013. The study uses the recently developed Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error correction model. In Malawi, the study finds that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively associated, while inflation is negatively associated with economic growth in the short run. In the long run, the results reveal that investment, human capital development, and international trade are positively and significantly associated, while population growth and inflation are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In Zambia, the short-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while government consumption, international trade, and foreign aid are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. The long-run results reveal that investment and human capital development are positively and significantly associated, while foreign aid is negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In South Africa, the study results show that in the short run, investment is positively and significantly associated, while population growth and government consumption are negatively and significantly associated with economic growth. In the long run, the results reveal that economic growth is positively and significantly associated with investment, human capital development, and international trade, but negatively and significantly associated with population growth, government consumption, and inflation. These results all have significant policy implications. It is recommended that Malawian authorities should focus on strategies that attract investment: in addition there is a need to improve the quality of education, encourage export diversification, reduce population growth, and ensure inflation stability. Similarly Zambian authorities should focus on creation of incentives that attract investment, provision of quality education: moreover they need to improve government effectiveness, encourage international trade and ensure the effectiveness of development aid. South African authorities are recommended to focus on policies that attract investments, the provision of quality education, and trade liberalisation: concomitantly there is also a need to reduce population growth, government consumption and inflation. / Economics / Ph.D. (Economics)