In this paper it is investigated the role that geothermal energy could play in theenergy mix, to meet new system requirements. As any other source, geothermal energy harnessing implies a number of risksmainly related to induced seismicity and landslides, together with the releaseof as greenhouse gases and metal salts. Moreover, important barriers to itsimplementation still exist, mainly concerning financial aspects and drillingoperations. As well, administrative status is uncertain and related investmentin R&D negligible. However, geothermal energy presents important advantages in relation toother energy sources, as its reliability and large capacity factor, comparable tonuclear and natural gas plants. It could help to reduce both the globalwarming, whose potential is up to 5 times lower than in the case of fossilfuels, and the landuse, the lowest of any power plant. Additionally, in spite ofthe high and risky initial investment, energy produced by geothermal means is amongst the cheapest. The geothermal potential is large enough to substantially contribute to theenergy mix, through locally available resources. Economic potential in Europeby 2050 is estimated in 100 – 4 000 TWheand 880–1 050 TWhth. Nevertheless, currently available technology strongly limits the access togeothermal resources. In addition, predictions about geothermal utilizationare modest and have hardly been achieved to date. The key for the future isthe development of the Engineered Geothermal Systems.

Orientador: Sergio Valdir Bajay / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T05:07:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Carvalho_ClaudioBezerrade_D.pdf: 1717945 bytes, checksum: 278bbb29104ec96389a1e6616a1dc209 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Resumo: Este trabalho traz uma avaliação critica do planejamento energético de longo prazo realizado no Pais nos últimos anos e aponta tanto para a necessidade de uma melhor integração entre as atividades de planejamento energético, elaboração de políticas públicas e regulação dos mercados de energia, como para uma premente descentralização do processo de planejamento. Como resultados desta análise e com base em experiências bem sucedidas no exterior, são propostos avanços metodológicos para a elaboração de futuras projeções e o desenvolvimento de um modelo integrado de projeção da demanda e da oferta de energéticos. Como a aplicação de tal modelo está vinculada à utilização de uma base de dados ampla e consistente, é proposto o desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de informações energéticas, integrado a um sistema de informações executivas, cujo objetivo é servir de suporte para as atividades desenvolvidas pelo Ministério de Minas e Energia. Discute-se os vários métodos de tratamento das incertezas nos modelos energéticos, com destaques para a elaboração de cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento e para o uso da técnica Delphi de levantamento de opiniões de especialistas. Monta-se, por fim, à guisa de um estudo de caso que visa contribuir para o necessário processo de descentralização do planejamento energético no País, cenários alternativos de desenvolvimento para a projeção da demanda energética do Estado da Bahia, de uma forma concatenada com cenários semelhantes no âmbito nacional / Abstract: This work brings a critical evaluation of the long-term energy planning carried out in the country in the last years, pointing out both for the need of a better integration of the activities concerning energy planning, policy making and regulation of energy markets, and for an urgent decentralization of the planning process. As results of this analysis and based on successful experiences abroad,methodological advances are proposed for the elaboration of future forecasts, together with the development of an integrated model for forecasting energy demand and supply. As the application of such a model requires a broad and consistent data basis, setting up a national system of energy information is proposed, integrated to a system of executive information, aimed to support the activities of the Ministry of Mines and Energy. The several methods for treating uncertainties in energy modeling are discussed, with emphasis on the elaboration of alternative development scenarios and the use of the Delphi technique for collecting and processing the opinions of specialists. At the end, alternative development scenarios for forecasting the energy demand in the State of Bahia, linked to similar scenarios at the national level, are elaborated, as a study case aimed to contribute for the necessary decentralization process of energy planning in the country / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

Aim of this thesis is to design a business plan for a new company entering the market. The first part discusses the theoretical basis of financial planning. The second part focuses on the company itself and the analysis of the current situation. The following part proposes a five-year financial plan from 2017 to 2021, an assesment of the financial plan, the optimistic and pessimistic scenario of the market developement. Last part contains a risk analysis and suggestions for risks which have been identified as undesirable.