abstract: This work investigates the effects of non-random sampling on our understanding of species distributions and their niches. In its most general form, bias is systematic error that can obscure interpretation of analytical results by skewing samples away from the average condition of the system they represent. Here I use species distribution modelling (SDM), virtual species, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to explore how sampling bias can alter our perception of broad patterns of biodiversity by distorting spatial predictions of habitat, a key characteristic in biogeographic studies. I use three separate case studies to explore: 1) How methods to account for sampling bias in species distribution modeling may alter estimates of species distributions and species-environment relationships, 2) How accounting for sampling bias in fossil data may change our understanding of paleo-distributions and interpretation of niche stability through time (i.e. niche conservation), and 3) How a novel use of MGWR can account for environmental sampling bias to reveal landscape patterns of local niche differences among proximal, but non-overlapping sister taxa. Broadly, my work shows that sampling bias present in commonly used federated global biodiversity observations is more than enough to degrade model performance of spatial predictions and niche characteristics. Measures commonly used to account for this bias can negate much loss, but only in certain conditions, and did not improve the ability to correctly identify explanatory variables or recreate species-environment relationships. Paleo-distributions calibrated on biased fossil records were improved with the use of a novel method to directly estimate the biased sampling distribution, which can be generalized to finer time slices for further paleontological studies. Finally, I show how a novel coupling of SDM and MGWR can illuminate local differences in niche separation that more closely match landscape genotypic variability in the two North American desert tortoise species than does their current taxonomic delineation. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2018

Em vista das mudanças ambientais em nível global, disponibilizar informações ecológicas e buscar uma melhor compreensão dos fatores e processos que moldam a distribuição de espécies, é uma iniciativa importante para o planejamento de ações de conservação. Neste contexto, a importância e carência de informações sobre a distribuição geográficas das espécies nos motivaram a predizer a distribuição potencial de arbustos e árvores das famílias Lauraceae e Myrtaceae na Floresta Atlântica, no sul do Brasil. Modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) foram usados para ajustar modelos preditivos com os registros de ocorrência de 88 espécies em função de variáveis ambientais. As variáveis preditoras foram selecionadas com base no menor critério de informação de Akaike corrigido. Nós avaliamos o desempenho dos modelos usando o método de validação cruzada (10-fold) para calcular a habilidade estatística verdadeira (TSS) e a área sob a curva característica do operador receptor (AUC). Nós usamos GLM para testar a influência da área de ocorrência estimada, do número de registros das espécies e da complexidade dos modelos sobre a TSS e a AUC. Nossos resultados mostraram que as variáveis climáticas governam amplamente a distribuição de espécies, mas as variáveis que captam as variações ambientais locais são relativamente importantes na área de estudo. A TSS foi significativamente influenciada pelo número de registros e complexidade dos modelos, enquanto a AUC sofreu com o efeito de todos os três fatores avaliados. A interação entre estes fatores é uma questão importante e a ser considerada em novas avaliações sobre ambas medidas e com diferentes técnicas de modelagem. Nossos resultados também mostraram que as distribuições de algumas espécies foram superestimadas e outras corresponderam bem com a ocorrência por nós conhecida. Efetivamente nossos resultados têm fundamentos para embasar novos levantamentos de campo, a avaliação de áreas prioritárias e planos de conservação, além de inferências dos efeitos de mudanças ambientais sobre as espécies da Mata Atlântica. / In view of environmental change on a global level, providing ecological information and getting a better understanding of the factors and processes that shape species distribution is an important initiative for planning conservation actions. In this context, the importance and lack of information about the geographical distribution of species motivated us to predict the potential species distribution of shrubs and trees of the family Lauraceae and Myrtaceae, in the Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to fit predictive models with records of occurrence of 88 species according to environmental variables. Predictor variables were selected based on the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion. We evaluate the performance of the models using the method of cross-validation (10-fold) to calculate the true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). We used GLM to test the influence of the area of occurrence estimated, the number of records of the species and the complexity of the models on the TSS and AUC. Our results show that climatic variables largely govern the distribution of species, but the variables that capture the local environmental variations are relatively important in the study area. The TSS was significantly influenced by the number of records and complexity of models while the AUC suffered from the effect of all three evaluated factors. The interaction between these factors is an important issue and be considered for new reviews on both measures and with different modeling techniques. Our results also showed that the distributions of some species were overestimated and other corresponded well with the occurrence known to us. Indeed our results have foundations to support new field surveys, assessment of priority areas and conservation plans, and inferences of the effects of environmental change on species of the Atlantic Forest.

Em vista das mudanças ambientais em nível global, disponibilizar informações ecológicas e buscar uma melhor compreensão dos fatores e processos que moldam a distribuição de espécies, é uma iniciativa importante para o planejamento de ações de conservação. Neste contexto, a importância e carência de informações sobre a distribuição geográficas das espécies nos motivaram a predizer a distribuição potencial de arbustos e árvores das famílias Lauraceae e Myrtaceae na Floresta Atlântica, no sul do Brasil. Modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) foram usados para ajustar modelos preditivos com os registros de ocorrência de 88 espécies em função de variáveis ambientais. As variáveis preditoras foram selecionadas com base no menor critério de informação de Akaike corrigido. Nós avaliamos o desempenho dos modelos usando o método de validação cruzada (10-fold) para calcular a habilidade estatística verdadeira (TSS) e a área sob a curva característica do operador receptor (AUC). Nós usamos GLM para testar a influência da área de ocorrência estimada, do número de registros das espécies e da complexidade dos modelos sobre a TSS e a AUC. Nossos resultados mostraram que as variáveis climáticas governam amplamente a distribuição de espécies, mas as variáveis que captam as variações ambientais locais são relativamente importantes na área de estudo. A TSS foi significativamente influenciada pelo número de registros e complexidade dos modelos, enquanto a AUC sofreu com o efeito de todos os três fatores avaliados. A interação entre estes fatores é uma questão importante e a ser considerada em novas avaliações sobre ambas medidas e com diferentes técnicas de modelagem. Nossos resultados também mostraram que as distribuições de algumas espécies foram superestimadas e outras corresponderam bem com a ocorrência por nós conhecida. Efetivamente nossos resultados têm fundamentos para embasar novos levantamentos de campo, a avaliação de áreas prioritárias e planos de conservação, além de inferências dos efeitos de mudanças ambientais sobre as espécies da Mata Atlântica. / In view of environmental change on a global level, providing ecological information and getting a better understanding of the factors and processes that shape species distribution is an important initiative for planning conservation actions. In this context, the importance and lack of information about the geographical distribution of species motivated us to predict the potential species distribution of shrubs and trees of the family Lauraceae and Myrtaceae, in the Atlantic Forest in southern Brazil. Generalized linear models (GLM) were used to fit predictive models with records of occurrence of 88 species according to environmental variables. Predictor variables were selected based on the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion. We evaluate the performance of the models using the method of cross-validation (10-fold) to calculate the true skill statistic (TSS) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). We used GLM to test the influence of the area of occurrence estimated, the number of records of the species and the complexity of the models on the TSS and AUC. Our results show that climatic variables largely govern the distribution of species, but the variables that capture the local environmental variations are relatively important in the study area. The TSS was significantly influenced by the number of records and complexity of models while the AUC suffered from the effect of all three evaluated factors. The interaction between these factors is an important issue and be considered for new reviews on both measures and with different modeling techniques. Our results also showed that the distributions of some species were overestimated and other corresponded well with the occurrence known to us. Indeed our results have foundations to support new field surveys, assessment of priority areas and conservation plans, and inferences of the effects of environmental change on species of the Atlantic Forest.

Submitted by Rafael Santana (rafael.silvasantana@ufpe.br) on 2017-04-26T19:32:19Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese_B_Macena_Full_Tubaleia_oficial_FINAL_BIB.pdf: 3006322 bytes, checksum: 3a1ffaf6152b8966edc8c3989913e65f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-26T19:32:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Tese_B_Macena_Full_Tubaleia_oficial_FINAL_BIB.pdf: 3006322 bytes, checksum: 3a1ffaf6152b8966edc8c3989913e65f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-01 / CNPQ / Compreender detalhadamente a história de vida do tubarão-baleia é fundamental para assegurar a sua conservação. No entanto, apesar da espécie possuir distribuição circumglobal e ser relativamente bem estudada entre os elasmobrânquios, ainda existe uma grande escassez de informações relacionadas a muitos dos seus aspectos ecológicos e biológicos em todo o mundo, principalmente no que diz respeito aos seus movimentos migratórios e ciclo reprodutivo. No Oceano Atlântico, particularmente, a espécie vem sendo investigada majoritariamente no Golfo do México/ Mar do Caribe, permanecendo uma grande lacuna para o restante dessa bacia oceânica. O presente estudo representa a primeira iniciativa de investigação da distribuição espacial do tubarão-baleia em escala oceânica no sudoeste do Atlântico baseada em registros de ocorrências na costa do Brasil, além de ter sido o primeiro trabalho também sobre o rastreamento de tubarões-baleia na região equatorial. Com o objetivo de complementar o conhecimento acerca da distribuição geográfica e movimentação do tubarão-baleia nas regiões sudoeste e equatorial do oceano Atlântico, foram empregadas técnicas modernas de modelagem ecológica e rastreamento via satélite, além da utilização do método tradicional de censo visual para identificação de aspectos populacionais no Arquipélago de São Pedro e São Paulo (ASPSP). Primeiramente, foram realizadas predições referentes à distribuição espacial de habitats adequados para alimentação e inferências sobre a influência de variáveis ambientais específicas para ocorrência do tubarão-baleia na costa do Brasil/ sudoeste do oceano Atlântico. Em seguida, a sazonalidade, a abundância relativa e a estrutura populacional dos tubarões-baleia que visitam o ASPSP foram investigadas, incluindo inferências acerca da importância de ecossistemas insulares oceânicos para a parcela madura da espécie. Por fim, na terceira parte da Tese, os deslocamentos horizontais e verticais de tubarões-baleia marcados com transmissores via satélite no ASPSP foram descritos e o comportamento de mergulho avaliado com relação a fatores biofísicos e ambientais específicos. Os resultados obtidos no presente estudo são relevantes não somente para a conservação do tubarão-baleia, mas para o ecossistema marinho na costa do Brasil, de uma forma geral, posto que o mapeamento de habitats ideais para alimentação da espécie também serve para identificar áreas ecologicamente importantes para outras espécies. Ademais, a identificação do ASPSP como uma área importante para a parcela adulta dos tubarões-baleia ressalta sua importância ecológica no ciclo de vida da espécie, destacando a necessidade de se envidar maiores esforços para a conservação do local. / Understanding the life history of the whale shark is fundamental to assure its conservation. However, in spite of the circumglobal distribution of the species and the fact that it is relatively well studied among elasmobranchs, there is still a serious lack of information concerning its biology in the entire world, mainly regarding its migratory movements and reproductive cycle. In the Atlantic Ocean, particularly, the whale sharks have been predominantly studied in the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea, with a big gap still remaining for the rest of this ocean basin. Aiming to help to fill this gap on geographical distribution and movement patterns of whale sharks in the Equatorial and Southwest Atlantic regions, modern techniques of ecological modelling and satellite tracking were used, in addition to the use of scientific traditional method of visual census to describe the population aspects of the species in the archipelago of São Pedro and São Paulo (ASPSP). Firstly, geographical predictions of suitable habitats for whale shark feeding and inferences of the influence of specific environmental variables on the occurrence distribution in the Brazilian coast/southwestern Atlantic Ocean were conducted to describe the potential spatial distribution of the species. Then, the seasonality of occurrence, relative abundance and population structure of the whale sharks visiting the ASPSP were investigated, including a discussion regarding the importance of the insular oceanic ecosystems to the mature portion of the species. Finally, in the third part of the thesis, the horizontal and vertical displacements of whale sharks satellite tagged off ASPSP were described and the diving behavior assessed in relation to specific biophysical and environmental factors. The present study represents the first oceanic-scale spatial distribution investigation effort in the southwest Atlantic on whale shark presence records from the Brazilian coast, besides of being the first study using satellite tracking on the species in the equatorial Atlantic as well. The results presented here are of great relevance not only for the whale shark conservation but also for the Brazilian marine ecosystem, as the mapping of suitable feeding habitats could contribute to the identification of areas of ecological importance to other marine species. Moreover, the identification of the ASPSP as an important area for the mature part of whale shark populations highlights its ecological relevance on the species life cycle, emphasizing the need of increasing the conservation efforts in this habitat.

Submitted by JÚLIO HEBER SILVA (julioheber@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-05-22T20:00:54Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Daniel de Paiva Silva - 2014.pdf: 10957994 bytes, checksum: 6f0100ece2bde63eead33101bf358768 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Rejected by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com), reason: Sei que já enviou o comprovante, mas não conta a ata e o TECA não está onde deveria. on 2017-05-25T11:39:37Z (GMT) / Submitted by JÚLIO HEBER SILVA (julioheber@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-05-25T18:42:10Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Daniel de Paiva Silva - 2014.pdf: 10957994 bytes, checksum: 6f0100ece2bde63eead33101bf358768 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-05-26T14:45:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Daniel de Paiva Silva - 2014.pdf: 10957994 bytes, checksum: 6f0100ece2bde63eead33101bf358768 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-26T14:45:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Tese - Daniel de Paiva Silva - 2014.pdf: 10957994 bytes, checksum: 6f0100ece2bde63eead33101bf358768 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-28 / Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq / The world we live in faces fast and intense environmental changes, deeply related to human activities, which directly or indirectly are related to the current biodiversity crisis. Thus, the existence of quality biological, ecological, and distributional data is of utmost importance for the support of active conservation practices. Nonetheless, both Linnean (lack of taxonomical data) and Wallacean (lack of distributional data) shortfalls are important setbacks hindering the effectiveness of conservationist decisions. The data harbored in museums and overall collections is excellent to support conservational measures. Nonetheless, usually this data is biased and needs to be adequately filtered before being used. Insect and arthropod species are under sampled, what impedes them to be properly considered under Conservation Biogeography frameworks. In such scenario, even insect groups with relatively known biology and ecology are neglected in practical conservation actions. Despite that, with the advent of new computational tools allied with good theories and good distributional data of insect species, it is possible to contemplate those biological groups in concrete and efficient conservation actions. Therefore, in the first part of this thesis, considering bees from the Megachile genus (Chapter 1) and from the Meliponini tribe (Chapter 2), we evaluated potential biases affecting those data, but also evaluate potential areas for new field surveys. The Wallacean shortfalls are commonly used to justify the implementation of new field surveys. Therefore, in the second part of this thesis, we used the new occurrences of the bee species [Aglae caerulea (Apidae: Eulgossini) – Chapter 3; and the exotic species, Lithurgus huberi (Apidae: Lithurgini) – Chapter 4] allied with distribution modelling to predict these species potential distributions and indicate areas for future new samplings. On the third and last part of the thesis, we considered a regional spatial scale and habitat loss and fragmentation questions to address their effects on the bee biodiversity from the Cerrado biome found within the Goiás state. In Chapter 5, we evaluated the effects of anthropic areas amount and their isolation on two orchid-bee species from the Cerrado (Eulaema nigrita and Eufriesea auriceps), which apparently are not affected by the increase of anthropic areas in this biome. Later, in the last chapter (Chapter 6), we evaluated the response of all bee community we sampled in Cerrado areas within state of Goiás, as well as the sub groups of eusocial and solitary species, to the landscape structure of our sampling areas, considering different local spatial scales. / O mundo vive rápidas e intensas mudanças ambientais intimamente relacionadas às atividades humanas e que, direta ou indiretamente, estão relacionadas à atual crise de biodiversidade. Assim, a existência de dados biológicos, ecológicos e distribucionais de qualidade é de extrema importância dar suporte a tomada de ações práticas de conservação. Entretanto, os déficits Linneanos (falta de dados taxonômicos) e Wallaceanos (falta de dados distribucionais) são importantes problemas que impedem a efetiva tomada de decisões conservacionistas. Neste contexto, dados provenientes de museus e coleções, após cuidadosa filtragem, são excelentes para apoiarem tais ações. Em geral, esta informação é enviesada e necessita de cuidado adequado antes de ser utilizada. Espécies de artrópodes e insetos são sub amostrados, impedindo sua utilização em propostas práticas de conservação utilizadas na Biogeografia da Conservação. Neste cenário, mesmo grupos cuja ecologia e biologia são bem conhecidas, acabam não sendo utilizados. Apesar disso, o advento de novas ferramentas computacionais aliados a boas teorias e bons dados de distribuição das espécies de insetos, é possível a contemplação do uso de vários grupos entomológicos em ações concretas de conservação. Assim, na primeira parte da presente tese, considerando abelhas do gênero Megachile (Capítulo 1) e da tribo Meliponini (Capítulo 2), nós analisamos os eventuais vícios de amostragem existentes nos dados de ocorrência das espécies destes gêneros, descrevendo o estado atual do conhecimento da distribuição destas abelhas e áreas para potenciais amostragens futuras. Os déficits Wallaceanos são frequentemente utilizados como justificativa para a realização de novos inventários biológicos. Deste modo, na segunda parte desta tese, nós utilizamos novas ocorrências de duas espécies de abelhas (Agale caerulea (Apidae: Euglossini) – Capítulo 3; e a espécie invasora Lithurgus huberi (Apidae: Lithurgini) – Capítulo 4) com abordagens de modelagens de distribuição potencial para predizer suas distribuições e indicar locais ideias para novas coletas. Na terceira e última parte desta tese, considerando-se uma escala espacial mais regional, nós consideramos questões de perda de habitats e fragmentação sobre a biodiversidade de abelhas do Cerrado goiano. No capítulo 5, nós avaliamos os efeitos da quantidade de habitat e isolamento sobre duas espécies de abelhas das orquídeas do Cerrado (Elaema nigrita e Eufriesea auriceps), que, aparentemente não são afetadas pelo aumento de áreas antrópicas no bioma. Por fim, no último capítulo (Capítulo 6), nós avaliamos a resposta de toda a comunidade de abelhas coletadas em áreas de Cerrado de Goiás, bem como a resposta das espécies de grupos de abelhas solitárias e eusociais, à estrutura da paisagem dos nossos pontos de coletas, em diferentes escalas espaciais locais.

Ecological niche models (ENMs) were created for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs and projected into the Last Interglacial (LI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (mid-H) to discern possible past suitable habitat for both species. Additionally, ENMs were projected into the future year 2070 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 to discern how climate change may affect future habitat suitability. Kernel density estimations, minimum convex polygons, and median distribution centers of White-tailed and Black-tailed occurrence records were examined between time-periods to discern the effects of anthropogenic westward expansion on both species’ distributions. Current ENMs were constructed from commonly used bioclimatic variables and non-traditional variables (including EPA level III Ecoregions) for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs for variable comparison performance in ENMs. Results indicate that both species respond to climate change and each occupy distinct ecological niches. Biogeographical changes coincident with westward expansion remain unknown.

No description available.

No description available.

<p>U&nbsp; radu&nbsp; je&nbsp; analizirana&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih područja&nbsp; Srbije&nbsp; u&nbsp; sada&scaron;njosti&nbsp; i&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; na osnovu&nbsp; zastupljenosti&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i centara&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; 116&nbsp; običnih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; ptica odabranih na osnovu 11 kriterijuma. Zasebno su evaluirana&nbsp; za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobara, međunarodno značajna područja za ptice (IBA) i mreža nastala preklapanjem dva tipa za&scaron;tićenih područja.&nbsp; Povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta utvrđena su modelovanjem distribucije vrsta uz pomoć&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; pristupa,&nbsp; a&nbsp; modeli&nbsp; distribucije projektovani&nbsp; su&nbsp; na&nbsp; četiri&nbsp; različita&nbsp; scenarija klimatskih&nbsp; promena&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; (2050. godina).&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; pokazala&nbsp; se&nbsp; kao&nbsp; značajno<br />efektivnija za za&scaron;titu stani&scaron;ta istraživanih vrsta i centara&nbsp; njihvog&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; u&nbsp; odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; mrežu za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara,&nbsp; a&nbsp; slična&nbsp; situacija predviđena&nbsp; je&nbsp; i&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti.&nbsp; Oba&nbsp; tipa za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; pokrivala&nbsp; su&nbsp; u&nbsp; proseku srazmerno&nbsp; mali&nbsp; procenat&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;<br />10,4%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 21,9%)&nbsp; i&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; su&nbsp; do ostvarivanja konzervacionih ciljeva malog broja vrsta (za&scaron;tićena prirodna dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 11; IBA&nbsp; -&nbsp; 37), dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrstasrazmerno&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljeni&nbsp; unutar&nbsp; obe&nbsp; mreže (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 9,8%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash; 25,4%).&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; područja&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; pokazale<br />značajno&nbsp; veću&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&nbsp; konzervaciono prioritetnt&nbsp; vrste&nbsp; i&nbsp; njihov&nbsp; diverzitet.&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; u&nbsp; Srbiji&nbsp; značajno bolje&nbsp; pokrivaju&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centre&nbsp; diverziteta &scaron;umskih vrsta i vrsta kamenjara, klisura i litica, dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta,&nbsp; naselja&nbsp; i vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; izrazito&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena. Stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; nizijskih&nbsp; poljoprivrednih<br />stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; naročito&nbsp; su&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena&nbsp; unutar za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreže,&nbsp; koja za&nbsp; ovu&nbsp; grupu&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; do&nbsp; postizanja konzervacionih&nbsp; ciljeva.&nbsp; Razlike&nbsp; u&nbsp; efektivnosti za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; za&nbsp; gnezdarice&nbsp; različitih tipova&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; će&nbsp; se&nbsp; generalno povećavati,&nbsp; usled&nbsp; predviđenog&nbsp; smanjivanja<br />areala većine &scaron;umskih vrsta koje će se povlačiti u&nbsp; za&scaron;titom&nbsp; bolje&nbsp; pokrivene&nbsp; planinske&nbsp; predele&nbsp; i &scaron;irenja areala većine gnezdarica poljoprivrednih i&nbsp; vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; na&nbsp; neza&scaron;tićena&nbsp; nizijska područja. Za deo vrsta među kojima dominiraju<br />gnezdarice&nbsp; brdsko-planinskih&nbsp; &scaron;umskih&nbsp; i&nbsp; drugih prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; glavna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; za&scaron;tite podrazumeva&nbsp; precizno&nbsp; pro&scaron;irenje&nbsp; granica sada&scaron;njih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; uz&nbsp; upravljanje orentisano&nbsp; ka&nbsp; očuvanju&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i smanjenju&nbsp; iskori&scaron;ćavanja&nbsp; resursa.&nbsp; Sa&nbsp; druge strane,&nbsp; za&nbsp; većinu&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; i<br />travnih stani&scaron;ta, naročito u nizijskim predelima, efektivna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; bila&nbsp; bi&nbsp;&nbsp; definisanje&nbsp; potpuno novih&nbsp; i&nbsp; prostranih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja orijentisanih&nbsp; ka&nbsp; održavanju&nbsp; povoljnog&nbsp; režima upravljanja&nbsp; i&nbsp; kori&scaron;ćenja&nbsp; prostora.&nbsp; Rad&nbsp; ukazuje<br />na velike mogućnosti kori&scaron;ćenja nesistematično prikupljenih&nbsp; podataka&nbsp; profesionalnih&nbsp; i amaterskih&nbsp; ornitologa&nbsp; uz&nbsp; primenu&nbsp; tehnika modelovanja&nbsp; distribucije&nbsp; vrsta,&nbsp; ali&nbsp; nagla&scaron;ava potrebu&nbsp; za&nbsp; pokretanjem&nbsp; &scaron;irokih&nbsp; programa<br />sistematskog&nbsp; popisa,&nbsp; kartiranja&nbsp; i&nbsp; monitoringa običnih vrsta ptica.</p> / <p>The&nbsp; study&nbsp;&nbsp; analyzes&nbsp; the&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; of protected areas in Serbia presently as well as in the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; based&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; representation&nbsp; of suitable habitats and centers of diversity for 116 common&nbsp; species of&nbsp; birds,&nbsp; selected on the&nbsp; basis of&nbsp; 11&nbsp; criteria.&nbsp; Nationally&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas, Important&nbsp; Bird&nbsp; and&nbsp; Biodiversity&nbsp; areas&nbsp; (IBAs) and&nbsp; networks formed&nbsp; by overlapping these two types&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; have&nbsp; been&nbsp; evaluated separately. Suitable habitats of the species in the study&nbsp; were&nbsp; determined&nbsp; by&nbsp; species&nbsp; distribution modeling&nbsp; using&nbsp; the&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; approach,&nbsp; and&nbsp; the distribution&nbsp; models&nbsp; were&nbsp; projected&nbsp; to&nbsp; four different&nbsp; climate&nbsp; change&nbsp; scenarios&nbsp; in&nbsp; future (year&nbsp; 2050).&nbsp; The&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; proved&nbsp; to&nbsp; be significantly more effective for the&nbsp; protection of habitats&nbsp; of&nbsp; studied&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; their diversity, compared&nbsp; to the network of nationally protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; and&nbsp; a&nbsp; similar&nbsp; situation&nbsp; is projected for the future. Both types of protected areas&nbsp; on&nbsp; average&nbsp; covered&nbsp; a&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; small percentage of suitable habitats for most species (10.4%&nbsp; in&nbsp; nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 21.9%&nbsp; in IBA)&nbsp; and&nbsp; meet&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; goals&nbsp; only&nbsp; for&nbsp; a&nbsp; small&nbsp; number&nbsp; of&nbsp; species&nbsp; (11&nbsp; for&nbsp; nationaly protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 37&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA).&nbsp; Diversity&nbsp; centers for&nbsp; species&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; study&nbsp; are&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; poorlyrepresented within all three networks&nbsp; (9.8% for nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; 25.4%&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA). Protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; did&nbsp; not&nbsp; show&nbsp; significantly higher&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; for&nbsp; the&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; of priority&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; their&nbsp; diversity.&nbsp; Nationaly protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; in&nbsp; Serbia have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significantly&nbsp; better&nbsp; coverage&nbsp; of&nbsp; habitats and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity&nbsp; for&nbsp; forest&nbsp; species&nbsp; and species&nbsp; of&nbsp; rocky&nbsp; habitats,&nbsp; cliffs&nbsp; and&nbsp; gorges, while&nbsp; suitable&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity for breeding birds of farmlands, settlements and aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; are&nbsp; very&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented. Habitats of breeding birds of lowland&nbsp; armlands are&nbsp; particularly&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented&nbsp; within protected&nbsp; natural&nbsp; assets&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network, and this measure does not meet the conservation goals for this group of birds. Differences in the effectiveness&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; for&nbsp; breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; various&nbsp; habitat&nbsp; types&nbsp; will&nbsp; generally increase&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; due&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; anticipated range decrease&nbsp; for&nbsp; most forest species that will withdraw&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; better&nbsp; conserved&nbsp; mountainous areas, whereas range of the majority o f breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; will&nbsp; be expanded&nbsp; to&nbsp; unprotected&nbsp; lowland&nbsp; areas.&nbsp; For some&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; species,&nbsp; mostly&nbsp; birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; hill&nbsp; and mountain&nbsp; forests and other natural&nbsp; habitats, the main&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; strategy&nbsp; implies&nbsp; precise boundaries&nbsp; extension&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; current&nbsp; protected areas&nbsp; with&nbsp; management&nbsp; directed&nbsp; towards preserving&nbsp; natural&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; reducing&nbsp; the utilization&nbsp; of&nbsp; resources.&nbsp; On&nbsp; the&nbsp; other&nbsp; hand,&nbsp; for most&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; grassland&nbsp; species, especially in the lowlands, an effective strategy would&nbsp; be&nbsp; to&nbsp; define&nbsp; completely&nbsp; new&nbsp; and spacious&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; oriented&nbsp; towards maintaining a favorable regime for management and&nbsp; landuse. The&nbsp; study&nbsp; demonstrates that there are&nbsp; great&nbsp; possibilities&nbsp; of&nbsp; using&nbsp; nonsystematically&nbsp; collected&nbsp; data&nbsp; from&nbsp; professiona l and&nbsp; amateur&nbsp; ornithologists,&nbsp; for&nbsp; application&nbsp; in species&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; modeling,&nbsp; but&nbsp; also emphasizes&nbsp; the&nbsp; need&nbsp; to&nbsp; launch&nbsp; extensive programs for systematic inventory, mapping and monitoring of common bird species.</p>

Interannual variability of Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) occurrence in the northern California Current System is largely unknown. In Oregon, the distribution of this versatile predator and what is influencing their range expansion from Mexico is poorly understood due to the recent nature of their "invasion" and a lack of monitoring. Humboldt squid are large predators that have the potential to affect ecosystem structure and fisheries because of their high-energy demands and ability to exploit a variety of oceanographic conditions and prey sources. Developing baseline distribution information is a critical first step to assess their potential ecological, social, and economic impacts, and to develop models to predict future range expansion. This study has two main objectives: (1) to document where and when Humboldt squid have been present in Oregon through cooperative fisheries research, and (2) to correlate the sightings with oceanographic conditions using a geographic information system (GIS) and species distribution modeling (SDM). I conducted 54 interviews with local fishermen and aggregated their squid sightings with available fishery-independent survey and fishery-dependent observer data from the National Marine Fisheries Service. I compiled a total of 339 Humboldt squid sightings, reported for the years 2002-2011 from the Oregon coast to 131�� west longitude. Correlation analyses were performed for Humboldt squid sightings and sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a content (chla), sea surface height anomalies (SSH), dissolved oxygen at 30 m depth (30 m DO), and sea surface salinity (SSS) using a GIS, nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) habitat modeling, and maximum entropy modeling (Maxent). Results indicate that oceanographic conditions have the potential to influence Humboldt squid occurrence, and in Oregon, sightings vary temporally and spatially. Combining the sightings from fishermen and scientific surveys greatly enhanced the spatial extent of the data. Humboldt squid were most frequently observed between 124.4��W and 125��W in proximity to the shelf-break at the 200 m isobath, with peak sightings (116) recorded in 2009 and the fewest (6) reported in 2003 and 2011. The highest occurrence of Humboldt squid were observed at a SST of 10.5-13.0��C, 0.26-3.0 mg m����� chla content, -4.0-1.0 m SSH anomalies, 32.2-32.8 psu SSS, and at 3-4.5 ml L����� and 6-7 ml L����� 30 m depth DO. Maps of estimated likelihood of occurrence generated by NPMR were consistent with overlayed observations from fishermen, which were not used in the model because they were limited to presence-only information. An interdisciplinary approach that incorporates cooperative fisheries research and ecosystem-based management is necessary for monitoring Humboldt squid in Oregon. Traditional methods are insufficient because Humboldt squid are data-poor, highly migratory, and are main predators of many commercially important fisheries in Oregon. Based on my findings, sightings recorded by fishermen covered a much larger area over a longer time frame than the scientific survey and observer data, and excluding their knowledge would have led to a different interpretation of Humboldt squid distribution and environmental tolerances. Although there is uncertainty in the data from potential map bias or misidentification of smaller Humboldt squid, incorporating sightings from fishermen with traditional fisheries research increases the quantity and quality of information. Cooperative monitoring for Humboldt squid could include training in species identification and sea condition reporting in logbooks. Future "invasions" are likely, and more eyes on the water will improve our understanding of the behavior and impacts of Humboldt squid on coastal resources. / Graduation date: 2013