The reliability of future water supplies comes into question with the onset of global climate change and the variations in local weather patterns that it brings. Changes in temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and sea level can all have an impact on drinking water storage and supply. As these impacts are realized, it is increasingly important to use forward projecting estimates of future supply through the use of general circulation models (GCMs). GCMs can be used to predict changes in local weather over the next century. Using GCM data as input to a hydrologic model of local water supplies, water supply managers can assess and be better prepared for the impact of these possible changes. Land use/demand in particular has an impact on runoff characteristics within a watershed. By incorporating changes in land use/demand into hydrologic model simulations, a more complete picture can be generated of the possible runoff characteristics, and thereby source water supply. The four land use scenarios used in this study are: 1) present day land use/demand; 2) projected land use/demand to 2040; 3) projected land use/demand to 2070; and 4) projected land use/demand to 2100. This study uses established techniques to incorporate both climate and land use/demand change into a hydrologic model of the Occoquan watershed, which encompasses an area of approximately 1,550 square kilometers in Northern Virginia, U.S.A., and is part of the drinking water supply to approximately 1.7 million residents. / Master of Science

Le système d'upwelling péruvien est l'un des systèmes marins côtiers les plus productifs de l’océan mondial. Le vent de surface le long de la côte est le principal moteur de l'upwelling. Cette thèse vise à étudier la variabilité du vent côtier et ses processus lors du réchauffement de la couche de surface, à différentes échelles de temps: (1) des échelles de temps interannuelles, correspondant aux événements El Niño, et (2) des échelles de temps multi-décadaires résultant du changement climatique régional. Une série de domaines emboités d’un modèle atmosphérique régional est utilisée pour simuler le vent de surface. Dans la première partie de la thèse, on étudie les processus responsables de l'augmentation, contre-intuitive, du vent observée au large du Pérou au cours de la période El Niño 1997-1998. Des expériences de sensibilité montrent que le réchauffement inh de la omogène des eaux de surface, plus important dans le nord, entraîne un gradient de pression accru le long côte, accélérant le vent. Dans une seconde partie de la thèse, l’évolution des vents côtiers est étudiée dans le scénario du «pire cas» du changement climatique RCP8.5. Forcés par le gradient de pression le long de la côte, les vents diminuent en été, tandis qu’ils s’accroissent en hiver, renforçant ainsi légèrement le cycle saisonnier. / The Peruvian upwelling system is one of the most productive coastal marine systems of the world ocean. As in other upwelling systems, alongshore surface wind is the main driver of the coastal upwelling. This thesis aims to study the coastal wind variability and the processes responsible for it during the ocean surface layer warming conditions, at different time scales: (1) interannual time scales, corresponding to El Niño events and (2) multi decadal time scales resulting from regional climate change. A suite of regional atmospheric model embedded domains is used to simulate the surface winds. In the first part of the thesis, the counter-intuitive wind increase observed off Peru during the 1997-1998 El Niño is studied. Sensitivity experiments show that the inhomogenous alongshore surface warming, larger in the north, drives an enhanced alongshore pressure gradient that accelerates the alongshore wind. In the second part of the thesis, the evolution of coastal wind changes is investigated under the “worst case” RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Mainly driven by the alongshore pressure gradient, summer winds decrease whereas winter winds increase, thus slightly reinforcing the seasonal cycle.

There is ample growth in scientific evidence about climate change. Since, hydrometeorological processes are sensitive to climate variability and changes, ascertaining the linkages and feedbacks between the climate and the hydrometeorological processes becomes critical for environmental quality, economic development, social well-being etc. As the river basin integrates some of the important systems like ecological and socio-economic systems, the knowledge of plausible implications of climate change on hydrometeorology of a river basin will not only increase the awareness of how the hydrological systems may change over the coming century, but also prepare us for adapting to the impacts of climate changes on water resources for sustainable management and development. In general, quantitative climate impact studies are based on several meteorological variables and possible future climate scenarios. Among the meteorological variables, sic “cardinal” variables are identified as the most commonly used in impact studies (IPCC, 2001). These are maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. The climate scenarios refer to plausible future climates, which have been constructed for explicit use for investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate alterations, in addition to the natural climate variability. Among the climate scenarios adapted in impact assessments, General circulation model(GCM) projections based on marker scenarios given in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) have become the standard scenarios. The GCMs are run at coarse resolutions and therefore the output climate variables for the various scenarios of these models cannot be used directly for impact assessment on a local(river basin)scale. Hence in the past, several methodologies such as downscaling and disaggregation have been developed to transfer information of atmospheric variables from the GCM scale to that of surface meteorological variables at local scale. The most commonly used downscaling approaches are based on transfer functions to represent the statistical relationships between the large scale atmospheric variables(predictors) and the local surface variables(predictands). Recently Support vector machine (SVM) is proposed, and is theoretically proved to have advantages over other techniques in use such as transfer functions. The SVM implements the structural risk minimization principle, which guarantees the global optimum solution. Further, for SVMs, the learning algorithm automatically decides the model architecture. These advantages make SVM a plausible choice for use in downscaling hydrometeorological variables. The literature review on use of transfer function for downscaling revealed that though a diverse range of transfer functions has been adopted for downscaling, only a few studies have evaluated the sensitivity of such downscaling models. Further, no studies have so far been carried out in India for downscaling hydrometeorological variables to a river basin scale, nor there was any prior work aimed at downscaling CGCM3 simulations to these variables at river basin scale for various IPCC SRES emission scenarios. The research presented in the thesis is motivated to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow at river basin scale for the various IPCC SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT), by integrating implications of climate change on all the six cardinal variables. The catchment of Malaprabha river (upstream of Malaprabha reservoir) in India is chosen as the study area to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed models, as it is considered to be a climatically sensitive region, because though the river originates in a region having high rainfall it feeds arid and semi-arid regions downstream. The data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the third generation Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma), observed hydrometeorological variables, Digital Elevation model (DEM), land use/land cover map, and soil map prepared based on PAN and LISS III merged, satellite images are considered for use in the developed models. The thesis is broadly divided into four parts. The first part comprises of general introduction, data, techniques and tools used. The second part describes the process of assessment of the implications of climate change on monthly values of each of the six cardinal variables in the study region using SVM downscaling models and k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) disaggregation technique. Further, the sensitivity of the SVM downscaling models to the choice of predictors, predictand, calibration period, season and location is evaluated. The third part describes the impact assessment of climate change on streamflow in the study region using the SWAT hydrologic model, and SVM downscaling models. The fourth part presents summary of the work presented in the thesis, conclusions draws, and the scope for future research. The development of SVM downscaling model begins with the selection of probable predictors (large scale atmospheric variables). For this purpose, the cross-correlations are computed between the probable predictor variables in NCEP and GCM data sets, and the probable predictor variables in NCEP data set and the predictand. A pool of potential predictors is then stratified (which is optional and variable dependant) based on season and or location by specifying threshold values for the computed cross-correlations. The data on potential predictors are first standardized for a baseline period to reduce systemic bias (if any) in the mean and variance of predictors in GCM data, relative to those of the same in NCEP reanalysis data. The standardized NCEP predictor variables are then processed using principal component analysis (PCA) to extract principal components (PCs) which are orthogonal and which preserve more than 98% of the variance originally present in them. A feature vector is formed for each month using the PCs. The feature vector forms the input to the SVM model, and the contemporaneous value of predictand is its output. Finally, the downscaling model is calibrated to capture the relationship between NCEP data on potential predictors (i.e feature vectors) and the predictand. Grid search procedure is used to find the optimum range for each of the parameters. Subsequently, the optimum values of parameters are obtained from the selected ranges, using the stochastic search technique of genetic algorithm. The SVM model is subsequently validated, and then used to obtain projections of predictand for simulations of CGCM3. Results show that precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover are projected to increase in future for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with theCOMMIT. The projected increase in predictands is high for A2 scenario and is least for B1 scenario. The wind speed is not projected to change in future for the study region for all the aforementioned scenarios. The solar radiation is projected to decrease in future for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT. To assess the monthly streamflow responses to climate change, two methodologies are considered in this study namely (i) downscaling and disaggregating the meteorological variables for use as inputs in SWAT and (ii) directly downscaling streamflow using SVM. SWAT is a physically based, distributed, continuous time hydrological model that operates on a daily time scale. The hydrometeorologic variables obtained using SVM downscaling models are disaggregated to daily scale by using k-nearest neighbor method developed in this study. The other inputs to SWAT are DEM, land use/land cover map, soil map, which are considered to be the same for the present and future scenarios. The SWAT model has projected an increase in future streamflows for A1B, A2 andB1 scenarios, whereas no trend is discerned with the COMMIT. The monthly projections of streamflow at river basin scale are also obtained using two SVM based downscaling models. The first SVM model (called one-stage SVM model) considered feature vectors prepared based on monthly values of large scale atmospheric variables as inputs, whereas the second SVM model (called two-stage SVM model) considered feature vectors prepared from the monthly projections of cardinal variables as inputs. The trend in streamflows projected using two-stage SVM model is found to be similar to that projected by SWAT for each of the scenarios considered. The streamflow is not projected to change for any of the scenarios considered with the one-stage SVM downscaling model. The relative performance of the SWAT and the two SVM downscaling models in simulating observed streamflows is evaluated. In general, all the three models are able to simulate the streamflows well. Nevertheless, the performance of SWAT model is better. Further, among the two SVM models, the performance of one-stage streamflow downscaling model is marginally better than that of the two-stage streamflow downscaling model.

L’étude de la variabilité du climat est désormais indispensable pour anticiper les conséquences des changements climatiques futurs. Nous disposons pour cela de quantité de données issues de modèles de circulation générale (GCMs). Néanmoins, ces modèles ne permettent qu’une résolution partielle des interactions entre le climat et les activités humaines entre autres parce que ces modèles ont des résolutions spatiales souvent trop faibles. Il existe aujourd’hui toute une variété de modèles répondant à cette problématique et dont l’objectif est de générer des variables climatiques à l’échelle locale àpartir de variables à grande échelle : ce sont les modèles de régionalisation ou encore appelés modèles de réduction d’échelle spatiale ou de downscaling en anglais.Cette thèse a pour objectif d’approfondir les connaissances à propos des modèles de downscaling statistiques (SDMs) parmi lesquels on retrouve plusieurs approches. Le travail s’articule autour de quatre objectifs : (i) comparer des modèles de réduction d’échelle statistiques (et dynamiques), (ii) étudier l’influence des biais des GCMs sur les SDMs au moyen d’une procédure de correction de biais, (iii) développer un modèle de réduction d’échelle qui prenne en compte la non-stationnarité spatiale et temporelle du climat dans un contexte de modélisation dite spatiale et enfin, (iv) établir une définitiondes saisons à partir d’une modélisation des régimes de circulation atmosphérique ou régimes de temps.L’intercomparaison de modèles de downscaling a permis de mettre au point une méthode de sélection de modèles en fonction des besoins de l’utilisateur. L’étude des biais des GCMs révèle une influence indéniable de ces derniers sur les sorties de SDMs et les apports de la correction des biais. Les différentes étapes du développement d’un modèle spatial de réduction d’échelle donnent des résultats très encourageants. La définition des saisons par des régimes de temps se révèle être un outil efficace d’analyse et de modélisation saisonnière.Tous ces travaux de “Climatologie Statistique” ouvrent des perspectives pertinentes, non seulement en termes méthodologiques ou de compréhension de climat à l’échelle locale, mais aussi d’utilisations par les acteurs de la société. / The study of climate variability is vital in order to understand and anticipate the consequences of future climate changes. Large data sets generated by general circulation models (GCMs) are currently available and enable us to conduct studies in that direction. However, these models resolve only partially the interactions between climate and human activities, namely du to their coarse resolution. Nowadays there is a large variety of models coping with this issue and aiming at generating climate variables at local scale from large-scale variables : the downscaling models.The aim of this thesis is to increase the knowledge about statistical downscaling models (SDMs) wherein there is many approaches. The work conducted here pursues four main goals : (i) to discriminate statistical (and dynamical) downscaling models, (ii) to study the influences of GCMs biases on the SDMs through a bias correction scheme, (iii) to develop a statistical downscaling model accounting for climate spatial and temporal non-stationarity in a spatial modelling context and finally, (iv) to define seasons thanks to a weather typing modelling.The intercomparison of downscaling models led to set up a model selection methodology according to the end-users needs. The study of the biases of the GCMs reveals the impacts of those biases on the SDMs simulations and the positive contributions of the bias correction procedure. The different steps of the spatial SDM development bring some interesting and encouraging results. The seasons defined by the weather regimes are relevant for seasonal analyses and modelling.All those works conducted in a “Statistical Climatologie” framework lead to many relevant perspectives, not only in terms of methodology or knowlegde about local-scale climate, but also in terms of use by the society.

The complex and coupled physical processes taking place in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface are described in Global Circulation Models (GCMs). These models have become the main tools to simulate climate variability and project future climate change. GCMs have the potential to give physically reliable estimates of climate change at global, continental or regional scales, but their projections are currently of too course horizontal resolution to capture the smaller scale features of climate and climate change. This situation stems from the fact that GCM simulations, which are effectively three-dimensional simulations of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system, are computationally extremely expensive. Therefore, downscaling techniques are utilised to do perform simulations over preselected areas that are of sufficiently detailed to represent the climate features at the meso-scale. Dynamic regional climate models (RCMs), based on the same laws of physics as GCMs but applied at high resolution over areas of interest, have become the main tools to project regional climate change. The research presented here utilises the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution global atmospheric model that can be applied in stretched-grid mode to function as a regional climate model. As is the case with RCMs, CCAM has the potential to improve climate simulations along rough topography and coastal areas when applied at high spatial resolution, whilst side-stepping the lateral boundary condition problems experienced by typical limited-area RCMs. CCAM has been developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. The objective in the study is to test capability of a regional climate model, CCAM, to realistically simulate cumulus convection at different spatial scales over regions with steep topography, such as the eastern escarpment of South Africa. Since both GCMs and RCMs are known to have large biases and shortcomings in simulating rainfall over the steep eastern escarpment of southern Africa and in particular Lesotho, the paper “Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern escarpment” (Chapter 3) has a focus on verifying model performance over this region. In the paper the CCAM simulations include six 200 km resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations that are forced with sea surface temperatures and one 50 km resolution National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis simulation that is forced with sea surface temperatures and synoptic scale atmospheric forcings. These simulations are verified against rain gauge data sets and satellite rainfall estimates. The results reveal that at these resolutions the model is capable of simulating the key synoptic-scale features of southern African rainfall patterns. However, rainfall totals are often drastically overestimated. A key aspect of model performance is the representation of the diurnal cycle in convection. For the case of South Africa, the realistic representation of the complex patterns of rainfall over regions of steep topography is also of particular importance. At a larger spatial scale, the model also needs to be capable of representing the west-east rainfall gradient found over South Africa. The ability of CCAM to simulate the diurnal cycle in rainfall as well as the complex spatial patterns of rainfall over eastern South Africa is analysed in “High Resolution Rainfall Modelling over the Eastern Escarpment of South Africa” (Chapter 4). The simulations described in the paper have been performed at 8km resolutions in the horizontal and span a thirty-year long period. These are the highest resolution climate simulations obtained to date for the southern African region, and were obtained through the downscaling reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The simulations provide a test of the robustness of the CCAM convective rainfall parameterisations when applied at high spatial resolution, in particular in representing the complex rainfall patterns of the eastern escarpment of South Africa. / M (Geography and Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

The complex and coupled physical processes taking place in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface are described in Global Circulation Models (GCMs). These models have become the main tools to simulate climate variability and project future climate change. GCMs have the potential to give physically reliable estimates of climate change at global, continental or regional scales, but their projections are currently of too course horizontal resolution to capture the smaller scale features of climate and climate change. This situation stems from the fact that GCM simulations, which are effectively three-dimensional simulations of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system, are computationally extremely expensive. Therefore, downscaling techniques are utilised to do perform simulations over preselected areas that are of sufficiently detailed to represent the climate features at the meso-scale. Dynamic regional climate models (RCMs), based on the same laws of physics as GCMs but applied at high resolution over areas of interest, have become the main tools to project regional climate change. The research presented here utilises the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution global atmospheric model that can be applied in stretched-grid mode to function as a regional climate model. As is the case with RCMs, CCAM has the potential to improve climate simulations along rough topography and coastal areas when applied at high spatial resolution, whilst side-stepping the lateral boundary condition problems experienced by typical limited-area RCMs. CCAM has been developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. The objective in the study is to test capability of a regional climate model, CCAM, to realistically simulate cumulus convection at different spatial scales over regions with steep topography, such as the eastern escarpment of South Africa. Since both GCMs and RCMs are known to have large biases and shortcomings in simulating rainfall over the steep eastern escarpment of southern Africa and in particular Lesotho, the paper “Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern escarpment” (Chapter 3) has a focus on verifying model performance over this region. In the paper the CCAM simulations include six 200 km resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations that are forced with sea surface temperatures and one 50 km resolution National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis simulation that is forced with sea surface temperatures and synoptic scale atmospheric forcings. These simulations are verified against rain gauge data sets and satellite rainfall estimates. The results reveal that at these resolutions the model is capable of simulating the key synoptic-scale features of southern African rainfall patterns. However, rainfall totals are often drastically overestimated. A key aspect of model performance is the representation of the diurnal cycle in convection. For the case of South Africa, the realistic representation of the complex patterns of rainfall over regions of steep topography is also of particular importance. At a larger spatial scale, the model also needs to be capable of representing the west-east rainfall gradient found over South Africa. The ability of CCAM to simulate the diurnal cycle in rainfall as well as the complex spatial patterns of rainfall over eastern South Africa is analysed in “High Resolution Rainfall Modelling over the Eastern Escarpment of South Africa” (Chapter 4). The simulations described in the paper have been performed at 8km resolutions in the horizontal and span a thirty-year long period. These are the highest resolution climate simulations obtained to date for the southern African region, and were obtained through the downscaling reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The simulations provide a test of the robustness of the CCAM convective rainfall parameterisations when applied at high spatial resolution, in particular in representing the complex rainfall patterns of the eastern escarpment of South Africa. / M (Geography and Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015

Soil water content (SWC) measurements are crucial worldwide for hydrological predictions, agricultural activities, and monitoring the progress of reclamation on disturbed land from industrial activities. In colder climates, snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements are equally important, and directly contribute to improved spring water supply forecasting. Both these variables, SWC and SWE, are commonly measured with either point-scale (e.g. soil cores for SWC and snow tubes for SWE) or large-scale (remote sensing) methods. The cosmic-ray soil moisture probe (CRP) was recently developed to fill this gap between small- and large-scale measurements. The CRP provides an average SWC reading in a landscape-scale measurement footprint (300 m radius) by taking advantage of the relationship between aboveground neutrons and soil water. Although the CRP has proved accurate in relatively homogenous sites, it has not been validated at highly heterogeneous sites. Since snow is simply frozen water, the CRP also has the potential for monitoring SWE at the landscape-scale. However, no calibration has been developed for measuring SWE with the CRP. This thesis aimed to further validate the use of a CRP for measuring SWC at a highly heterogeneous site, and calibrate a CRP for monitoring landscape-scale SWE at an agriculture field. The heterogeneous site used to validate the CRP for SWC measurement was an oil sand reclamation site made up of multiple test plots of varying soil layer treatments. Despite the clear differences in soil texture at the site, the CRP-monitored SWC compared accurately to sampled soil water content and a network of soil moisture probes. With the use of modeling, it was also possible to downscale the CRP measurement to the plot scale. For calibrating the CRP for monitoring SWE, an empirical calibration function was developed based on the relationship between the CRP-measured neutrons and SWE from snow surveys with snow tubes. Using the calibration equation, CRP-estimated SWE closely matched SWE measured from snow surveys. Differences were attributed to mid winter and spring melting of the snowpack along with varying soil water content in the top of the soil profile. This research demonstrates the usefulness of the CRP for monitoring SWC at unique sites and its ability to monitor SWE at the landscape-scale.

La humedad del suelo es la variable que regula los intercambios de agua, energía, y carbono entre la tierra y la atmósfera. Mediciones precisas de humedad son necesarias para una gestión sostenible de los recursos hídricos, para mejorar las predicciones meteorológicas y climáticas, y para la detección y monitorización de sequías e inundaciones. Esta tesis se centra en la medición de la humedad superficial de la Tierra desde el espacio, a escalas global y regional. Estudios teóricos y experimentales han demostrado que la teledetección pasiva de microondas en banda L es optima para la medición de humedad del suelo, debido a que la atmósfera es transparente a estas frecuencias, y a la relación directa de la emisividad del suelo con su contenido de agua. Sin embargo, el uso de la teledetección pasiva en banda L ha sido cuestionado en las últimas décadas, pues para conseguir la resolución temporal y espacial requeridas, un radiómetro convencional necesitaría una gran antena rotatoria, difícil de implementar en un satélite. Actualmente, hay tres principales propuestas para abordar este problema: (i) el uso de un radiómetro de apertura sintética, que es la solución implementada en la misión Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) de la ESA, en órbita desde noviembre del 2009; (ii) el uso de un radiómetro ligero de grandes dimensiones y un rádar operando en banda L, que es la solución que ha adoptado la misión Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) de la NASA, con lanzamiento previsto en 2014; (iii) el desarrollo de técnicas de desagregación de píxel que permitan mejorar la resolución espacial de las observaciones. La primera parte de la tesis se centra en el estudio del algoritmo de recuperación de humedad del suelo a partir de datos SMOS, que es esencial para obtener estimaciones de humedad con alta precisión. Se analizan diferentes configuraciones con datos simulados, considerando (i) la opción de añadir información a priori de los parámetros que dominan la emisión del suelo en banda L —humedad, rugosidad, temperatura del suelo, albedo y opacidad de la vegetación— con diferentes incertidumbres asociadas, y (ii) el uso de la polarización vertical y horizontal por separado, o del primer parámetro de Stokes. Se propone una configuración de recuperación de humedad óptima para SMOS. La resolución espacial de los radiómetros de SMOS y SMAP (40-50 km) es adecuada para aplicaciones globales, pero limita la aplicación de los datos en estudios regionales, donde se requiere una resolución de 1-10 km. La segunda parte de esta tesis contiene tres novedosas propuestas de mejora de resolución espacial de estos datos: • Se ha desarrollado un algoritmo basado en la deconvolución de los datos SMOS que permite mejorar la resolución espacial de las medidas. Los resultados de su aplicación a datos simulados y a datos obtenidos con un radiómetro aerotransportado muestran que es posible mejorar el producto de resolución espacial y resolución radiométrica de los datos. • Se presenta un algoritmo para mejorar la resolución espacial de las estimaciones de humedad de SMOS utilizando datos MODIS en el visible/infrarrojo. Los resultados de su aplicación a algunas de las primeras imágenes de SMOS indican que la variabilidad espacial de la humedad del suelo se puede capturar a 32, 16 y 8 km. • Un algoritmo basado en detección de cambios para combinar los datos del radiómetro y el rádar de SMAP en un producto de humedad a 10 km ha sido desarrollado y validado utilizando datos simulados y datos experimentales aerotransportados. Este trabajo se ha desarrollado en el marco de las actividades preparatorias de SMOS y SMAP, los dos primeros satélites dedicados a la monitorización de la variación temporal y espacial de la humedad de la Tierra. Los resultados presentados contribuyen a la obtención de estimaciones de humedad del suelo con la precisión y la resolución espacial necesarias para un mejor conocimiento del ciclo del agua y una mejor gestión de los recursos hídricos. / Soil moisture is a key state variable of the Earth's system; it is the main variable that links the Earth's water, energy and carbon cycles. Accurate observations of the Earth's changing soil moisture are needed to achieve sustainable land and water management, and to enhance weather and climate forecasting skill, flood prediction and drought monitoring. This Thesis focuses on measuring the Earth's surface soil moisture from space at global and regional scales. Theoretical and experimental studies have proven that L-band passive remote sensing is optimal for soil moisture sensing due to its all-weather capabilities and the direct relationship between soil emissivity and soil water content under most vegetation covers. However, achieving a temporal and spatial resolution that could satisfy land applications has been a challenge to passive microwave remote sensing in the last decades, since real aperture radiometers would need a large rotating antenna, which is difficult to implement on a spacecraft. Currently, there are three main approaches to solving this problem: (i) the use of an L-band synthetic aperture radiometer, which is the solution implemented in the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched in November 2009; (ii) the use of a large lightweight radiometer and a radar operating at L-band, which is the solution adopted by the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, scheduled for launch in 2014; (iii) the development of pixel disaggregation techniques that could enhance the spatial resolution of the radiometric observations. The first part of this work focuses on the analysis of the SMOS soil moisture inversion algorithm, which is crucial to retrieve accurate soil moisture estimations from SMOS measurements. Different retrieval configurations have been examined using simulated SMOS data, considering (i) the option of adding a priori information from parameters dominating the land emission at L-band —soil moisture, roughness, and temperature, vegetation albedo and opacity— with different associated uncertainties and (ii) the use of vertical and horizontal polarizations separately, or the first Stokes parameter. An optimal retrieval configuration for SMOS is suggested. The spatial resolution of SMOS and SMAP radiometers (~ 40-50 km) is adequate for global applications, but is a limiting factor to its application in regional studies, where a resolution of 1-10 km is needed. The second part of this Thesis contains three novel downscaling approaches for SMOS and SMAP: • A deconvolution scheme for the improvement of the spatial resolution of SMOS observations has been developed, and results of its application to simulated SMOS data and airborne field experimental data show that it is feasible to improve the product of the spatial resolution and the radiometric sensitivity of the observations by 49% over land pixels and by 30% over sea pixels. • A downscaling algorithm for improving the spatial resolution of SMOS-derived soil moisture estimates using higher resolution MODIS visible/infrared data is presented. Results of its application to some of the first SMOS images show the spatial variability of SMOS-derived soil moisture observations is effectively captured at the spatial resolutions of 32, 16, and 8 km. • A change detection approach for combining SMAP radar and radiometer observations into a 10 km soil moisture product has been developed and validated using SMAP-like observations and airborne field experimental data. This work has been developed within the preparatory activities of SMOS and SMAP, the two first-ever satellites dedicated to monitoring the temporal and spatial variation on the Earth's soil moisture. The results presented contribute to get the most out of these vital observations, that will further our understanding of the Earth's water cycle, and will lead to a better water resources management.

Physical and chemical heterogeneities cause the porous media transport parameters to vary with scale, and between these two types of heterogeneities geological heterogeneity is considered to be the most important source of scale-dependence of transport parameters. Subsurface processes associated with chemical alterations result in changing reservoir properties with interlinked spatial and temporal scale, and there is uncertainty in the evolution of those properties and the chemical processes. This dissertation provides a framework and procedures to quantify the spatiotemporal scaling characteristics of reservoir attributes and transport processes in heterogeneous media accounting for chemical alterations in the reservoir. Conventional flow scaling groups were used to assess their applicability in scaling of recovery and Mixing Zone Length (MZL) in presence of chemical reactivity and permeability heterogeneity through numerical simulations of CO₂ injection. It was found out that these scaling groups are not adequate enough to capture the scaling of recovery and transport parameters in the combined presence of chemical reactivity and physical heterogeneity. In this illustrative example, MZL was investigated as a function of spatial scale, temporal scale, multi-scale heterogeneity, and chemical reactivity; key conclusions are that 1) the scaling characteristics of MZL distinctly differ for low permeability and high permeability media, 2) heterogeneous media with spatial arrangements of both high and low permeability regions exhibit scaling characteristics of both high and low permeability media, 3) reactions affect scaling characteristics of MZL in heterogeneous media, 4) a simple rescaling can combine various MZL curves by merging them into a single MZL curve irrespective of the correlation length of heterogeneity, and 5) estimates of MZL (and consequently predictions of oil recovery) will fluctuate corresponding to displacements in a permeable medium whose lateral length is smaller than the correlation length of geological formation. We illustrate and extend the procedure of estimating Representative Elementary Volume (REV) to include temporal scale by coupling it with spatial scale. The current practice is to perform spatial averaging of attributes and account for residual variability by calibration and history matching. This results in poor predictions of future reservoir performance. The proposed semi-analytical technique to scale-up in both space and time provides guidance for selection of spatial and temporal discretizations that takes into account the uncertainties due to sub-processes. Finally, a probabilistic particle tracking (PT) approach is proposed to scale-up flow and transport of diffusion-reaction (DR) processes while addressing multi-scale and multi-physics nature of DR mechanisms and also maintaining consistent reservoir heterogeneity at different levels of scales. This multi-scale modeling uses a hierarchical approach which is based on passing the macroscopic subsurface heterogeneity down to the finer scales and then returning more accurate reactive flow response. This PT method can quantify the impact of reservoir heterogeneity and its uncertainties on statistical properties such as reaction surface area and MZL, at various scales. / text

Anthropogenic climate change significantly affects water resources. River flows in mountainous regions are driven by snowmelt and are therefore highly sensitive to increases in temperature resulting from climate change. Climate-driven hydrological changes are potentially significant for the fluvial geomorphology of river systems. In unchanging climatic and tectonic conditions, a river's morphology will develop in equilibrium with inputs of water and sediment, but climate change represents a potential forcing on these variables that may push the system into disequilibrium and cause significant changes in river morphology. Geomorphic factors, such as channel geometry, planform, and sediment transport, are major determinants of the value of river systems, including their suitability for threatened and endangered species and for human uses of water. This dissertation research uses a hierarchical modeling approach to investigate potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on river morphology in the interior Pacific Northwest. The research will address the following theoretical and methodological objectives: 1) Develop downscaled climate change scenarios, based on regional climate-model output, including changes in daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. 2) Estimate how climate change scenarios affect river discharge and suspended-sediment load, using a basin-scale hydrologic model. 3) Examine potential impacts of climate-driven hydrologic changes on stream power and shear stress, bedload sediment transport, and river morphology, including channel geometry and planform. The downscaling approach, based on empirically-estimated local topographic lapse rates, produces high-resolution climate grids with positive forecast skill. The hydrologic modeling results indicate that projected climate change in the study rivers will change the annual cycle of hydrology, with increased winter discharge, a decrease in the magnitude of the spring snowmelt peak, and decreased summer discharge. Geomorphic modeling results suggest that changes in reach-averaged bedload transport are highly sensitive to likely changes in the recurrence interval of the critical discharge needed to mobilize bed sediments. This dissertation research makes an original contribution to the climate-change impacts literature by linking Earth processes across a wide range of spatial scales to project changes in river systems that may be significant for management of these systems for societal and ecological benefits. This dissertation includes unpublished co-authored material.