<p>The three essays in this dissertation explore the role of fluctuations in aggregate volatility and global temperature as sources of systemic risk. </p><p>The first essay proposes a production-based asset pricing model and provides empirical evidence suggesting that compensation for volatility risk is closely related to an unexplored characteristic of a firm, namely, its reliance on skilled labor. I propose a model in which aggregate growth has time-varying volatility, and linear adjustment costs in labor increase with the skill of a worker. The model predicts that expected returns increase with a firm's reliance on skilled labor, as well as compensation for fluctuations in aggregate uncertainty. Consequently, a rise in aggregate uncertainty predicts an increase in expected returns as well as in cautiousness in hiring and firing. This impact is larger for firms with a high share of skilled workers because their labor is more costly to adjust. I empirically test the implications of the model using occupational estimates to construct a measure of a firm's reliance on skilled labor, and find a positive and statistically significant cross-sectional relation between the reliance on skilled labor and expected returns. Empirical estimates also show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty leads to a rise in expected returns, and this impact is larger for firms which rely heavily on skilled labor; thereby, a firm's exposure to aggregate volatility is positively related to its reliance on skilled labor.</p><p>In the second and third essay, co-authored with Ravi Bansal, we explore the impact of global temperature on financial markets and the macroeconomy. In tho second essay we explore if temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. First, using data on global capital markets we find that the risk-exposure of these returns to temperature shocks, i.e., their temperature beta, is a highly significant variable in accounting for cross-sectional differences in expected returns. Second, using a panel of countries we show that GDP growth is negatively related to global temperature, suggesting that temperature can be a source of aggregate risk. To interpret the empirical evidence, we present a quantitative consumption-based long-run risks model that quantitatively accounts for the observed cross-sectional differences in temperature betas, the compensation for temperature risk, and the connection between aggregate growth and temperature risks. </p><p>The last essay proposes a general equilibrium model that simultaneously models the world economy and global climate to understand the impact of climate change on the economy. We use this model to evaluate the role of temperature in determining asset prices, and to compute utility-based welfare costs as well as dollar costs of insuring against temperature fluctuations. We find that the temperature related utility-costs are about 0.78% of consumption, and the total dollar costs of completely insuring against temperature variation are 2.46% of world GDP. If we allow for temperature-triggered natural disasters to impact growth, insuring against temperature variation raise to 5.47% of world GDP.</p> / Dissertation

<p>Lic.-avh. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013</p>

This paper will analyze the market reactions to news announcements of a corporate headquarter relocations for 76 firms through the time period of 1984 to 2012. Previous literature has identified that the market interprets capital expenditure decisions and acts on these interpretations, which can be found in the changes of the price of a security. The study uses an event-study methodology as well as a multiple-regression model to examine the contextual factors that play a role in influencing the corporate headquarter relocation decision. For the event-study, the event windows being used are two-day (-1,1), four-day (-2,2), fourteen-day (- 7,7), and two nineteen-day (-14,5 and -5,14) periods. The multiple regression model tests the relationship between the Average Cumulative Abnormal Returns over the event period three days prior to and after the day of the announcement (-3,3) against a number of other contextual variables.

Der Einfluss von Bildung gewinnt gesellschaftlich und politisch an Bedeutung. Auch im wissenschaftlichen Bereich zeigt sich dies über eine vielseitige Diskussion zum Einfluss von Bildung auf das Einkommen. In dieser Arbeit werden nationale und regionale Disparitäten in der monetären Wertschätzung von allgemeinem Humankapital aufgedeckt und diskutiert. Dafür werden verschiedene Verfahren diskutiert und basierend darauf Intervalle für die mittleren Bildungsrenditen bestimmt. Im ersten Abschnitt wird die Thematik theoretisch über zwei verschiedene Modellansätze fundiert und kritisch diskutiert. Anschließend folgt die Darstellung des aktuellen empirischen Forschungsbestands. Der Hauptteil der Arbeit beginnt mit der Darstellung des verwendeten Datensatzes und seiner kritischen Repräsentativitätsprüfung. Eine nähere Variablenbeschreibung mit deskriptiver Analyse dient zur Erklärung der verwendeten Größen. Darauffolgend werden bestehende Verfahren zur Schätzung von Bildungsrenditen diskutiert. Unter ausschließlicher Berücksichtigung der Erwerbstätigen zeigt das 3SLS-Verfahren die besten Eigenschaften. Bezieht man jedoch alle Erwerbspersonen in die Analyse mit ein, so erweist sich das Heckman-Verfahren als sehr geeignet. Die Analyse - zunächst auf nationaler Ebene - bestätigt weitestgehend die bestehenden Erkenntnisse der Literatur. Eine Separierung des Datensatzes auf verschiedene Alterscluster, Voll- und Teilerwerbstätige sowie Erwerbstätige in der Privatwirtschaft und im öffentlichen Dienst zeigen keine signifikanten Unterschiede in der Höhe der gezahlten durchschnittlichen Bildungsrenditen. Anders verhält es sich bei der regionalen Analyse. Zunächst werden Ost- und Westdeutschland separat betrachtet. Für diese erste Analyse lassen sich über 95 %-Konfidenzintervalle deutliche Unterschiede in der Höhe der Bildungsrenditen ermitteln. Aufbauend auf diese Ergebnisse wird die Analyse vertieft. Eine Separierung auf Bundesländerebene und ein weiterer Vergleich der Konfidenzintervalle folgen. Zur besseren statistischen Vergleichbarkeit der Ergebnisse wird neben dem 3SLS-Verfahren, angewendet auf die separierten Datensätze, auch ein Modell ohne die Notwendigkeit der Separierung gewählt. Hierbei ist die Variation der Regionen über Interaktionsterme berücksichtigt. Dieses Regressionsmodell wird auf das OLS- und das Heckman-Verfahren angewendet. Der Vorteil hierbei ist, dass die Koeffizienten auf Gleichheit getestet werden können. Dabei kristallisieren sich deutlich unterschiedliche Bildungsrenditen für Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, aber auch für Sachsen-Anhalt und Thüringen im Vergleich zu den restlichen Bundesländern Deutschlands heraus. Diese Länder zeichnen sich durch eine besonders hohe jährliche Verzinsung von allgemeinem Humankapital aus. Es folgt eine Diskussion über mögliche Ursachen für die regional verschiedenen Bildungsrenditen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass in den Bundesländern mit hoher Rendite das mittlere Einkommensniveau und auch das durchschnittliche Preisniveau tendenziell geringer sind. Weiterhin wird deutlich, dass bei höheren relativen Abweichungen der durchschnittlichen Einkommen höhere Renditen zu verzeichnen sind. Auch die Wanderungsbewegungen je nach Qualifikation unterscheiden sich. Unter zusätzlicher Berücksichtigung der Arbeitslosenquoten zeigt sich in den Ländern mit hoher Rendite eine tendenziell höhere Arbeitslosigkeit. Im zusammenfassenden Fazit der Arbeit werden abschließend die Erkenntnisse gewürdigt. Dabei ist zu bemerken, dass der Beitrag einen Start in die bundesländerweite Analyse liefert, die eine Fortführung auf beispielsweise eine mehrperiodische Betrachtung anregt. / The impact of education becomes politically and for the society more important. In research area the higher relevance is indicated by a distinctive discussion about, for example, the influence from education to earnings. This thesis shows national and regional disparities with respect to the monetary appreciation to general human capital. Therefore different econometric methods are discussed and based on that, intervals for the returns to education are estimated. The first chapter presents the theoretical fundament using two different models, which are critically discussed in the text. Afterwards the existing empirical literature is shown. The main part starts with a description of the dataset and a discussion about its representativeness. A closer examination to the variables follows using descriptive statistics and verbal explanations. The estimation part starts with a discussion about common methods to measure returns to education. Looking at employees exclusively, 3SLS gives best performance. However, by extension the analysis to the overall manpower Heckman-method is best. The national analysis confirms the results from the existing literature. Within the next step the dataset is separated to have a closer look at different cohorts, full- and part-time worker, as well as public- and private-sector worker. Comparing these groups with each other the estimated returns to education are not statistically different. However, results change by estimating regional returns to education for Germany. First the dataset is splitted into two regions, the eastern- and the western-region. Comparing the estimated 95 %-confidence intervals, differences are significant between both regions in Germany. Hence, it is worth to intensify the regional analysis. The next step is a further separation of the dataset to a federal-state-analysis. Again, the comparisons of the resulting confidence intervals show partially no overlapping confidence intervals. Separating the dataset gives no possibility to compare the coefficients with statistic tests. Because of that a new regression model without the necessity of separation is introduced. For this purpose the variation of the regions are included by interaction terms. This model can be estimated using OLS- and Heckman-method. The advantage of this procedure is that the schooling-coefficients can be tested on statistical equality. Irrespective which method is used, differences in the return to education can be estimated for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania especially and for Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. These three states tend to a higher monetary return to general human capital compared to the other federal states. Thereafter a discussion follows about possible causes for the estimated regional heterogeneous returns to education. It is shown that federal states with a high return to education lean towards a lower middle level of income and a lower price level on average. In addition to that, there is a relation between a higher relative deviation from average income and higher returns to education. Looking at migration movements between federal states, it is shown that there are differences in the qualification levels. Moreover, regions with a higher unemployment rate tend to result in higher returns as well. The summarizing conclusion appreciates the scientific findings. For that it has to be said, that this work gives a start for an analysis which should have a closer look to different parts of Germany. It gives an incentive to pursue with, for example, an analysis for more than one year.

Purpose: The main objective of this thesis is to study if acquiring companies’ shareholders on the Swedish market earn abnormal returns after an M&amp;A and further to examine possible differences in the abnormal return depending on whether the M&amp;A is announced during a period with high level of merger activity or low level of merger activity. Method: This thesis uses a quantitative research method and an event study to examine abnormal returns. The abnormal return is obtained by calculating the difference between the actual return and the normal return. Stock prices for the thirty companies in the sample have been collected; fifteen M&amp;As from periods characterized by high merger activity and fifteen M&amp;As from periods of low merger activity. The event window consists in total of eleven days, five days before the announcement day and five days after. Day minus six is used as an index. Finally, the results have been tested with t-statistics for further analyzing. Conclusion: Our findings regarding the Swedish market in this thesis is not consistent with most of the previous research. Earlier research claims negative abnormal returns for the acquiring companies’ shareholders. In our study we have found that the Swedish acquiring companies’ shareholders actually earn positive abnormal returns after an M&amp;A. Moreover, the abnormal returns are higher for M&amp;As announced during times with high level of merger activity on the market compared to the abnormal returns for M&amp;As announced when the level activity of merger is low. / Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka om förvärvande företags aktieägare på den svenska marknaden uppnår onormal avkastning efter ett företagsförvärv. Studien undersöker även skillnader i onormal avkastning till det förvärvande företaget beroende på om förvärvet genomförts under en tidsperiod med hög respektive låg aktivitet av företagsförvärv på marknaden. Metod: Denna uppsats använder sig av en kvantitativ forskningsmetod samt en eventstudie för att undersöka onormal avkastning. Den onormala avkastningen erhålles genom att beräkna skillnaden mellan den faktiska avkastningen efter ett företagsförvärv med den normala avkastningen om förvärvet inte genomförts. Aktiepriset för de trettio företagen i urvalet har samlats in, hälften av urvalet är hämtat från en period med hög förvärvsaktivitet och resterande från en period med låg förvärvsaktivitet. Händelsefönstret består av elva dagar, fem dagar före och fem dagar efter tillkännagivandet av företagsförvärvet. Dag minus sex används som index. Slutligen har resultatens testats med t-test för vidare analys. Slutsats: Våra resultat gällande den svenska marknaden är inte samstämmiga med de flesta av de presenterade tidigare forskningarna. Enligt mycket tidigare forskning erhåller förvärvande företagens aktieägare negativ onormal avkastning medan vår studie av svenska företag visar positiv onormal avkastning till följd av ett företagsförvärv. Dessutom är den onormala avkastningen högre för företagsförvärv som genomförs i perioder med hög aktivitet av förvärv på marknaden jämfört med den onormala avkastningen för företagsförvärv som genomförs när aktivitetsnivån på förvärv är låg.

In this dissertation, we first develop a simple two-period model to examine the parent's optimal choice of children's time. We identify factors such as wage rate, school fees, education returns, degree of children's altruism toward their parents and the parents' discounting rate that influence the parents' optimal choice, and discuss their impacts on the optimal choice. Children's time is an important resource for rural households in developing economies, and it is typically allocated by the parents. Two basic uses for this resource are: working in the labor market and attending schools. Schooling today may make children more productive in the future. The opportunity cost of schooling is the forgone wage rate in the labor market. Allocation of children's time is therefore mainly determined by education return, wage rate in labor market and school fees. Many existing models in the literature cannot explain the coexistence of schooling, poverty and the coexistence of child labor and affluence. We extend our basic model to explain the above two paradoxes. We show that, when education return is high and the household is willing to endure extra hardship caused by the child attending school, the coexistence of schooling and poverty can emerge. On the other hand, when the wage rate for child labor and schooling fees are higher than education return, affluence and child labor can co-exist. Governments have adopted various policy tools to fight against child labor, among which the compulsory education law and free education programs stand out. Our basic model is then extended to examine how these two types of government policies may impact child labor. We show the relative performance of the two policies depend crucially on several factors, including the enforcement and the costs to the household of the compulsory education law. We use the recent Chinese experience in changing the compulsory education law to free education plan to illustrate and verify our theoretical prediction.

We investigate whether multiple large shareholders (MLS) play an internal corporate governance role in mitigating agency problems between the controlling shareholder and minority shareholders in a cross-country sample of public firms. We draw our conclusion by examining the market reaction (in terms of bidder announcement period abnormal returns) to acquisition announcements made by firms with and without MLS in their ownership structure. Using an international sample of acquisition announcements made by firms with at least one large shareholder from 10 Western European and 5 East Asian countries between 1996 and 2000, we find the presence of MLS, their voting rights, relative voting power, the number of blockholders and the relative voting power of these blockholders have a positive and significant impact on bidder announcement period abnormal returns. We also find that the legal institutions such as disclosure requirement, investor protection, common-law legal origin and anti-self-dealing have positive effects on bidder announcement period abnormal returns.

We investigate whether multiple large shareholders (MLS) play an internal corporate governance role in mitigating agency problems between the controlling shareholder and minority shareholders in a cross-country sample of public firms. We draw our conclusion by examining the market reaction (in terms of bidder announcement period abnormal returns) to acquisition announcements made by firms with and without MLS in their ownership structure. Using an international sample of acquisition announcements made by firms with at least one large shareholder from 10 Western European and 5 East Asian countries between 1996 and 2000, we find the presence of MLS, their voting rights, relative voting power, the number of blockholders and the relative voting power of these blockholders have a positive and significant impact on bidder announcement period abnormal returns. We also find that the legal institutions such as disclosure requirement, investor protection, common-law legal origin and anti-self-dealing have positive effects on bidder announcement period abnormal returns.

This paper examines tracking stock issuances, a relatively uncommon method of equity restructuring. I utilize likely the entire population of tracking stock issuances on US exchanges – from the first ever in October 1984 to the most recent one in November 2009 – in order to analyze the effect that they have on the shortrun excess returns of issuing companies. I analyze the excess returns of companies that issue tracking stock that trade in the US, one year before and one year after completion of their restructuring. The results of this paper indicate that companies perform worse relative to a benchmark market index in the year following their tracking stock restructuring. However, it is important to note that the number of observations studied is relatively small, as there have been only 41 issuances of tracking stock since the first recorded case. This suggests that more data and greater research are necessary in order to more accurately measure the effects of tracking stock restructurings. With the limited data available, I find that there is a statistically significant decrease in excess stock returns following tracking stock issuances.

Investment decisions grounded in personal values and societal norms has seen a growth in the last decades, to a point where large institutional investors are abstaining from certain industries that share a specific characteristic altogether. The affiliation with sinful industries that promote human vice is not viewed as socially responsible in the eyes of the public, a reason why socially responsible investment funds that screen out these companies has experienced an increase in popularity. This study sets out to investigate the performance of American sin stocks in an attempt to increase the awareness of how these shunned industries has performed. While the existing literature provides evidence which proves sin stocks outperforms the market, we will provide further evidence concentrating on a mix of industries previously not focused on. Additionally we will extend the observation period beyond what has been done in the past. In this study, the definition of sin incorporates the industries of alcohol, defense, gambling and tobacco, and investigates the performance of a survivorship-free sample of 159 companies between July 1973 and June 2012. As performance measure, the four factor model is employed to capture any abnormal performance in relation to the market with three additional risk factors. In addition, we set out to investigate the performance of the different industries individually, to find if there is any that acts as a driver of the performance. Further, we look into the persistency of the performance over time. We find that the sample outperforms the market with 5.8% annually, and where the tobacco industry stands out with the highest abnormal return, the other industries grouped together still produce significant outperformance. The sinful index examined in this degree project has shown persistent performance, with no obvious trends of growth or decline. Unlike what has been found in previous research, the sample has shown a substantial difference in performance depending on the weighting scheme applied, not only individually for the industries, but also collectively.