Proefschrift Universiteit van Amsterdam. / Met index, lit. opg. en samenvatting in het Engels.

Proefschrift Universiteit Maastricht. / Auteursnaam op omslag: André J. Hoogstrate. Samenvatting in het Nederlands. Met lit. opg. - Met een samenvatting in het Nederlands.

Proefschrift Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam.

Proefschrift Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam. / Lit. opg.: p. 223-235. - Met een samenvatting in het Nederlands.

This dissertation investigates the role of reference-dependent preferences in different areas of application, both from an empirical/experimental and a theoretical perspective. Despite their common focus, all chapters are self-contained and can be read independently. In the first chapter, entitled "Does Loss Aversion Beat Procrastination? A Behavioral Health Intervention at the Gym", I analyze the implications of reference-dependent preferences in the domains of self-control and optimal incentive design. Financial incentives are a common tool to encourage overcoming self-control problems and developing beneficial habits. There are different means by which such incentives can be provided, yet, up to date there is little empirical evidence on the relative effectiveness of different incentive designs. I present the results of a field experiment that explores whether and how incentives that are economically equivalent but framed differently affect the likelihood of exercising at a gym. I find that framing incentives in terms of losses, meaning individuals lose cash incentives by not exercising, encourages more frequent visits to the gym than framing incentives in terms of financial gains. After removing these incentives, I observe habit formation in gym exercise only if incentives were framed as losses rather than gains. The findings are consistent with the concept of reference-dependent preferences and loss aversion and suggest that cost reductions and performance improvements can be achieved if opting to frame incentives in terms of losses. The second chapter, entitled "Salience-adjusted Expectation-based Reference Points: Theory and Experiment", studies the consequences of reference-dependent preferences in the domain of decision making under uncertainty. Recent theories of expectation-based reference-dependent preferences offer a structured approach of the formation of reference points, yet do not incorporate important context-specific characteristics. One implicit assumption is that individuals rationally form their reference point as expectations, by correctly predicting the probabilistic environment they are facing. A second assumption is that in subsequent unanticipated decisionmaking problems, individuals consider previously formed lagged expectations as their reference point. In an experimental setup, I demonstrate that specific contextual factors affect the composition of expectation-based reference points. First, while expectations are formed, outcomes that attract the moment of first focus receive a higher weight. Second, in subsequent unanticipated decision making under uncertainty, the outcomes of the choice set affect to which extent lagged expectations are considered as a reference point, depending on the associated intensity of gains and losses. Finally, apart from providing empirical evidence on the limitations of current theories of expectation-based reference-dependence, I present a theoretical extension that can overcome some of these limitations by allowing reference points to be contingent on salient contextual effects. In the third chapter, entitled "Competitive Persuasive Advertising under Consumer Loss Aversion", I examine the role of reference-dependent preferences in the domain of consumer choice. In particular, I analyze the effects of expectation-based loss aversion in imperfect competition when consumers’ gain-loss utility is susceptible to salience effects. I present a theoretical model in which consumers’ gain-loss utility associated with the expectation to buy the most salient products within their contextual environment is inflated upwards, whereas the gain-loss utility associated with the expectation to buy the least salient products is deflated downwards. Firms can strategically manage consumers’ gain-loss utility by investing in salience-enhancing activities, such as persuasive advertising. If consumers are initially aware of prices but uncertain about their individual match value from the purchase, persuasive advertising has strictly anticompetitive consequences. This is because it allows firms to mitigate consumers’ experienced losses from higher prices, which reduces competitivepressure. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

A integração dos países periféricos na globalização financeira foi acompanhada por diversas crises desde o início dos anos 1990. Essas crises contribuíram para o desenvolvimento de uma literatura sobre indicadores de vulnerabilidade externa que busca encontrar acúmulo de fragilidades nas economias emergentes, para proporcionar medidas capazes de contornar ou amenizar momentos de crise. A busca de sinais de vulnerabilidade se torna relevante frente ao cenário atual de uma potencial reversão de liquidez internacional, com a expectativa do mercado em relação à mudança da política monetária dos países centrais. O objetivo desta pesquisa é comparar, através de diversos indicadores, a posição de vulnerabilidade externa de Brasil, Índia, Indonésia, África do Sul e Turquia, os países emergentes sobre os quais o mercado possui as piores expectativas quanto à capacidade de resistência frente a um choque externo e que, por conta disso, foram apelidados de Fragile Five. / The integration of peripheral countries in financial globalization was accompanied by several crises since the early 1990. These crises contributed to the development of a branchof the international economy literature devoted to the study of external vulnerability indicators which seeks to find of weaknesses in the external structure of emerging economies so that the policy makers can take measures to circumvent or mitigate a crisis. The search for signs of vulnerability becomes significant in light of the current scenario, in which grows the possibility of a reversal in international liquidity, due to thechange of monetary policy in central countries. The objective of this research is to compare, through various external vulnerability indicators found along the literature, the external position of vulnerability of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, because these are the emerging countries for which the market has the worst expectations of resilience against external shock and, therefore, were called the Fragile Five.

Cette thèse est consacrée à l’étude des cycles. Ces derniers sont partout autour de nous, dans la nature comme dans la société. Pour autant, on s’intéressera ici exclusivement aux cycles économiques, financiers, de la demande d’énergie et même à ceux qui caractérisent le changement climatique.Certains de ces cycles sont très réguliers et donc facilement prédictibles; d’autres, par contre, sont clairement périodiques et de ce fait, les prévisions à leur sujet sont empreintes d’une grande incertitude. Les cycles que l’on étudiera dans cette thèse relèvent de cette dernière catégorie.Le travail est structuré en six chapitres.Le premier d’entre eux définit la problématique de la thèse. Il brosse, en particulier, un panorama des trois types de fluctuations étudiées en commençant par les cycles économiques. Ceux-ci se caractérisent par leur extrême irrégularité et par leur variété: cycles courts, cycles classiques d’une périodicité variable, mais égale en moyenne à dix années, cycles longs, encore connu sous le nom de Kondratieff, cycles de croissance, d’accélération, etc. Une attention toute particulière est réservée à l’étude du cycle économique classique (classical business cycle), mesuré par la série agrégée du Produit Intérieur Brut réel d’une économie et à sa datation, autrement dit à la détermination des pics et des creux, c’est-à-dire des points de retournement dans l’activité économique.Les cycles financiers sont ceux qui affectent les marchés du même nom. D’une particulière importance sont les bourses de valeurs, qui permettent à des investisseurs d’acheter des actions de sociétés cotées. L’avantage pour ces dernières de telles transactions réside dans l’apport de capitaux neufs. Classiquement, ces marchés se subdivisent en deux compartiments : le marché primaire et le secondaire. / This study is about cycles. Various cycles are all around us in nature, society and the humans body. However, our interest is in cycles in macroeconomic evolution. Specifically, we focus on business cycles, financial cycles, energy demand cycles and even in climatic change.Some cycles are very regular and therefore easily predictable. The cycles we investigate represent a distinct challenge for research as they are irregular, that is they do not have fixed periods. In many instances studying the cycles is preferred to studying the original as this allows the following:• Data compression/reduction;• Data smoothing, noise reduction, blurring;• Analysis of cycles in many instances is more robust;• Assessing performance of an investor or trader;• Modelling of peaks and troughs;• Comparing cycles (e.g. for synchronisation analysis).In our investigations we used a wide range of techniques – from quite straightforward linear regression (including proposed double-linear or LL-model) to sophisticated hybrid models, combining multivariate regression with artificial neural networks (ANN).The following highlights are mentionable:• Introduction of the concept of axiomatic definition of persistence;• The role of the Hurst exponent in analysis of cycles;• Establishing the link between axiomatic persistence and the Hurst exponent;• New fast method for estimation of Hurst exponent;• Hierarchical optimal dating of cycles in time series;• Hierarchical estimation of time series models, including ANN estimation.For our research we used both real data related to the South African national economy and simulated data. Wolfram Mathematica was used as the principal research tool.

A integração dos países periféricos na globalização financeira foi acompanhada por diversas crises desde o início dos anos 1990. Essas crises contribuíram para o desenvolvimento de uma literatura sobre indicadores de vulnerabilidade externa que busca encontrar acúmulo de fragilidades nas economias emergentes, para proporcionar medidas capazes de contornar ou amenizar momentos de crise. A busca de sinais de vulnerabilidade se torna relevante frente ao cenário atual de uma potencial reversão de liquidez internacional, com a expectativa do mercado em relação à mudança da política monetária dos países centrais. O objetivo desta pesquisa é comparar, através de diversos indicadores, a posição de vulnerabilidade externa de Brasil, Índia, Indonésia, África do Sul e Turquia, os países emergentes sobre os quais o mercado possui as piores expectativas quanto à capacidade de resistência frente a um choque externo e que, por conta disso, foram apelidados de Fragile Five. / The integration of peripheral countries in financial globalization was accompanied by several crises since the early 1990. These crises contributed to the development of a branchof the international economy literature devoted to the study of external vulnerability indicators which seeks to find of weaknesses in the external structure of emerging economies so that the policy makers can take measures to circumvent or mitigate a crisis. The search for signs of vulnerability becomes significant in light of the current scenario, in which grows the possibility of a reversal in international liquidity, due to thechange of monetary policy in central countries. The objective of this research is to compare, through various external vulnerability indicators found along the literature, the external position of vulnerability of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, because these are the emerging countries for which the market has the worst expectations of resilience against external shock and, therefore, were called the Fragile Five.

A integração dos países periféricos na globalização financeira foi acompanhada por diversas crises desde o início dos anos 1990. Essas crises contribuíram para o desenvolvimento de uma literatura sobre indicadores de vulnerabilidade externa que busca encontrar acúmulo de fragilidades nas economias emergentes, para proporcionar medidas capazes de contornar ou amenizar momentos de crise. A busca de sinais de vulnerabilidade se torna relevante frente ao cenário atual de uma potencial reversão de liquidez internacional, com a expectativa do mercado em relação à mudança da política monetária dos países centrais. O objetivo desta pesquisa é comparar, através de diversos indicadores, a posição de vulnerabilidade externa de Brasil, Índia, Indonésia, África do Sul e Turquia, os países emergentes sobre os quais o mercado possui as piores expectativas quanto à capacidade de resistência frente a um choque externo e que, por conta disso, foram apelidados de Fragile Five. / The integration of peripheral countries in financial globalization was accompanied by several crises since the early 1990. These crises contributed to the development of a branchof the international economy literature devoted to the study of external vulnerability indicators which seeks to find of weaknesses in the external structure of emerging economies so that the policy makers can take measures to circumvent or mitigate a crisis. The search for signs of vulnerability becomes significant in light of the current scenario, in which grows the possibility of a reversal in international liquidity, due to thechange of monetary policy in central countries. The objective of this research is to compare, through various external vulnerability indicators found along the literature, the external position of vulnerability of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, because these are the emerging countries for which the market has the worst expectations of resilience against external shock and, therefore, were called the Fragile Five.

Si, avec Max Weber, on admet la puissance des "obstacles spirituels" de type religieux et la profonde immixtion de l'Islam dans la vie - tant individuelle que sociale- des sociétés musulmanes, n'est- on pas fondé à s'interroger sur la viabilité, au sein de ces sociétés, de modèles financiers "occidentaux" où l'intérêt, déclaré ribâ par la plupart des fuqaha [jurisconsultes], joue un rôle prééminent ? A l'inverse, existe-t-il un "modèle financier islamique" capable de constituer, au moins pour les sociétés musulmanes, une alternative crédible aux multiples impasses auxquelles y mèneraient les modèles financiers dits "conventionnels" tels que développés par "le monde occidental" ? Ce "modèle" peut-il être fondé uniquement sur la prohibition de l'intérêt ? Et d'ailleurs, en quoi l'intérêt est-il ribâ ?… Tout intérêt est-il ribâ ? Telles sont quelques unes des questions qui ne cessent de hanter tous ceux qui se sont intéressés aux problèmes de (sous) développement en terre d'Islam. C'est, quelque part à l'intersection de ces deux faisceaux de questions qu'est né la "finance islamique". L'objet de cette thèse est d'étudier, par les outils de l'anthropologie, les mécanismes économiques d'expression de ce phénomène dans le contexte de la Mauritanie d'aujourd'hui / AIf we accept, with Max Weber, the power of religious "spiritual obstacles" and the deep interference of Islam in the life -individual and social as well- of Islamic societies, we can wonder about the viability, within theses societies, of financial "western" models, where interest, which is declared as usury by most jurists, plays a pre-eminent role. Conversely, is there an "Islamic financial model" able to constitute, at least for Islamic societies themselves, a credible alternative for multiple deadlocks in which conduct financial models called "conventional" as developed by "the western world?" Can this "model" be only based upon ribâ interdiction? Furthermore, in what thing interest does it constitute ribâ ? Is all interest ribâ ? These are some 6 ones among questions which always haunt all those interested in problems of (under) development in Islam land. It is somewhere at the intersection of those two sets of questions that "Islamic finance" was born. This thesis intends to study, through anthropology tools, economic mechanisms of this phenomenon expression in the context of Mauritania today