Uma das principais preocupações da macroeconomia é a compreensão da dinâmica da inflação no curto prazo. Entender como a inflação se relaciona com a atividade econômica é decisivo para traçar estratégias de desinflação, assim como, de determinação da trajetória de política monetária. Uma questão que surge é qual a forma exata da relação inflação-produto. Ou seja, podemos caracterizar essa relação como não linear? Se sim, qual a forma dessa não linearidade? Para responder a essas perguntas, estimou-se a relação inflação-produto de forma não-paramétrica através de um local linear kernel estimator. O resultado da estimação gerou uma forma funcional a qual foi aproximada pela estimação, via GMM, de uma curva de Phillips Novo-Keynesiana Híbrida. Essa abordagem foi aplicada para o Brasil a partir de 2000. As estimações sugeriram que a dinâmica da inflação brasileira é melhor descrita quando adiciona-se um termo cúbico relativo ao hiato do produto, ou seja, a inflação brasileira mostrou-se state-dependent. / One of the most important macroeconomics’ concerns is the comprehension about sort-run inflation dynamic. To understand how inflation relates to economic activity is crucial to decision-making in disinflation strategies, as well as in monetary policy paths. A question that arises is what does real form of relation inflation-output trade-off? Could one characterize it as a non-linear relation? If does, what is the shape of this non-linear relation? To answer those questions, we estimate the inflation-output relation non-parametrically using a local linear kernel estimator. The functional form achieved was approximated by a New-Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve, which one was estimated by GMM. This approach was applied to Brazil since 2000. We have found evidence that Brazilian inflation dynamic is better described adding a cubic term related to output gap, in other words, the Brazilian inflation is state-dependent.

Motivated by the classic works of Charles M. Stein, we focus on developing risk-estimation frameworks for denoising problems in both one-and two-dimensions. We assume a standard additive noise model, and formulate the denoising problem as one of estimating the underlying clean signal from noisy measurements by minimizing a risk corresponding to a chosen loss function. Our goal is to incorporate perceptually-motivated loss functions wherever applicable, as in the case of speech enhancement, with the squared error loss being considered for the other scenarios. Since the true risks are observed to depend on the unknown parameter of interest, we circumvent the roadblock by deriving finite-sample un-biased estimators of the corresponding risks based on Stein’s lemma. We establish the link with the multivariate parameter estimation problem addressed by Stein and our denoising problem, and derive estimators of the oracle risks. In all cases, optimum values of the parameters characterizing the denoising algorithm are determined by minimizing the Stein’s unbiased risk estimator (SURE). The key contribution of this thesis is the development of a risk-estimation approach for choosing the two critical parameters affecting the quality of nonparametric regression, namely, the order and bandwidth/smoothing parameters. This is a classic problem in statistics, and certain algorithms relying on derivation of suitable finite-sample risk estimators for minimization have been reported in the literature (note that all these works consider the mean squared error (MSE) objective). We show that a SURE-based formalism is well-suited to the regression parameter selection problem, and that the optimum solution guarantees near-minimum MSE (MMSE) performance. We develop algorithms for both glob-ally and locally choosing the two parameters, the latter referred to as spatially-adaptive regression. We observe that the parameters are so chosen as to tradeoff the squared bias and variance quantities that constitute the MSE. We also indicate the advantages accruing out of incorporating a regularization term in the cost function in addition to the data error term. In the more general case of kernel regression, which uses a weighted least-squares (LS) optimization, we consider the applications of image restoration from very few random measurements, in addition to denoising of uniformly sampled data. We show that local polynomial regression (LPR) becomes a special case of kernel regression, and extend our results for LPR on uniform data to non-uniformly sampled data also. The denoising algorithms are compared with other standard, performant methods available in the literature both in terms of estimation error and computational complexity. A major perspective provided in this thesis is that the problem of optimum parameter choice in nonparametric regression can be viewed as the selection of optimum parameters of a linear, shift-invariant filter. This interpretation is provided by deriving motivation out of the hallmark paper of Savitzky and Golay and Schafer’s recent article in IEEE Signal Processing Magazine. It is worth noting that Savitzky and Golay had shown in their original Analytical Chemistry journal article, that LS fitting of a fixed-order polynomial over a neighborhood of fixed size is equivalent to convolution with an impulse response that is fixed and can be pre-computed. They had provided tables of impulse response coefficients for computing the smoothed function and smoothed derivatives for different orders and neighborhood sizes, the resulting filters being referred to as Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filters. Thus, we provide the new perspective that the regression parameter choice is equivalent to optimizing for the filter impulse response length/3dB bandwidth, which are inversely related. We observe that the MMSE solution is such that the S-G filter chosen is of longer impulse response length (equivalently smaller cutoff frequency) at relatively flat portions of the noisy signal so as to smooth noise, and vice versa at locally fast-varying portions of the signal so as to capture the signal patterns. Also, we provide a generalized S-G filtering viewpoint in the case of kernel regression. Building on the S-G filtering perspective, we turn to the problem of dynamic feature computation in speech recognition. We observe that the methodology employed for computing dynamic features from the trajectories of static features is in fact derivative S-G filtering. With this perspective, we note that the filter coefficients can be pre-computed, and that the whole problem of delta feature computation becomes efficient. Indeed, we observe an advantage by a factor of 104 on making use of S-G filtering over actual LS polynomial fitting and evaluation. Thereafter, we study the properties of first-and second-order derivative S-G filters of certain orders and lengths experimentally. The derivative filters are bandpass due to the combined effects of LPR and derivative computation, which are lowpass and highpass operations, respectively. The first-and second-order S-G derivative filters are also observed to exhibit an approximately constant-Q property. We perform a TIMIT phoneme recognition experiment comparing the recognition accuracies obtained using S-G filters and the conventional approach followed in HTK, where Furui’s regression formula is made use of. The recognition accuracies for both cases are almost identical, with S-G filters of certain bandwidths and orders registering a marginal improvement. The accuracies are also observed to improve with longer filter lengths, for a particular order. In terms of computation latency, we note that S-G filtering achieves delta and delta-delta feature computation in parallel by linear filtering, whereas they need to be obtained sequentially in case of the standard regression formulas used in the literature. Finally, we turn to the problem of speech enhancement where we are interested in de-noising using perceptually-motivated loss functions such as Itakura-Saito (IS). We propose to perform enhancement in the discrete cosine transform domain using risk-minimization. The cost functions considered are non-quadratic, and derivation of the unbiased estimator of the risk corresponding to the IS distortion is achieved using an approximate Taylor-series analysis under high signal-to-noise ratio assumption. The exposition is general since we focus on an additive noise model with the noise density assumed to fall within the exponential class of density functions, which comprises most of the common densities. The denoising function is assumed to be pointwise linear (modified James-Stein (MJS) estimator), and parallels between Wiener filtering and the optimum MJS estimator are discussed.

Motivated by the classic works of Charles M. Stein, we focus on developing risk-estimation frameworks for denoising problems in both one-and two-dimensions. We assume a standard additive noise model, and formulate the denoising problem as one of estimating the underlying clean signal from noisy measurements by minimizing a risk corresponding to a chosen loss function. Our goal is to incorporate perceptually-motivated loss functions wherever applicable, as in the case of speech enhancement, with the squared error loss being considered for the other scenarios. Since the true risks are observed to depend on the unknown parameter of interest, we circumvent the roadblock by deriving finite-sample un-biased estimators of the corresponding risks based on Stein’s lemma. We establish the link with the multivariate parameter estimation problem addressed by Stein and our denoising problem, and derive estimators of the oracle risks. In all cases, optimum values of the parameters characterizing the denoising algorithm are determined by minimizing the Stein’s unbiased risk estimator (SURE). The key contribution of this thesis is the development of a risk-estimation approach for choosing the two critical parameters affecting the quality of nonparametric regression, namely, the order and bandwidth/smoothing parameters. This is a classic problem in statistics, and certain algorithms relying on derivation of suitable finite-sample risk estimators for minimization have been reported in the literature (note that all these works consider the mean squared error (MSE) objective). We show that a SURE-based formalism is well-suited to the regression parameter selection problem, and that the optimum solution guarantees near-minimum MSE (MMSE) performance. We develop algorithms for both glob-ally and locally choosing the two parameters, the latter referred to as spatially-adaptive regression. We observe that the parameters are so chosen as to tradeoff the squared bias and variance quantities that constitute the MSE. We also indicate the advantages accruing out of incorporating a regularization term in the cost function in addition to the data error term. In the more general case of kernel regression, which uses a weighted least-squares (LS) optimization, we consider the applications of image restoration from very few random measurements, in addition to denoising of uniformly sampled data. We show that local polynomial regression (LPR) becomes a special case of kernel regression, and extend our results for LPR on uniform data to non-uniformly sampled data also. The denoising algorithms are compared with other standard, performant methods available in the literature both in terms of estimation error and computational complexity. A major perspective provided in this thesis is that the problem of optimum parameter choice in nonparametric regression can be viewed as the selection of optimum parameters of a linear, shift-invariant filter. This interpretation is provided by deriving motivation out of the hallmark paper of Savitzky and Golay and Schafer’s recent article in IEEE Signal Processing Magazine. It is worth noting that Savitzky and Golay had shown in their original Analytical Chemistry journal article, that LS fitting of a fixed-order polynomial over a neighborhood of fixed size is equivalent to convolution with an impulse response that is fixed and can be pre-computed. They had provided tables of impulse response coefficients for computing the smoothed function and smoothed derivatives for different orders and neighborhood sizes, the resulting filters being referred to as Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filters. Thus, we provide the new perspective that the regression parameter choice is equivalent to optimizing for the filter impulse response length/3dB bandwidth, which are inversely related. We observe that the MMSE solution is such that the S-G filter chosen is of longer impulse response length (equivalently smaller cutoff frequency) at relatively flat portions of the noisy signal so as to smooth noise, and vice versa at locally fast-varying portions of the signal so as to capture the signal patterns. Also, we provide a generalized S-G filtering viewpoint in the case of kernel regression. Building on the S-G filtering perspective, we turn to the problem of dynamic feature computation in speech recognition. We observe that the methodology employed for computing dynamic features from the trajectories of static features is in fact derivative S-G filtering. With this perspective, we note that the filter coefficients can be pre-computed, and that the whole problem of delta feature computation becomes efficient. Indeed, we observe an advantage by a factor of 104 on making use of S-G filtering over actual LS polynomial fitting and evaluation. Thereafter, we study the properties of first-and second-order derivative S-G filters of certain orders and lengths experimentally. The derivative filters are bandpass due to the combined effects of LPR and derivative computation, which are lowpass and highpass operations, respectively. The first-and second-order S-G derivative filters are also observed to exhibit an approximately constant-Q property. We perform a TIMIT phoneme recognition experiment comparing the recognition accuracies obtained using S-G filters and the conventional approach followed in HTK, where Furui’s regression formula is made use of. The recognition accuracies for both cases are almost identical, with S-G filters of certain bandwidths and orders registering a marginal improvement. The accuracies are also observed to improve with longer filter lengths, for a particular order. In terms of computation latency, we note that S-G filtering achieves delta and delta-delta feature computation in parallel by linear filtering, whereas they need to be obtained sequentially in case of the standard regression formulas used in the literature. Finally, we turn to the problem of speech enhancement where we are interested in de-noising using perceptually-motivated loss functions such as Itakura-Saito (IS). We propose to perform enhancement in the discrete cosine transform domain using risk-minimization. The cost functions considered are non-quadratic, and derivation of the unbiased estimator of the risk corresponding to the IS distortion is achieved using an approximate Taylor-series analysis under high signal-to-noise ratio assumption. The exposition is general since we focus on an additive noise model with the noise density assumed to fall within the exponential class of density functions, which comprises most of the common densities. The denoising function is assumed to be pointwise linear (modified James-Stein (MJS) estimator), and parallels between Wiener filtering and the optimum MJS estimator are discussed.

Neste trabalho é introduzido um novo modelo estatístico para modelar dados limitados no intervalo continuo (0;1). O modelo proposto é construído sob uma transformação de variáveis, onde a variável transformada é resultado da combinação de uma variável com distribuição normal padrão e a função de distribuição acumulada da distribuição valor extremo generalizado. Para o novo modelo são estudadas suas propriedades estruturais. A nova família é estendida para modelos de regressão, onde o modelo é reparametrizado na mediana da variável resposta e este conjuntamente com o parâmetro de dispersão são relacionados com covariáveis através de uma função de ligação. Procedimentos inferênciais são desenvolvidos desde uma perspectiva clássica e bayesiana. A inferência clássica baseia-se na teoria de máxima verossimilhança e a inferência bayesiana no método de Monte Carlo via cadeias de Markov. Além disso estudos de simulação foram realizados para avaliar o desempenho das estimativas clássicas e bayesianas dos parâmetros do modelo. Finalmente um conjunto de dados de câncer colorretal é considerado para mostrar a aplicabilidade do modelo. / In this research a new statistical model is introduced to model data restricted in the continuous interval (0;1). The proposed model is constructed under a transformation of variables, in which the transformed variable is the result of the combination of a variable with standard normal distribution and the cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. For the new model its structural properties are studied. The new family is extended to regression models, in which the model is reparametrized in the median of the response variable and together with the dispersion parameter are related to covariables through a link function. Inferential procedures are developed from a classical and Bayesian perspective. The classical inference is based on the theory of maximum likelihood, and the Bayesian inference is based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, simulation studies were performed to evaluate the performance of the classical and Bayesian estimates of the model parameters. Finally a set of colorectal cancer data is considered to show the applicability of the model

The sexual exploitation of children remains a very serious problem and is rapidly increasing globally through the use of the Internet. This work focuses on the current methods employed by criminals to generate and distribute child pornography, the methods used by law enforcement agencies to deter them, and the drawbacks of currently used methods, as well as the surrounding legal and privacy issues. A proven method to detect the transmission of illicit images at the network layer is presented within this paper. With this research, it is now possible to actively filter illicit pornographic images as they are transmitted over the network layer in real-time. It is shown that a Stochastic Learning Weak Estimator learning algorithm and a Maximum Likelihood Estimator learning algorithm can be applied against Linear Classifiers to identify and filter illicit pornographic images. In this thesis, these two learning algorithms were combined with algorithms such as the Non-negative Vector Similarity Coefficient-based Distance algorithm, Euclidian Distance, and Weighted Euclidian Distance. Based upon this research, a prototype was developed using the abovementioned system, capable of performing classification on both compressed and uncompressed images. Experimental results showed that classification accuracies and the overhead of network-based approaches did have a significant effect on routing devices. All images used in our experiments were legal. No actual child pornography images were ever collected, seen, sought, or used.

Šiame magistro diplominiame darbe, naudojant skirtingas atstumo funkcijas ir kalibravimo lygtis, išvedami Horvico ir Tompsono įvertinio dispersijos įvertinių svoriai. Tokiu būdu, sukonstruojami aštuoni nauji Horvico ir Tompsono įvertinio dispersijos įvertiniai. Naudojant Teiloro ištiesinimo metodą pateikiamos sukonstruotų įvertinių apytikslės dispersijos ir pasiūlyti šių dispersijų įvertiniai. Be to, darbe atliekamas matematinis modeliavimas, kurio eksperimentai atlikti naudojant darbo autorės sukurtas MATLAB programas. Matematinio modeliavimo tikslas - naujus įvertinius palyginti tarpusavyje ir su standartiniu įvertiniu. Tiriama, kaip įvertinių tikslumas priklauso nuo pasirinkto imties plano. / In this master's graduation work, the weights of estimators of Horvitz & Thompson estimator of variance are defined by using some different distance function and calibration equations. In such a way, the new eight estimators of Horvitz & Thompson estimator of variance were constructed. Using the Taylor linearization method the approximate variances of the constructed estimators were derived. The estimators of the variances of these estimators are proposed as well. Also we perform here a mathematical modeling using MATLAB program. The aim of this mathematical modeling is to compare the new estimators with each other and with a standard one. We analyze also how the accuracy of estimators depends of selected sampling design.

In reliability studies, the goal is to gain knowledge about a product's failure times or life expectancy. Precedence tests do not require large sample sizes and are used in reliability studies to compare the life-time distributions from two samples. Precedence tests are useful since they provide reliable results early in a life-test and the surviving units can be used in other tests. Ng and Balakrishnan (2010) proposed a precedence-type test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the cumulative distribution function. A precedence-type test based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator of the cumulative hazard function has been proposed. This test was developed for both Type-II right censoring and progressive Type-II right censoring. Numerical results, including illustrative examples, critical values and a power study have been provided. The results from this test were compared with those from the test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

Maximum likelihood is an ubiquitous method used in the estimation of generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). However, the method entails computational difficulties and relies on the normality assumption for random effects. We propose a second-order least squares (SLS) estimator based on the first two marginal moments of the response variables. The proposed estimator is computationally feasible and requires less distributional assumptions than the maximum likelihood estimator. To overcome the numerical difficulties of minimizing an objective function that involves multiple integrals, a simulation-based SLS estimator is proposed. We show that the SLS estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under fairly general conditions in the framework of GLMM. Missing data is almost inevitable in longitudinal studies. Problems arise if the missing data mechanism is related to the response process. This thesis develops the proposed estimators to deal with response data missing at random by either adapting the inverse probability weight method or applying the multiple imputation approach. In practice, some of the covariates are not directly observed but are measured with error. It is well-known that simply substituting a proxy variable for the unobserved covariate in the model will generally lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. We propose the instrumental variable method for the consistent estimation of GLMM with covariate measurement error. The proposed approach does not need any parametric assumption on the distribution of the unknown covariates. This makes the method less restrictive than other methods that rely on either a parametric distribution of the covariates, or to estimate the distribution using some extra information. In the presence of data outliers, it is a concern that the SLS estimators may be vulnerable due to the second-order moments. We investigated the robustness property of the SLS estimators using their influence functions. We showed that the proposed estimators have a bounded influence function and a redescending property so they are robust to outliers. The finite sample performance and property of the SLS estimators are studied and compared with other popular estimators in the literature through simulation studies and real world data examples.

In reliability studies, the goal is to gain knowledge about a product's failure times or life expectancy. Precedence tests do not require large sample sizes and are used in reliability studies to compare the life-time distributions from two samples. Precedence tests are useful since they provide reliable results early in a life-test and the surviving units can be used in other tests. Ng and Balakrishnan (2010) proposed a precedence-type test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the cumulative distribution function. A precedence-type test based on the Nelson-Aalen estimator of the cumulative hazard function has been proposed. This test was developed for both Type-II right censoring and progressive Type-II right censoring. Numerical results, including illustrative examples, critical values and a power study have been provided. The results from this test were compared with those from the test based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

Maximum likelihood is an ubiquitous method used in the estimation of generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). However, the method entails computational difficulties and relies on the normality assumption for random effects. We propose a second-order least squares (SLS) estimator based on the first two marginal moments of the response variables. The proposed estimator is computationally feasible and requires less distributional assumptions than the maximum likelihood estimator. To overcome the numerical difficulties of minimizing an objective function that involves multiple integrals, a simulation-based SLS estimator is proposed. We show that the SLS estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under fairly general conditions in the framework of GLMM. Missing data is almost inevitable in longitudinal studies. Problems arise if the missing data mechanism is related to the response process. This thesis develops the proposed estimators to deal with response data missing at random by either adapting the inverse probability weight method or applying the multiple imputation approach. In practice, some of the covariates are not directly observed but are measured with error. It is well-known that simply substituting a proxy variable for the unobserved covariate in the model will generally lead to biased and inconsistent estimates. We propose the instrumental variable method for the consistent estimation of GLMM with covariate measurement error. The proposed approach does not need any parametric assumption on the distribution of the unknown covariates. This makes the method less restrictive than other methods that rely on either a parametric distribution of the covariates, or to estimate the distribution using some extra information. In the presence of data outliers, it is a concern that the SLS estimators may be vulnerable due to the second-order moments. We investigated the robustness property of the SLS estimators using their influence functions. We showed that the proposed estimators have a bounded influence function and a redescending property so they are robust to outliers. The finite sample performance and property of the SLS estimators are studied and compared with other popular estimators in the literature through simulation studies and real world data examples.