The identification of reliable predictors of early academic achievement is imperative for the retention and graduation of all nursing students, and particularly underrepresented minority (URM) students. Students with a high sense of academic self-efficacy exhibit greater persistence and interest in their academic performance, a premise that led to this investigation of self-efficacy as a variable affecting early academic success among baccalaureate nursing students. The purpose of this study was to (a) to determine if a significant relationship existed between academic self-efficacy and successful progression for first semester baccalaureate nursing students in general and URM students specifically, (b) determine the predictive ability of academic self-efficacy on progression, and (c) determine if ethnicity moderates the predictive effect of self-efficacy. Self-efficacy theory, which is grounded in social cognitive theory, was the framework for this study. A cross-sectional, descriptive research design was employed utilizing the College Academic Self-Efficacy Survey (CASES). Correlational analysis and logistic regression were conducted to test the hypotheses. Demographic variables were analyzed regarding their relationship to academic self-efficacy. Although statistical analysis did not support any of the proposed hypotheses, a statistically significant relationship was demonstrated between academic self-efficacy and overall GPA, which, for this population, may have implications for retention. Age and transferring from a four-year institution were significant predictors of progression for this population. Although this study was limited by its lack of generalizability and small sample size, further research related to the effects of academic self-efficacy on academic success are warranted