This dissertation develops a new concept for performance-based monitoring (PBM) of instrumented buildings subjected to earthquakes. This concept is achieved by simultaneously combining and advancing existing knowledge from structural mechanics, signal processing, and performance-based earthquake engineering paradigms. The PBM concept consists of 1) optimal sensor placement, 2) dynamic response reconstruction, 3) damage estimation, and 4) loss analysis. Within the proposed concept, the main theoretical contribution is the derivation of a nonlinear model-based observer (NMBO) for state estimation in nonlinear structural systems. The NMBO employs an efficient iterative algorithm to combine a nonlinear model and limited noise-contaminated response measurements to estimate the complete nonlinear dynamic response of the structural system of interest, in the particular case of this research, a building subject to an earthquake. The main advantage of the proposed observer over existing nonlinear recursive state estimators is that it is specifically designed to be physically realizable as a nonlinear structural model. This results in many desirable properties, such as improved stability and efficiency. Additionally, a practical methodology is presented to implement the proposed PBM concept in the case of instrumented steel, wood-frame, and reinforced concrete buildings as the three main types of structural systems used for construction in the United States. The proposed methodology is validated using three case studies of experimental and real-world large-scale instrumented buildings. The first case study is an extensively instrumented six-story wood frame building tested in a series of full-scale seismic tests in the final phase of the NEESWood project at the E-Defense facility in Japan. The second case study is a 6-story steel moment resisting frame building located in Burbank, CA, and uses the recorded acceleration data from the 1991 Sierra Madre and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. The third case is a seven-story reinforced concrete structure in Van Nuys, CA, which was severely damaged during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. The results presented in this dissertation constitute the most accurate and the highest resolution seismic response and damage measure estimates obtained for instrumented buildings. The proposed PBM concept will help structural engineers make more informed and swift decisions regarding post-earthquake assessment of critical instrumented building structures, thus improving earthquake resiliency of seismic-prone communities.

Existing methods of evaluating the structural system of a building after a seismic event consist of removing architectural elements such as drywall, cladding, insulation, and fireproofing. This method is destructive and costly in terms of downtime and repairs. This research focuses on removing the guesswork by using forced vibration testing (FVT) to experimentally determine the health of a building. The experimental structure is a one-story, steel, bridge-like structure with removable braces. An engaged brace represents a nominal and undamaged condition; a dis-engaged brace represents a brace that has ruptured thus changing the stiffness of the building. By testing a variety of brace configurations, a set of experimental data is collected that represents potential damage to the building after an earthquake. Additionally, several unknown parameters of the building’s substructure, lateral-force-resisting-system, and roof diaphragm are determined through FVT. A suite of computer models with different levels of damage are then developed. A quantitative analysis procedure compares experimental results to the computer models. Models that show high levels of correlation to experimental brace configurations identify the extent of damage in the experimental structure. No testing or instrumentation of the building is necessary before an earthquake to identify if, and where, damage has occurred.

Erdbeben gehören zu den zerstörerischsten Naturgefahren auf diesem Planeten. Obwohl Erdbeben seit Jahrtausenden dokumentiert sing, bleiben viele Fragen zu Erdbeben unbeantwortet. Eine Frage ist die Vorhersagbarkeit von Brüchen: Inwieweit ist es möglich, die endgültige Größe eines Bebens zu bestimmen, bevor der zugrundeliegende Bruchprozess endet? Diese Frage ist zentral für Frühwarnsysteme. Die bisherigen Forschungsergebnisse zur Vorhersagbarkeit von Brüchen sind widersprüchlich. Die Menge an verfügbaren Daten für Erdbebenforschung wächst exponentiell und hat den Tera- bis Petabyte-Bereich erreicht. Während viele klassische Methoden, basierend auf manuellen Datenauswertungen, hier ihre Grenzen erreichen, ermöglichen diese Datenmengen den Einsatz hochparametrischer Modelle und datengetriebener Analysen. Insbesondere ermöglichen sie den Einsatz von maschinellem Lernen und deep learning. Diese Doktorarbeit befasst sich mit der Entwicklung von Methoden des maschinellen Lernens zur Untersuchung zur Erbebenanalyse. Wir untersuchen zuerst die Kalibrierung einer hochpräzisen Magnitudenskala in einem post hoc Scenario. Nachfolgend befassen wir uns mit Echtzeitanalyse von Erdbeben mittels deep learning. Wir präsentieren TEAM, eine Methode zur Frühwarnung. Auf TEAM aufbauend entwickeln wir TEAM-LM zur Echtzeitschätzung von Lokation und Magnitude eines Erdbebens. Im letzten Schritt untersuchen wir die Vorhersagbarkeit von Brüchen mittels TEAM-LM anhand eines Datensatzes von teleseismischen P-Wellen-Ankünften. Dieser Analyse stellen wir eine Untersuchung von Quellfunktionen großer Erdbeben gegenüber. Unsere Untersuchung zeigt, dass die Brüche großer Beben erst vorhersagbar sind, nachdem die Hälfte des Bebens vergangen ist. Selbst dann können weitere Subbrüche nicht vorhergesagt werden. Nichtsdestotrotz zeigen die hier entwickelten Methoden, dass deep learning die Echtzeitanalyse von Erdbeben wesentlich verbessert. / Earthquakes are among the largest and most destructive natural hazards known to humankind. While records of earthquakes date back millennia, many questions about their nature remain open. One question is termed rupture predictability: to what extent is it possible to foresee the final size of an earthquake while it is still ongoing? This question is integral to earthquake early warning systems. Still, research on this question so far has reached contradictory conclusions. The amount of data available for earthquake research has grown exponentially during the last decades reaching now tera- to petabyte scale. This wealth of data, while making manual inspection infeasible, allows for data-driven analysis and complex models with high numbers of parameters, including machine and deep learning techniques. In seismology, deep learning already led to considerable improvements upon previous methods for many analysis tasks, but the application is still in its infancy. In this thesis, we develop machine learning methods for the study of rupture predictability and earthquake early warning. We first study the calibration of a high-confidence magnitude scale in a post hoc scenario. Subsequently, we focus on real-time estimation models based on deep learning and build the TEAM model for early warning. Based on TEAM, we develop TEAM-LM, a model for real-time location and magnitude estimation. In the last step, we use TEAM-LM to study rupture predictability. We complement this analysis with results obtained from a deep learning model based on moment rate functions. Our analysis shows that earthquake ruptures are not predictable early on, but only after their peak moment release, after approximately half of their duration. Even then, potential further asperities can not be foreseen. While this thesis finds no rupture predictability, the methods developed within this work demonstrate how deep learning methods make a high-quality real-time assessment of earthquakes practically feasible.