My thesis is focused on analysis of economic potential of the Republic of Indonesia with special regard to East Java province and the possibilities of the use of this potential by Czech companies to broaden the Czech-Indonesian trade relations.

Following the success of the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, Microfinance institutions (MFIs) which apply group-lending method through the medium of small credit have been regarded as a new and effective tools for poverty alleviation for the poor in many Less Developed Countries. This study analyses the role of two MFIs, namely KUKESRA, a government administered programme and Mitra Karya East Java (MKEJ) which is a privately managed institution in poverty alleviation in Indonesia. It examines to what extent these institutions have been successful in helping the poor, and improving the living standards of the recipients. Two alternative approaches, namely the institutionalist and the welfarist approaches, are used to examine the question of whether the poor benefited from the two programmes, followed by a comparison of the performances between the two. Using data obtained from a sample survey of 393 respondents in the District of Malang in East Java, from December 1998 - June 1999, it was found that the differences in management, organisational structure, programme design, and the system of coordination all resulted in differences in performance of the two MFI institutions studied. It was found that both programmes increased the incomes of the recipients, but the impact of KUKESRA was much lower than that of MKEJ. However, KUKESRA had a greater positive effect on employment than MKEJ. Neither of the programmes resulted in a significant improvement in the consumption of basic needs of the recipients. Of the two approaches used in the evaluation of the programmes, a good performance in terms of outreach and sustainability under the institutional approach did not imply that the poor really benefited from the programme. It was found that the welfarist approach is much more appropriate in evaluating the effectiveness of MFIs in Indonesia.

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Our paleotsunami surveys of the southern Java coast led to the discovery of five imbricate coastal boulder fields near Pacitan, Indonesia that may date to the mid-to-late 19th century or prior and two similar fields at Pantai Papuma and Pantai Pasir Putih that were tsunami-emplaced during the 1994 7.9 Mw event in East Java. Estimated ages for the fields near Pacitan are based on historical records and radiocarbon analyses of coral boulders. The largest imbricated boulders in fields near Pacitan and in East Java are similar in size (approximately 3 m^3) and are primarily composed of platy beachrock dislodged from the intertidal platform during one or several unusually powerful wave impactions. Hydrodynamic wave height reconstructions of the accumulations near Pacitan indicate the boulders were likely tsunami rather than storm-wave emplaced, as the size of the storm waves needed to do so is not viable. We evaluate the boulders as an inverse problem, using their reconstructed wave heights and ComMIT tsunami modeling to suggest a minimum 8.4 Mw earthquake necessary to dislodge and emplace the largest boulders near Pacitan assuming they were all deposited during the same tsunami event and that the rupture source was located along the Java Trench south of Pacitan. A combined analysis of historical records of Java earthquakes and plate motion measurements indicates a seismic gap with >25 m of slip deficit along the Java Trench. A 1000-1500 km rupture along the subduction interface of this segment is capable of producing a 9.0-9.3 Mw megathrust earthquake and a giant tsunami. However, evidence for past megathrust earthquake events along the this trench remains elusive. We use epicenter independent tsunami modelling to estimate wave heights and inundation along East Java in the event that the trench were to fully rupture. By translocating ComMIT slip parameters of Japan's 2011 9.1 Mw event along the trench offshore East Java, we demonstrate possible wave heights in excess of 20 m at various locations along its southern coasts. Approximately 300,000-500,000 people in low-lying coastal communities on the southern coasts of East Java could be directly affected. We recommend at-risk communities practice the "20/20/20 principle" of tsunami hazard awareness and evacuation.

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