Cette thèse s’intéresse au défi que représente le rattrapage des niveaux de prix pour la stabilité macroéconomique des pays en transition d’Europe centrale et orientale, dans la perspective de leur future participation à la zone euro. A cet égard, une modélisation du taux de change réel d’équilibre suggère que l’appréciation réelle liée au rattrapage économique recouvre des évolutions de prix relatifs différentes suivant les régimes de change, dont témoignent des trajectoires d’endettement extérieur contrastées. Dans les économies en changes flexibles, la hausse du taux de change nominal favorise une appréciation endogène des termes de l’échange à moyen terme, en orientant les investissements directs étrangers et la réalisation des gains de productivité vers le secteur exposé de l’économie, ce qui se traduit par une appréciation du taux de change réel d’équilibre et une amélioration des comptes extérieurs. Dans les économies en changes fixes, les effets de valorisation liés à la hausse des prix relatifs domestiques tendent à orienter les investissements vers le secteur abrité de l’économie, entraînant une érosion de la compétitivité extérieure, dont témoigne le gonflement de la dette externe. Par ailleurs, l’intégration monétaire comporte des risques spécifiques pour la stabilité macroéconomique des économies en rattrapage, dans la mesure où elle s’accompagne d’un processus marqué de convergence des conditions de financement entre Etats membres, dès lors que la perspective de l’adhésion à l’espace monétaire commun devient crédible. Un modèle dynamique à anticipations rationnelles permet de montrer que face au choc de demande lié à une telle convergence financière, l’appréciation du taux de change nominal se révèle cruciale pour limiter la surchauffe de l’économie. A l’inverse, dans les économies en régime de change fixe, l’abaissement des primes de risque pays est susceptible de provoquer une montée de l’endettement extérieur, suivi d’enchaînements déflationnistes une fois dans l’union monétaire. / This research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along economic catching-up in these countries can be ascribed to different relative price developments, depending on the exchange rate regime, as exemplified by contrasted external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the increase in the nominal exchange rate fosters an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium run, by channelling foreign direct investment and associated productivity gains to the exposed sector of the economy, thus appreciating the equilibrium real exchange rate and strengthening the current account over time. In fixed exchange rate economies, positive valuation effects associated with the increase in domestic relative prices tend to divert investment to the sheltered sector, thus undermining external competitiveness and bringing about higher external debt. Furthermore, monetary integration entails specific risks for macroeconomic stability in catching-up economies, because it implies a process of rapid convergence in the financing conditions across member States, which takes place as soon as the perspective of accession to the common monetary area appears credible. A dynamic, rational expectations model shows that the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate becomes crucial to curtail the economic overheating triggered by the demand shock associated with financial convergence. By contrast, diminishing country risk premia under fixed exchange rate regimes are likely to cause ‘boom bust’ cycles, with an increase in external indebtedness followed by deflationary developments once in the monetary union.

From the United Kingdom's Brexit on June 23, 2016, to the formal Brexit on January 30, 2020, there has been a large amount of academic literature discussing the possible effects of Brexit. Among them, the literature on the impact of Brexit on tax policy reforms and capital markets in EU countries is too numerous to enumerate. However, the current research literature lacks a discussion of Central and Eastern European countries, and there is even less research on the link between capital markets and tax policy reforms. This article assumes that the impact of Brexit on the capital markets of CEE countries will cause the government to turn to tax increases to increase fiscal revenue. Three hypotheses are proposed under this assumption. In addition, the empirical research in this article uses the combination of the Poisson model and the Heckman selection model to conduct regression research on the overall taxation of CEE countries, changes in direct and indirect taxation tax policies and bond interest rates, government changes, and political parties left or right. It is concluded that Brexit has no significant impact on the capital markets of CEE countries, and has not caused enough shocks that the government will turn to the government to increase revenue by issuing more tax increases. And Brexit...

This dissertation uses Critical Discourse Analysis to examine China's strategic use of desecuritised language in its 16/17+1 foreign policy targeting the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Through the lens of securitisation theory and strategic narratives, the analysis suggests that China's foreign policy narrative targeting the CEE countries is strategic in nature and is a representation of China's ambition to form a new global order. As such, the desecuritisation strategies are used instrumentally to alleviate 'China threat' perception, increase the attractiveness of China in the region, and to further achieve its economic and geopolitical goals. Among political elites in the Visegrád 4 countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia, the level of reception of China's strategic narratives varies. The pro-China attitude at the governmental level is mainly motivated by economic incentives promised in the Chinese narrative as well as the governments' own political agendas. In a parallel process, converse anti-China sentiments and re-securitisation of China in the countries are largely connected to the primacy of the trans-Atlantic relationship with the US as well as the importance attached to European values. Keywords Chinese foreign policy, Central and Eastern European Countries,...