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Unifying the epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary dynamics of DengueLourenço, José January 2013 (has links)
In under 6 decades dengue has emerged from South East Asia to become the most widespread arbovirus affecting human populations. Recent dramatic increases in epidemic dengue fever have mainly been attributed to factors such as vector expansion and ongoing ecological, climate and socio-demographic changes. The failure to control the virus in endemic regions and prevent global spread of its mosquito vectors and genetic variants, underlines the urgency to reassess previous research methods, hypotheses and empirical observations. This thesis comprises a set of studies that integrate currently neglected and emerging epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary factors into unified mathematical frameworks, in order to better understand the contemporary population biology of the dengue virus. The observed epidemiological dynamics of dengue are believed to be driven by selective forces emerging from within-host cross-immune reactions during sequential, heterologous infections. However, this hypothesis is mainly supported by modelling approaches that presume all hosts to contribute equally and significantly to the selective effects of cross-immunity both in time and space. In the research presented in this thesis it is shown that the previously proposed effects of cross-immunological reactions are weakened in agent-based modelling approaches, which relax the common deterministic and homogeneous mixing assumptions in host-host and host-pathogen interactions. Crucially, it is shown that within these more detailed models, previously reported universal signatures of dengue's epidemiology and population genetics can be reproduced by demographic and natural stochastic processes alone. While this contrasts with the proposed role of cross-immunity, it presents demographic stochasticity as a parsimonious mechanism that integrates, for the first time, multi-scale features of dengue's population biology. The implications of this research are applicable to many other pathogens, involving challenging new ways of determining the underlying causes of the complex phylodynamics of antigenically diverse pathogens.
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Niche segregation by cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) as a mechanism for co-existence with lion (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta)Broekhuis, Femke January 2012 (has links)
Intraguild competition and predation have been recognised as important ecological factors influencing the population dynamics of carnivores. The effects of these interactions are often asymmetrical due to a size-related dominancy hierarchy. However, it has been suggested that competitively subordinate carnivores can minimise the costs of predation and competition through spatial and temporal avoidance. Here I investigate the ecological and behavioural mechanisms by which cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) coexist with competitively stronger lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta). Fieldwork was carried out in the Okavango Delta, northern Botswana, between October 2008 and August 2011. A total of 20 Global Positioning System (GPS) radio-collars were fitted on all known cheetahs (n=6), lion prides (n=5) and spotted hyaena clans (n=6) in the study area (approx. 3 000 km<sup>2</sup>). Pre-programmed radio-collars recorded locations and activity continuously for each individual and these data were complemented with direct behavioural observations. Cheetah data were analysed with respect to the temporal and spatial likelihood of encountering lions and spotted hyaenas. Results suggest that the response to the risks posed by other predators is species-specific, habitat-specific and dependent on the immediacy of the risk. Resource partitioning was not the main mechanism for coexistence as cheetahs overlapped extensively with lions and spotted hyaenas in time, space and habitat use. Instead, cheetahs adjusted their spatial distribution in response to immediate risks or adapted their habitat use depending on their vulnerability (e.g. behaviours such as feeding or with differing levels of moonlight at night). In general, cheetah temporal and spatial distribution is a hierarchal process, firstly driven by resource acquisition and thereafter fine-tuned by predator avoidance. In addition, habitat heterogeneity seemed to be key in facilitating coexistence. Understanding the behavioural mechanisms that interacting apex predators adopt to regulate these negative interactions could be crucial to carnivore conservation, especially as human-related habitat loss is forcing species into ever smaller areas.
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Avian malaria associations with British mosquitoesAlves, R. O. N. January 2012 (has links)
Avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.) is a popular model system to study the ecology and evolution of parasite-host-vector interactions in the wild. These studies have historically focused mostly on the avian hosts and the malaria parasites. Knowledge regarding the role of vectors is essential to our understanding of these wild systems, but has only very recently started to accumulate. This thesis aimed to contribute to this field by assessing mosquito-malaria-host associations for British mosquitoes and the role of mosquito ecology in shaping these parasite systems in a British woodland study site, using molecular, field ecology and statistical modelling methodologies. From the 12 mosquito species or species groups found, I showed that the Cx.pipiens/torrentium mosquito group is likely to have a major role in avian malaria transmission in Great Britain, while Cs. annulata may be transmitting P. circumflexum. I also demonstrated a positive spatial association between mosquito density per host and avian malaria prevalence, in accordance with theoretical expectations for malaria transmission. Findings here provide evidence that avian malaria transmission in British woodlands is limited mainly to June-August, being preceded by relapse of previous infections or, alternatively, by maintenance of chronic blood parasitaemia through the colder months; this agrees with theoretical expectations and findings elsewhere for temperate climates. This thesis also described local-scale spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variation in adult mosquito abundance within a British woodland where avian malaria is endemic, with differing patterns found between species or species groups. Spatially, variation in adult mosquito abundance was associated with microclimatic and landscape variables such as distances to mosquito breeding sites, microclimate and canopy height; seasonally, variation in mosquito abundance was associated with temperature and rainfall, alongside calendar date. The heterogeneity in mosquito parameters and associations with environmental variables found at a site where avian malaria is endemic highlights the need to anticipate such complexity when trying to understand Plasmodium transmission. By doing so, we further extend the potential of these parasite systems to improve our knowledge regarding the ecology and evolution of parasite-host-vector associations.
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Modelling the impact of an alien invasion : Harmonia axyridis in BritainComont, Richard Francis January 2014 (has links)
Harmonia axyridis is a ladybird native to Asia, but introduced widely as a biocontrol agent. It is invasive and detrimental to native species in North America, which meant its arrival in Britain was met with concern. Establishment was seen as an opportunity to track the spread of an invasive alien species (IAS) whilst also monitoring impacts on native species. The aims of this thesis were to examine the responses of native British ladybirds to the arrival of H. axyridis, to establish the effect of the IAS on native ladybirds when compared to other drivers, and to investigate the possible facilitation of the H. axyridis invasion by natural enemy release. Modelling ladybird distributions with life-history and resource-use traits found that species predatory on a wide range of prey families had larger range sizes than those which ate fewer prey types. This suggests that the wide diet breadth of the IAS is likely to have played a critical role in the species’ rapid spread. Dietary niche overlap between H. axyridis and native ladybirds showed positive correlation with declines of native ladybirds. This indicates that the IAS is playing an important role, but the significance of urbanisation suggests habitat destruction is also significant. Abundance of H. axyridis was influenced by habitat type and aphid abundance, but not by the native ladybird community, suggesting the spread of the IAS will not be slowed by biotic resistance. Harmonia axyridis is attacked by native parasitoids, but at a much lower rate than is the native Coccinella septempunctata, in line with natural-enemy release theory. There was no evidence of attack rate increasing with time since arrival in an area. Overall, H. axyridis is an extremely successful IAS, with detrimental effects on native ladybirds which are likely to continue.
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Complex photonic structures in nature : from order to disorderOnelli, Olimpia Domitilla January 2018 (has links)
Structural colours arise from the interaction of visible light with nano-structured materials. The occurrence of such structures in nature has been known for over a century, but it is only in the last few decades that the study of natural photonic structures has fully matured due to the advances in imagining techniques and computational modelling. Even though a plethora of different colour-producing architectures in a variety of species has been investigated, a few significant questions are still open: how do these structures develop in living organisms? Does disorder play a functional role in biological photonics? If so, is it possible to say that the optical response of natural disordered photonics has been optimised under evolutionary pressure? And, finally, can we exploit the well-adapted photonic design principles that we observe in Nature to fabricate functional materials with optimised scattering response? In my thesis I try to answer the questions above: I microscopically investigate $\textit{in vivo}$ the growth of a cuticular multilayer, one of the most common colour-producing strategies in nature, in the green beetles $\textit{Gastrophysa viridula}$ showing how the interplay between different materials varies during the various life stages of the beetles; I further investigate two types of disordered photonic structures and their biological role, the random array of spherical air inclusions in the eggshells of the honeyguide $\textit{Prodotiscus regulus}$, a species under unique evolutionary pressure to produce blue eggs, and the anisotropic chitinous network of fibres in the white beetle $\textit{Cyphochilus}$, the whitest low-refractive index material; finally, inspired by these natural designs, I fabricate and study light transport in biocompatible highly-scattering materials.
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Mathematical evolutionary epidemiology : limited epitopes, evolution of strain structures and age-specificityCherif, Alhaji January 2015 (has links)
We investigate the biological constraints determined by the complex relationships between ecological and immunological processes of host-pathogen interactions, with emphasis on influenza viruses in human, which are responsible for a number of pandemics in the last 150 years. We begin by discussing prolegomenous reviews of historical perspectives on the use of theoretical modelling as a complementary tool in public health and epidemiology, current biological background motivating the objective of the thesis, and derivations of mathematical models of multi-locus-allele systems for infectious diseases with co-circulating serotypes. We provide detailed analysis of the multi-locus-allele model and its age-specific extension. In particular, we establish the necessary conditions for the local asymptotic stability of the steady states and the existence of oscillatory behaviours. For the age-structured model, results on the existence of a mild solution and stability conditions are presented. Numerical studies of various strain spaces show that the dynamic features are preserved. Specifically, we demonstrate that discrete antigenic forms of pathogens can exhibit three distinct dynamic features, where antigenic variants (i) fully self-organize and co-exist with no strain structure (NSS), (ii) sort themselves into discrete strain structure (DSS) with non-overlapping or minimally overlapping clusters under the principle of competitive exclusion, or (iii) exhibit cyclical strain structure (CSS) where dominant antigenic types are cyclically replaced with sharp epidemics dominated by (1) a single strain dominance with irregular emergence and re-emergence of certain pathogenic forms, (2) ordered alternating appearance of a single antigenic type in periodic or quasi-periodic form similar to periodic travelling waves, (3) erratic appearance and disappearance of synchrony between discrete antigenic types, and (4) phase-synchronization with uncorrelated amplitudes. These analyses allow us to gain insight into the age-specific immunological profile in order to untangle the effects of strain structures as captured by the clustering behaviours, and to provide public health implications. The age-structured model can be used to investigate the effect of age-specific targeting for public health purposes.
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The evolution of social behaviour : the effect of mating system and social structure in the European badger Meles melesDugdale, Hannah L. January 2007 (has links)
Studies of mating systems and social organisation have been central to understanding of the evolution of social behaviour. The European badger Meles meles is a good species in which to study these processes, as its complex social system provides an opportunity to investigate how both natural and kin selection shape the evolution of mating systems and social structure. In this thesis, I use behavioural and genetic data to describe the mating system and social organisation of a high-density badger population and examine the occurrence of cooperative breeding. I genotyped 915 (85%) badgers trapped in Wytham Woods (1987–2005), 630 of which were cubs, and assigned both parents to 331 cubs with 95% confidence. This revealed a polygynandrous mating system, with up to five mothers and five fathers per social group. Mounting behaviour was also polygynandrous and I show the strongest evidence to date for multiple-paternity litters. I demonstrate, for the first time, that groups consisted of close and distant kin: approximately one third of group members were first-order kin, and overall group members had slightly lower relatedness levels than half-siblings. Within groups, adult and yearling females had higher pairwise relatedness than males, and neighbouring groups contained relatives. These findings result from the high level (42%) of extra-group paternities, 86% of which were assigned to neighbouring males. For the first time I show that females avoided inbreeding by mating with extra-group males; however, incestuous matings did occur. Promiscuous and repeated mountings were observed, which may reduce male–male aggression and infanticide, but may also promote sperm competition, genetic diversity, and / or genetic compatibility. Just under a third of adult males and females were assigned parentage each year and I quantify, for the first time, reproductive skew within badger groups. Correlations between relatedness, group productivity, and reproductive skew were not consistent with the predictions of incomplete-control models; rather, resource availability may play a role. Older and younger badgers displayed reduced annual breeding success, with male success increasing initially with experience. The Restraint, Constraint, and Selection Hypotheses did not explain the age-related breeding pattern in females. Variance in lifetime breeding success (LBS) was greater for males. Males that only bred within or only outside of their groups had half the LBS of males that did both. Females that were assigned maternity probably bred cooperatively and allonursed non-offspring, which has not been demonstrated previously. No benefit was established, however, in terms of litter size, probability of offspring breeding, or offspring lifetime breeding success, with more mothers in a group. In conclusion, badger social groups are fostered through kinship ties. Polygynandry and repeated mounting may have evolved originally to reduce male–male aggression and infanticide by males, through paternity masking. Although plural breeding occurs, group living appears to be costly. Motivation to disperse may be reduced through high-levels of extra-group paternities, which may also reduce inbreeding. Cooperative breeding among mothers may represent a low-cost behaviour with indirect benefits due to high levels of relatedness between female group-members. Badger sociality therefore represents an early stage in the evolution of social behaviour.
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