Office space oversupply cost Australia billions of dollars during the 1990-92 recession. Australia, the United States, Japan, the U.K., South Africa, China, Thailand, and many other countries have suffered office oversupply cycles. Illiquid untenanted office buildings impair investors capital and cash flows, with adverse effects on macroeconomics, financial institutions, and individuals. This study aims to develop improved methods for medium term forecasting of office market adjustments to inform individual project development decisions and thereby to mitigate office oversupply cycles. Methods combine qualitative research, econometric estimation, system dynamics simulation, and institutional economics. This research operationalises a problem solving research paradigm concept advocated by Ken Lusht. The research is also indebted to the late James Graaskamp, who was successful in linking industry and academic research through time and space specific feasibility studies to inform individual property development decisions. Qualitative research and literature provided a list of contributing causes of office oversupply including random shocks, faulty forecasting methods, fee driven deals, prisoners dilemma game, system dynamics (lags and adjustment times), land use regulation, and capital market issues. Rather than choosing among these, they are all considered to be causal to varying degrees. Moreover, there is synergy between combinations of these market imperfections. Office markets are complex evolving human designed systems (not time invariant) so each cycle has unique historical features. Data on Australian office markets were used to estimate office rent adjustment equations. Simulation models in spreadsheet and system dynamics software then integrate additional information with the statistical results to produce demand, supply, and rent forecasts. Results include ++ / models for rent forecasting and models for analysis related to policy and system redesign. The dissertation ends with two chapters on institutional reforms whereby better information might find application to improve market efficiency.Keywords. Office rents, rent adjustment, office market modelling, forecasting, system dynamics.

The first essay empirically evaluates recently developed techniques that have been proposed to improve the estimation of affine term structure models. The evaluation presented here is performed on two dimensions. On the first dimension, I find that invariant transformations and rotations can be used to reduce the number of free parameters needed to estimate the model and subsequently, improve the empirical performance of affine term structure models. The second dimension of this evaluation surrounds the comparison between estimating an affine term structure model using the model-free method and the inversion method. Using daily LIBOR rate and swap rate quotes from June 1996 to July 2008 to extract a panel of 3,034 time-series observations and 14 cross sections, this paper shows that, a term structure model that is estimated using the model-free method does not perform significantly better in fitting yields, at any horizon, than the more traditional methods available in the literature.The second essay attempts explores implications of using principal components analysis in the estimation of affine term structure models. Early work employing principal component analysis focused on portfolio formation and trading strategies. Recent work, however, has moved the usage of principal components analysis into more formal applications such as the direct involvement of principal component based factors within an affine term structure model. It is this usage of principal components analysis in formal model settings that warrants a study of potential econometric implications of its application to term structure modeling. Serial correlation in interest rate data, for example, has been documented by several authors. The majority of the literature has focused on strong persistence in state variables as giving rise to this phenomena. In this paper, I take yields as given, and hence document the effects of whitening on the model-implied state-dependent factors, subsequently estimated by the principal component based model-free method. These results imply that the process of pre-whitening the data does play a critical role in model estimation. Results are robust to Monte Carlo Simulations. Empirical results are obtained from using daily LIBOR rate and swap rate quotes from June 1996 to July 2008 to extract a panel of zero-coupon yields consisting of 3,034 time-series observations and 14 cross sections.The third essay examines the extent to which the prevalence of estimation risk in numerical integration creates bias, inefficiencies, and inaccurate results in the widely used class of affine term structure models. In its most general form, this class of models relies on the solution to a system of non-linear Ricatti equations to back out the state-factor coefficients. Only in certain cases does this class of models admit explicit, and thus analytically tractable, solutions for the state factor coefficients. Generally, and for more economically plausible scenarios, explicit closed form solutions do not exist and the application of Runge-Kutta methods must be employed to obtain numerical estimates of the coefficients for the state variables. Using a panel of 3,034 yields and 14 cross-sections, this paper examines what perils, if any, exist in this trade off of analytical tractability against economic flexibility. Robustness checks via Monte Carlo Simulations are provided. In specific, while the usage of analytical methods needs less computational time, numerical methods can be used to estimate a broader set of economic scenarios. Regardless of the data generating process, the generalized Gaussian process seems to dominate the Vasicek model in terms of bias and efficiency. However, when the data are generated from a Vasicek model, the Vasicek model performs better than the generalized Gaussian process for fitting the yield curve. These results impart new and important information about the trade off that exists between using analytical methods and numerical methods for estimate affine term structure models.

Emerging insurance markets, have limited access to financial instruments that they can use to create common hedge(s) to manage foreign exchange risk. This is the first empirical study to focus on the limitations when modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. This work is based on the cash flow methodology proposed by Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005) in reference to banks, and employed by Li et al. (2009) when assessing US insurance companies. Some econometric methodological innovations have been introduced to study the limitations of modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. An extensive literature review is followed by a quantitative investigation, to answer the following research questions. 1) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a fundamental (economic) method of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant, for all Egyptian insurance companies? 2) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a technical (statistical) way of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant for all Egyptian insurance companies? 3) Is the exchange transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, significant? Although the foreign exchange rate transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, is insignificant (question3), the percentage of Egyptian insurers affected by foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in US dollars, estimated at the individual firm level, was found to be 22% (question 1) and 35% (question2) respectively.

Emerging insurance markets, have limited access to financial instruments that they can use to create common hedge(s) to manage foreign exchange risk. This is the first empirical study to focus on the limitations when modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. This work is based on the cash flow methodology proposed by Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005) in reference to banks, and employed by Li et al. (2009) when assessing US insurance companies. Some econometric methodological innovations have been introduced to study the limitations of modelling foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in emerging insurance markets. An extensive literature review is followed by a quantitative investigation, to answer the following research questions. 1) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a fundamental (economic) method of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant, for all Egyptian insurance companies? 2) Is the foreign exchange transaction exposure, as measured by a technical (statistical) way of modelling the interplay of foreign exchange rates with other economic variables, significant for all Egyptian insurance companies? 3) Is the exchange transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, significant? Although the foreign exchange rate transaction exposure for the Egyptian insurance industry, as a whole, is insignificant (question3), the percentage of Egyptian insurers affected by foreign exchange rate transaction exposure in US dollars, estimated at the individual firm level, was found to be 22% (question 1) and 35% (question2) respectively.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017. / The extent to which the liquidity has an impact on stock return continues to be an eagerly researched topic. The effect on liquidity on the return of stocks has been a greatly debated subject on the capital market theory. The thesis looks at the impact of liquidity on the stock indices return of eight frontier markets. The paper uses two methods to estimate the regression namely, unbalanced dynamic panel Generalised Method of Moments and Fixed Effect Model. An analysis on factors affecting liquidity was done and turnover ratio, Amivest ratio and Amihud ratio were used as a measure for liquidity. The correlation between stock return and the liquidity measure was mixed; with turnover ratio having a negative correlation. Amivest ratio has positive relationship consistent with the risk premium and was found to be significant. However, the correlation on the Amihud ratio was not consistent with the liquidity premium as it was found to be positive. Although negatively correlated to return, the turnover ratio was found to be insignificant. / MT 2017

[No abstract supplied]

Cette thèse propose trois essais économétriques ayant trait au capital humain et au bien-être de l'enfant. Chacun des essais présente une méthodologie distincte afin de répondre à l'objectif concerné. Dans le premier chapitre, nous évaluons les effets à long terme d'une politique de services de garde universels au Canada sur le bien-être de l'enfant (santé, comportement, développement moteur et social). Nous montrons que la réforme a un effet négatif sur le bien-être des enfants d'âge préscolaire, mais ces effets tendent à disparaître lorsque l'enfant devient plus âgé. Nous trouvons que cette tendance persiste même dix ans après la mise en place de la réforme. Le second chapitre s'intéresse à l'effet de l'intensité des services de garde sur le développement cognitif des enfants d'âge préscolaire. Nous utilisons la méthode d'appariement à traitements multiples pour répondre à cet objectif. Nous montrons que les effets des services de garde sont grandement hétérogènes. Leurs effets varient selon le statut socioéconomique des familles, la scolarité ou non de l'enfant, le niveau d'intensité des services de garde ainsi que le mode de garde utilisé. Le troisième chapitre porte sur la modélisation des trajectoires des performances mathématiques des enfants canadiens de 7 à 15 ans ainsi que sur l'identification des facteurs de risque durant la petite enfance susceptibles d'influencer l'appartenance à ces trajectoires. La méthode utilisée est celle du Group-Based Trajectory Modeling de Nagin (2005). / This thesis contains three econometric essays on child human capital and well-being. Each essay has a distinct methodology to meet the purpose. In the first chapter, we evaluate the long-term effects of a reform of universal child care in Canada on children's health, motor and social development, and behaviour. We show that the policy had negative effects on preschool children's well-being, but these effects tend to disappear as the child gets older. We find that this pattern persist even ten years after the implementation of the reform. The second chapter focuses on the effect of the intensity of child care on preschool children's cognitive development using propensity score matching with multivalued treatments. We show that the effects of child care are significantly heterogeneous and vary by family socioeconomic status, schooling or not of the child, the intensity of child care and the type of child care arrangement. The third chapter models mathematics trajectories of Canadian children aged 7 to 15 years and identifies risk factors during early childhood on the membership of these trajectories using Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (Nagin, 2005).

Submitted by paulo junior (paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2010-02-23T17:25:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tesis final.pdf: 1191238 bytes, checksum: 3186b2f935ae9d1f258118790d33d379 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by paulo junior(paulo.jr@fgv.br) on 2010-02-23T17:26:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 tesis final.pdf: 1191238 bytes, checksum: 3186b2f935ae9d1f258118790d33d379 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-02-24T13:44:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tesis final.pdf: 1191238 bytes, checksum: 3186b2f935ae9d1f258118790d33d379 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-05-18 / Na presente dissertação tem como objetivo avaliar o impacto do programa JUNTOS sobre a taxa de freqüência escolar e sobre o trabalho infantil nas crianças de 6 a 14 anos. Estas duas variáveis foram selecionadas para o seu estudo, pois ao nosso entender estas são as principais variáveis que são influenciadas pelo programa JUNTOS e que tem uma influencia direta sobre o capital humano das crianças e assim sobre a diminuição da pobreza futura. As principais hipóteses derivadas das teorias de capital humano e de transferências de rendas condicionadas foram corroboradas pela nossa avaliação: (1) o programa JUNTOS tem um efeito positivo sobre o incremento da freqüência escolar, (2) o programa JUNTOS é efetivo na redução do trabalho infantil, (3) quando o chefe de família é de sexo feminino, a renda familiar é utilizada em bens e serviços em favor das crianças, e (4) o efeito do programa JUNTOS é maior nas crianças com piores características socioeconômicas (ex: menor renda familiar per capita, chefe de família com poucos anos de estudo, idioma do chefe de família, etc.) Outra conclusão importante da dissertação foi que o programa JUNTOS provoca uma realocação na oferta de trabalho intra familiar.