Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand February 2017 / For developed economies, it has been shown that the slope of the yield curve is a good indicator of the future path of real output and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive abilities of the yield curve slope for domestic growth and inflation in emerging market economies. Given the sovereign risk premia in these economies, it also assesses whether adding the sovereign risk spread to the yield curve spread improves the predictive content of the yield curve. It finds that the yield curve can predict real output at both the short and long forecasting horizons in emerging economies, the extent of which differs across countries. It also finds that the predictive performance for inflation is weaker than that of output growth, especially in the shorter forecasting horizons, and that the sovereign risk spread has additional predictive content for growth and inflation. This suggests that market participants and monetary policy makers in these economies should supplement their forecasting models with information contained in the yield curve to forecast domestic growth and inflation. / MT2017

Essay I: Governance surrounding dividend initiation. According to the free cash flow hypothesis, managers prefer to invest surplus cash, even in value reducing projects, rather than release it to shareholders. Yet, previous studies of dividend payout conclude that managers pay more in dividends when they are entrenched, supporting the substitute model... The results indicate that initiating firms have stronger shareholder rights, in contrast with much of the prior research on continuous divident payout. Firms with lower entrenchment index are more likely to initiate dividends... Essay II: Earnings management surrounding dividend initiation. Prior research tests earnings management surrounding changes in dividend payout and researchers conclude that the earnings management is a means of amplifying the dividend signal to the market. However, dividend initiation is a unique event. If initiation represents signaling, similar to a dividend increase, then management will manage earnings upward. If, on the other hand, divident initiation is better explained by the free cash flow hypothesis, then initiation may be entered into with caution or reluctance by management. / by Deborah Drummond Smith. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2012. / Includes bibliography. / Mode of access: World Wide Web. / System requirements: Adobe Reader.

Existing literature reports a puzzle about the forward foreign exchange rate premium over the spot foreign exchange rate. The premium is often negatively correlated with subsequent changes in the spot rate, which is considered to defy economic intuition and possibly violate market efficiency. Rational explanations include non-stationary risk premia and econometric misspecifications, and the puzzle as a guide to profitable trading. Actually, the puzzle consists of three aspects of anomalies: volatility, persistence, and unbiasedness. The puzzle has not yet solved fully thus far. / In the latter part of the thesis, we try to explore the behavioral aspects of the investors in the foreign currency markets (spot and forward markets). We discuss asset prices in an economy where investors derive direct utility from their consumption and adjust their utility based on the concept of habit formation and "catching up with Joneses", therefore explaining thus far the formidable unbiasedness anomaly to a certain extent. Simulation results exhibit properties similar to what has been observed in historical data. / This thesis suggests firstly that there may be no real puzzle. A simple model fits the data. Starting from examining the relations between the excess return of speculation in foreign currency forward markets and the change rates of the return rate on equity (stock) portfolio and the change rate of futures price on stock index as well as foreign currencies where the stock markets and futures market are active, publicly traded, and highly transparent markets, the source of the risk premia in the future change in spot rate has been analyzed in detail. We believe that the panel data analysis is in place for the puzzle based on its nature. In this thesis we find that the future change in spot foreign exchange rate correlate with both forward premium and especially the change rate in stock index or the change rate of futures settlement price on the stock index or on the currencies, which implies that the investors compare and employ the profitable opportunities across financial markets not just act in only one market such as just foreign exchange forward market, thus maximizing the utility or efficiency of their funds. In addition, the change rate of futures price has rather impacts on the excess return of speculation in forward currency markets, thus establishing the relation between OTC markets and publicly traded markets of foreign exchange. / Tan Yue. / "January 2007." / Adviser: Jia He. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-09, Section: A, page: 4006. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references. / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstract in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.

by Chan Siu-tack and Suen Wai-sang. / Bibliography: leaves 132-134 / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1986

by Hou Ka Chun. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 89-95). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.viii / CHAPTER / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.6 / Monetary Models / Nominal Exchange Rate Prediction / Nonparametric Estimation Techniques / Chapter III --- METHODOLOGY --- p.17 / Unit-Root Tests / Zivot-Andrews Test / Error Correction Model / Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration / Local Polynomial Fitting / Chapter IV --- DATA --- p.36 / Chapter V --- PARAMETRIC MODELING --- p.39 / Estimation Procedure / Empirical Findings / Japan / Germany / Britain / Chapter VI --- NONPARAMETRIC MODELING --- p.50 / Estimation Procedure / Empirical Findings / Chapter VII --- CONCLUSION --- p.54 / TABLES --- p.56 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.77 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.89

Wong Kwan-to. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 50-52). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ACKNOWLEDGMENT --- p.iii / CHAPTER / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- THE MODEL --- p.3 / Chapter THREE --- ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATORS --- p.6 / Chapter FOUR --- EIGHT SPECIAL CASES --- p.12 / Chapter FIVE --- MONTE CARLO EXPERIMENTS --- p.36 / Chapter SIX --- CONCLUSION --- p.40 / APPENDIX --- p.41 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.50

Tam Chi Sang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 73-76). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Review of Literature --- p.p.4 / Chapter 1.2 --- Relationships to the existing works --- p.p.11 / Chapter 2 --- Demand Functions --- p.p.20 / Chapter 3 --- Exogenous Timing Duopoly --- p.p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- Description of the game --- p.p.24 / Chapter 3.2 --- Equilibrium Analysis --- p.p.27 / Chapter 4 --- Endogenous Timing Duopoly --- p.p.38 / Chapter 4.1 --- Description of the game --- p.p.38 / Chapter 4.2 --- Equilibrium Analysis --- p.p.41 / Chapter 5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.p.52 / Chapter 6 --- Appendix --- p.p.56 / Chapter 6.1 --- Reaction functions in the Exogenous Timing Model --- p.p.56 / Chapter 6.2 --- Reaction functions in the Endogenous Timing Model --- p.p.62 / Chapter 6.3 --- Proofs for Inequalities (10)，(13)，and Proposition 1 --- p.p.66 / Chapter 6.4 --- "Proofs for Inequalities (22), (23), (26), (27), and Proposition 2" --- p.p.67 / Chapter 6.4.1 --- Proofs for Inequalities (22) and (23) with γ >0 --- p.p.67 / Chapter 6.4.2 --- Proofs for Inequalities (26) and (27) with γ <0 --- p.p.70 / Chapter 6.4.3 --- Proof for Proposition 2 --- p.p.72 / References --- p.p.73

by Wai-Man Leung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-112). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Problems of Cointegration Analysis --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions of this Research --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Applications of this Research --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of this Thesis --- p.3 / Chapter 2 --- Foreign Exchange Features --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Spot Exchange Rate Markets --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Development of International Monetary System --- p.6 / Chapter 2.3 --- Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rates --- p.7 / Chapter 2.4 --- Description of Foreign Exchange Data --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- Literature Overview --- p.17 / Chapter 3.1 --- Model Selection --- p.17 / Chapter 3.2 --- Line and Curve Detection......................................................' --- p.20 / Chapter 3.3 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.23 / Chapter 4 --- Regression by Minor Component Analysis --- p.24 / Chapter 4.1 --- Regression by Ordinary Least Squares --- p.24 / Chapter 4.2 --- Regression by Total Least Squares --- p.27 / Chapter 4.3 --- The comparison of PCA and MCA --- p.28 / Chapter 4.4 --- Experiment 4A : Regression on Artifical Data --- p.29 / Chapter 4.5 --- Experiment 4B : Regression on FX Data --- p.30 / Chapter 4.6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.32 / Chapter 5 --- Cointegration Test by Minor Component Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- Concept of Cointegration --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- MCA Based Cointegration Test --- p.34 / Chapter 5.3 --- Experiment 5B : Cointegration Test on FX Data --- p.36 / Chapter 5.4 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.38 / Chapter 6 --- Model Selection by Minor Component Analysis --- p.44 / Chapter 6.1 --- Hypothesis Test on Minor Component Coefficients --- p.44 / Chapter 6.2 --- Experiment 6B : Forward Selection on FX Data --- p.46 / Chapter 6.3 --- Experiment 6B : Backward Elimination on FX Data --- p.50 / Chapter 6.4 --- Experiment 6C : MCA Based Selection on FX Data --- p.53 / Chapter 6.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.54 / Chapter 7 --- Cointegration by Modular MCA --- p.55 / Chapter 7.1 --- Ordinary Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.56 / Chapter 7.2 --- Experiment 8A : OMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.58 / Chapter 7.3 --- Experiment 8B : OMMCA on FX Data --- p.63 / Chapter 7.4 --- Variable-Dependent Modular MCA Method --- p.71 / Chapter 7.5 --- "Experiment 8C : VMMCA on Artificial Data," --- p.73 / Chapter 7.6 --- Experiment 8D : VMMCA on FX Data --- p.80 / Chapter 7.7 --- Adaptive Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.89 / Chapter 7.8 --- Experiment 8E : AMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.90 / Chapter 7.9 --- Experiment 8F : AMMCA on FX Data --- p.94 / Chapter 7.10 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.103 / Chapter 8 --- Conclusions and Future Works --- p.105

This dissertation consists of three essays that sit at the intersection of international trade, political economy and the economics of innovation. It analyzes from a critical perspective the relationship between organized interest groups and international agreements on trade and intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and offers new theoretical insights, which it then supports empirically. My first essay calls into question the logic of the standard Grossman-Helpman/Bagwell-Staiger model of trade agreements, according to which governments enter international treaties to prevent terms-of-trade manipulation and special interest politics has a trivial role. Despite its immense popularity, it remains inconsistent with observed trade policy and with the practitioners' understanding of trade treaties. By assuming that subsidies have additional political cost beyond their monetary cost, I show how international agreements result in the reduction of political protectionism through the crucial role of exporting lobbies in the negotiations process. At the same time, the model resolves three prominent puzzles in the literature: the terms-of-trade puzzle, the anti-trade bias puzzle and the inefficient redistribution puzzle. Finally I find empirical support for the model and my key assumption using data on US agricultural trade policy. In the second essay I propose a model that considers the effect of firm lobbying for IPR protection in an international setting in innovation-driven economies. In particular, I compare the IPR protection level and global social welfare between the case when countries set their IPR policies non-cooperatively and when they enter an international treaty, such as the TRIPS, TPP and TTIP. I find that lobbying necessarily leads to inefficient international agreements resulting in too much IPR protection and may even be welfare-reducing relative to no cooperation. I also show that international lobbying and high concentration of capital can further exacerbate this outcome. The model generates predictions consistent with patterns I find in the data on US firms' lobbying expenditures and the value of their international patent portfolios. Finally, the third essay provides a critique of a popular structural patent valuation methodology that utilizes the stock market response to news about patent grants, first introduced by Kogan et al. (2012). Using their methodology (refined and improved in terms of the theoretical derivation), I perform a placebo estimation of US patent values and compare the results with the true patent value estimates as per Kogan et al's paper. I find strong evidence that the "true" patent value estimates are not driven by patent news announcements, but rather are an artifact of the estimation methodology itself and as such cannot be used for comparisons across different patent-holding firms and grant years. I further corroborate the external validity of this critique by applying the same method to a novel database of Chinese patents and finding that the same conclusion holds.

My dissertation focuses upon low inflation. Many developed countries, especially Japan and the Eurozone, have recently experienced prolonged periods of below-target inflation. This has been blamed for many economic ills including worsening the Great Recession and generating a slow recovery, making monetary policy ineffective and leading to lower labor market flexibility. I study what has caused low inflation, its potential effects and how it could be prevented. In Chapter 1, I look at how effective raising the inflation target would be in mitigating the problems of low inflation. Many economists have proposed raising the inflation target to reduce the probability of hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB). It is both widely assumed and a feature of standard models that raising the inflation target does not impact the equilibrium real rate. I demonstrate that once heterogeneity is introduced, raising the inflation target causes the equilibrium real rate to fall in the New Keynesian model. This implies that raising the inflation target will increase the nominal interest rate by less than expected and thus will be less effective in reducing the probability of hitting the ZLB. The channel is that a rise in the inflation target lowers the average markup by price rigidities and a fall in the average markup lowers the equilibrium real rate by household heterogeneity which could come from overlapping generations or idiosyncratic labor shocks. Raising the inflation target from 2% to 4% lowers the equilibrium real rate by 0.38 percentage points in my baseline calibration. I also analyse the optimal inflation level and provide empirical evidence in support of the model mechanism. In Chapter 2, I study to what degree the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability which has been blamed for a rise in inequality. A theoretical relationship between inflation and profitability is known to exist. I investigate the degree to which the recent fall in inflation can explain the rise in firm profitability. My three primary findings are: 1. The negative relationship between inflation and profitability does not hinge upon the Calvo assumption. Raising inflation significantly lowers profitability under all common price rigidities. The relationship can actually be significantly stronger under menu costs. 2. A rise in the degree to which firms discount the future magnifies the effect; a rise in elasticity of substitution can increase or decrease the effect depending upon the price rigidity. 3. The profit share has risen by around 3.5p.p. since the 1990s. In a richer model with firm heterogeneity, the recent fall in inflation is estimated to explain 14% of the rise. This can increase to 29% if firms are allowed to discount the future by more in line with estimates from the finance literature. I also provide empirical evidence for the negative relationship between inflation and firm profits. In Chapter 3, I examine whether behavioral features can help to explain why some countries have persistently experienced low inflation at the zero lower bound. Economists are keen to introduce behavioral assumptions into modern macroeconomic models. A popular framework for doing so is sparse dynamic programming, which assumes that agents partly base their expectations upon a default model which is typically the steady state. This means agents' expectations will be wrong if there are long-run deviations from the default model and assumes agents can compute the default. I introduce an alternative form of sparse dynamic programming which tackles these problems by allowing for long-run updating to the behavioral part of agents' expectations. I apply this to derive a long-run behavioral New Keynesian model. Within this model, fixed interest rates yield indeterminacy and the costs of remaining at the zero lower bound are unbounded. These results are very different to a behavioral New Keynesian model based upon standard sparse dynamic programming, which can yield determinacy under fixed interest rates and bounded costs of the zero lower bound.