by Ao, Sio Iong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2003. / Includes bibliographical references. / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Overview --- p.2 / Chapter 1.2 --- Topics of this Study --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Econometric Analysis --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Computational Intelligence --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4.1 --- Overview --- p.4 / Chapter 1.4.2 --- Successful Cases of Applying CI in Time Series Analysis --- p.4 / Chapter 2 --- Background --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- Market Descriptions --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Overview of the Markets --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- VAR method --- p.10 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Introduction --- p.11 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Implementation of VAR by RATS --- p.12 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Impulse Response Functions --- p.12 / Chapter 2.3 --- Neural Network --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Introduction --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Supervised vs Unsupervised learning --- p.15 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Back-Propagation network --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4 --- Evolutionary Computation --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Motivation of Employing Evolutionary Computation --- p.19 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Brief Description --- p.21 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Genetic Algorithm --- p.21 / Chapter 3 --- Analysis of their Interdependence and SD --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Interdependence of the Asian Indices --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Forecasting Index Price with the Help of Neural Network --- p.26 / Chapter 3.3 --- Interdependence of the Standard Deviations of the Stock Indices --- p.28 / Chapter 3.4 --- Using the Neural Network to Make Forecasting of the Stan- dard Deviations --- p.29 / Chapter 3.5 --- Summary --- p.33 / Chapter 4 --- Forecasting Opening Prices --- p.34 / Chapter 4.1 --- Step 1: Identificating of the Interdependence of the Opening Price on Different Stock Indices by VAR --- p.36 / Chapter 4.2 --- Step 2: Using the Neural Network to Make Forecasting of the Opening Prices --- p.38 / Chapter 4.3 --- Summary --- p.39 / Chapter 5 --- Incorporating Correlated Markets --- p.41 / Chapter 5.1 --- Overview of the Markets from the Prespectives of VAR --- p.43 / Chapter 5.2 --- Investigation of the Correlations by VAR Method --- p.43 / Chapter 5.3 --- Prediction of the Market by Neural Network --- p.46 / Chapter 5.4 --- Hypothesis: the Correlations of the Markets Are Time-Dependent --- p.46 / Chapter 5.5 --- Testing this Hypothesis with Predictions by Neural Network . --- p.48 / Chapter 5.6 --- Summary --- p.51 / Chapter 5.7 --- F-tests Results on Different Periods of HK Markets --- p.51 / Chapter 6 --- Hybrid VAR-NN-EC System --- p.53 / Chapter 6.1 --- Introduction --- p.53 / Chapter 6.1.1 --- Overview of the Econometric Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship of Stock Markets --- p.54 / Chapter 6.1.2 --- Previous Results of Employing the Stand-alone Neural Network --- p.55 / Chapter 6.2 --- Working Mechanism of the Hybrid VAR-NN-EC --- p.56 / Chapter 6.3 --- Comparing Results from the VAR-NN-EC System --- p.58 / Chapter 6.4 --- Summary --- p.60 / Chapter 7 --- Hybrid System for Dual-Listing Indices --- p.61 / Chapter 7.1 --- Introduction --- p.61 / Chapter 7.2 --- HSI vs HSLRI --- p.62 / Chapter 7.2.1 --- HSI's Selection Criteria --- p.62 / Chapter 7.2.2 --- Hang Seng London Reference Index --- p.63 / Chapter 7.2.3 --- Motivation for the Study --- p.63 / Chapter 7.3 --- Data Descriptions --- p.64 / Chapter 7.4 --- Overviews of this Analysis System --- p.64 / Chapter 7.5 --- Results from the Simplified AR-NN System --- p.65 / Chapter 7.5.1 --- Regression Results --- p.66 / Chapter 7.5.2 --- NN Results --- p.67 / Chapter 7.6 --- Summary --- p.68 / Chapter 8 --- Using EC for Selecting Stock Experts --- p.70 / Chapter 8.1 --- Example of Evolutionary Computation --- p.71 / Chapter 8.2 --- Comparison of Results from the VAR-NN-EC System --- p.72 / Chapter 8.3 --- Summary --- p.73 / Chapter 9 --- Conclusion --- p.74 / Bibliography --- p.i

Choi Tsz Wang. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 43-45). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Review of Structural Models --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- The Merton model --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- The default barrier model of Black and Cox --- p.7 / Chapter 3 --- Estimating the Merton model --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1 --- The Variance Restriction (VR) method --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- The Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) method --- p.12 / Chapter 3.3 --- Comparison between VR and ML methods --- p.13 / Chapter 4 --- Implications of Using the Proxy in Default Barrier Estimation --- p.15 / Chapter 4.1 --- Rejection of SC framework --- p.16 / Chapter 4.2 --- Positive barrier implication --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- Barier over debt implication --- p.17 / Chapter 4.4 --- Numerical illustration --- p.19 / Chapter 5 --- The Proposed Framework --- p.22 / Chapter 5.1 --- Maximum likelihood estimation --- p.23 / Chapter 5.2 --- Barrier-to-debt ratio specification --- p.25 / Chapter 5.3 --- Simulation checks --- p.26 / Chapter 5.4 --- Comments on the performance of α --- p.29 / Chapter 6 --- Estimation with Empirical Data --- p.33 / Chapter 6.1 --- Description of data --- p.33 / Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical results --- p.35 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.41 / References --- p.43

香港自1983年10月實施聯繫匯率制度開始，財政政策便成為香港政府唯一穩定經濟的措施。為了善用有限的財政儲備，本文嘗試建立一個計量模型，以作評估財政政策對香港經濟的影響。Jha et al. (2010)曾指出香港政府增加財政支出會對經濟有顯著的負面影響，而利用Ravn et al. (2007)的結構向量自回歸（SVAR）模型亦得出相類似的結果。以上的研究結果與一般學者對財政政策的觀點有所出入，而其中一個可能性是它們所使用的計量模型中遺漏了控制變數。當加入摩根士丹利亞太區指數－MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index作為對外貿易環境的控制變數後，擴張性財政政策的預測結果則與之前的研究相同。在更換經修改後模型中的投資變數後，模型則預測增加財政支出並不會對投資產生擠擁效應。而經分解後的財政支出分析更顯示政策支出類型是影響財政政策效應乘數的關鍵因素。模型亦估算政府增加經常性開支會對經濟有着顯著的正面作用。若香港政府需於在短期內推行擴張性財政政策，本文建議政府應集中資源於基礎建設上，以達至財政政策效用最大化的經濟效果。 / Given the adoption of the linked exchange rate since October 1983, fiscal policy becomes the only measurement for stabilizing the Hong Kong economy. This paper attempts to establish a framework for evaluating the fiscal effect to prevent the abuse of fiscal measures. The empirical study of Jha et al. (2010) revealed the significant negative impact of fiscal effect in Hong Kong, which violates the classical view of fiscal policy. A similar result has been found by adopting another structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). An omission of control variables in the quantitative model is possible. The MSCI AC (All countries) Pacific Index has been introduced as an international block in the SVAR model proposed by Ravn et al. (2007). The fiscal effect becomes positive and standardizes with the previous fiscal studies. The replacement of investment variable in the modified model suggests that positive fiscal innovation does not encounter with the crowding out effect on investment. The estimations for the decomposition policy expenditures indicate that compositional effect exists, and it undermines the fiscal multiplier. The estimations also reveal that the innovation in recurrent expenditure contributes mainly to the fiscal effect. With the persistence and significant impact on output, concentrating on infrastructure expenditure is the recommendation on Hong Kong fiscal policy to maximize the expansionary effect in the short run. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Chi Shing. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-33). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Literature Review on Hong Kong Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Literature Review on the SVAR Model of Fiscal Policy --- p.5 / Chapter 3 --- Identification of the Structural VAR Model / Chapter 3.1 --- Original Model / Chapter 3.1.1 --- Identification --- p.8 / Chapter 3.1.2 --- Data --- p.10 / Chapter 3.1.3 --- Estimation --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Modified Model / Chapter 3.2.1 --- Introduction of International Block --- p.11 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Estimation --- p.13 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Robustness Testing --- p.16 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Crowding Out Effect --- p.17 / Chapter 4 --- Fiscal Effects by Policy Category / Chapter 4.1 --- Decomposition of Government Expenditure --- p.19 / Chapter 4.2 --- Estimation of Fiscal Impulse by Policy Category / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Total Expenditure by Policy --- p.21 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Non-Recurrent Expenditure by Policy --- p.25 / Chapter 5 --- Comparison of the Fiscal Effects between “Asian Dragons“ --- p.26 / Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.29 / References --- p.32 / Appendixes / Chapter Appendix A: --- Classification of Expenditure by Policy Area Group --- p.34 / Chapter Appendix B: --- Estimations and Figures --- p.35

by Ng Yiu Hong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80). / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- HONG KONG'S IMPORT PERFORMANCE --- p.5 / Chapter THREE --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.9 / The Elasticity Approach / Market Structure and Product Characteristics / Long-Run Profit Maximization / Hysteresis Models / Multinational Corporations and Intra-Firm Trade / Non-Tariff Barriers / Other Explanations / Chapter FOUR --- THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.19 / Chapter FIVE --- DATA AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS --- p.22 / Data / Econometric Analysis / Chapter SIX --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.33 / Chapter SEVEN --- CONCLUSION --- p.40 / TABLES --- p.43 / APPENDIX --- p.64 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.77

Lam Suet-man. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-117). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ACKNOWOLEDGMENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vi / CHAPTER / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.6 / Parametric Models / Nonparametric Estimation Techniques / Chapter THREE --- METHODOLOGY --- p.21 / Parametric Models / Nonparametric Models / Chapter FOUR --- DATA DESCRIPTION --- p.33 / Chapter FIVE --- EMPIRICAL FINDINGS --- p.39 / Estimation Results / Evaluation of Model Performance / Out-of-sample Forecast Evaluation / Chapter SIX --- CONCLUSION --- p.58 / TABLES --- p.62 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.97 / APPENDIX --- p.107 / BIBOGRAPHY --- p.111

How important are the distributional effects of international trade? This has been one of the most central questions pursued by international economists, particularly because much of the public opposition towards increased openness is due to the belief that welfare changes are unevenly distributed. In this dissertation, I rely on counterfactual analysis and natural experiments to study topics of international trade, welfare and inequality in the context of both developing and developed economies. In particular, I combine theoretical modeling and empirical analysis to examine the effects of international trade on (1) real wages of individuals within and across countries; (2) within-sector wage dispersion caused by heterogeneous responses of firms with different productivity levels to cheaper imported inputs. In each of the three chapters, I contribute to the existing literature by relaxing simplifying assumptions that have proved to be inconsistent with data and exploring new mechanisms that link international trade to inequality. Chapter 1, “Trade and Real Wages with Demand and Productivity Heterogeneity,” presents a general equilibrium model that incorporates the effects of trade liberalization on both an individual’s nominal wage and consumer price index. A vast majority of the literature focuses on the income channel, which is its effect on the distribution of nominal wages across workers. A small number of studies consider the expenditure channel, which is its differential impact on consumer price indices. It is well known that the consumption baskets of high-income and low-income consumers look very different. To our knowledge, there are only three case studies that have looked at these two channels jointly for individual countries, Argentina, Mexico and India. We provide a unified framework incorporating both channels by allowing for non-homothetic preferences and worker heterogeneity across jobs. In spite of its many dimensions of heterogeneity at the individual level, the model remains tractable enough that allows us to estimate its key parameters and perform counterfactuals. Chapter 2, “Trade and Real Wage Inequality: Cross-Country Evidence,” addresses the following question: what is the impact of trade liberalization on the distribution of real wages in a large cross-section of countries? Trade liberalization affects real-wage inequality through two channels: the distribution of nominal wages across workers and, if the rich and the poor consume different bundles of goods, the distribution of price indices across consumers. Prior work has focused mostly on one or the other of these channels, but no paper has studied both jointly for a large set of countries. Based on the theoretical framework in Chapter 1, I measure the distributional effects of trade liberalization incorporating both channels for a sample of 40 countries. More specifically, I parametrize the model using sector-level trade and production data. Because skill-intensive goods are also high-income elastic in the data, I find an intuitive, previously unexplored, and strong interaction between the two channels. According to my counterfactual analysis, trade cost reductions generate dramatically different results for both nominal wage inequality and price index inequality than what previous research has obtained by focusing on either channel alone. I find that trade cost reductions decrease the relative nominal wage of the poor and the relative price index for the poor in all countries. On net, real-wage inequality falls everywhere. Chapter 3, “Imported Inputs and Within-Sector Wage Dispersion,” proposes a new mechanism through which trade liberalization affects income inequality within a country: the use of imported inputs. Intuitively, a firm with higher initial productivity is better at using higher quality foreign inputs. This justifies paying the fixed costs for a larger set of imported inputs when input tariff liberalization decreases their relative price. The firm becomes more import intensive, which enhances its productivity advantage. As a result, the firm hires higher quality workers, produces higher quality products and pays higher wages to its workers, increasing within-sector wage dispersion. We find that both the mean and the dispersion of the distribution of firm productivity, markup and size went up during a period when China reduced its tariffs on imported inputs. More importantly, these results still hold when we consider the subset of firms that survived throughout the sample period, from 1998 to 2007. In addition, we develop a partial-equilibrium, heterogeneous-firm model with endogenous imported inputs and labor quality choice that is consistent with these observations. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that supports the model’s prediction that the differential change in the import intensity of firms with different productivity levels explains these patterns.

Fung, Mang Yan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 48-55). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.4 / Chinese Abstract --- p.5 / Introduction --- p.6 / Study 1 --- p.16 / Method --- p.16 / Results --- p.21 / Discussion --- p.26 / Study 2 --- p.26 / Method --- p.28 / Results --- p.33 / Discussion --- p.41 / General Discussion --- p.42 / References --- p.48 / Appendix A --- p.56 / Appendix B --- p.58 / Appendix C --- p.63 / Appendix D --- p.65

Wong, Tak Yuen. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 29-30). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.6 / Chapter 3 --- The Roommate Problem --- p.8 / Chapter 4 --- The Existence of Stable Matchings --- p.11 / Chapter 5 --- Random Paths to Stability --- p.22 / Chapter 6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.28

Abstract not available

"January 2002" Includes bibliographical references: (p. 31-34). The primary purpose of this study is to develop a framework for identifying the primary drivers of the costs of being customer responsive. The authors' aim is to develop an understanding of the causal drivers of the costs of responsiveness as these costs are considered to be an important input to strategic and tactical decisions. In developing this framework, the paper links the characteristics of responsive manufacturing from the operations management literature with the insights from studies in the accounting literature relating to the drivers of cost. The paper attempts to model the cost impact when a firm responds to ad hoc demands involving the product customization, variation in product mix, or changes to delivery schedules. The costs emerge as a function of the type of responsiveness and the resource capacity management strategy implemented by the firm. The magnitude and dynamics of market demands and firm response, as well as the inherent flexibility of the firm's resources are seen as influencing the magnitude of the costs of responsiveness. disper