Ng, Shou Zhong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-77). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.vii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.viii / Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- MOTIVATIONS / Chapter 1.2 --- OBJECTIVES / Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.12 / Chapter 3 --- DATA DESCRIPTION --- p.22 / Chapter 4 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.25 / Chapter 4.1 --- Cross-Section Dispersion of Per Capita Real Income / Chapter 4.2 --- Stochastic Convergence of the 17 OECD Countries / Chapter 4.3 --- Time-Varying Parameters Model on Convergence / Chapter 4.4 --- Unobserved Components Structural Time Series Models on Converging Economy / Chapter 5 --- ESTIMATION RESULTS --- p.40 / Chapter 5.1 --- Cross-Section Dispersion of Per Capita Real Income / Chapter 5.2 --- Stochastic Convergence of the 17 OECD Countries / Chapter 5.3 --- Time-Varying Parameters Model on Convergence / Chapter 5.4 --- Unobserved Components Structural Time Series Models on Converging Economy / Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.64 / APPENDICES --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.71 / ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.78 / TABLES --- p.87

This is an in-depth study of the structural change and transition of the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991 using disequilibrium econometric methodology. The model for the Chinese consumer goods market is based on the Portes-Winter disequilibrium model for centrally planned economies (1980). The demand function is derived from the Houthakker-Taylor savings function. The supply function is composed of approximations to the government's long-term and short-term plans. The transaction quantity in the market is defined as the smaller of effective demand and supply. Using the traditional global fitting method, three models are evaluated: one model that assumes no structural change, and two models that assume structural change. The estimations show that the structures of the demand and supply functions of the Chinese consumer goods market have changed since the economic reform in 1980. An innovative non-parametric method of locally weighted optimization is applied to further test the variations in model parameters during the period between 1954 and 1991 without assuming explicit functional forms of demand and supply. The estimation results show that the Chinese consumer goods market fits the Portes-Winter model well in the earlier years. The results confirm that the structures of demand and supply functions have changed since the economic reform. In the late 1980's, the Chinese consumer goods market is shown to have shifted away from a pure centrally planned system. Other main conclusions of this study include, first, that chronic shortage does not exist in the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991. Second, a rigid price level has not caused the market to be persistently in disequilibrium. Third, the classical disequilibrium model of consumer goods market in centrally planned economies does not fit the Chinese consumer goods market in the later years.

Abstract not available

Abstract not available

Abstract not available

This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.

This dissertation contains a series of essays that provide empirical evidence for Australia on some fundamental predictions of real business cycle models and on the convergence and persistence of real interest rates. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the issues examined in each chapter and provides an overview of the methodologies that are used. Tests of various basic predictions of standard real business cycle models for Australia are presented in Chapters 2, 3 and 4. Chapter 2 considers the question of great ratios for Australia. These are ratios of macroeconomic variables that are predicted by standard models to be stationary in the steady state. Using time series econometric techniques (unit root tests and cointegration tests) Australia great ratios are examined. In Chapter 3 a more restrictive implication of real business cycle models than the existence of great ratios is considered. Following the methodology proposed by Canova, Finn and Pagan (1994) the equilibrium decision rules for some standard real business cycle are tested on Australian data. The final essay on this topic is presented in Chapter 4. In this chapter a large-country, small-country is used to try and understand the reason for the sharp rise in Australia??s share of world output that began around 1990. Chapter 5 discusses real interest rate linkages in the Pacific Basin region. Vector autoregressive models and bootstrap methods are adopted to study financial linkages between East Asian markets, Japan and US. Given the apparent non-stationarity of real interest rates a related issue is examined in Chapter 6, viz. the persistence of international real interest rates and estimation of their half-life. Half-life is selected as a means of measuring persistence of real rates. Bootstrap methods are employed to overcome small sample issues in the estimation and a non-standard statistical inference methodology (Highest Density Regions) is adopted. Chapter 7 reapplies the High Density Regions methodology and bootstrap half-life estimation to the data used in Chapters 2 and 5. This provides a robustness check on the results of standard unit root tests that were applied to the data in those chapters. Main findings of the thesis are as follows. The long run implications of real business cycle models are largely rejected by the Australia data. This finding holds for both the existence of great ratios and when the explicit decision rules are employed. When the small open economy features of the Australian economy are incorporated in a two country RBC model, a country-specific productivity boom seems to provide a possible explanation for the rise in Australia??s share of world output. The essays that examine real interest rates suggest the following results. Following the East Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 there appears to have been a decline in the importance of Japan in influencing developments in the Pacific Basin region. In addition there is evidence that following the crisis Korea??s financial market became less insular and more integrated with the US. Finally results obtained from the half-life estimators suggest that despite the usual findings from unit root tests, real interest rates may in fact exhibit mean-reversion.

Potential policy decisions regarding fly fishing in the Yellowstone National Park Area could severely impact the enjoyment possibilities of many of its users. In order to determine the magnitude of the impact, this paper applies a form of the basic travel cost model developed by Bell and Leeworthy [JEEM. 18,189-205 (1990)] to fishing sites in the Yellowstone National Park Area. Bell and Leeworthy have argued that consumer demand for the time spent at a recreation site is inversely related to on-site cost per day, and may be positively related to travel cost per trip. The paper discusses relevant literature on the method, presents background information on the site, and generates a demand curve for users of the resource. A consumer surplus measurement is then derived from the resulting demand data, which gives an estimate for the value of the resource; the consumer surplus is determined to be roughly $751.88 per day spent at the site. The assumptions of the model are then discussed, and an assessment is made of the potential policy implications. / Graduation date: 1998

This thesis consists of two essays on applied microeconomics issues. The first essay presents a hedonic price econometric model of vacant commercial land. The second essay presents cost frontier analysis on the industry and firm's performance of the U.S. Motor Carrier industry. Our hedonic price econometric model includes two new developments in estimating land values in a multicentric urban area First, two composite indexes of market accessibility and highway accessibility are developed to account for the impacts of different characteristics of different regional nodes on land value at a particular site. Second, we use nonlinear least squares to estimate the decay parameters of the accessibility indexes within the model. We found that market accessibility is the dominant land value determinant. The estimated market accessibility decay parameter is different in value from the ones that are commonly assumed in hedonic models. The effect of access to highway interchanges is insignificant. Corner lots are of higher value. Finally, under Seattle's zoning policy, zoning classification of neighborhood commercial and community commercial land does not have significant effect on land value. The second essay uses the stochastic cost frontiers to analyze the performance of the U.S. motor carrier industry in the pre- and post-MCA periods. The average industry inefficiencies were between 14 and 27 percent during studied period. Our results indicate that the deregulation has no impact on industry efficiency. After a short adjustment period, the average industry inefficiency in the post-MCA years falls back to its pre-MCA level of around 14 to 16 percent. We analyzed the firm-specific inefficiencies by tobit regression. Our result shows that union firms are 1.5 and 4 percent less efficient than non-union firms in the pre- and post-MCA years, respectively. Firms located in the southern region are relatively efficient and the ones in the northern regions are relatively inefficient. Our result supports Stigler's Survivor Principle that survivor firms are relatively efficient. / Graduation date: 1998

This paper uses general equilibrium static and dynamic models to examine the economic and environmental effect of capital liberalization policy based on the general equilibrium static and dynamic models. The first topic develops a static general equilibrium model of a small open economy in the presence of unemployment with three sectors: a nontradeable sector, a tradeable sector, and an environmental sector. In the second section, I use a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in the presence of unemployment with three sectors: an importable sector, an exportable sector, and an environmental sector. In the last section I analyze the environmental effect of a developing country's capital liberalization policy when the consumer values the environment. The dynamic model, based on intertemporal optimization, focuses on the role of how land development is affected by foreign capital investment. The time-varying dynamic policies, such as planned permanent and planned gradual capital liberalization, are investigated to analyze the dynamic path of land and foreign capital stock in the short-run. The major findings of this paper are described as follows. In the long-run dynamic analysis, the production of the environmental good in a developing country is reduced when the developing country has a positive net income effect due to further capital liberalization, if there is an initial shortage of capital investment. The reduction of the environmental good might have a significant welfare impacts on the welfare of a country if the consumer places high value on the environment. This result indicates that countries with less environmental awareness are likely to improve the welfare of their countries whereas countries with strong environmental awareness are likely to reduce the welfare of their countries with capital liberalization. The other important result is that inclusion of the environment in the consumer's utility function slows down the pace of land development in the short-run dynamic model if the developing country lowers its capital investment tax rate. / Graduation date: 1996