This thesis presents an analysis of the dynamic process of economic growth, national welfare and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. An assessment of the methodological designs of applied growth research is undertaken in order to polarise the limitations associated with cross-sectional growth regressions. The cross-country cross- sectional methodology that has been the dominant feature of empirical growth analysis may suffer from an endogeneity and omitted variable bias. A panel data approach is adopted in order to address the econometric issues associated with cross-sectional study designs. To highlight the discrepancies between theory and empirics, a rudimentary description of the Solow model is offered. Extensions of the Solow paradigm are also discussed and form the basis of the theoretical foundations of the research. The relationship between health and economic growth within the existing literature has considered the consequences of poor population health in determining national income levels. Disease-specific effects have been included in growth regressions to capture the output losses associated with the widespread reduction in human capabilities. This thesis contributes to the existing literature by testing the empirical relationship between economic growth and the HIV/AIDS epidemic for a broad cross-section of countries. Previous empirical studies have not presented a unified account of the epidemic's effects in determining cross- country productivity differentials. The way in which the epidemic might impede economic prosperity is considered by drawing upon the existing literature. The strengths and limitations of previous study estimates are considered in relation to the study design. A more robust empirical estimator for growth regressions is proposed in the form of a system Generalised Method of Moments estimator. The research extends on previous study estimates by considering the epidemic's effect across the conditional quantiles of the growth distribution. A central prediction of the neoclassical growth paradigm relates to the convergence hypothesis in which poorer economies are considered to achieve faster growth rates. By drawing upon the distributional changes in national income over time for the entire cross-section of countries, this thesis will assess the potential barriers that may violate the theoretical predictions of the convergence hypothesis. An empirical assessment of the role of convergence clubs, mortality and poverty traps will be presented through an analysis of the changes in health and income inequality over time. The distributional shifts that have occurred over the period under analysis consider the consequences of growth as a measure of national welfare.

This paper investigates the relationship between economic development and the average Level of education as well as the degree of inequality in the distribution of education, respectively. Approaching this question in a dynamic panel over 60 years and 143 countries with a system GMM estimator reveals strong support for the inclusion of an interaction term between the education Gini coeffcient and average years of schooling, indicating the existence of nonlinear effects. We contribute to the literature in providing strong evidence that more schooling is good for economic growth - irrespective of its distribution - but that the coeffcient is variable and substantially declining in inequality. On the other hand, inequality is positively related to economic growth for low average levels of education, whereas highly educated countries exhibit a statistically insignificant negative relationship between inequality and economic growth. From this it follows that at least a slight increase in the degree of inequality is necessary in order to haul initially poor and low educated economies out of the poverty trap. However, as economies become educated, the effect of educational inequality mainly works indirectly. Accordingly, countries that show greater educational inequality experience lower macro economic returns to education than more equal economies, on average. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

One of the most visible indicators of the increasing global integration of the world economy over the past decade or so has been the phenomenal growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows and expansion of cross-border activities of multinational enterprises. FDI inflows are considered as channels of entrepreneurship, technology, management skills, and resources that are scarce in developing countries and Southern Africa in particular. Recent developments in growth theory highlight the importance of improvements in technology, efficiency and productivity in simulating growth. In this regard, FDI’s contribution to growth comes through its role as a conduit for transferring its advanced technology from the industrialized to the developing economies and as such FDI inflows could help in the industrialization of the host countries. For instance, Findlay (1978) postulates that FDIs increases the rate of technical progress in the host country through a “contagion” effect from the more advanced technology and management practices used by foreign firms. Since FDI is said to be the most stable source of private capital for developing and transition economies, attracting FDI is at the top of the agenda of such economies around the world as they aim to reduce poverty that is deep and widespread. The paper will look at FDI and its contributions; discuss the relationship between FDI and economic growth; explore the determinants of FDI and economic growth; consider the implications of FDI to economic growth and poverty alleviation; examine Taiwan’s experience when its development was closer to current levels in Africa and Southern Africa in particular; and explore how the Southern African region can attain economic growth through FDI and alleviate its deep and widespread poverty. In trying to assess the extent to which FDI contributes to construction of production facilities, infusion of innovative technologies, management strategies, workforce practices, new employment, and skill transfer, the paper seeks to shed light on appropriate policies to pursue in order to encourage high volumes of FDI and their likely implications for economic growth and poverty alleviation. While economic growth is not synonymous with economic development, it is at least necessary. Provided that mechanisms exist to facilitate some trickle-down of the benefits of economic growth to the impoverished, economic growth can aid in poverty reduction. The most important mechanism by which trickle-down occurs is via employment-creating economic growth. In this way, it is possible that, if FDI serves as a catalyst for economic growth, it will stimulate development and contribute to alleviating poverty (Lipsey, R., 2000). David Dollar (2001) states that Globalization has been a force for growth and poverty reduction in a diverse group of countries and defines globalization as the growing integration of economies and societies around the world as a result of flows of goods and services, capital, people, and ideas. He claims that integration accelerates development and reduces gaps between the developed and developing countries by raising productivity in the developing world. In this way globalization can be a powerful force for poverty reduction. FDI is one element that links the Southern part of Africa to the global economy and as a World Bank report (2001) shows that rapid economic growth and poverty reduction are positive aspects of globalization, the volume of FDI attracted will have an influence on whether the Southern Africa’s poor can benefit from the globalization of markets.

This thesis covers a broad range of topics in the general area of economic growth theory and economics of technological change. It is primarily about the ultimate sources of growth and its ultimate limitations. We scrutinize the implications of several specifications of long-run growth "engines" which can be found across the theoretical literature and put forward their generalizations and extensions. At the highest level of generality, we provide a formal proof that balanced (i.e. exponential) growth requires knife-edge assumptions which cannot be satisfied by typical values of model parameters. This result implies that at least one such knife-edge assumption must be made if a given model is supposed to deliver balanced growth over the long run. Next, we deal with the issue of resource-based limits to long-run growth. We propose to promote technological progress which would improve the substitutability between non-renewable and renewable resources: if the elasticity of substitution between the two kinds of resources exceeds unity, production will not fall down to zero even after the non-renewable resources will have been completely depleted. Factor-augmenting technological progress can also be helpful, but its effects are much less pronounced and it must go on forever in order to assure sustainable production. Another question asked is whether it is plausible that R&D-based growth, fueled by steady increases in the world’s population, can be extended into indefinite time. We answer this question by introducing endogenous fertility choice, with population entering the utility functional multiplicatively, into an R&D-based semi-endogenous growth model. The next issue addressed here are the idea-based microfoundations of aggregate production functions. We discuss the correspondence between the shape of production functions, the direction of technical change, and the possibility of sustained endogenous growth. A broad class of production functions, nesting both the Cobb-Douglas and the CES function, is derived. Finally, we discuss the impact of the heterogeneity of innovations on long-run economic dynamics: we extend the semi-endogenous growth model with a distinction between radical and incremental innovations. Total R&D output is assumed to depend on technological opportunity which is depleted by incremental innovations but renewed by radical innovations. The dynamic interplay of the arrivals of the two types of innovations is shown to give rise to oscillations along the transition to the economy’s balanced growth path.

<p> </p><p>The purpose of this paper is to examine whether foreign direct investment, FDI, has any impact on economic growth in Mexico. In order to find a possible connection I use a multiple regression analysis with GDP per capita as dependent variable. Furthermore, I critically examine previous studies of FDI and its effect on GDP per capita in Mexico as well as other studies with several developed and developing countries. The difference between this paper and previous studies is that the data is more up-to-date here. My results, like most of the previous studies, do not indicate on any statistical significance that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth. FDI do however seem to produce positive spillover effects on the domestic economy, mainly through knowledge and technological spillovers.</p><p> </p><p> </p>

<p>Tanzania is one of the world’s poorest countries. But it has a lot to offer and in recent years both tourists and companies have realised this. This thesis focuses on the companies and takes a closer look at the growth performance and the inflow of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to Tanzania. By presenting a case on the cement industry in Tanzania the thesis also provide some insight in the mechanisms of FDI on a more practical level. The findings conclude that the FDI and growth have both increased extensively since the 1990’s, but I refrain from comments on the causality of this relationship. The economic reforms that the country underwent in the 1990’s are thought to have played a key role in the development of the country. From the case presented we draw the conclusion that a FDI can affect the value chain as well as the whole country in numerous ways.</p>

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / This thesis evaluates the impact of spending by the Department of Defense and the Federal Government upon the economic growth of the states in which funds are expended. A pooled cross-section and time-series analysis is performed on a data base describing the period 1976-1985 and including the forty-eight contiguous states. Personal income is used as a proxy to measure economic growth. The econometric models are estimated using three separate regression methodologies. Consistent parameter estimates permit the author to conclude that Defense Investment spending is highly associated with economic growth. Defense Expense spending is less highly associated with growth. Federal spending other than for defense or intergovernmental aid to state and local governments exhibits an inconclusive relationship with economic growth. / http://archive.org/details/effectsofdepartm00anas / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

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The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend. (authors' abstract)

We propose a method to deal simultaneously with model uncertainty and correlated regressors in linear regression models by combining elastic net specifications with a spike and slab prior. The estimation method nests ridge regression and the LASSO estimator and thus allows for a more flexible modelling framework than existing model averaging procedures. In particular, the proposed technique has clear advantages when dealing with datasets of (potentially highly) correlated regressors, a pervasive characteristic of the model averaging datasets used hitherto in the econometric literature. We apply our method to the dataset of economic growth determinants by Sala-i-Martin et al. (Sala-i-Martin, X., Doppelhofer, G., and Miller, R. I. (2004). Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach. American Economic Review, 94: 813-835) and show that our procedure has superior out-of-sample predictive abilities as compared to the standard Bayesian model averaging methods currently used in the literature. (authors' abstract) / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics