1997年7月2日泰國宣布放棄泰銖釘住美元而改採管理浮動匯率制度，乃掀起東南亞國家貨幣貶值的危機﹔同時這些國家股價亦遭滑鐵盧之災。東南亞國家金融風暴（亞洲金融風暴）的面貌是﹕幣值與股價同時大幅下滑。但1980年代末期，台灣股價暴漲與新台幣對美金匯率之升值幾乎是同時間發生的。新台幣升值幅度相當的大，且新台幣升值是漸進的，這予投機者以機會。亞洲金融風暴後，央行力守一美元匯兌新台幣在28.6元的匯率，動用近50億美元，打擊投機客，並同時調降存款準備率，放出1350億元的強力貨幣，予股市一股強力的活水。其目的是守住匯價，亦可使股價止跌。然而，市場的表現不是如此，1997年9月與10月股價卻直直下落。 　　研究期間為1990年1月1日至1999年1月31日止，並分成三子期間，以利比較風暴後兩市場互動關係，資料為發行量加權平均股價指數收盤價及新台幣對美元的銀行間平均收盤即期匯率之日資料；類股指數之研究期間為1997年7月1日至1999年1月31日止。運用GARCH模型進行實證分析，並利用一般化動差估計式(Generalized Method of Moments Estimator; GMM) 來估計所建構的迴歸式，以期達成下列目的﹕ 1. 確認台灣股票市場及外匯市場之互動結構關係。 2. 亞洲金融風暴後，其結構關係變化為何？ 3. 確認亞洲金融風暴後，台灣外匯市場對股票市場之各類股的互動結構 關係。 實証結果為： 1. 亞洲金融風暴前，有匯率對股市的報酬率波動外溢效果，亞洲金融風暴後，此報酬率波動外溢效果較風暴前減少，而其它影響股市的因素（非關匯率因素）反而逐漸增強。 2. 股匯市從單向關係（只有匯市影響股市）演變成雙向互動關係，且股市對匯市影響力增強。 3. 金融保險類、水泥窯製類及造紙類，此三類最不受匯市的影響。 4. 塑膠化工類、營造建材類、食品類及紡織纖維類，此四類受當期匯市報酬率的負影響，亦即新台幣升值，此四類股股價會上漲。而機電類股，則受滯延4期匯市報酬率的負影響。 5. 營造建材類，報酬率波動受到其他因素（非關匯率因素）影響很大。 目錄 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究背景與動機……………………………………… 1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………………… 6 第三節 研究限制……………………………………………… 7 第二章 相關理論探討 第一節 匯率的意義、種類及其影響因素…………………… 8 第二節 匯率變動對股票價格的影響………………………… 11 第三節 效率資本市場理論…………………………………… 14 第三章 相關文獻探討 第一節 國外相關文獻………………………………………… 16 第二節 國內相關文獻………………………………………… 19 第四章 研究方法 第一節 相關模型……………………………………………… 25 第二節 分析程序與方法……………………………………… 27 第五章 資料來源與處理 第一節 資料來源與研究期間………………………………… 34 第二節 資料處理……………………………………………… 34 第三節 基本統計分析………………………………………… 35 第六章 實証結果與分析 第一節 股市與匯市報酬率及報酬率波動外溢效果實証結果 46 第二節 各類股與匯市報酬率及報酬率波動外溢效果實証結果 ………………………………………………………… 72 第七章 結論與建議……………………………………………… 76 參考文獻…………………………………………………………… 108 表次 表5-1 股匯市報酬率之基本檢定統計量……………………… 37 表5-2 1997/7/1至1999/1/31各類股之基本檢定統計量…… 41 表6-1 1990/1/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（使用Pearson 交叉相關檢定）………………………………………… 48 表6-2 1990/1/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（使用GMM估計式）… 53 表6-3 1990/1/1至1994/12/3外溢效果（使用GMM估計式）… 58 表6-4 1995/1/1至1997/6/30外溢效果（使用GMM估計式）… 63 表6-5 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（使用GMM估計式）… 68 表6-6 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與金融保險類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 74 表6-7 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與水泥窯製類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 78 表6-8 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與塑膠化工類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 82 表6-9 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與營造建材類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 86 表6-10 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與機電類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 90 表6-11 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與食品類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 94 表6-12 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與造紙類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 98 表6-13 1997/7/1至1999/1/31外溢效果（匯市與紡織纖維類股 ，使用GMM估計式）……………………………………… 102

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The Swedish population is rapidly increasing in educational level in the past two decades and educational level has long been a topic of interest for labor productivity. This increase in educational level brings up an interesting discussion of whether the remoteness of a university helps create productivity and if so by how much. This is a study that will try and explain the impact on regional productivity by having a university closer, using the distance to the closest university of each municipality in Sweden, and depending on what quality this university possess. Using simple OLS regressions results have shown some reasons for increased productivity, either positive or negative, while distance showed to not matter for regional productivity at all. This field is somewhat untouched, and with further research and by including other geographical economic theories, it could become an interesting study.

The aim of the research was to investigate how to stimulate sustainable consumer behaviors that lead to a lowering of the carbon footprint. Because of environmental challenges at the individual and societal levels, researchers agree that behavioral change is necessary. We argue that when already performing a sustainable behavior, this behavior can spill over to other sustainable actions, even to more difficult ones. First, we studied whether a positive behavioral spillover occurs between product categories and whether the spillover effect depends on the ease or difficulty of the sustainable behavior. Second, we investigated whether high awareness of sustainability determines the spillover between categories. We conducted three online experiments in Central Europe, investigating whether spillover takes place between behaviors assigned to the same category (transport or food) or between behaviors assigned to different categories (transport or food). In all three studies participants had to make two independent decisions. In studies 1a (N=281) and 1b (N=195), the effect of the ease/difficulty of the behavior was tested. In study 2 (N=164), awareness of CO2 emission reducing effects was manipulated. Findings revealed a behavioral spillover between sustainable choices.

<p> </p><p>The purpose of this paper is to examine whether foreign direct investment, FDI, has any impact on economic growth in Mexico. In order to find a possible connection I use a multiple regression analysis with GDP per capita as dependent variable. Furthermore, I critically examine previous studies of FDI and its effect on GDP per capita in Mexico as well as other studies with several developed and developing countries. The difference between this paper and previous studies is that the data is more up-to-date here. My results, like most of the previous studies, do not indicate on any statistical significance that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth. FDI do however seem to produce positive spillover effects on the domestic economy, mainly through knowledge and technological spillovers.</p><p> </p><p> </p>

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether foreign direct investment, FDI, has any impact on economic growth in Mexico. In order to find a possible connection I use a multiple regression analysis with GDP per capita as dependent variable. Furthermore, I critically examine previous studies of FDI and its effect on GDP per capita in Mexico as well as other studies with several developed and developing countries. The difference between this paper and previous studies is that the data is more up-to-date here. My results, like most of the previous studies, do not indicate on any statistical significance that FDI has a positive effect on economic growth. FDI do however seem to produce positive spillover effects on the domestic economy, mainly through knowledge and technological spillovers.

With regard to government-owned firm privatization and technology spillovers effect, many papers had investigated before. But the combination of two type of topics, mixed oligopoly and R&D spillover effects ,is unusual. This paper will show how technology spillovers effects markets including both private and public firms. We apply the model of D¡¦Aspremont and Jacquemin (1998) and reassign the objective function of White (1996). In this paper, we present two main results. First, when the commodity is easily replicated due to spillover effect, its production cost must lower. The existence of government-owned firms can higher social welfare and market output. Therefore, government intervention can correct market failure. Second, That government subsidize research cost to public firms can encourage firms to proceed to research and develop. But subsidy cause social welfare reduction under no spillover effect situation. On the contrary, subsidy to public firms higher social welfare in spillover effect situation.

Prediabetes is associated with an elevated risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and associated cardiovascular complications. Lifestyle factors such as physical activity (PA) and dietary intake are strongly implicated in the development of metabolic disease, yet few Americans meet PA and dietary recommendations. Middle-aged and older adults are at increased risk for developing prediabetes and T2DM due to age-related muscle loss, increased fat mass, and alterations in glucose handling. In addition, this segment of the population is least likely to meet PA guidelines, particularly the resistance training (RT) recommendation of completing a whole body routine 2x/week. Ideally, individuals would alter their lifestyle in order to meet PA guidelines and habitually consume a healthy diet, to decrease disease risk. However, behavior change is difficult and optimal strategies to promote and maintain changes have yet to be determined. Furthermore, behavior change interventions tend to be time-, cost-, and resource-intensive, limiting the ability for efficacious programs to be translated into community settings and broadly disseminated. Evidence suggests that health-related behaviors, particularly diet and exercise habits, tend to cluster together. Thus, intervening on one behavior (e.g. PA) may elicit a spillover effect, promoting alterations in other behaviors (e.g. diet), though findings to date are conflicting. The purpose of this dissertation was to determine if participation in a social cognitive theory-based RT program targeting the initiation and maintenance of RT exerts a spillover effect and is associated with alterations in dietary intake and/or non-RT PA in a population at risk for T2DM. Data from the 15-month Resist Diabetes study was analyzed to evaluate this possibility. Sedentary, overweight/obese (BMI 25-39.9 kg/m2 ), middle-aged and older (50 -69 years) adults with prediabetes (impaired fasting glucose and/or impaired glucose tolerance) completed a 3 month initiation phase where they RT 2x/week in a lab-gym with an ACSM-certified personal trainer. Participants then completed a 6-month faded contact maintenance phase, and a 6-month no-contact phase during which they were to continue RT on their own in a public facility. No advice or encouragement was given to participants to alter dietary intake or non-RT PA habits. At baseline, and months 3, 9, and 15, three non-consecutive 24-hour diet recalls were collected to evaluate dietary intake and quality, the Aerobics Institute Longitudinal Study Questionnaire was completed to evaluate non-RT PA, and body mass, body composition, and strength (3 repetition maximum on leg and chest press) were measured. At months 3, 9, and 15 social cognitive theory (SCT) constructs were assessed with a RT Health Beliefs Questionnaire. In the first study, dietary intake was assessed at baseline and after 3 months of RT. Using paired sample t-tests, reductions in intake of energy (1914 ± 40 kcal vs. 1834 ± 427 kcal, p = 0.010), carbohydrate (211.6 ± 4.9 g vs. 201.7 ± 5.2 g, p = 0.015), total sugar (87.4 ± 2.7 g vs. 81.5 ± 3.1 g, p = 0.030), glycemic load (113.4 ± 3.0 vs. 108.1 ±3.2, p= 0.031), fruits and vegetables (4.6±0.2 servings vs. 4.1±0.2 servings, p= 0.018), and sweets and desserts (1.1 ± 0.07 servings vs. 0.89 ± 0.07 servings, p = 0.023) were detected from baseline to month 3. No changes in other dietary intake variables were observed. These findings supported additional investigation in this area. The second study assessed changes in overall diet quality (Healthy Eating Index [HEI]-2010 scores) and non-RT PA over the initiation, maintenance, and no-contact phases using mixed effects models. Demographic, physiological, and psychosocial factors that may predict alterations to diet quality and non-RT PA were also explored. Energy and carbohydrate intake decreased with RT (β= -87.9, p=.015 and β= -16.3, p<.001, respectively). No change in overall dietary quality (HEI-2010 score: β= -0.13, p=.722) occurred, but alterations in HEI-2010 sub-scores were detected. Maintenance of RT was accompanied by an increase in MET-min/week of total non-RT PA (β=153.5, p=0.01), which was predicted by increased self-regulation for RT (β=78.1, p=0.03). RT may be a gateway behavior leading to improvements in other health-related behaviors among adults with prediabetes. These results support the use of singlecomponent vs. multi-component interventions. This may have broad translational potential for the development of time-, resource-, and cost-efficient lifestyle interventions which can improve multiple health-related behaviors and decrease disease risk. / Ph. D.

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京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第23666号 / 経博第649号 / 新制||経||300(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 柴田 章久, 准教授 遊喜 一洋, 教授 佐々木 啓明 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM