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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

有關金融市場的三篇實證研究 / Three empirical essays on financial markets

李淯靖 Unknown Date (has links)
本論文是由三篇關於金融市場的實證研究組合而成。第一篇以權益存續期間為主題,主要是利用迴歸模型估計台灣上市產業指數的實證權益存續期間,以探討股票報酬率的利率敏感度。迴歸模型中控制了三個重要的股票風險因子─市場因子、規模因子與價值因子。但其中,我們改以正交市場因子代替市場因子,以避免因為利率變動與市場報酬間存在共線性,而造成權益存續期間有可能錯估的問題。此外,基於權益存續期間具有會隨時間改變的動態特性,本文亦對各產業指數最近一次結構性變化的發生時點進行偵測,並據以推估最近期的權益存續期間。實證結果顯示:除了鋼鐵業的權益存續期間不顯著之外,其他所有產業指數皆具有負的權益存續期間,表示其報酬率與利率變動呈現出正向關係。在程度上,則以營建類指的利率敏感度最大,汽車類指最小。 第二篇應用了Diebold and Yilmaz (2009)的外溢指標分析台灣上市產業指數間的連動性,其優點是可以瞭解到產業間相互影響的方向以及程度。實證結果顯示:台灣上市產業指數間的外溢程度頗高,並以營建業為最主要的影響者,而相反地,鋼鐵業則是主要的被影響者。外溢指標具有隨時間改變的動態特性,而且透過動態外溢指標可觀察到次貸風暴蔓延的嚴重性。 第三篇應用了Goyal, Perignon and Villa (2008)所提出的多群組因素分析法,檢測美國總人口死亡率的共同因子個數。該方法最大的優點是能夠有效地辨識出真正的共同因子,避免了一般因素分析容易將解釋能力高的群組內獨特因子誤認為共同因子的缺點。根據檢測結果顯示,美國總人口死亡率的共同因子共有兩個,而且第二個因子的重要性隨時間愈來愈明顯。 / This thesis consists of three empirical essays about financial markets. The first essay analyzes the sensitivity of stock returns to changes in interest rates by estimating empirical equity duration of 18 industrial indices in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. In the regression models, we also control for the market excess return and the Fama-French mimicking returns for size and book-to-market factors. To avoid the effects of the multicolinearity between the market excess return and the interest rate changes, we replace the market excess return by the orthogonalized market factor. In addition, considering the time-varying pattern of empirical equity duration, we further adopt the reversed ordered Cusum test proposed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2002) to identify the most recent break of the regression relationship, and then extract the post-break data to re-estimate the up-to-date empirical equity duration. The result shows that except the Steel index, all industrial indices exhibit significantly negative equity durations, indicating a positive relationship between industrial index returns and interest rate changes in Taiwan. Among them, the Construction index has the largest interest rate sensitivity, while the lowest one is for the Automobile index. The second essay focuses on the nature of financial market interdependence, both in terms of returns and returns volatilities. Being capable of identifying the direction and magnitude of linkages among financial markets, the spillover index proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) is used to measure return and volatility spillovers between the top eight industrial indices based on market value in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. We find that for both returns and volatilities, the spillover effects among industrial indices in Taiwan are substantial. In particular, the Construction index is the major transmitter of shocks to other industries, and the Steel index, in contrast, suffers the most shocks from others. The spillover index fluctuates over time and indeed detects the severity of subprime mortgage crisis. The third essay adopts the multigroup factor analysis proposed by Goyal, Perignon and Villa (2008) to estimate the number of common pervasive factors for annual age-specific mortality for the entire U.S. populations. While the standard principal component analysis easily treats any group-specific factor as pervasive one due to its high contribution to total system variance, this methodology is able to estimate the space spanned by common and group-specific pervasive factors and recognize the true common factors. Empirical result shows that there are only two common pervasive factors governing the death rates in the United States; in particular, the importance of the second factor increases over time.
32

The absolution of non-audit services – unravelling a nexus of research : A quantitative study of non-audit services’ impact on financial reporting quality among private firms in Sweden. / Konsultationstjänsters absolution – en utredning av tidigare forskning : En kvantitativ studie av konsultationstjänsters påverkan av den finansiella rapporteringens kvalitet bland svenska privata bolag.

Fransson, Oliver, Sleman, Simon January 2020 (has links)
Non-audit services provided by audit firms have been a popular scientific topic within the fields of audit and accounting research over the past decades. Numerous researchers have attempted to provide a theoretical contribution by examining different ways of measuring the concepts of audit quality and financial reporting quality. The resulting consequences are mixed results and a lack of consensus among researchers from both research fields. The two, in other situations, rather distinctive research fields of audit quality and financial reporting quality, have, in several cases, been confounded without analytical reflection regarding their differences. In parallel to the scientific progress, regulatory bodies have noticed the increasing trend of non-audit services and how they constitute larger portions of the audit firm’s annual revenues. Their responses have been legal restrictions, both in the US and Europe, in order to cease the trend. The purpose of this thesis is to make a pronounced investigation regarding the relationship between non-audit services and financial reporting quality in Swedish private firms. Furthermore, it will also be of interest to examine if this proposed relationship is moderated by the presence of the four global market-leading audit firms or not. The study is based on a deductive approach and a quantitative research strategy, to collect and analyze data from annual reports. To fulfill the purpose of the study, the data is analyzed by conducting binary and multinomial logistic regression tests. The results suggest that there is an association between certain types of non-audit services and financial reporting quality. Specifically, services that are unrelated to tax have proven to be statistically significant positively correlated with financial reporting quality. No evidence was found supporting a moderating effect by the characteristics of audit firms, suggesting that the choice of an audit firm is irrelevant for attaining high financial reporting quality when purchasing non-audit services. The study’s theoretical contribution is the novelty arising from the combination of studying non-audit services’ impact on financial reporting quality within a Swedish setting on private firms. The study also provides empirical contribution by using a proxy for financial reporting quality rarely used in previous research. The findings are of practical importance since they suggest that firms potentially benefit in their financial reporting by purchasing these kinds of services, which contradicts past actions made by regulatory bodies.
33

Modal filtering for active control of floor vibration under impact loading / 衝撃荷重による床振動のアクティブ制御のためのモーダルフィルタリング

Xue, Kai 26 March 2018 (has links)
京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第21091号 / 工博第4455号 / 新制||工||1692(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 五十嵐 晃, 教授 八木 知己, 准教授 古川 愛子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM
34

The Spillover Effect of Proximity to LEED-Energy Star Certified Office Buildings On Neighborhood Market Value

Suh, Min Jae 06 May 2015 (has links)
The construction industry's two main certifications are Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) and Energy Star. To achieve the triple bottom line of sustainability for these certifications, both certifications should make a positive impact individually as well as mutually, with their impact extending to the surrounding neighborhood. This research examined the spillover effect of LEED and/or Energy Star certified office buildings on the property values of other buildings in their neighborhood in Manhattan, New York City from an economic standpoint. The spatial analysis approach using the Geographic Information System and the statistical analysis approach based on the Hedonic Price Model and the Linear Mixed Effect Model were applied to identify the geographical distribution of LEED and/or Energy Star certified office buildings and their other buildings in their neighborhoods and analyze the impact of the former on the latter. The results were as follows: 1) There was a significant correlation between a LEED and/or Energy Star certified office building and the unit market values of its adjoining buildings through the unit market values of the certified office building, the LEED and/or Energy Star certification achievement, and the major features of LEED certification; 2) There was a varying spillover effect of the certified office building on the median unit market value of buildings depending on their proximities to a LEED and/or Energy Star certified office building. This research provides a firm foundation for further efforts to quantify the spillover effect of LEED and/or Energy Star certification on a neighborhood from an economic standpoint, thus supporting and encouraging growth in the local real estate market and benefitting not only the owners, developers, and investors of the certified office building but also the owners of neighboring buildings. / Ph. D.
35

外人直接投資進入模式與外溢效果

汪欣寧 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究利用亞洲九個國家,自1995至2005年共十一年的資料,以固定效果模型對外人直接投資進入模式的外溢效果進行估計,探討外人直接投資進入模式與國家的勞動生產力之間的關係?另外,本文也研究外人直接投資的進入模式在高低技術及高低收入國家間是否會產生不同的外溢效果?   實證結果發現,跨國併購的行為剛進入時,並不會帶來顯著的外溢效果,然而只要一國的人力資本達到一定的門檻時,跨國併購便會為地主國帶來正向的外溢效果。而外商新建投資,可為當地市場產生正向的外溢效果。而透過技術能力的增進後,外商新建投資會帶來正向且顯著的外溢效果。 其次,在中低收入(技術)國家,外商新建投資透過人力資本的加乘後,也會產生顯著的正向外溢效果。 / The research adopts eleven-year of information from nine different Asian countries to evaluate the impact of spillover effect from the entry mode of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the national labor productivity. That is to construct a fixed-effects model studying, utilizing the information from nine Asian countries on FDI flows from 1995 to 2005. Moreover, the research also test the different spillover effect of entry mode between high-tech/high-incomed and low-tech/low-incomed countries. The empirical result shows that when first initiates a cross-border mergers or acquisitions, it doesn’t obviously result in the spillover effect. Thus, a country will has higher productivity of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, only when it has a minimum threshold stock of human capital. The foreign greenfield investment may have the positive spillover effect over the local market. And the higher the technology ,the higher the positive spillover effect of the foreign greenfield investment Lastly, in a low-tech/low-incomeed country,it will has higher productivity of foreign greenfield investment, also when it has a minimum threshold stock of human capital.
36

品牌知名度對消費者對品牌聯盟態度與外溢效果影響之研究 / The Influence of Brand Awareness on Customer Attitude to Brand Alliance and Feedback Effect

閻秀樺, Yen,Hsiu-Hua Unknown Date (has links)
品牌聯盟是市場上經常被運用的行銷策略,廠商藉由搭配另一個品牌共同推出產品,不僅增加原本產品的屬性,更讓消費者對於新產品產生更高的信心與正面的態度。消費者在對品牌聯盟產品形成態度的同時,也對原本單獨兩品牌產生了新的評價,使得消費者在品牌聯盟前後對於個別品牌的態度出現差異,造成品牌聯盟的外溢效果。本研究之目的在探討品牌聯盟類型中的組成份共品牌,是否會因為不同品牌知名度的組合,而影響消費者對品牌聯盟的態度。另外當品牌參與聯盟之後,消費者對品牌態度的改變,是否受其本身知名度以及在聯盟中擔任角色的影響。本研究設計一個2(主品牌知名度高/低)x2(成分品牌知名度高/低)x2(品牌聯盟成功/失敗)=8組的實驗,利用問卷瞭解消費者在各種組合下對品牌聯盟以及個別品牌的態度,再利用統計分析比較彼此的差異。 透過對214份有效問卷的分析,研究發現品牌知名度確實是影響消費者對品牌聯盟態度的因素。此外,消費者在品牌聯盟之後對個別品牌態度的變化幅度,會受品牌聯盟市場反應的好壞,品牌本身知名度,以及此品牌在聯盟中擔任角色的交互影響,而造成外溢效果的差異。品牌聯盟市場反應好壞不必然同時影響消費者對聯盟中兩個品牌的態度,消費者傾向於將品牌聯盟的成敗歸因於主品牌上,使主品牌的外溢效果大於成分品牌。另外品牌外溢效果同時會受品牌知名度與聯盟中主附品牌角色不同的影響。低知名度加上主品牌的組合最容易產生顯著的外溢效果。 / Brand alliance, also called co-branding, is a useful marketing strategy which helps an existing brand to leverage associations, strengthen its image and influence consumers’ attitudes by linking itself to other brands. A special case of brand association is ingredient branding, which highlights a product’s ingredient brand in order to signal the quality of co-branded products. While consumers perceive a co-brand and form attitudes to it, the attitudes toward each constituent brand are also influenced, causing the spillover effect. This study tries to find out if brand awareness is the key factor to impact consumers’ attitudes to a brand alliance. Further, it explains how spillover effect differs between a main brand and an ingredient brand when either positive or negative information about an ingredient branding product is presented to customers. Experiments are conducted to compare an array of consumer’s attitudes and spillover effects of ingredient branding products. Main brands and ingredient brands of different awareness levels are paired alternatively to design eight co-branding conditions. The study finds out brand awareness is a key factor that influences consumer’s attitudes toward a brand association. The combination of two high-awareness brands gains the more positive attitudes than other awareness combinations. However, the level of awareness has little to do with the strength of spillover effect. Attitudes to a brand alliance, positive or not, do not necessarily influence the attitudes to either allied brands. Spillover effect is not a symmetrical phenomenon, and therefore one brand usually gains more spillover effect than their counterpart. Generally the main brand in an ingredient branding has higher spillover effect than the ingredient brand.
37

Comment l'exposition au risque affecte la vleur ? : Les fusions transfrontalières et les effets du plan Paulson / How the risk exposure affects the value? the cross-border mergers and the paulson plan’s effects : The cross-border mergers and the paulson plan’s effects

Zhang, Junyao 03 July 2015 (has links)
La gestion du risque est un sujet primordial au niveau d’une entreprise et au niveau de l’Etat. Cette thèse investigue ce thème au travers de trois essais empiriques. Le premier essai s’intéresse à la gestion du risque de change par les entreprises. Les résultats montrent que les Fusions & Acquisitions transfrontalières offrent une couverture opérationnelle contre le risque de change. De plus, cette technique de couverture crée de la valeur pour les actionnaires. La baisse de l’exposition au risque de change (en valeur absolue) est positivement associée avec les rentabilités anormales cumulées (CAR) pour les acquéreurs. Le deuxième et le troisième essai se concentrent sur la gestion du risque au niveau de l’État - le plan de sauvetage (dit « plan Paulson ») pendant la crise financière récente aux États-Unis. Le deuxième essai confirme dans un premier temps l’effet positif du plan sur les CAR et la réduction des probabilités de défaut pour les banques participantes autour de son annonce initiale. Pourtant, l’effet du plan n’est pas neutre au sein des banques : les grands joueurs ont été les gagnants. Le dernier essai analyse les effets de bord du plan Paulson sur les pratiques d’octroi de prêts. Nos résultats révèlent qu’il y a un effet de bord positif et significatif de l’intervention gouvernementale sur la maturité des prêts syndiqués pendant la période postérieure à la crise, de 2010 à 2012. Néanmoins, cet impact positif n’apparaît pas pour la taille des prêts syndiqués. En somme, cette thèse empirique met en lumière d’une part les moyens efficaces d’une gestion du risque de change pour les entreprises, comme par exemple la couverture opérationnelle, et ses implications positives pour les actionnaires des acquéreurs, et d’autre part les résultats attendus d’une intervention de l’Etat, comme celle du plan Paulson, les effets de bord et les effets hétérogènes entre les établissements financiers. / The risk management is a crucially important topic at firm and country level. This thesis investigates this subject across three empirical essays. The first essay is interested in firm’s currency risk management. The results show that the cross-border Mergers & Acquisitions offer an operational hedging to the currency risk. Moreover, this hedging creates value for acquirers’ shareholders. The decrease in currency risk exposure (in absolute value) is positively associated with acquirers’ cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). The second and the third essay concentrate on the risk management at country level - the bailout plan (the Paulson plan) during the recent financial crisis in United States. The second essay in a first step confirms the positive effect of the plan on bank participants’ CAR and on the decrease of default probability around the plan’s initial announcement. Nevertheless, the effect of the plan is not neutral among banks and big players were the winners. The last essay analyzes the Paulson plan’s spillover effect on the loan supply. Our results reveal that there is a positive and significant spillover effect of the government intervention on syndicated loans’ maturities during the post-crisis period from 2010 to 2012. However, this positive impact is not found for the size of syndicated loans. In sum, this empirical thesis from one side sheds light on the efficient ways of firm’s currency risk management, such as the operational hedging, and its positive effect for acquirers’ shareholders; from another side for the country-level government intervention, it highlights the Paulson plan’s spillover effect on syndicated loans and the heterogeneous impact among financial institutions.
38

How do Cooperation and Scientific Research Influence Drug Development? The Case of Cancer Disease

Li, Sihan 07 September 2023 (has links)
[ES] Más del 90 por ciento de los ensayos clínicos de medicamentos contra el cáncer fracasan. Por tanto, es necesario mejorar el conocimiento sobre los factores que aumentan el éxito del desarrollo de medicamentos. En esta tesis, se aborda esta cuestión desde la perspectiva de los Estudios de Innovación. Para ello, se revisa sistemáticamente 103 artículos relacionados con ensayos clínicos, publicados en revistas de innovación (1984-2021). Así se logra sintetizar los hallazgos existentes, clasificar los estudios por categorías y proporcionar algunas sugerencias teóricas y metodológicas para trabajos futuros. Se encuentra que las teorías del ciclo de vida del producto y de la innovación del usuario deberían ser aplicadas en la investigación futura para mejorar la compresión sobre el desarrollo de medicamentos. Se recomienda un mayor uso de los análisis causales, de regresión y de metodologías mixtas, especialmente en relación con los temas de la comercialización, la transferencia de conocimiento y los marcos institucionales, así como un mejor uso del aprendizaje automático y los lenguajes de programación por lo que se refiere a las herramientas informáticas de recogida de datos. De acuerdo con las lagunas de investigación identificadas en la revisión de la literatura, se explora el papel de la radicalidad, la formación de redes, la naturaleza básica y el impacto científico de la investigación en el éxito del desarrollo de fármacos a través de ensayos clínicos. Los resultados muestran que un mayor grado de radicalidad es menos susceptible de conducir al éxito. La relación entre densidad de la red y la tasa de éxito sigue una forma de U invertida. En redes de cooperación más densas, las organizaciones radicales tienen más posibilidades de éxito. El desarrollo radical de medicamentos implica que las organizaciones asuman más riesgos, lo que da lugar a más fracasos; sin embargo, una manera efectiva de incrementar la tasa de éxito del desarrollo radical de medicamentos es mediante la promoción de la densidad de las redes de cooperación. La investigación aplicada facilita que las organizaciones se involucren en el desarrollo de medicamentos, y la investigación básica es útil para incrementar la tasa de éxito del desarrollo de medicamentos. No obstante, la investigación aplicada de los cooperantes también incrementa la tasa de éxito a través de los efectos desbordamiento de la red. El impacto científico de la investigación juega un papel positivo tanto en involucrarse en el desarrollo de medicamentos como en conducirlo al éxito, directamente y través de los efectos desbordamiento de la red. Esta tesis proporciona algunas ideas para aumentar la tasa de éxito del desarrollo de medicamentos para organizaciones médicas y formuladores de políticas a través de estrategias de ciencia, cooperación e innovación. / [CAT] Més del 90 per cent dels assajos clínics de fàrmacs contra el càncer fracassen. Per tant, és necessari millorar el coneixement sobre els factors que augmenten l'èxit del desenvolupament de fàrmacs. En aquesta tesi, s'aborda aquesta qüestió des de la perspectiva dels Estudis d'Innovació. Per a això, es revisa sistemàticament 103 articles relacionats amb assajos clínics, publicats en revistes d'innovació (1984-2021). Així s'aconsegueix sintetitzar les troballes existents, classificar els estudis per categories i proporcionar alguns suggeriments teòrics i metodològics per a treballs futurs. Es troba que les teories del cicle de vida del producte i de la innovació de l'usuari haurien de ser aplicades en la investigació futura per a millorar la compressió sobre el desenvolupament de fàrmacs. Es recomana un major ús de les anàlisis causals, de regressió i de metodologies mixtes, especialment en relació amb els temes de la comercialització, la transferència de coneixement i els marcs institucionals, així com un millor ús de l'aprenentatge automàtic i els llenguatges de programació pel que fa a les eines informàtiques de recollida de dades. D'acord amb les llacunes d'investigació identificades en la revisió de la literatura, s'explora el paper de la radicalitat, la formació de xarxes, la naturalesa bàsica i l'impacte científic de la investigació en l'èxit del desenvolupament de fàrmacs a través d'assajos clínics. Els resultats mostren que un major grau de radicalitat és menys susceptible de conduir a l'èxit. La relació entre densitat de la xarxa i la taxa d'èxit segueix una forma d'U invertida. En xarxes de cooperació més denses, les organitzacions radicals tenen més possibilitats d'èxit. El desenvolupament radical de fàrmacs implica que les organitzacions assumisquen més riscos, la qual cosa dona lloc a més fracassos; no obstant això, una manera efectiva d'incrementar la taxa d'èxit del desenvolupament radical de fàrmacs és mitjançant la promoció de la densitat de les xarxes de cooperació. La investigació aplicada facilita que les organitzacions s'involucren en el desenvolupament de fàrmacs, i la investigació bàsica és útil per a incrementar la taxa d'èxit del desenvolupament de fàrmacs. No obstant això, la investigació aplicada dels cooperants també incrementa la taxa d'èxit a través dels efectes desbordament de la xarxa. L'impacte científic de la investigació juga un paper positiu tant a involucrar-se en el desenvolupament de fàrmacs com a conduir-lo a l'èxit, directament i través dels efectes desbordament de la xarxa. Aquesta tesi proporciona algunes idees per a augmentar la taxa d'èxit del desenvolupament de fàrmacs per a organitzacions mèdiques i formuladors de polítiques a través d'estratègies de ciència, cooperació i innovació. / [EN] Over 90% of clinical trials for cancer disease drugs fail. It is therefore necessary to increase understanding about the factors that increase the success of drug development. In the present thesis, this issue is addressed from the perspective of Innovation Studies. To this end, 103 articles related to clinical trials, published in innovation journals (1984-2021), are revised systematically. The existing findings are summarised, the studies are classified into categories and some suggestions for potential theoretical and methodological advances in Innovation Studies are provided. It is found that product life cycle and user innovation theories should be applied in future research to improve understanding about drug development. Further use of causal, regression and mixed-methods analysis is also recommended, especially related to the topics of commercialisation, knowledge transfer and institutional frameworks, along with a better use of machine learning and programming languages with regards to data gathering computer tools. Based on the research gaps identified in the literature review, an exploration is made of the role of radicalness, network formation, and the basicness and scientific impact of research on the success of drug development through clinical trials. The results show that a greater degree of radicalness is less likely to achieve success. The relationship between network density and success rate follows an inverted U-shape. In denser cooperation networks, radical organisations have a greater possibility of achieving success. Radical drug development involves organisations taking more risks, which results in more failures; however, an effective way of increasing the success rate of radical drug development is by promoting cooperation network density. Applied research encourages organisations to engage in drug development, and basic research is useful for increasing the success rate of drug development. Nevertheless, the applied research of cooperators also increases the success rate through network spillovers. The scientific impact of research plays a positive role in both the engagement and success of drug development, directly and through network spillovers. This thesis provides some insights to increase the success rate of drug development for medical organisations and policymakers through science, cooperation and innovation strategies. / I want to gratefully acknowledge the support from Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through Project CSO2016-79045-C2-2-R of the Spanish National R&D&I Plan, and Project AICO/2021/021 of the Valencian Government. The Universitat Politècnica de València funded my research through Contratos Pre-Doctorales UPV 2018 and Mobility Grants UPV 2019. / Li, S. (2023). How do Cooperation and Scientific Research Influence Drug Development? The Case of Cancer Disease [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/196380
39

技術發展型態與經濟成長關係之研究 / A Study of Technology Development Type and Economic Growth

張綱紘, Chang, Kang-Hung Unknown Date (has links)
本文嘗試在傳統的R&D模型中,引入技術引進的概念,並從技術發展型態的角度來探討其與經濟成長之關係。理論的結果告訴我們各個國家會採取何種技術發展的型態決定於其本身的技術水準。技術水準愈低的國家,基於成本的誘因,會採取較具優勢的技術引進的發展策略;相反地,技術水準較高的國家,則會利用本身較佳的技術優勢而自行研發。 採取不同技術發展型態的國家,其經濟成長的型態也跟著不同。採取技術引進策略的國家其成長的速度取決於本身和世界的技術差距,當差距愈大時,成長的速度就愈快;相反地,隨著差距的縮小,成長的速度也就會跟著緩慢下來。採取研發的國家,如同大部分R&D模型的結論,其均衡的成長路徑是維持一固定的成長率。 不同於以往內生成長模型只專注於長期的成長,我們的模型中,除了具有長期持續成長的特色外,更強調各個國家由於初始條件的差異及其成長的速度和世界成長的速度的不同,致使成長的路徑也會不同,而且每個國家收歛的恆定狀態也不相同,這也說明了為什麼世界各國之間會存在廣泛的所得差異性的現象。 另外,我們的理論也強調技術落後的國家不見得會永遠處於落後的地位,只要其成長的速度足夠支持其發生技術發展型態的結構性改變,就有可能追趕上先進國家,甚至超越。而原先處於領先地位的先進國家,也有可能因本身研發的效率退步,致使成長速度落後於世界的平均水準,結果反倒是由領先的地位退到落後國家之林。 而成長的另一個普遍獲得實證支持的現象,也就是在Solow模型中預測的條件性收歛,在我們的模型中的解釋是當一個國家的成長路徑一直高於世界的平均水準的話,換言之,該國家是一直在不斷進步的過程中,則也會發生所謂條件性收歛的現象。而我們的理論更預測了另一種現象是,當一個國家的成長路徑是處於世界平均水準之下的話,也就是說是由原本的領先退步到落後的過程中,其成長的速度反倒是開始時會較慢,而在接近收歛時開始加快速度,然後達到恆定狀態,這種現象和所謂的條件性收歛恰好反其道而行,我們稱之為逆條件性收歛現象。 除了理論之外,我們更藉由數值模擬的方式進行了政策上的分析。我們發現在成長速度上處於領先地位的國家,若要保持其領先的優勢,必定要採取研發的策略。而處於成長速度較緩慢的國家,若想要擺脫落後並追趕上領先國家的話,就得靠技術引進的方式來加快其成長的速度。 同時我們亦分析了幾種改變成長速度的政策手段,發現每一種政策的效果對不同的國家而言也不盡相同,所以各個國家所應採取的手段應視其條件而定。另外,當外生的世界成長率加快時,我們發現這個現象對成長速度落後的國家是很有幫助的,因為可以使得其速度加快趕上世界的水準。
40

網路廣告的溝通效果研究 / The study of internet advertising communication

林建志, Lin, Elton Unknown Date (has links)
隨著網際網路快速發展,自2007年起網路就已經超越報紙、成為台灣第二大消費者最常接觸的媒體,2010年台灣網路廣告投資量為新台幣85億元(預估2012年更高達117億元),但卻僅占台灣整體廣告量的9.1%、屈居第四名,落後傳統電視、報紙、雜誌的廣告投資量,其中很重要原因之一就是網路廣告的價值仍被許多廣告主質疑,且尚無被公認接受的網路廣告效益評估標準。 若以目前最常被用來評估網路廣告效益指標:CPM (每千人廣告曝光成本)及CTR(廣告點選率)而言,由於網路廣告的“曝光”不代表一定被看見,因此CPM只能作為媒體採購成本的參考;若以CTR作為評估標準,台灣目前平均廣告點選率已低於0.1%(2012年業界實際經驗值),是否就可以直接推論:『99.9%的廣告曝光是無效的?』(因為99.9%的曝光並不會吸引網友點選) 由於網路廣告的曝光一定有其價值性,因此期望透過本研究證明以下假說: 假說一: 曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者,比沒有曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者更容易回答有看到廣告中的指定品牌。 假說二: 曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者,比沒有曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者更容易回想到廣告中的指定品牌。 假說三:曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者如果家中有液晶電視,會比沒有曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者更容易提高對廣告中指定品牌的記憶度或偏好度。 假說四:曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者,比沒有曝露在指定品牌廣告下的消費者更容易引發聯想其他競品品牌(廣告外溢效果)。 研究結果證明:『即使網友在一般網路瀏覽行為中不刻意瀏覽網頁中的附帶廣告、甚至點選廣告,但只要在廣告上明顯揭露指定品牌名稱,就會有一定比例的網友對廣告留下印象』,因此即可推論:『即使平均廣告點選率= 0.1%,也不能直接推論 99.9%的廣告是無效的』。只要在廣告的設計上明顯揭露品牌/產品/活動名稱,就會有一定比例的消費者對廣告留下印象,但若廣告設計時無明顯揭露品牌名稱,則結果就如同本研究中的“無廣告操弄”,對提升品牌印象/價值毫無加分作用,更遑論可以提升偏好度/購買意願。 根據本研究結果顯示,即使消費者在搜尋網路資訊時已有特定目的,但仍會稍事注意到一旁的網路廣告(雖不一定很明確地意識到廣告的存在),因此建議廣告主不要以“廣告點選率CTR”作為唯一評估網路廣告成效的指標,以本研究證實,即使所有的受訪者皆無點選廣告,網路廣告曝光仍會有具有一定的價值。 最後有關“廣告外溢效果”的探討,雖然本次研究結果無法證明:『若是一個中等品牌偏好度的品牌在做廣告時,其產生的外溢效果會加惠於該產業的知名品牌,讓消費者因 “中等品牌偏好度的廣告” 而自動回憶起原本即喜歡的他牌,尤其是高知名度的領導品牌』,但如果後續能持續研究此議題並證明其假設成立,則領導品牌的媒體廣告投資週期就可適度避開二線品牌的廣告曝光期,因為當二線品牌刊登廣告可能也會同時喚起對領導品牌的回憶,領導品牌的廣告就可延後刊播,待二線品牌廣告停止時再接續播出,有可能達到整體媒體投資效益最大化(最佳化)、拉長廣告影響期間的目標。

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