Much outdoor recreation occurs on publicly owned land and water resources, or involves use of these public resources. Consequently, an economic problem arises concerning the value of recreational resources which do not have a conventional market price. Without a price to guide the allocation of resources, it is difficult to obtain optimal decisions in allocation of these publicly owned natural resources among alternative uses, including recreation, timber, and domestic livestock production. In Oregon, the big game resource has a great impact on the economy of the state. Positive values of this resource are related to recreational use and to income generated which benefit local economies. Negative values of big game include its competition for resources used for timber production and/or livestock grazing. In order to better assess the value of the big game resource, an attempt has been made in this thesis to improve demand models from which the net economic value of the Oregon big game resource can be derived. The data used in this study were obtained from the questionnaires mailed to a random sample of Oregon big game hunters during the fall of 1968. The travel cost method was used to estimate the demand for big game hunting, based on the actual behavior of the hunters. Several algebraic forms of the travel cost demand equation were estimated for the Northeast and the Central regions of Oregon. The concept of consumers' surplus was used to estimate the net economic value for the Oregon big game resources. Net economic value for the Northeast and Central regions of Oregon in 1968 dollars was approximately $14.3 million, based on the exponential demand function. Net economic value for the same two regions was approximately $11 million, based on the linear demand function. An attempt was made in this study to predict the changes in consumers' surplus from changes in the number of deer and elk harvested. Note that the regression models in this thesis implied that a ten percent increase in harvest would increase the consumers' surplus of hunters by more than ten percent. However, the hypothesis that a ten percent increase in harvest would increase consumers' surplus by exactly ten percent was not rejected by a statistical test. Therefore, a good deal more research is needed to determine the value of marginal changes in the number of deer and elk harvested. It is thought that the estimation of net economic value in this study for the Northeast and Central regions of Oregon will be useful from the viewpoint of big game management and resource allocation in Oregon. / Graduation date: 1981

The objective of this study is to analyze empirically the demand structure for the following important farm production inputs in Oregon: hired labor, chemical fertilizer, farm machinery, repairs and operating costs of motor vehicles and other machinery designated as "machinery supplies," purchased feed and miscellaneous inputs. Twenty-year data (1950-69 except 1951-70 for hired labor) were analyzed with the aid of simple equation least-squares multiple regression techniques for all inputs. In addition, a simultaneous-equation model is applied to hired labor data. The demand for each input is predicted through 1975. This study indicates that hired farm labor employment depends heavily upon wage rates. Contrary to earlier national and regional studies, the short-run demand for hired farm labor in Oregon during 1951-70 was found to be elastic, -1.2 to -1.5 and -1.5 to -2.6 in the single-equation and the simultaneous-equation demand models respectively. This implies that if farm wage rates rise, the number of workers employed declines in greater proportion than the wage rate rise. Conversely, if wage rates fall the number of workers employed will increase disproportionately. The number of hired workers employed on Oregon farms declined by 40.6 percent (37 thousand to 22 thousand) between 1950 and 1970. A further 25 percent decline is projected by 1975. The demand for fertilizer and purchased feed are comparable in many ways. The demand for each is inelastic (-0.45 and -0.58) in the short-run, and moderately elastic (-1.05 to -1.35) in the long-run. The adjustment coefficient, which indicates the percent of the required adjustment that can be made in one year in feed or fertilizer purchases, in both cases are about the same--around 0.50. However, profitability of livestock enterprises as an independent variable (RL subscript [t]) is statistically significant in the demand equation for purchased feed, but profitability of farming as a variable (R subscript [t]) is not significant in the fertilizer models. Furthermore, fertilizer purchases continued to increase in spite of static or slightly decreasing crop prices. Although the input price variable is statistically significant in the demand models for both fertilizer and purchased feed, decreasing fertilizer prices have probably contributed heavily to the increase in the use of fertilizers in Oregon. If the past declining trend in the "real" price of fertilizer continues and other relationships do not change materially, there will be a 43 percent (381.8 thousand tons to 547.5 thousand tons) greater consumption of fertilizer in Oregon over the next six years. Based on past experience, such an increase is undoubtedly within the capability of the fertilizer industry to meet the requirement. The expenditure for purchased feed is projected to be 9 percent greater in 1975 than in 1969 in terms of constant 1957-59 dollars. The increase becomes 25 percent when expressed in terms of what feed prices are expected to be in 1975 dollars. Unavailability of data on annual capital outlay for the purchase of machinery and equipment by Oregon farmers is a serious problem in the estimation of the demand structure for farm machinery. However, annual inventories of machinery and equipment on Oregon farms is used as a substitute variable. The analysis indicates the demand for machinery and equipment inventories to be inelastic. The demand for "machinery supplies", a variable with considerable complementarity with machinery and equipment inventory, was also found to be inelastic. A 10 percent increase in the price of farm machinery or price of "machinery supplies" is associated with a 4.5 percent decrease in the total machinery and equipment inventory, and a 6.3 percent decrease in "machinery supplies" purchased. The estimated elasticities may be biased due to high multi-collinearity problems in their demand models. However, the prediction ability of these models is undoubtedly good. It is expected that there will be a $32 million increase (1957-59 dollars) in the value of machinery inventories on Oregon farms by 1975 over the 1969 level. The increase is $104 million in 1975 dollars. The expenditure for repairs and operating costs of motor vehicles and other machinery (machinery supplies) are expected to be fairly constant during this period in terms of 1957-59 dollars. This peculiarity of increasing inventory of machinery and equipment in 1957-59 dollars and a constant expenditure for "machinery supplies" is judged to be due to the fact that the machinery inventory effect and the price effect seem to cancel out and maintain the constant expenditure for "machinery supplies." Prices of "machinery supplies" have tended to decline over the period of the study. The projection of expenditure for "machinery supplies" in terms of current dollars indicates a 12 percent increase by 1975 which is wholly accounted for by expected inflationary tendencies in the economy. In contrast to chemical fertilizer, purchased feeds, machinery and equipment inventories and "machinery supplies," miscellaneous inputs (interest, electricity, veterinary supplies and services, etc.) has a very high elastic demand. Due to the evidence of there being two distinct trends in expenditures for miscellaneous inputs, the data were analyzed on the basis of the two periods. The dummy variable approach developed by Damodar Gujarati fails to reject the null hypothesis of the discontinuity in the demand curve for miscellaneous inputs during the 1950-69 period at the 5 percent test level. The mean price elasticity of demand was found to be -1.22 for the period 1950-57 and -4.28 for the period 1958-69. Such a high elasticity is probably due to a strong complementarity between miscellaneous inputs and the increasing total agricultural plant size, and the substitution effect due to gradually falling relative prices of miscellaneous inputs. A 23 percent increase (1957-59 dollars) in expenditure for miscellaneous inputs is projected by 1975 compared to 1969. The increase in terms of 1975 dollars amounts to 46 percent: from $72.8 million to $106.4 million. It is anticipated that the information regarding the demand structure for farm production input factors discussed in this study will be useful to people involved in farm labor policy-making, and decision making in farm supply business firms, credit agencies and farming businesses in planning for the extension of their volume of operations in the next few years. The future demand for these farm inputs, among other factors, will largely depend on the trend of their "real" or relative prices. The projected amount of expenditures for these inputs in current dollars will be modified by any changes in the extent of inflationary tendencies in the economy. / Graduation date: 1972

The size of elk herds in Eastern Oregon has become a controversial issue. Trade-offs exist between the numbers of elk and domestic livestock on a given area of land, and also between elk and commercial timber harvesting policies. Disputes arise from differing views as to proper use of the natural resource base, specifically, public forested and grazing lands. Economic comparisons between elk and alternative uses of the land are complicated by the non-market nature of the elk resource, as this necessitates using a method to value the resource which may not be familiar to many decision makers. The objectives of this thesis were: (1) to analyze the demand for antlerless elk tags in eastern Oregon and to use the analysis to examine alternative pricing policies for allocating these antlerless tags, (2) to evaluate alternative elk management strategies from an economic perspective, and (3) to optimize societal benefits from the land base over time. Objective (1) was met by using the travel cost method. Results indicate that state hunting revenues would rise substantially if tag prices were increased so as to equilibrate quantities demanded and supplied. Objective (2) was met by using a computer simulation model to ascertain the impacts of harvesting and management policies upon the herd's stability and productivity. The results, placing emphasis on the antlerless animals, indicate that a slight reduction in current herd levels is economically desirable. This result is caused in part by the decreasing returns to scale from the elk herd as measured by total harvest per 1000 summer adult elk. Limitations of these conclusions with respect to bull elk demand are documented. Finally, objective (3) is met by formulating the dynamic relationships between elk, domestic livestock, and timber as a system of dynamic Lagrangian multipliers. This allows optimal inter-temporal allocation of resources by discounting future returns from these resources and equating marginal benefits of present and future use. The decision rules are examined, and economic implications of the multipliers are discussed. Although a theoretical model, some data is discussed, as are directions for future research. / Graduation date: 1983

Anadromous fish populations in the Pacific Northwest have undergone substantial change throughout the past century. Historical periods of over-harvest and the construction of numerous dams throughout the region have contributed to declines in the runs of naturally spawning stocks. Management efforts to rebuild fish populations have focused on the restriction of harvest activities and the release of hatchery-reared salmon. A microcomputer simulation model is developed to estimate the economic impacts of management alternatives. In it, fish are passed throughout a network of nodes, according to parameters governing mortality and harvest. These parameters, and the node structure itself, are provided to the model by a user-specified input file. As a result, the model affords flexibility in meeting the modeling needs of differing salmonid stocks. The model's economic assessment capabilities are demonstrated through a case study of Rogue River spring chinook. Results of this exercise include estimates for the impacts of dam construction, hatchery releases, and changes in ocean and river harvest policies on the social value derived from harvest activities. The research also examines the redistribution of economic benefits associated with these policies. The impact of a recently constructed dam upon spring chinook fishermen is estimated at a loss of more than $10,600,000 over thirty years, given no hatchery supplementation. Current hatchery programs have mitigated the loss to fishermen, but whether they also offset their operating costs depends upon the particular harvest values employed. The value of providing an additional wild spawner to the basin is estimated to be roughly $300. Examination of various harvest alternatives indicates that restrictions placed on the commercial ocean fishery would be more successful in increasing the present value of harvests than would similar restrictions in the sport fishery. An important factor in this outcome is the higher value attributed to sport catch by currently accepted methods of valuation. Suggestions are made for improvements to the simulation model and the availability of information for use with it. Foremost among these is the need for improved specification of the marginal social value derived from salmon harvested in commercial and recreational fisheries. / Graduation date: 1987

The ocean fishery is an example of a common property resource industry. Behavior of commercial fishermen is determined by a complex set of economic, environmental and social factors. All of these factors contribute to the individual fisherman's success. Fishermen learn to cope with the variability inherent to their occupation. Two strategies are observed in fishing behavior: The specialist who operates exclusively in one fishery and the generalist who readily switches fisheries according to market, social or management considerations. Traditional fishery models formulated to predict the behavior of fishermen have focused on the specialist. Smith and McKelvey (1986) and McKelvey (1983, 1987) have provided analyses to suggest these two fishing strategies may co-exist in a fluctuating environment. The purpose of this study is to analyze the Oregon trawl fisheries for the presence of diversification in strategy selection. To gather the data necessary for testing the hypotheses, interviews were conducted in the trawl fisheries of Oregon, June through December 1985. Three groups of fishermen are identified according to strategy selection. Nominal effort differences and capital-to-income ratios are examined for each strategy type. Additional analysis is done to look at the components of income determination through regression analysis. Discriminant analysis is used to examine the fishermen's attitudes toward switching, risk and management concerns. Among the findings of this research is that specialists and generalists do exist but they cannot adequately characterized by exclusively economic measures. Attitudes shown on the part of the fishermen indicate they feel that management is a significant factor contributing to income variability and strategy selection. / Graduation date: 1988

The sulfur supply situation in the international market is expected to change considerably in the future. Previously, sulfur supply came from mineral deposits and depended on the availability of reserves and conditions in the industry. These mineable deposits have deteriorated as production costs increased, as result of exploiting lower-quality reserves, increases in energy consumption, and environment costs. In addition, less expensive, non-discretionary, abatement sulfur has emerged as a result of the enforcement of public environmental regulations, product market specifications, and transportation technologies which require the removal of sulfur from sulfur-bearing products. These developments are seen as molding the conditions in the international sulfur market of the future. The market is expected to be characterized by: (1) a potential for an abundant supply of low-cost market-insensitive sulfur; (2) the declining role of those resources which have been supplying relatively high-cost discretionary sulfur; and (3) a broader supply base in terms of both source type and geographical distribution. This study provides a future perspective of the non-communist international sulfur market in view of the emerging non-discretionary sulfur sources and the declining role of conventional sulfur sources. The international sulfur market is divided into ten regional markets, defined primarily by geographic location, production and consumption concentration. Supply is divided into: non-discretionary and discretionary sulfur. Supply and demand are projected primarily econometrically, and surplus or deficit regions are identified. Two types of projection methods are used: regression based and non-regression based. The choice of the method used for a region is based on: (1) the availability of historical data, and (2) how closely the past and future economics of a region are expected to be related. The conclusions of this study are: (1) on world basis, sulfur is expected to be in continued excess; (2) virtually all sulfur is expected to come from non-discretionary sources; (3) some regions are expected to have a supply deficit, most will have supply surpluses; (4) the co-existence of deficit and surplus regions will result in inter-regional or international trade. However, the resulting trade pattern will be quite different from the present pattern; (5) the basis for price determination and the relative levels are expected to change; and (6) discretionary sulfur will be permanently forced out of the market.

Increasing irrigation water cost due to higher pump energy price and falling groundwater tables is a critical problem of the agricultural sector in Sulphur Springs Valley of Southeastern Arizona which is characterized as an arid region with low annual precipitation and high temperatures. Water saving irrigation techniques, side roll and center pivot sprinkler systems, are analyzed as alternatives of gravity irrigation. Natural gas, electricity, and diesel fuel are commonly available energy sources for pumping groundwater in the area. Four representative farm size groups, five crops, and five irrigation techniques are adopted for representative farm mixed integer programming models. The problem is treated as a complete switch from one energy source to another and twelve separate sets of computer data are developed for four farm sizes and three energy sources. Sensitivity analyses based on cotton lint price and natural gas cost variations are analyzed. The results are aggregated to determine the regional level impacts of energy source changes, cotton lint price declines, and natural gas price increases. The major conclusion of these analyses is that upland cotton is a dominant crop with wheat using residual land and water. July water and available land restrict the crop production. Increasing energy costs reduce the total annual water consumption through adopting the water saving sprinkler systems and/or crops. Under the initial conditions (cotton lint price is at $58.11/cwt and natural gas price is at $.1167 per therm) the farmers generate gross returns that cover their annual total cost. Decreasing price of cotton decreases the return above total cost and annual water consumption. Wheat production changes as a complement of upland cotton, but corn production varies as substitute because of irrigation water and land constraints and relative crop profitability.

This item was digitized as part of the Million Books Project led by Carnegie Mellon University and supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF). Cornell University coordinated the participation of land-grant and agricultural libraries in providing historical agricultural information for the digitization project; the University of Arizona Libraries, the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and the Office of Arid Lands Studies collaborated in the selection and provision of material for the digitization project.

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