Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Management Sciences: Public Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2017. / The costs of bidding to host mega sporting events such as the Olympics and FIFA World cups are huge. The demand for massive infrastructure to deliver such games is high irrespective of slow economic growth and constrained fiscal budgets. Very few governments are able to properly assess the actual economic value of the investments in infrastructure. The existing infrastructure appraisal and prioritisation methodologies usually take a very narrow view of value. There is scholarly evidence that there is little effort directed towards studies that investigate intangible benefits associated with infrastructural investment in stadia. Much research effort has been invested in the development of methods and models to measure the economic impacts of mega events. While the focus has been, on balance, on financial benefits of hosting mega events, the independent empirical research has found no evidence of economic benefits associated with mega sport events. This study then determined, first the conceptual definition, and the nature of novelty value derived from infrastructural investment. Secondly, an index was constructed to assess the novelty value of infrastructural investment on stadia. The index creation process commenced with the identification of items that define the concept from literature. This was followed by interviews of key informants who are experts and insightful on world cup stadia infrastructural investment. The themes from literature as well as insights from key informants shaped the survey instrument for the second phase of the study. A sample (n =399) was drawn from the study population which is made up of patrons of Moses Mabhida stadium. Factor analysis, a multivariate analytical tool was used to develop a reliable novelty value index (V-ndex). The constructed index has three valid and reliable constructs; spectator experience, novelty continuance and modernity. These three construct define the nonfinancial value, which this study describes as novelty value derived from infrastructural investment. It is therefore recommended that when policy makers seek to assess the value of infrastructural investment on sporting facilities, they incorporate non financial value to the financial value added by investment. / M

Social media has become one of the defining features of the technological advances known as Web 2.0. As social media has increased in popularity, so businesses are expected to participate. Social media platforms enable businesses to widely broadcast a message as well as interact directly with individual customers. Customers are also able to interact directly with one another and share information and reviews about products and services offered. This suits the tourism industry particularly well. Internationally, research has shown that individuals use social media and other online tools to research potential holiday destinations. In addition social media is used during travel to share snapshots and commentary as well as after travel, through reviews and recommendations on platforms such as TripAdvisor. However, few studies have investigated how tourism destinations use social media to attract new clients and retain existing clients. Very little research has been done on tourism and social media in South Africa despite the importance of this industry to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study focused on four-star establishments within the photographic wildlife tourism industry in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. An initial survey of social media participation was carried out within the framework set out by Chan and Guillet (2011); this was then followed up with interviews with selected managers. Results showed that, in general, Private Game Reserves (PGRs) had embraced social media as a communication and marketing platform; despite concerns raised about the lack of control over content as well as poor understanding of the influence social media might have on the bottom line. TripAdvisor, Facebook and Twitter were the most commonly used platforms due to management familiarity with the platform and their ease of use. Few lodges utilised blogs or content sites such as YouTube and management cited time commitments associated with this type of platform as a reason for non-participation. However, although most PGRs or lodges had a profile on social media, this did not always mean active participation. Frequently, lodges began updating but gradually stopped after a few months. It was noted however that only one of the lodges interviewed retained an individual whose sole responsibility was social media; generally lodges did not feel that a dedicated person was necessary. This may result in a lack of time available on the part of the individual responsible or simply be a case of not understanding the platform or how to use it effectively. However, none of the PGRs with poor social media participation responded to interview requests and therefore it was not possible to determine the reasons for their poor participation. Among those lodges that actively participated, most succeed in retaining fans and followers through consistent posting of relevant and interesting content as well as customised responses that encouraged fans or followers’ interaction. However, there did not appear to be any evidence of using social media to learn about fans and followers in order to better customise the lodge offerings. This may not be necessary in this type of industry as PGRs sell a specific product and have a limited ability to customise offerings. In addition, there may be other sources of market information which lodges prefer to use. Special offers, competitions and promotions had limited success on social media. Generally, lodges used social media to promote links to a dedicated competition or promotions page. In conclusion, the managers interviewed felt strongly that social media had made a measureable impact on the tourism industry and was a channel that was here to stay. Further research around the best practice and most effective use will enable PGRs to develop and maintain effective strategies for social media participation.

This study was undertaken to achieve three major objectives: 1. to estimate an econometric structure-profitability model for Canadian food, beverages and tobacco processing industries; 2. to estimate a structure-price model of the sector to compare with the profit model; and 3. to make inferences about the performance of the sector, with reference to market power and industry efficiency. The above objectives were accomplished by comparing empirical regression results of the two models by using the following approach. First, the statistical significance of the estimated coefficients was used to determine which factors should be considered of importance in explaining performance. Secondly, the signs on the estimated coefficients were used to determine the direction of the influence of market structure on performance. Lastly, a comparison of the size and statistical significance of the difference in the respective coefficients was used to determine which of the two performance indexes (profitability and prices) is most affected by market structure. From the study four broad conclusions were arrived at. Seller concentration and advertising do have an increasing effect on profitability, but this influence does not derive from market power (price increases). Instead, increases in these factors appear to promote price competition. However, tariff protection has an increasing effect on both profitability and prices. Furthermore, the net effect of tariffs is significantly larger on prices than on profitability. Industry growth and market isolation factors have an increasing effect on profitabilty. But they have no significant influence on relative prices. Exports have a decreasing effect on profitability and prices. Increases in input prices may lead to increases in ouput prices. Two broad implications can be drawn from the above results. First, price competition and industry efficiency can be enhanced by (either condoning or encouraging) high market shares, advertising, exports and industry growth. Secondly, although tariffs can increase industry profitability, they may also lead to relatively larger increases in domestic output prices. Similarly, changes in input prices may lead to increases in output prices. Therefore, high tariffs and input prices may serve as barriers to competition, and allow inefficiency to persist in an industry. / Land and Food Systems, Faculty of / Graduate

Mobile devices and online services allow capturing an unprecedented amount of information about human behavior. In this dissertation, I use these new types of data to understand how the built environment affects social life and businesses in cities. In Chapter 1, I provide the first causal evidence that the provision of urban parks promotes opportunities for racially and ethnically diverse encounters. Utilizing a novel dataset featuring individual GPS tracking data for more than 60 thousand Twitter users in the New York metro area, I introduce a measure of racial diversity that captures one's level of exposure to diverse others in places visited daily. My empirical strategy relies on using the variation in the timing of park construction works across the city (that temporarily limit the capacity of said parks) to identify the impact of the effectively accessible parkland area on the individual exposure to racial diversity. My results show that for White and Black/African American residents additional 10 acres of parks within a 5 km radius from home increase individual chances of encounters with the members of other groups by 1 p.p. The effect is sizable: for reference, transitioning from the current state to the random mixing scenario would require a 9 p.p increase in diversity for an average Black or African American individual and a 3.5 p.p increase for an average White person. I also provide evidence to suggest that park accessibility affects the diversity of White and Black residents differently: for parks located closer to home, the effect appears to be more pronounced for Whites than Blacks. Chapter 2, written jointly with Dmitry Sedov, investigates the role of sports facilities in generating consumption spillovers for the local businesses. The construction of sports facilities, which can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, is often subsidized by public sources. In many cases, subsidies are allocated on the premise that sports venues benefit the local economy by bringing new customers to nearby businesses. We pin down the size and the spatial distribution of such spillovers using daily foot traffic data from mobile phones covering major sports league facilities and the surrounding commercial establishments. By employing the fixed effects and the IV estimation strategies, we show that the spillover benefits are heterogeneous across sports and business sectors. We find that 100 baseball stadium visits generate roughly 29 visits to nearby food & accommodation businesses and about 6 visits to local retail establishments. While the estimates for football stadiums are comparable, basketball & hockey arenas do not appear to generate significant spillovers for the surrounding businesses. Using our spillover estimates, we also compute an upper bound on the additional local spending induced by each sample arena. The median value of the additional spending turns out to be substantially smaller than the corresponding median subsidy to sports facilities in our sample. In Chapter 3, I examine the contribution of parks to social ties between neighborhoods in New York City. Although the role of public spaces in facilitating social interactions in cities has been widely discussed by social scientists and urban design scholars, data sets from online social networks present unexplored opportunities to quantify this link on a larger scale. I use data on friendship links between Facebook users across New York City zip codes to show that two neighborhoods with a higher density of green spaces between them are more likely to have stronger social ties. In particular, when controlling for demographic differences and zip-code level fixed effects, I find that a 1 p.p. increase in the percentage of land allocated to parks between two given zip codes is associated with a 1.2% higher chance of online social connection between their residents. Comparing the effects of park density for different types of parks, I further document that the presence of community parks, flagship parks, and playgrounds are all significant predictors of higher social connectedness between zip codes. Notably, the largest estimated effect is for playgrounds, indicating a 33% higher probability of connection per 1 p.p. increase in density.

The airline industry has grown rapidly over the past few decades, recording a ten-fold rise in passenger numbers and a fourteen-fold increase in cargo volumes. This growth has created overwhelming value to airline passengers, employees, suppliers and the broader economy. Unfortunately, this industry has been affected by terrorism attacks, wars, revolutions, pandemic fears, earthquakes, volcanoes, failing economies and skyrocketing fuel prices all of which have negatively impacted on profitability and resulted in intense competition. Consequently, airlines have spent the last decade in survival mode having to adapt to harsh changes. Air Zimbabwe, a state-run organisation which operates in this highly regulated and turbulent industry, is faced with numerous micro and macro environmental challenges and has been purposively selected for this study. According to company statistics, the airline’s annual passenger uplifts have declined from a peak of over 1 million in the 1990s to less than 200 000 in 2011, with revenue generation declining in correlation. Whilst Air Zimbabwe has experienced depressed demand for its services, competitor airlines are recording brisk business. The aim of this study was to investigate how a struggling organisation, which operates in a turbulent environment, can improve its competitiveness and profitability by better understanding the impact of industry role players and adapting organisational strategies to industry variations. This study examined, from the point of view of the industry players themselves, the extent to which customers, suppliers, competitors, regulatory authorities, substitute products and new entrants have impacted on the competitiveness and profitability of the airline. Major findings reveal that an organisation cannot operate in isolation and be competitive or profitable, but constantly needs to analyse the industry environment in which it operates in and to amicably interact with other industry role players. The research outlines the need for competition in certain areas and cooperation in others. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

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No description available.

This dissertation investigates the financial health of municipalities in the United States, their margins of response to fiscal shocks, and their exposure and response to climate risk stemming from hurricanes. In Chapter 1, we construct a novel data set on the fiscal position of municipalities in the United States and document a secular decline in their financial health. Our data combines financial data from the Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports (ACFRs) of municipalities along with Census data of their revenue and expenditure cash flows. We find that a large share of municipalities operate with a negative net position---akin to a negative book equity position in the corporate context. We find that most of the decline originates from the accumulation of legacy obligations, i.e., pensions and other post-employment benefits (OPEBs); this is recognized by municipal bond markets through higher credit spreads. While accounting values from the ACFRs are informative, they are based on book valuations which potentially convey limited information about the economic value of assets and liabilities. Thus, we turn to the market valuation of local governments' equity by estimating an SDF that matches the valuation of a wide range of assets in the economy to prices future tax and expenditure claims. Using market prices for tax and expenditure claims, and market valuations of liability positions we find that the market values of equity are highly correlated with the book values. The negative equity position---in terms of book and market values---for some local governments suggests the presence of implicit insurance by the state and federal governments. The deteriorating fiscal position of municipalities across the United States raises questions about fiscal adjustment mechanisms municipalities have at their disposal and the general equilibrium effects of any adjustment taken. In Chapter 2, we utilize quasi-experimental variation in the year of property tax assessments in the state of Connecticut to provide causal evidence of the fiscal adjustment following a large decline in property values after the Great Financial Crisis. We find that local governments adjust tax rates to maintain stable tax revenues; there is no change in public employment levels and limited adjustments of public services. Our micro data on people's location further allows us to causally estimate the migration elasticity to a change in property tax rates. We find evidence of inter-state migration in response to an increase in property tax rates; and no statistically significant response of intra-state migration. Detailed property and location choice data reveal the elasticity of migration with regard to the property tax bill. An increase in the property tax bill by ten percent leads to an average increase in the migration propensity by about 1.5%. Finally, in Chapter 3, I investigate the investment component of local economic growth in municipalities after hurricanes. Using hand collected and web-scraped statutory property tax rate data in the U.S., I find that municipalities respond to hurricane impact by raising tax rates. I find the hike in tax rates is persistent for 3-4 years after hurricane impact. The response is four times larger for major hurricanes compared to minor hurricanes. However, the increase in tax rates is not expected to be large enough to cause significant out-migration after the average hurricane. I supplement these findings with a novel data set of firm facility-level hurricane impact. I find that firms initially decrease investment in the quarter following hurricane impact and increase it in the final quarters of the second year after impact. Taken together, this chapter presents a novel set of stylized facts on government and firm mitigation investment response to hurricane disasters. In particular, the precarious fiscal health of municipalities coupled with increasing costs of mitigating and managing climate risk poses serious questions about optimal policy in assisting local governments vulnerable to climate change.

Decisions about marriage and childbearing, and the subsequent interactions between members of a family unit can have important individual and societal impacts on income, well-being, and economic mobility. This is especially true for women in developing countries, given limited female formal labor force participation, the economic significance of marriage markets, and the reliance on kin networks in the absence of formal safety nets. This dissertation consists of three essays that analyze how individuals form families, how those family members interact, and the subsequent impacts on the well-being of the family unit. The first chapter studies the effects of a rapid university expansion on access to education and family formation for women. The second chapter examines the long-term effects of a primary schooling expansion program on the prevalence of child marriage. The final chapter examines the long-term consequences of early life exposure to armed conflict on family formation. In the first essay, I analyze the impact of increased access to higher education on family formation outcomes for women in developing countries. Using a difference-in-differences design that accounts for the staggered nature of university openings, and a combination of household surveys and administrative data, I examine the impact of women’s exposure to a rapid university expansion in Nigeria in the 2000s on three key aspects of the family formation process - the likelihood and timing of first marriage and birth, their spouses’ characteristics, and the quantity and “quality” of any children produced in the marriage. I find that university openings improved years of schooling and educational attainment among school-aged women, and delayed the timing of the first marriage and childbirth of women. Women also had fewer births, and their children were more likely to have better development outcomes. I show suggestive evidence that these outcomes are driven by increased autonomy - women delay sexual activity and are more likely to work, use contraception and have the final say over important decisions. My second essay analyzes the impact of a 1976 universal primary education reform that provided free primary education to all school-aged children in Nigeria on the prevalence of child marriage. Using data from household surveys, I implement a difference-in-difference empirical strategy that exploits variation in exposure to the reform across birth cohorts and localities. I find that women exposed to the reforms acquired more schooling and the probability that women marry before the age of 15 reduces. However, there are no significant effects of exposure to the policy on the overall age of marriage, or the likelihood of marriage before the age of 18 on average. I present evidence on other marriage outcomes - men’s education increases, as does the spousal education gap. Furthermore, women desire and have fewer children, and are also more likely to be engaged in paid work. However, I find no effects on the spousal age gap or the husband’s age. My third and final essay explores the long-term effects of exposure to violent conflict onfamily formation in developing countries. Using a difference-in-differences empirical design that exploits variation in the intensity of war exposure by ethnicity and age, I analyze the long-term impacts of the 1967-1970 Biafran War on the family formation outcomes of men and women who were exposed to the war during their pre-adolescent years. I find that conflict induces men to delay first marriage and first birth, but there are no significant impacts on the timing of these activities for women. Both men and women who are exposed to the war have fewer children, and women also desire fewer children overall. Additionally, women who were exposed to the war have a smaller age difference from their husbands and are less likely to be married to men who have other wives. They are also less likely to experience domestic violence, on average. War exposure has no effect on the education difference between spouses, but women’s educational attainment increases, on average, while that of men decreases. Finally, I find no effects of war exposure on women’s relational empowerment, in terms of their attitudes to domestic violence and intra-household decision-making, but they are less likely to be engaged in paid work. This study contributes new evidence on the long-term impact of armed conflict on family formation in sub-Saharan Africa and shows how these impacts vary by gender and the age and duration of war exposure.

Since the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act, the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act and the National Forest Management Act, the Forest Service has been required to give individuals and organizations access to the decision-making process. However, the Forest Service has been confronted with a greater than anticipated level of dissatisfaction with the Land Management Plans. Because the appeals of the plans are an expense to the Forest Service, both in monetary terms and the frustration which has been generated, the relationship between the participation process and the number of appeals has. come under question. This study proposes that, because public participation and the resolution of appeals are expenses to the Forest Service, the relationship between the two should be analyzed in a cost-benefit analysis framework. However, before an optimal level of public participation can be determined, the relationship between public participation and conflict must be analyzed. Through survey and econometric techniques, the public participation process which occurred during round one of planning and the significance of a number of variables to the probability for conflict were observed. The study described the public participation process which occurred on the National Forests. The results suggest a positive relationship between public participation and the number of existing appeals. Further research is needed, however, to determine the number of appeals which were either avoided or generated due to the public participation process. / Master of Science