This thesis presents three core chapters examining different aspects of the relationship between natural resources and economic development. While addressing different questions they share several features in common: a concern with causal inference; overcoming the challenges of endogeneity between resource abundance and other characteristics of developing countries; and the use of new and novel datasets with spatially identified units of analysis. The work contributes to a rich and growing empirical literature seeking to deepen our understanding of the underlying mechanisms affecting the fortunes of resource-abundant countries. In the introductory chapter I discuss the extensive literature on this topic and in particular focus on the new generation of well-identified within-country studies, seeking to understand the empirical relationship between resources and economic development. Countries typically welcome the news of a resource discovery with joy and indeed, resource discoveries hold great economic potential. But what determines whether a country is resource rich or not? Is it more than just a chance finding, or good geology? In Chapter 2, entitled Institutions and the Location of Oil Exploration I present an investigation into this question. I examine the relationship between governance and choices of where to drill for oil. This work utilises a new dataset on exploration wells and looks at the distribution of drilling close to national borders. This allows me to identify estimates for the effect of differences in governance between neighbours. Two times out of three, investors choose to drill on the side of borders that are better governed, all other things being equal. This suggests that resource-wealth itself may be contingent on factors beyond geology, and indeed may be endogenous to the process of development. In Chapter 3, entitled The Local Effects of Resource Extraction, I turn my attention to the local economic consequences of industrial mining in Indonesia. I present a simple three-sector general equilibrium model to generate predictions for the local labour market, akin to the Corden-Neary Dutch disease model of the macroeconomy. I test the predicted effects in response to an exogenous resource sector shock by looking at mine opening or mine expansion events across three hundred mines. I test the predictions of the model, first by estimating the economic footprint from industrial mining; found to be an average of fifteen kilometre radius. I then examine the response of reported labour market activity from households surveyed in nearby communities. Here I find no evidence for a shift of local labour into the mining sector. I do find however a notable movement of labour from the traded sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) to the non-traded service sector, with a strong effect for foreign-owned mines versus domestic ones. Chapter 4, entitled Disentangling the Effects of Resource Extraction: Local Government and Investment Multipliers, examines the oil and gas boom in Indonesia from 1999-2009. Here I deploy a variety of identification strategies to attempt to disentangle the regional effects of the boom, measured in terms of district GDP. I estimate effects arising from transfers of revenue to local government. Using an instrumental variable approach I isolate the fiscal channel from resource projects. I find a positive and significant effect of increased local government revenues on district GDP over the boom decade. I then examine the spillovers from resource projects, isolating them from fiscal transfers. For districts neighbouring resource rich districts I find evidence for a modest positive effect arising from project investments, rather than fiscal transfers. In Chapter 5 I present concluding thoughts and discuss a future research agenda. I also summarise the burgeoning landscape of resource data available for within country and spatially identified studies and offer some thoughts on how this might evolve.

Ongoing globalisation has resulted in more liberalisation, integration, and competition among countries. An upshot of this has been higher levels of cross-border investment. Foreign direct investment (FDI), long considered an engine of growth, has led to widespread probe with its recent rapid spread. Nevertheless, while research on the contribution of FDI to host countries has concentrated heavily on the developed and developing economies, there has been a marked neglect of small, developed economies. This study proposes to focus on New Zealand, a country that falls within the latter category. The study seeks to verify econometrically the impact of FDI on the country through causality links with growth, trade, domestic investment and labour productivity. The analysis is based upon time-series data, the econometric techniques of single, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and the multiple equations approach, vector error correction method (VECM). The study found that there have been substantial gains to the New Zealand economy. A positive effect of FDI on the variables mentioned above led to an improvement of the balance of payments through an increase in exports rather than in imports. Economic growth has mainly been achieved through FDI's impact on exports and domestic private investment. The dynamic innovation techniques indicated a bi-directional causality between FDI and the variables. The long-run causality, however, runs mainly from growth and labour productivity to FDI rather than in the opposite direction. Another noticeable feature is that New Zealand's regional agreement with Australia, Closer Economic Relations, has brought the country significant gains in terms of growth and development through FDI. Both the ARDL and VECM approaches suggest that for a small, developed country qualitative impacts are greater than quantitative ones. The policy implication is that maintaining sustainable economic growth with a positive domestic investment environment is vital for attracting foreign investors. New Zealand, while continuing to encourage inward FDI, should aim to channel it into 'innovative' tradable sectors. The challenge lies in providing the right kind of policy mix for this purpose.

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that accounts for technological interdependence among regions in a Mankiw-Romer-Weil world. The reasoning behind the theoretical work is that technological ideas cannot be fully appropriated by investors and these ideas may diffuse and increase the productivity of other firms. We link the diffusion of ideas to spatial proximity and allow for ideas to flow to nearby regional economies. Through the magic of solving for the reduced form of the theoretical model and the magic of spatial autoregressive processes, the simple dependence on a small number of neighbouring regions leads to a reduced form theoretical model and an associated empirical model where changes in a single region can potentially impact all other regions. This implies that conventional regression interpretations of the parameter estimates would be wrong. The proper way to interpret the model has to rely on matrices of partial derivatives of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil variables, using scalar summary measures for reporting the estimates of the marginal impacts from the model. The summary impact measure estimates indicate that technological interdependence among European regions works through physical rather than human capital externalities.

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This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

Notable structural changes have taken place in the world sheepmeat market over the 1960-80 period. Imports into the major consuming countries of the EEC are declining as a result of changing tastes, higher import barriers and other factors. World exports have steadily increased however, and sales diversified into a number of alternative, expanding markets. Little quantitative information exists on these markets. An econometric model was constructed to analyse the changes on a global basis. The model covers production, consumption and trade in the main importing and exporting regions over a twenty one year period. These components form a dynamic, simultaneous system which solves for the world price. It allows the impact of changes in any particular market to be evaluated in terms of the effect on other markets and international prices. Simulation analysis is employed to test the effects of various shocks to the market, and to evaluate the impacts of certain policy changes, such as those recently implemented in the EEC. The changes are assessed against a Base simulation, which also provides a forecast of the market situation through the 1980's. From the conclusions various policy implications are drawn with respect to NZ's exports.