This thesis investigates the macroeconomic effects of domestic oil prices and international crude oil prices in Ghana. We investigate the ability of oil prices to influence economic growth in Ghana using annual data from 1971 to 2014. We also examine the possibility of shock spillover and volatility spillover effects from domestic and crude oil prices to the Ghana currency exchange rates and the Ghana stock market index using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2015. To conduct these investigations, this study employed various econometric techniques including; unit root testing, cointegration testing, vector autoregressive model (VAR), structural VAR (SVAR), vector error correction model (VECM), scenario-based dynamic forecasting, the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) specification, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) BEKK model. Overall, this study seeks to address two central issues; i) whether domestic and world oil prices have the same effect on economic activities and financial variables in Ghana, and ii) whether the crude oil price and the macro economy relationship in Ghana is related to the treatment of crude oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. It is important to recognize the exogeneity of crude oil prices in the context of Ghana given the relatively small size of the Ghanaian economy. The findings suggest that the international crude oil price movements have an insignificant effect on output growth in Ghana both in the short run and in the long, regardless of whether the crude oil price is treated as exogenous or endogenous. However, domestic oil prices have a significant effect on the output growth rate only in the long run. The findings also indicate that world crude oil prices have significant spillover effects on the exchange rate, and this result is unaffected by the treatment of world crude oil prices as exogenous or endogenous. However, the relationship between crude oil prices and the Ghana stock market depends on whether the crude oil price is exogenous or endogenous. In addition, domestic oil prices have significant spillover effects on the exchange rate and the stock market. Domestic oil prices are also found to have more influence on the stock market than crude oil prices do. The results of this study have some implications for the government and investors; (i) Increases in crude oil prices do not put a binding constraint on the monetary authorities to loosen monetary policy to offset its effect on output. If inflation is a priority, policy makers could focus on inflation stabilization by tightening monetary policy during oil price rises. (ii) The government?s tax policies on petroleum products should not only be focused on revenue generation, but also on ensuring that such policies do not lead to exorbitant domestic oil prices since higher taxes on petroleum products will increase domestic oil prices which can be detrimental to the economy in the long term. (iii) The government should formulate transport-related policies such as promoting mass transportation or encouraging the use of electrically powered vehicles. The government can also encourage the use of renewable energy such as solar to help reduce the country?s dependence on oil (iv) Internationally diversified portfolio investors in Ghana should use hedging strategies such as currency forwards, futures, and options to protect their investments from exchange rate risk emanating from oil price shocks.

The BRICS (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, China and South Africa) economies, as the major emerging markets, continue to influence the transformation of the global structure. Their role within the global governance and global economy is increasing day by day. This study is an analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in a panel of bilateral FOI data from thirty-two the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (DECO) countries in the BRICS countries for the period of 1992 to 2010. Applying the extended gravity model with the home country push factors and the host country pull factors, the empirical findings of this study confirms that market size, distance, common culture, trade openness, privatisation, relative labor cost, research and development (R&D), relative exchange rate, infrastructure and institutional factors are the key determinants of FDI in the BRICS countries. Furthermore, bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are significant at 10% level for FDI flows. The home country corporate tax rate and bilateral export are inconclusive. In this aspect, there are evidences to accept that the motive of FDI in the BRICS economies is principally are market seeking, natural resource seeking and partly efficiency seeking type of FDI. Employing a standard gravity model, within limited scope this study also attempts to examine the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the BRICS countries' exports. The author use a panel data of BRICS countries' bilateral exports to the top ten major destination countries for the period of 2000 to 2011 by including a dummy variable to measure the impact of the global financial crisis. The result confirms that the coefficient estimate for the crisis dummy variable is positive and statistically significant at 1% level for fixed effects (FE) model. The result specifies that during the global financial crisis periods, the BRICS countries' exports growth rate increased relative to the non-financial crisis period. Furthermore, model approves that GOP growth rate and population are an also important factor that affects the value of the BRICS countries' exports.

This study investigates the behaviour of stock prices or stock returns in an oil exporting developing country (Iran). Following an examination of the role of the Iran stock market and oil revenues in the Iranian economy in chapter 2, the extensive review of theoretical and empirical literature on stock market efficiency is provided in chapter 3. Chapter 4 empirically investigates the efficiency of Iran stock market in weak form. Empirical findings from employing conventional and nonlinear unit root tests even in presence of endogenous and exogenous structural break pOints indicate that the daily Iran stock prices index follow random walk theory and Iran stock market is efficient in weak form. In view of the distributional characteristics of stock returns, chapter 5 models the volatility dynamics of the Iran stock market. Due to existence of risk premium, in this market investors with long horizon are compensated with high returns for bearing high risk. On the other hand, the empirical analysis shows lack of asymmetric volatility in the behaviour of Iran stock return series. In view of the dominant role of oil export revenues in Iranian economy, chapter 6 examines the possible dynamic relationship between the Iran stock market and international oil market. The results from adopting symmetric and asymmetric mUltivariate GARCH models based on underlying data generating process indicate lack of return and volatility spillover between Iran stock returns and international oil prices.

Since the 1970's banks have been deploying Technology Based Self-Service Systems (TBSS) such as ATMs as a means of replacing human centred interaction with technology in the process of service creation with their customers. TBSS research on A TMs has been dominated by investigations focusing on the use of ATMs for cash withdrawals. However, in recent years, ATMs have evolved to handle new functions such as bills payment, cash deposits or funds transfer. Therefore, the generalisability of extant knowledge to these new functions remains un-answered. Furthermore, new fimctionalities have introduced the need to consider additional variables to those related to the traditional use of ATMs as means for withdrawing cash. One such variable that merits examination is risk, specifically the impact that perceptions of risk have on consumers' intention and ultimate use of ATMs. Responding to the above observations, the aim of this study is to examine drivers of intention to use new ATM functions. In order to address the above research gap, a theoretically grounded model is proposed. Specifically this study adopts the technology acceptance model (TAM) which draws from two general behavioural theories, the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and its extension, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB). Attitude, ease of use and usefulness determinants of intention to use ATMs for depositing cash found in TAM are expanded by the inclusion of risk. In addition the moderating impact of consumer traits and specific factors supported by extant research and the recommendation from expert informants are also includêd in the model. Data, obtained through a postal survey addressed to ATM customers from a Spanish bank: collaborating in the investigation resulted in 461 usable replies that were analysed using Partial Least Squares. The explanatory power and stability of the model are confirmed and the need for segmenting respondents depending on whether their age is above or below 35 year old is established. Despite there are similarities within the two segments (i.e., attitude and usefulness are found significant); there are differences that need attention. Inherent novelty seeking is found significant in the younger segment while risk is found significant in the older segment. The results make the following important theoretical contributions to the subject matter. There are confounding effects due to the lack of segmentation in previous research. Attitude and usefulness are significant for cash withdrawals and cash deposits while ease of use is significant for cash withdrawals but not cash deposits and risk is significant for cash deposits but not for cash withdrawals. The results from the present study challenges the view and results that demonstrates moderating effects. On the strength of the above managerial guidelines are proposed.

Societies in the world have been struggling to redefine ways to general prosperity, although a general interest in a more human world order is constant. At the same time, cooperatives operate as privately owned for-profit enterprises having social purpose as their primary objective. The aim of this research is to investigate the potential of achieving sustainable development in enterprises operating under the cooperative principles to bring about human development and environmental improvement. The paradigm suggests interactions among environmental performance, economic results, social benefits and the ethical cooperative principles. Information on more than 1,500 coops was gathered in the EU countries of Croatia and Slovenia, and in one non-EU country Bosnia-Herzegovina and a survey was carried out among coops that were commercially active over a 12-year period from 2002-2013. After deploying the survey via email and through structured telephone interviews, statistical analysis was completed on randomly chosen 100 coops. The results support the main research hypotheses. First, the union of environmental performance and cooperative principles (EP&CP) confirm the existence of a relationship with the economic results. Secondly, the combination of environmental performance and cooperative principles (EP&CP) also indicate a relationship with social benefits. Above all, it is concluded that better results in economic and social benefits are gained in the group having positive Environmental Performance and Cooperative Principles (positive EP&CP) compared to the group where positive only EP was observed. This generally indicates the important contribution of Cooperative Principles to Sustainable Development. Using the survey data an innovative Cooperative Sustainability Index (CSI) has been produced as composite indicator measuring the success in applying ethical elements within two dimensions: the cooperative principles dimension and the environmental. Slovenia has the highest ranking score; Croatia shows less success at the second position; Bosnia Herzegovina has the weakest results. Sustainable development conditions across the Eastern Adriatic region demonstrate an interesting diversity in the environmental sustainability results among the states, but to a certain extent there are similarities as far as social and economic conditions are concerned. Paradoxically, socialism damaged social enterprises like coops in the post-WWII period in the Eastern Adriatic. This occurred not only because the socialist governments misinterpreted cooperative principles, but above all because democratic organisations like coops in a non-democratic society challenge the ethical orthodoxy. In the last few decades, the recovery of coops has varied according to their geographical location. As demonstrated, coops mostly positively prevent contemporary environmental degradation of the world’s resources but also positively contribute to economic and social issues; this puts them in an important position to reduce the inequalities produced by contemporary authoritarian capitalism across the world. In this sense, the first Cooperative Sustainability Index will find its future application and usefulness.

Credit risk is treated as a major risk in banks and has become more important with the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent regulatory controls, mainly in the form of new changes in Basel II and the proposed Basel III requirements. The use of credit risk models grew in the 2000s due to both the use of internal models in Basel II as well as bank use for economic capital calculations. These models have a large and growing influence on how credit risks are managed, yet there is a gap in the current literature on how these models are used in practice. This research explores their use in banks to help provide academic and management insight into the actual use of credit risk models. An interpretative approach using qualitative case study was undertaken in three banks using face-to-face interviews with the key credit risk managers that worked in the methodology, decision making, monitoring, control and reporting areas. While interviews were the main source of data for the research, it was supported by observation and a review of documentation that related to the use of credit risk models in the bank. The research findings show the merits in examining the social, organisational and cultural constructions as well as the role of individuals in this process. This evidences the usefulness of interpretive research, which thrives on diversity of meanings as opposed to comparing just the technical aspects of the models as found in more traditional studies. This research provides a contribution to the academic understanding of the use of credit risk models not found in any of the studies to date. This includes new insights into the use of qualitative information, the use of expert judgement (including an element of gut feel), how model complexity can detract from model use and the importance of aligning models to the risk appetite of the bank. These findings are significant both from an academic and practitioner aspect as they open up commonly-hidden processes on how these models are used in practice.

In this paper we investigate the economic, political, institutional, and societal factors that encourage entrepreneurial activity. We do so by applying Bayesian Model Averaging, which controls for model uncertainty, to a panel data set for 33 countries. Our results indicate that the general state of macroeconomic activity, the availability of financing, the level of human capital, fiscal policies implemented and the type of economic system are the main determinants of the level of entrepreneurship. We also document a non-linear, U-shaped relation between distortionary taxation and entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurial Activity, Total Early-Stage Activity (TEA), Global Entrepreneurial Monitor (GEM), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), Panel Estimation. JEL Classification: B30, B53, C11, C23, J20, M13, O10, O40

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1999. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-115).

This thesis consists of three papers that make independendet contributions to the field of financial economics. As such, the papers, Chapter 2, Chapter 3, and Chapter 4, can be read independently of each other. In Chapter 2, we construct a simple measure of the aggregate illiquidity of hedge fund portfolios, and show that it has strong in- and out-of-sample forecasting power for 72 portfolios of international equities, U.S. corporate bonds, and currencies, over the 1994 to 2011 period. The forecasting ability of hedge fund illiquidity for asset returns is, in most cases, greater than, and provides independent information relative to, well-known predictive variables for each of these asset classes. We construct a simple equilibrium model to rationalise our findings and empirically verify auxiliary predictions of the model. In Chapter 3, I analyse the risk-shifting of hedge funds. Since the information on hedge fund holdings is very restricted, researchers have used the variance of returns as a proxy for risk. I propose a new method for measuring the time-varying variance. I use this method to investigate whether equity long-short hedge funds engage in risk-shifting driven by their past performance relative to their peers. I find that hedge funds which have strongly underperformed or outperformed their peers in recent months increase their exposure to the core strategy, i.e. the equity long-short strategy, and to non-core strategies. The risk shifting is mitigated for hedge funds with long redemption periods. Chapter 4 contributes to the equity premium prediction literature. I improve the forecast performance of typical single variable predictive regressions used in the equity premium prediction literature through Bayesian priors derived from consumption-based asset pricing models. To implement these model-based priors, I develop a Bayesian procedure which is rooted in the macroeconometrics literature. I find that the model-based priors can increase the explanatory power, measured by the out-of-sample R², of the single variable predictive regressions by several percentage points.

There are four parts to this thesis: the first chapter analyses the structure of leisure in couples with particular emphasis on joint leisure. We take a structural approach and model the household as a two-stage decision making unit. The findings suggest that couples see joint leisure as a distinct good from private leisure. Specifically when a household decides to have more leisure, almost 40 percent of this increase is allocated to joint leisure as opposed to only 8 to 15 percent allocated to male private leisure. Furthermore, couples prefer to spend leisure together (synchronisation) relative to spending time independently, giving joint leisure the largest weight in the utility function. The findings further suggest that demographics can play a large role in determining the patterns of spousal leisure, with ethnicity and job characteristics being important factors. Finally, when analysing weekend time use patterns, there is evidence to suggest that Saturdays should be distinguished from Sundays as approximately 41 percent more joint leisure is observed on Sundays. The second chapter of the thesis begins our examination of the UK income taxation reform in 1990. The UK went from a system of joint taxation to independent taxation of couples and this reform may have had important implications for households. Across countries, there is a large variation in the income tax treatment of couples. Over the last three decades, many countries have undergone reforms in their tax systems, some have moved from joint to independent taxation, some from independent to joint, while others have begun the practice of allowing couples to choose the system they prefer. This chapter aims to give an overview of the tax treatment of couples and outlines the differences across countries, with particular emphasis on the tax reform in the UK. The third chapter investigates the UK income taxation reform in 1990 and examines how the change from a system of joint to independent taxation of couples has shifted women's relative earning potentials in the household, and how this in turn has led to changes in intra-household assignable clothing expenditures. I apply my method to a sample of UK couples with children and the findings of this chapter show that an exogenous increase in women's income relative to their spouse significantly and substantially increases female clothing expenditure and decreases male clothing expenditure ceteris paribus. However an increase in relative female earnings does not necessarily mean that children will do better relatively. The final outcome may depend on the type of transfer in question. In addition, there is evidence that the final allocations of expenditures on each partner and children may depend significantly on distribution factors such as spousal relative incomes, age gap and educational gap, despite the fact that these variables do not impact on preferences nor on budgets directly. This provides further evidence against the unitary framework in favour of the collective approach and the sharing rule interpretation of how households make decisions in practice. The final chapter of this thesis examines the effects of the tax reform in 1990 with particular emphasis on female labour supply. A method of clarifying the concept of a spouse's individual net income under a joint tax regime is proposed and following the methodology of Blundell et al (2007), the labour supply elasticities for both male and female are estimated. The analysis is extended further to include children in the model and the results show that both the number of children and their age are highly significant for women's labour supply and to a smaller extent also for men. Testing the income pooling hypothesis, the unitary model is not rejected. However, the results strongly reject the hypothesis that distribution factors have no effect on labour supply. The results also suggest that for the group of women affected, the reform generated two opposing effects on their labour supply: a positive effect from an increase in net wage and a negative effect from an increase in bargaining power. On balance, we find that a typical female decreased her labour supply by approximately 2.6 hours per week, yet she still experienced a 22 percent increase in her net income.