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The role of monetary policy on the cyclical behavior of the labor share and capacity utilization in the US economy is studied empirically. Previous estimation results remain robust; the inclusion of the rate of interest does not alter the underlying specification of the distributive demand regime. Next, the role of monetary policy on net borrowing flows for four institutional sectors are analyzed. Interest rate effects appear most important for households. Based on this finding, implications for countercyclical stabilization policy are spelled out. (author's abstract)

O assunto a ser tratado neste trabalho é a relação entre o crescimento econômico e a restrição externa. O objetivo do trabalho é construir um modelo macroeconômico de simulação que sirva de instrumento de análise, ainda que modesto, da relação entre os componentes de Demanda Agregada (DA) e as variáveis do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) da economia brasileira no período 1947-2006. O modelo baseia-se no Princípio da Demanda Efetiva (PDE) formalizado inicialmente por Keynes e Kalecki, através do qual Thirlwall (1979) derivou um resultado geral de como a restrição de equilíbrio do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) limita o crescimento de uma economia no longo prazo. A Teoria de Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) constitui a base metodológica para abordar esse tema. Essa é uma teoria de modelagem e simulação de sistemas complexos, e a sua utilização permitirá tratar de forma integrada as variáveis a serem analisadas. No final do trabalho, apresentar-se-ão algumas simulações com o objetivo de identificar o impacto de cenários alternativos (com mudança de parâmetros e condições iniciais) sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no período 1947-2006. / The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.

O assunto a ser tratado neste trabalho é a relação entre o crescimento econômico e a restrição externa. O objetivo do trabalho é construir um modelo macroeconômico de simulação que sirva de instrumento de análise, ainda que modesto, da relação entre os componentes de Demanda Agregada (DA) e as variáveis do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) da economia brasileira no período 1947-2006. O modelo baseia-se no Princípio da Demanda Efetiva (PDE) formalizado inicialmente por Keynes e Kalecki, através do qual Thirlwall (1979) derivou um resultado geral de como a restrição de equilíbrio do Balanço de Pagamentos (BP) limita o crescimento de uma economia no longo prazo. A Teoria de Dinâmica de Sistemas (DS) constitui a base metodológica para abordar esse tema. Essa é uma teoria de modelagem e simulação de sistemas complexos, e a sua utilização permitirá tratar de forma integrada as variáveis a serem analisadas. No final do trabalho, apresentar-se-ão algumas simulações com o objetivo de identificar o impacto de cenários alternativos (com mudança de parâmetros e condições iniciais) sobre a taxa de crescimento da economia no período 1947-2006. / The matter to be treated in this work is the relationship between economic growth and foreign restriction. The objective is to build a macroeconomic simulation model to serve as a tool for analysis, though modest,of the relationship between the components of Aggregate Demand and the variables of the Balance of Payments of the Brazilian economy in the period 1947-2006. The model is based on the Principle of Effective Demand, formalized initially by Keynes and Kalecki, through which Thirlwall (1979) derived a general result of how the restriction of the Balance of Payments limits growth of an economy in the long run. The Theory of System Dynamics forms the methodological basis for addressing this theme. This is a theory of modeling and simulation of complex systems, and its use will allow to treat the variables to be examined in an integrated way. At the end of the work it will be presented some simulations with the goal of identifying the impact of alternative scenarios (with change of parameters and initial conditions) on the growth rate of the economy in the period 1947-2006.

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise institucionalista-pós-keynesiana da História Econômica da Amazônia, desde 1615 até o final das políticas desenvolvimentistas na década de 1980. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é apresentar e analisar, à luz do referido referencial teórico, os motivos pelos quais a Amazônia não teve uma dinâmica de crescimento e desenvolvimento relativamente estável, mas, muito pelo contrário, foi caracterizada pelo subdesenvolvimento. Para identificar as causas do subdesenvolvimento atual da Amazônia foram utilizadas as seguintes categorias/conceituações analíticas convergentes entre Veblen, Commons e Keynes; racionalidade limitada, incerteza, hábito, convenção, instituições (sistema monetário) e demanda efetiva. Para apresentar e analisar as modificações ocorridas nas instituições e na estrutura econômica da Amazônia foram utilizados e interpretados dados quantitativos dos relatórios dos governos estaduais da época, dos Anuários Estatísticos editados pelo IBGE e do banco de dados do IPEADATA. / This thesis presents an Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian analysis of the Economic History of Amazonia from 1615 to the end of development policies in the 1980s. The main objective is to present and analyze, in the light of the Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian approaches, the reasons why the Amazon region did not have a sustainable economic growth and development economic, but, on the contrary, its economic history was characterized by an underdevelopment process. In order to identify the causes of the current underdevelopment of the Amazon, it was considered the following convergent categories between Veblen, Commons and Keynes: bounded rationality, uncertainty, habit, convention, institutions (monetary system) and effective demand. To aim at analyzing the changes occurred in the institutions and in the economic structure of the Amazon, we used and interpreted the of regional governments’ revenues and expenditures of the State Governments, the Statistical Yearbooks edited by IBGE and statistical information of IPEADATA.

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise institucionalista-pós-keynesiana da História Econômica da Amazônia, desde 1615 até o final das políticas desenvolvimentistas na década de 1980. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é apresentar e analisar, à luz do referido referencial teórico, os motivos pelos quais a Amazônia não teve uma dinâmica de crescimento e desenvolvimento relativamente estável, mas, muito pelo contrário, foi caracterizada pelo subdesenvolvimento. Para identificar as causas do subdesenvolvimento atual da Amazônia foram utilizadas as seguintes categorias/conceituações analíticas convergentes entre Veblen, Commons e Keynes; racionalidade limitada, incerteza, hábito, convenção, instituições (sistema monetário) e demanda efetiva. Para apresentar e analisar as modificações ocorridas nas instituições e na estrutura econômica da Amazônia foram utilizados e interpretados dados quantitativos dos relatórios dos governos estaduais da época, dos Anuários Estatísticos editados pelo IBGE e do banco de dados do IPEADATA. / This thesis presents an Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian analysis of the Economic History of Amazonia from 1615 to the end of development policies in the 1980s. The main objective is to present and analyze, in the light of the Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian approaches, the reasons why the Amazon region did not have a sustainable economic growth and development economic, but, on the contrary, its economic history was characterized by an underdevelopment process. In order to identify the causes of the current underdevelopment of the Amazon, it was considered the following convergent categories between Veblen, Commons and Keynes: bounded rationality, uncertainty, habit, convention, institutions (monetary system) and effective demand. To aim at analyzing the changes occurred in the institutions and in the economic structure of the Amazon, we used and interpreted the of regional governments’ revenues and expenditures of the State Governments, the Statistical Yearbooks edited by IBGE and statistical information of IPEADATA.

Este trabalho apresenta uma análise institucionalista-pós-keynesiana da História Econômica da Amazônia, desde 1615 até o final das políticas desenvolvimentistas na década de 1980. O objetivo principal desta pesquisa é apresentar e analisar, à luz do referido referencial teórico, os motivos pelos quais a Amazônia não teve uma dinâmica de crescimento e desenvolvimento relativamente estável, mas, muito pelo contrário, foi caracterizada pelo subdesenvolvimento. Para identificar as causas do subdesenvolvimento atual da Amazônia foram utilizadas as seguintes categorias/conceituações analíticas convergentes entre Veblen, Commons e Keynes; racionalidade limitada, incerteza, hábito, convenção, instituições (sistema monetário) e demanda efetiva. Para apresentar e analisar as modificações ocorridas nas instituições e na estrutura econômica da Amazônia foram utilizados e interpretados dados quantitativos dos relatórios dos governos estaduais da época, dos Anuários Estatísticos editados pelo IBGE e do banco de dados do IPEADATA. / This thesis presents an Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian analysis of the Economic History of Amazonia from 1615 to the end of development policies in the 1980s. The main objective is to present and analyze, in the light of the Institutionalist and Post-Keynesian approaches, the reasons why the Amazon region did not have a sustainable economic growth and development economic, but, on the contrary, its economic history was characterized by an underdevelopment process. In order to identify the causes of the current underdevelopment of the Amazon, it was considered the following convergent categories between Veblen, Commons and Keynes: bounded rationality, uncertainty, habit, convention, institutions (monetary system) and effective demand. To aim at analyzing the changes occurred in the institutions and in the economic structure of the Amazon, we used and interpreted the of regional governments’ revenues and expenditures of the State Governments, the Statistical Yearbooks edited by IBGE and statistical information of IPEADATA.

The theoretical foundations of the Post Keynesian view of money are examined, including the nature of money, role of uncertainty and time, and the use of equilibrium concepts. This provides a backdrop against which the Post Keynesian analysis of interest rates, investment behaviour: inflation and demand determination is presented in a framework of non-neutral money and Keynes' principle of effective demand. A model of the Post Keynesian theory of money is presented, with arguments as to why the IS/LM model of the neoclassical synthesis is considered deficient. The money supply endogeneity view is explored, together with Keynes' finance motive. The open economy case is considered, with emphasis on a small open economy. The monetary policy perspectives of the Post Keynesian camp are examined. The implications for South Africa are considered in respect of money supply targeting, interest rate policy, anti-inflation measures, public debt management, exchange rates and Reserve Bank objectives. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)