Thesis (Ph. D.)--Columbia University, 1967. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 120-123).

This dissertation describes two essays in empirical international trade, focusing on trade costs and the pattern of trade along the intensive and extensive margins. In the first essay, I study the barriers that impede international trade. In the second paper, I examine the growth of U.S. agricultural trade in detail describing how U.S. agriculture and food trade has expanded along the margins. The first chapter introduces a relatively straightforward, yet empirically powerful, manipulation of the gravity equation. The gravity model has been dubbed the work horse model of empirical trade, and thus is a suitable foundation from which to derive an indirect measure of largely unobservable 'iceberg' trade costs. In this paper, I solve a sector level version of the gravity equation and study the pattern of agricultural trade costs and factors that impede world agricultural trade growth over a long time series, 1986-2011. In addition, I estimate sector-specific elasticity of substitution which is a key parameter in the computation of trade cost. In the second essay, I examine the growth of world and U.S. agricultural exports along the intensive and extensive margins of international trade over the period 1986 to 2010. The purpose of this essay is to decompose the growth of world and U.S. agricultural trade using qualitative methods from the marketing literature (i.e., market expansion grids) but modified to fit bilateral trade relationships and a theoretical index to measure the margins of trade at a single point in time. In addition, we examine often overlooked channels by which U.S. agricultural exports have expanded using very detailed agricultural product lines. Using information related to the pattern of a trade rather than trade volume itself, I estimate how much starting a trade relationship with a new partner or in a new product variety matters to agricultural trade growth and then conclude with a set of stylized facts to inform current theory. / Ph. D.

This thesis consists of three chapters investigating the impact of immigrant language skills on Canadian wages. The first chapter, “Linguistic diversity among Canadian immigrants: 1981-2006”, describes the changes in linguistic diversity among Canadian immigrants, as measured by a preferred linguistic distance measure, the Levenshtein Distance (LD) Index, and documents socio-demographic characteristics of recent immigrants as well as their labour market performance based on their language capital at the time of entry. The LD is an approximation of immigrants’ language skills in the Canadian official languages and represents the “distance” of an immigrant’s reported language to the Canadian official languages. Using the 20% micro-data files of the Canadian Censuses between 1981 and 2006, I assign each immigrant an index number based on two language measures: mother tongue and home language. French and English are defined as the Canadian official languages in Quebec and outside of Quebec, respectively. The main findings suggest that although immigrants’ mother tongues became more “distant” to the Canadian official languages in both regions over time, the language skill of an average immigrant based on home language remained almost the same in Quebec, in particular, between 1981 and 1996. In terms of immigrants’ socio-demographic characteristics and their labour market performance, general patterns were similar across the two regions, although there were significant differences by language groups. In particular, the change in immigrants’ wages by language groups is suggestive of the role of language skills in determining wages. The second chapter, “Immigrant versus native men? Substitutability and the role of linguistic diversity in Canada”, estimates the degree of substitutability between immigrant and native men by incorporating immigrants’ language skills into the analysis and calculates the potential wage effects of immigration on Canadian wages. Using the 20% micro-data files of the Canadian Censuses between 1981 and 2006 and imposing a nested-CES production function on the Canadian economy, I estimate immigrant-native substitutability based on immigrants’ language skills in addition to education levels and years of labour market experience. I use the LD Index to represent immigrants’ language skills by the distance of the mother tongue and home language of an immigrant to English outside of Quebec and to French in Quebec. I define three language groups for immigrants as the high language-skilled, the medium language-skilled, and the low language-skilled. The key findings are as follows. First, home language-based estimates suggest imperfect substitutability in Canada outside of Quebec in some cases. Second, by language skill groups, the low language-skilled immigrants are more likely to be imperfect substitutes for the Canadian-born. Third, the findings for Quebec are substantially different from those for Canada outside of Quebec. My simulations suggest that the long-run effect of immigration on immigrants’ wages was negative between 1981 and 2006 while the long-run effect of immigration on the wages of the Canadian-born was small but positive over the same period. The third chapter, “Gender, linguistic diversity, and labour market substitutability”, uses the same methodology and data sources as in the second chapter to incorporate female workers into the analysis of immigrant-native substitutability. This study estimates the elasticity of substitution between immigrant language groups and natives for female workers and the pooled sample of male and female workers. The findings suggest that the degree of substitutability between female immigrants and female natives is similar to the degree of substitutability between male immigrants and male natives. The main results do not change for the pooled sample. Due to potential differences between language accumulation processes between female and male immigrants, the third chapter also estimates female-male immigrants substitutability based on language skills, education levels, and years of labour market experience. The findings suggest that female and male immigrants are imperfect substitutes outside of Quebec regardless of language measures.

This paper presents a translog model designed to estimate the elasticity of substitution between capital, non-production workers, and production workers using U.S. manufacturing data for the period 1988 to 1997. The elasticity of substitution estimates derived from the translog model suggest that production workers and capital are substitutes, as well as non-production and production workers. Although the estimates do not provide conclusive evidence regarding the degree of substitutability between non-production workers and capital, they do indicate that the degree of substitutability between production workers and capital is greater than it is between non-production workers and capital. / Master of Arts

Este estudo tem a finalidade de estimar uma função de custo transcendental logarítmica para a atividade de produção de soja, e através dela determinar o tamanho ótimo da atividade de produção de soja, a fim de inferir sobre a existência, ou não, de economias de escala no setor. Adicionalmente, objetiva-se a caracterização sócio-econômica dos produtores de soja pesquisados e a análise das possibilidades de substituição dos recursos no processo produtivo da atividade. O referencial teórico do estudo é a teoria da dualidade da função custo e da função de produção. Os dados utilizados para a análise são de corte transversal, obtidos a partir de uma pesquisa de campo, realizada de agosto a dezembro de 2005, em uma amostra de 218 (duzentos e dezoito) produtores de soja nos cinco principais estados produtores do país: Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás e Mato Grosso do Sul. A amostra representa as realidades regionais, com o predomínio de produtores com pequenas propriedades nos estados da região Sul do país e produtores com propriedades maiores no Centro-Oeste brasileiro. As elasticidades-preço cruzadas mostraram que há complementaridade entre os fatores mão-de-obra e capital. As elasticidades de substituição parcial de Allen indicaram substituição entre a maior parte dos fatores de produção. Houve uma forte relação de complementaridade entre os fatores capital e mão-de-obra e de substituição entre os fatores químicos e mão-de-obra. Na classificação de Morishima, capital e mão-de-obra são complementares quando o preço de capital varia, e substitutos quando varia o preço do fator mão-de-obra. As estimativas de economias de escala obtidas apontam uma escala ótima de produção de aproximadamente 11.880 toneladas de soja em grão, que pode ser obtida em propriedades com aproximadamente 4.000 hectares de área de produção de soja. Os resultados empíricos obtidos neste trabalho sugerem que as economias de escala estejam determinando uma nova configuração para o setor de produção de soja no Brasil. No entanto, algumas características da pequena produção podem minimizar a importância dessas economias e estão sendo determinantes para a manutenção da produção em pequena escala na região Sul do país, no curto prazo. / The main objective of this paper is to estimate a translog cost function for the soybean production activity in Brazil, to infer about the existence of scale economies in the sector. We use cross-section data obtained through a field research undertake during the period of September to December 2004, in a sample of 218 soybean-producing units in the main producer states in Brazil. The paper also addresses a socio-economic characterization of the surveyed units and analyses substitution possibilities between inputs. The sample reflects regional detail of production structure, with smaller producers concentrated in Southern Brazil and larger producers concentrate in the Center-West region. The elasticities of derived demand showed complementary relation between labor and capital. The Allen partial elasticities of substitution show substitution between most of the production inputs. Capital and labor are complements and chemical and labor are substitutes. In terms of Morishima elasticity of substitution capital and labor are complements when capital price varies and they are substitutes when labor price varies. The economies of scale estimates point to an optimal scale of production around 12 thousand ton that could be produced in an area with approximately 4,000 hectares. The results suggest that the presence of scale economies could be determining a new production structure for the sector in Brazil. And finally, the evidence found also suggests that some aspects of the small production system work to reduce the importance of these scale economies, and are determinant to keep the small-scale operations in the traditional regions in the short run.

With the significant rise in immigration to the U.S. over the last few decades, fully understanding the economic impact of immigration is paramount for policy makers. As such, this dissertation consists of three empirical essays contributing to the literature on the impact of immigration. In my first essay, I re-examine the impact of immigration on housing rents and completely controlling for endogenous location choices of immigrants. I model rents as a function of both contemporaneous and initial economic and housing market conditions. I show that existing estimates of the impact of immigration on rents are biased and the source of the bias is the instrumental variable strategy common in much of the immigration literature. In my second essay, I present a new approach to estimating the effect of immigration on native wages. Noting the imperfect substitutability of immigrants and natives within education groups, I posit an empirical framework where labor markets are stratified by occupations. Using occupation-specific skill to define homogeneous skill groups, I estimate the partial equilibrium (within skill group) effect of immigration. The results suggest that when one defines labor market cohorts that directly compete in the labor market, the effect of immigration on native wages is roughly twice as large as previous estimates in the literature. In my third essay, I return to the housing market and examine the effects of immigration within metropolitan areas. Specifically, I investigate the relationship between immigrant inflows, native outflows, and rents. Taking advantage of the unique settlement patterns of immigrants, I show that the effect of immigration on rents is lower in both high-immigrant neighborhoods and portions of the rent distribution where immigrants cluster. Contrary to the existing belief in the literature, the results suggest that the preferences of natives, not immigrants, bid up rents in response to an immigrant inflow.

Master of Science / Agricultural Economics / Jason S. Bergtold / The use of elasticities of substitution between inputs has become the standard method for addressing the effect of a change in the mix of input used for production from a technological or cost standpoint. (Chambers 1988) A researcher that wants to estimate this elasticity, or some other comparative static, typically would do so using parametric production or cost function (e.g. translog or normalized quadratic) with panel data. For a study with only cross-sectional data, the construction of such a function may be problematic. Using a dual approach, a nonparametric alternative in such a situation may be the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Cooper et al. (2000) provided a methodology for estimating elasticities of substitution for the technical production problem using DEA. To our knowledge, this has not been extended to the cost efficiency problem, which would be equivalent to estimating Allen partial or Morishima elasticities of substitution between inputs using a cost function (or cost minimization framework). The purpose of this thesis is to show how elasticities of substitution can be derived and estimated for the technical production and cost (overall economic) efficiency DEA under variable returns to scale. In addition, an empirical example using Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) data is presented to illustrate the estimation of these elasticities. The results showed that input substitutability is relatively limited at the enterprise level

Este estudo tem a finalidade de estimar uma função de custo transcendental logarítmica para a atividade de produção de soja, e através dela determinar o tamanho ótimo da atividade de produção de soja, a fim de inferir sobre a existência, ou não, de economias de escala no setor. Adicionalmente, objetiva-se a caracterização sócio-econômica dos produtores de soja pesquisados e a análise das possibilidades de substituição dos recursos no processo produtivo da atividade. O referencial teórico do estudo é a teoria da dualidade da função custo e da função de produção. Os dados utilizados para a análise são de corte transversal, obtidos a partir de uma pesquisa de campo, realizada de agosto a dezembro de 2005, em uma amostra de 218 (duzentos e dezoito) produtores de soja nos cinco principais estados produtores do país: Mato Grosso, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Goiás e Mato Grosso do Sul. A amostra representa as realidades regionais, com o predomínio de produtores com pequenas propriedades nos estados da região Sul do país e produtores com propriedades maiores no Centro-Oeste brasileiro. As elasticidades-preço cruzadas mostraram que há complementaridade entre os fatores mão-de-obra e capital. As elasticidades de substituição parcial de Allen indicaram substituição entre a maior parte dos fatores de produção. Houve uma forte relação de complementaridade entre os fatores capital e mão-de-obra e de substituição entre os fatores químicos e mão-de-obra. Na classificação de Morishima, capital e mão-de-obra são complementares quando o preço de capital varia, e substitutos quando varia o preço do fator mão-de-obra. As estimativas de economias de escala obtidas apontam uma escala ótima de produção de aproximadamente 11.880 toneladas de soja em grão, que pode ser obtida em propriedades com aproximadamente 4.000 hectares de área de produção de soja. Os resultados empíricos obtidos neste trabalho sugerem que as economias de escala estejam determinando uma nova configuração para o setor de produção de soja no Brasil. No entanto, algumas características da pequena produção podem minimizar a importância dessas economias e estão sendo determinantes para a manutenção da produção em pequena escala na região Sul do país, no curto prazo. / The main objective of this paper is to estimate a translog cost function for the soybean production activity in Brazil, to infer about the existence of scale economies in the sector. We use cross-section data obtained through a field research undertake during the period of September to December 2004, in a sample of 218 soybean-producing units in the main producer states in Brazil. The paper also addresses a socio-economic characterization of the surveyed units and analyses substitution possibilities between inputs. The sample reflects regional detail of production structure, with smaller producers concentrated in Southern Brazil and larger producers concentrate in the Center-West region. The elasticities of derived demand showed complementary relation between labor and capital. The Allen partial elasticities of substitution show substitution between most of the production inputs. Capital and labor are complements and chemical and labor are substitutes. In terms of Morishima elasticity of substitution capital and labor are complements when capital price varies and they are substitutes when labor price varies. The economies of scale estimates point to an optimal scale of production around 12 thousand ton that could be produced in an area with approximately 4,000 hectares. The results suggest that the presence of scale economies could be determining a new production structure for the sector in Brazil. And finally, the evidence found also suggests that some aspects of the small production system work to reduce the importance of these scale economies, and are determinant to keep the small-scale operations in the traditional regions in the short run.

This dissertation consists of three chapters that estimate the elasticities regarding price and time in trade and household production. Chapters 1 and 2 estimate price elasticities. Chapter 1 estimates the one-factor-one-price elasticity of substitution (OOES)—or how the percentage change in the quantity of one good responds to the percentage change in the price (of itself or another good)—in an international trade context. Chapter 2 estimates the two-factor-one-price elasticity of substitution (TOES)—or the difference of percentage changes between two quantities with respect to the percentage change in the price of one good—in the context of household food production. Chapter 3 estimates the elasticity of export quantity and value with respect to delays in the time it takes to load or unload products at US ports. Chapter 1 estimates the price elasticities in agricultural trade. Armington elasticities, the elasticity of substitution between goods from different countries, are key parameters in agricultural trade policy evaluation and welfare calculation. We estimate Armington elasticities for a selected basket of 38 agricultural commodities in 5 categories by compiling a sample of 118 countries' production and trade flows. Following and extending Feenstra et al. (2018), we estimate both the micro-elasticity of substitution between foreign sources of imports and the macro-elasticity of substitution between home and imported products at the commodity level. The median of the micro- and macro-elasticities are 6.4 and 5.0, respectively. Meat products have the lowest micro- and macro-elasticities, with the micro-elasticities ranging from 4.2 (pork) to 5.0 (poultry) and the macro-elasticities ranging from 2.9 (pork) to 4.5 (beef). Crops products have the widest range of Armington elasticities, with micro-elasticities ranging from 2.5 (pigeon peas) to 90.3 (peanuts), and macro-elasticities ranging from 1.2 (pigeon peas) to 20.1 (peanuts). In line with the literature, we find that 75 percent of the agricultural commodities have numerically smaller macro-elasticities than micro-elasticities, even though only 6 of them (pork, poultry, corn, peanuts, apples, and peppers) are statistically smaller at the 5 percent level. We explore the robustness of our estimates by slicing the sample into separate periods and importing countries. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our estimates on predicting trade due to tariff changes and understanding welfare gains from agricultural trade. Chapter 2 estimates the goods-time elasticity of substitution (EOS), the responsiveness of the difference between money and time in household production for change of opportunity cost of time (OCT). This chapter bridges the gap between literature that directly and indirectly estimates the goods-time EOS in household production. Inspired by the studies in environmental economics, we argue the opportunity cost of time in household production not only depends on wage but life-cycle dynamics and household demographics as well. We proceed with the estimation by two strategies: direct estimation of the household production, and the demand-supply approach borrowed from Feenstra's (1994) research on trade elasticities. Both strategies report the estimates are much larger than unit and closer to previous indirect estimates. We show our results are robust when applied to Aguiar and Hurst's (2007) sample, in which they employed the indirect estimation. The larger goods-time EOS indicates policies aiding households with money for groceries like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are more sufficient, since money for certain groceries can more easily substitute for time in making meals. Chapter 3 explores the elasticity of trade with respect to port congestion time. U.S. ports have struggled with significant supply chain congestion during the past two years. Anecdotal evidence shows the increasing port congestion brought substantial losses to U.S. exports, particularly agricultural shipments. However, previous studies are limited by the availability of explicit data on congestion times for unloading. This study first quantifies the association between port congestion days and U.S. agricultural exports, using monthly export data of top U.S. ports and their monthly average container and bulk shipments delays. We find one extra day delay of container shipments decreases U.S. agricultural monthly exports by 5 percent in quantity or 2 percent in value on average. That amounts to $63 million in monthly loss of export value on average, and Western U.S. ports are responsible for 69 percent of this total. The effect is most pronounced for the Western U.S. exports of bulk commodities, where congestion results in a 9 percent loss in quantity or 8 percent loss in value. For Eastern U.S., the most salient effect is on consumer commodities, with a loss of 3 percent in quantity and 3 percent in value. For the Gulf region, the largest effect is on bulk commodities, with a loss of 4 percent in quantity and 5 percent in value. The impacts of congestion on bulk shipments are both statistically and economically insignificant. However, we find some evidence that exporters substitute bulk cargoes with containers when bulk shipment delays at ports increase. The substitution of container shipments with bulk shipments, however, is unlikely. / Doctor of Philosophy / This dissertation explores price and time factors in trade and household production. All three chapters estimate the percentage change in a variable for the percentage change to some other variables (i.e., an elasticity). Chapter 1 estimates the elasticities in international agricultural trade. The core concept the first chapter relies on is the one-factor-one-price elasticity of substitution (OOES), or how the percentage change in the quantity of one good responds to the percentage change in the price (of itself or another good). Chapter 2 estimates the two-factor-one-price elasticity of substitution (TOES)—or the difference of percentage changes between two quantities with respect to the percentage change in the price of one good—in household food production context. The third chapter estimate the responsiveness of export quantity/value to time delays at port. The first chapter examines how the demand for agricultural product imports will respond to price change. The study quantifies the responsiveness at two levels—micro and macro—using the Armington model, in which the product from each country is considered as a "variety". The micro-level elasticities capture the import demand responsiveness for a country of variety, say, Australian beef, when beef import price from Australia changes; The macro-elasticities capture the import demand responsiveness when, say, beef import prices from all countries change. We estimate both elasticities for a basket of 38 commodities, to shed light on policies such as "trade war" and multilateral trade agreements. In the median, one percent increase in price from a country of variety decreases 6.4 percent of demand for it; one percent decrease of price from all countries increases import demand by 5.0 percent. The second chapter studies the substitutability between money and time in household production, or the goods-time elasticity of substitution (EOS), which captures the percentage change of money (for grocery purchases) relative to time (for food preparation and cleaning up, etc.) for the change of price of time. But what is the price of time in food production? Economists use the term opportunity cost of time (OCT), the highest value that household could spend their time on if not on food production. While most economists agree that OCT correlates with wage, this chapter argues the correlation differs by life cycle and household characteristics. What's more, OCT should also include non-wage factors like household characteristics. Maybe households with children in their middle age just value time with children more than the market wage. In this case, the value of time with children, instead of wage, could be their OCT in food production. Based on these arguments, the study estimates the goods-time EOS is much larger than in previous studies. The magnitude of goods-time EOS has strong policy implications for policies like the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides lower-income households money to buy groceries. If money and time are more substitutable, SNAP benefits will be more sufficient since money for certain groceries can more easily substitute for time in making meals. If goods-time EOS is small, however, SNAP benefits will be less sufficient, since the groceries are hardly substitutable for time in food production, and households still need to input a significant amount of time. The third chapter considers the time factor in international trade. It leverages the bottleneck of the international supply chain, port delays, in past years to study the elasticity of trade with respect to port congestion time. The study focuses on U.S. agricultural exports of bulk shipments and container shipments. We estimate that each day of container shipment delay is associated with 5 percent decrease in export quantity and 2 percent decrease in export value. Compared with the estimates of micro-elasticities in Chapter 1, one-day delay of container shipment is equivalent to imposing extra 0.8 percent of tariff on U.S. agricultural products in the median. The effect of bulk shipment delay is muted. Chapter 3, combined with Chapter 1, sheds light on the price of time in agricultural trade.

The first study investigates the factors that impact the duration of U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports. We employ both survival analysis (Kaplan Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards model) as well as count data models. Our results indicate that SPS treatment requirements positively impact the duration of trade while new market access has the opposite effect. Other factors typically included in trade duration models (such as: GDP, transportation costs, tariff rates, etc.) were also investigated. We also employ a probit model to understand the factors impacting the probability that a country selects into exporting fresh fruits and vegetables to the United States. The second study estimates the goods-time elasticity of substitution for Food Stamp/SNAP participants versus non participants. We find that the elasticity of substitution for SNAP participants is not statistically different from zero. This indicates that SNAP participants have Leontief production function in household food production, implying that increasing the amount of SNAP benefits paid to participants will not lead to more food production if the time households dedicate to food preparation remains unchanged. This finding extends the analysis done by Baral, Davis and You (2011) and offers insights for policies related to the SNAP program. / Master of Science