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published_or_final_version / Urban Studies / Master / Master of Social Sciences

Eskom is the major electricity supplier in South Africa and medium term forecasting within the company is a critical activity to ensure that enough electricity is generated to support the country's growth, that the networks can supply the electricity and that the revenue derived from electricity consumption is managed efficiently. This study investigates the most suitable forecasting technique for predicting monthly electricity consumption, one year ahead for four major municipalities within Kwa-Zulu Natal. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 1997.

Thesis (M. Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1993.

In terms of economic development, internal availability of energy in a region means the capability to produce essential goods and services for the improvement in the quality of life of all the economic agents. Economic development consists in large part of harnessing increasing amounts of energy for productive purposes or by making more efficient use of available energy resources. In this dissertation, the future electricity supply and demand interactions are examined for seven countries in West Africa: Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Niger, Nigeria, Togo, and Upper Volta. A description of the primary energy resources (coal, hydro, natural gas, and oil) available in each country is presented. The future demands for electricity in the medium term (1980-1989) are projected through econometric models developed in the study. Two sectorial models for each country's economy, the residential sector, and the commercial and industrial sector, are presented. Multiple regression analysis is applied in the estimation of all demand equations. Major determinants for electricity demand used in the estimation for the residential sector were average price of electricity, real personal income, and the number of households with access to electricity. Data on these variables were obtained from international organisations such as the United Nations and from government publications for the period 1960-1977. Each of these determinants was found to be significant for most countries; however, their relative importance differ across countries. Similarly, average price of electricity, real output, and employment were major determinants used and found to be significant in the demand for electricity in the commercial and industrial sector of all countries. Price and income elasticities were obtained from the estimated equations. A general multi-region supply model was developed to structure the future electricity supply possibilities in the countries involved. The objective of this model, using linear programming, was to seek the least-cost combination of resources (primary energy, capital, and technology) for the production of electricity. The impacts of various levels of resource availability on average cost of electricity were examined for each country, and for joint development efforts using a non-integer, deterministic, linear version of the general model. The application of the supply and demand models to West Africa over the decade to 1989 reveals that except for Nigeria, all countries in the region will require fossil fueled systems to supply additional demands for electricity, because all hydro resources would have to be exploited by the mid-1980s. This will lead to higher costs in producing electricity. However, Nigeria is expected to have excess electrical energy if plans initiated in its third development plan are completed. The extension of transmission lines between Nigeria and Benin could effectively distribute the relatively cheaper energy from Nigeria to other countries, since adequate transmission network already exists between most of the countries.

Thesis (MScIng)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Electricity theft in South Africa has become a major problem. This led to several developments from both industries and research institutes to counter these actions. Since equipment is already installed and major capital has been invested to provide electricity for a broad spectrum of consumers, the challenge is to find a low cost solution harnessing current investments and technology to detect electricity theft more accurately. This thesis investigates into the electricity theft topic. Two different methods, Time Domain Pulse Reflectometry and a data driven platform based on the Theory of Constraints philosophy, were investigated to provide means to detect and determine the impact of illegal electricity usage. Both methods required detailed designs to conduct preliminary proof of concept tests in a laboratory environment. These methods are evaluated against their economical viability, possible practical implications and applications. This thesis presents a practical approach to electricity theft detection and provides the basic tools for management of this ever-increasing problem. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid Afrika se elektrisiteit diefstal statistiek het die afgelope jare skrikwekkend gegroei. Dit het die industrie genoop om baie meer navorsing in die area te doen. Met reeds gevestigde toerusting en tegnologie om di´e energie medium so effektief moontlik te versprei, is die uitdaging juis om ’n ekonomiese oplossing te vind om reeds beskikbare tegnologie¨e meer doeltreffend aan te wend. Die doel van die tesis is om die gebied van elektrisiteit diefstal na te vors. Twee verskillende metodes is ondersoek, naamlik Tydgebied-pulse-reflektometrie en ’n informasie gebaseerde stelsel wat op die Randvoorwaarde Teorie gebaseer is, om effektief die omvang van elektrisiteit diefstal in ’n mikro, asook makro omgewing te bepaal. Die twee metodes is in ’n beheerde omgewing getoets sodat die konsepte wat ontwikkel is bewys kon word. Die metodes is ge-evalueer in terme van die ekonomiese lewensvatbaarheid daarvan met inagneming van die praktiese implikasies. Die tesis bied bestuur die nodige kennis om elektrisiteit diefstal in die praktyk doeltreffend die hok mee te slaan.

D.Ing. (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) / The electricity shortage in South Africa has required the implementation of demand side management (DSM) projects. The DSM projects were implemented by installing energy monitoring and control systems to monitor certain mining aspects such as water pumping systems. Certain energy saving procedures and control systems followed by the mining industry are not sustainable and must be updated regularly in order to meet any changes in the water pumping system. In addition, the present water pumping, monitoring, and control system does not predict the energy consumption or the underground water dam levels. Hence, there is a need to introduce new monitoring system that could control and predict the energy consumption of the underground water pumping system and dam levels based on present and historical data. The work is undertaken to investigate the feasibility of using artificial intelligence in certain aspects of the mining industry. If successful, artificial intelligence systems could lead to improved safety and reduced electrical energy consumption, and decreased human error that could occur throughout the pump station monitoring and control process ...

M.Com. (Business Management) / The residential demand profile for electricity shows that this segment of the market has. a great demand in the morning and early evening. Due to a shortage of generation capacity during these peak consumption periods, different strategies are now needed to persuade customers to use their electricity in the periods when there is not a great demand. One way in which this can be achieved is to give the customers a time differentiated tariff i.e. a time-of-use (TOU) tariff, whereby the customer will pay a high energy rate in the peak periods, and lower energy rates in the off-peak and standard periods. The overall goal of this study was to determine to what extent residential customers would respond to such a tariff The study covered three consumption groups i.e. customers using more than 1500 kWh per month, between 600 and 1000 kWh per month, and between 300 and 600 kWh per month. All the customers taking part in the study were direct Eskom customers. Once the customers had agreed to participate in the study, they had TOU measuring equipment installed in their homes, which measured their consumption according to the time of day it was consumed.