Since democratisation of South Africa in 1994, the economy of South Africa underwent significant structural changes. Among these structural changes was electrification for the poor rural areas. During the apartheid era, about two-thirds of the nation lacked access to electricity and hence, provision for electricity to everyone was considered a crucial part of the economic development, post 1994. Since then economic growth and the demand for electricity in South Africa have been increasing at an unprecedented rate. The electricity supply did not increase proportionally to the increase in the consumption of electricity. In responding to the high increase in the demand for electricity, the electricity utility planned to build new power stations and put back in use the ones which were mothballed. But unfortunately the plan for investment in these power stations was late and in 2008, the existing power stations could not manage to supply enough electricity. The demand for electricity was such that it nearly damaged the power generating circuit and the electricity supply utility had to resort to load shedding. The imbalance between electricity supply and demand led to industrial sectors losing on production and as a result led to a downturn in economic growth. It also led to an increase in electricity prices which had a negative effect on individual and private sectors’ purchasing power. It is against this background that this study is designed to investigate the long term relationship between economic growth and electricity supply. The additional variables such as electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment were included as intermittent variables to form a multivariate framework. This study also assesses the Granger causality between these variables to determine which variable supersedes the other. Two models were applied in this study: The Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds approach and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality. The ARDL bounds technique was used to detect the long term relationship between economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, trade openness, capital and employment using annual data from 1985 to 2014. The ARDL technique was chosen over the conventional models such as Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen (1988) for the research for the following reasons: Firstly, the ARDL technique uses a single reduced form of equation to examine the long term relationship of the variables as opposed to the conventional Johansen test that employs a system of equations. Secondly, it is suitable to use for testing co-integration when a small sample data is used. Thirdly, it does not require the underlying variables to be integrated of similar order e.g. integrated of order zero I(0), integrated of order one I(1) or fractionally integrated, for it to be applicable. Lastly, it does not rely on the properties of unit root datasets and this makes it possible for the Granger-causality to be applied in testing the long term relationships between the variables. The VECM Granger-causality is used to examine the Granger-causality between the chosen variables. It was chosen for its ability to develop longer term forecasting when dealing with an unconstrained model. The unit root results confirmed that the variables were stationary at first difference using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips and Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shit (KPSS). The ARDL bound approach outcomes revealed that economic growth, electricity supply, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital move together in the long term. There were three co-integrated equations under the export and trade models while under the import model there was one co-integrated equation. The results are such that electricity prices have a negative impact on economic growth. The results further evidenced that; electricity supply, trade openness, employment and capital have a positive impact on economic growth in the long term. The VECM Granger causality findings suggested a unidirectional causality flowing from electricity supply, trade, exports, electricity prices, employment and capital to economic growth in the long term. There was another unidirectional causality established flowing from economic growth, trade openness, electricity prices, employment and capital to electricity supply. A one-way causality flowing from economic growth, electricity supply, electricity prices, employment and capital to export was evidenced. Overall, the study’s results of bidirectional Granger-causality between electricity supply and economic growth have a number of implications for forecasters and policy makers. This feedback hypothesis implies that the high level of economic growth leads to a high level of electricity supply, which would stimulate economic growth. Hence, South Africa demonstrates a kind of electricity dependence in a manner that a sufficiently large supply of electricity seems to ensure high economic growth. Electricity supply is a vitally important factor for economic growth in South Africa. It is therefore necessary that South African policy makers formulate investor friendly policies that will encourage, promote and attract capital inflows to stimulate electricity supply. The South African government needs to primarily deregulate the electricity supply industry which is owned by Eskom (a monopoly), and allow more investors into this industry. The government should promote a change to other forms of energy sources such as renewable energy sources which will play an important role in restoring the balance between electricity supply and consumption. Moreover, it is recommended that the electricity regulator should take steps to curb the severe electricity price increases and to ensure prices affordable to the poor communities. The policy makers need to implement some investor friendly policies that will encourage and promote capital formation. Furthermore, the government should invest towards more job creating sectors such as (Small and Medium Enterprises) SMEs. Finally, the government should take into consideration the importance of trade openness to attract international investments into the economy. It is hoped that the findings of this study would prove beneficial to policy makers in South Africa and elsewhere in the world where power outages are experienced, and assist them in combating the problem.

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Technology, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2015. / The primary objective of this research was to investigate the failures occurring in the family of surge arresters used within EThekwini Electricity, making use of different diagnostic methods, such as leakage current testing (LC), infrared scanning (IR), and partial discharge (PD) measurements. The different diagnostic tests were used to assess the degradation process of the polymer housed surge arresters and their failure. The measurements were used for diagnosis of 120 kV/65 kA surge arresters of different brands. Tests were performed on surge arresters that were still in the system and these test results were compared with results from tests performed on failed units. Results obtained from the different tests were compared to the test results for different families or designs. An imperfect arrester will exhibit excessive heating when an electrical surge is discharged. The aforementioned tenets are the primary factors influencing degradation and causing failure of Metal Oxide Surge Arrester (MOSA) in a system. These factors can decrease creepage and flashover distance on insulation, which could result in a substantial increase in resistive leakage current, (which is a few microamperes in ideal condition), overheating, and PD formation on the zinc oxide varistor element. Therefore, it is extremely important to assess the status of the surge arresters whilst they are in service, firstly so that they can be removed from the system before they fail and, and secondly, to verify their condition, and their ability to effectively protect the substation apparatus. Using infrared inspection, valuable information of condition of surge arresters was obtained, heat inside the surge arresters was detected and this shows that IR analysis can therefore be considered as an additional method to assess the condition of polymer housed surge arresters. It was observed that partial discharge activity is an indication of degradation in arrester varistor. LC test, IR, and PD measurement were valuable in obtaining sufficient information for failure of surge arresters. In additional, during the visual internal inspection of arresters, evidence of punctures, treeing, tracking, and moisture masks were noted on ZnO blocks and seals. These results indicate that the moisture ingress through the sealing collar can cause unnecessary outages. / M

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report discusses the development of a decision-making matrix during power crises. South Africa comes from a situation of excess supply and is currently in a situation where electricity demand exceeds supply. This report will provide the background of how the current electricity crisis came to be and what the future of the industry will look like. As electricity shortages is a worldwide issue, the study will explore international countries' experience of supply shortages and extract lessons learnt and best practices that can be applied in the South African context. The study reviews available solutions that exist to address the electricity crisis in South Africa and explores alternative energy sources that could be applied in South Africa. To establish an effective decision making tool for electricity shortage response mechanisms, the key decision making criteria are discussed and explained. A decision making matrix brings together all the available solutions and decision-making criteria based on the decision maker's relative importance placed on the considerations and the resultant impact on these considerations. The results of the decision-making matrix directs the decision maker to the least negative impact solution and provides a basis on which to make sound decisions during a time when quick and effective decisions will determine the success and sustainability of the power system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag bespreek die ontwikkeling van 'n besluitnemingsmodel wat aangewend kan word tydens kritiese tekorte in elekrisiteitsvoorsiening op 'n nasionale basis. Die elektrisiteits- ontwikkelingsvermoë in Suid-Afrika het beweeg vanaf 'n oorskot na 'n posisie waar daar nie in die aanvraag voorsien kan word nie. Hierdie navorsingsverslag skets die agtergrond van wat aanleiding gegee het tot die huidige elektrisiteitskrisis en wat die toekoms inhou vir elektrisiteitsvoorsiening in die algemeen. Die gebrek aan elektrisiteitsontwikkelingsvermoë is 'n wêreldwye tendens en die lesse wat ander lande geleer het tesame met hul beste praktyke word oorweeg binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks. Beskikbare oplossings wat op die manier geidentifiseer word, word ontleed, tesame met moontlike alternatiewe energiebronne wat in Suid-Afrika aangewend kan word. Die kern besluitnemingskriteria word bespreek en ontleed om sodoende 'n proses daar te stel waarvolgens die besluitnemingsmodel wat die mees effektiewe oplossing in tye van kritiese elektirsiteitstekorte sal voortbring te ontwikkel. Al die beskikbare en werkbare opsies tydens die periode van elektristeitstekorte word saamgevoeg binne die besluitnemingsmodel om die toepaslikheid daarvan op te weeg teenoor die relatiewe gewig wat die besluitnemer toeken aan al die onderliggende faktore. Die besluitnemingsmodel ondersteun die besluitnemer om, tydens 'n krisis in elektrisiteitsvoersiening, 'n vinnige en doeltreffende besluit te neem wat die minste negatiewe impak het op ekonomiese aktiwiteite en die sukses en stabiliteit van die elektrisiteitsvoorsieningsnetwerk waarborg.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Electrical energy has become an indispensable part of the modern world, supporting industries and economic systems. Any disruption of supply is felt immediately in all spheres of life. The operation of a power system is a complex process involving rotating machines that may fail from time even though they are maintained regularly. The overhead transmission system is likewise prone to faults caused by environmental factors such as pollution and lightning. Power authorities therefore operate their systems in such a way that they have sufficient reserve capacity available to allow for contingencies. In the last decade of the previous century a condition developed, for various reasons, that the reserve margin was too small in the South African electricity supply system. At the end of 2005, a spate of failures occurred at Koeberg power station and later in 2007 serious coal supply problems developed at the large power stations in Mpumalanga, aggravating the situation. This research project focuses on the complexity of the task of the reporter when reporting on occurrences such as these. It is required to convey the factual situation to the readers, avoiding alarmism and sensationalism. At the same time the reporter also has a role to play in educating the readers. It was a difficult task, seeing that the reporters were not necessary versed in the technical field. They therefore had to rely on Eskom’s spokespersons. In this project newspaper clippings of various Western Cape newspapers containing the word Eskom were analysed. The method of analysis was content analysis. Firstly the quantitative content analysis was used to obtain distribution of articles over the period and among newspapers. Thereafter the topics covered and the types of article were obtained for the various newspapers and years. Next articles for 2006 and 2008 were investigated using qualitative content analysis. Certain attributes in the articles were detected manually and a profile was obtained for each newspaper for each year period. Questionnaires were sent to reporters responsible for some of the articles and to a technical expert who was consulted regularly by the news reporters. It was found that the number of articles and style of presentation vary among the newspapers. There is evidence of framing of Eskom as incompetent. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Elektriese energie het ¢n onontbeerlike deel van die moderne wêreld geword wat nywerhede en ekonomiese stelsels ondersteun. Enige onderbreking van toevoer word onmiddellik in alle lewensfere gevoel. Die werking van kragstelsel is komplekse proses met roterende masjiene en ander toerusting wat onderworpe aan faling is, selfs al word dit in stand gehou. Die oorhoofse transmissiestelsel is ook onderworpe aan foute wat deur omgewingsfaktore soos besoedeling en weerlig veroorsaak word. Kragvoorsieners bedryf daarom hul stelsels so dat hulle voldoende reserwekapasiteit het om toe te laat vir gebeurlikhede. In die laaste dekade van die vorige eeu het die toestand, om verskeie redes, ontwikkel dat die reserwemarge in die Suid-Afrikaanse stelsel te klein geword het. Teen die einde van 2005 het reeks falings by Koeberg kragstasie plaasgevind en later in 2007 het ernstige steenkoolvoorsieningsprobleme by die groot kragstasies in Mpumalanga ontstaan en dus die situasie vererger. Hierdie navorsingsprojek fokus op die kompleksiteit van die taak van die verslaggewer as oor sulke gebeure verslag gedoen word. Dit word vereis om die feitelike situasie oor te dra sonder alarmisme en sensasie. Terselfdertyd moet die verslaggewer ook rol speel om die lesers op te voed. Dit is moeilike taak daar die verslaggewers nie noodwendig belese in die tegniese vakgebied is nie. Hulle moes dus staatmaak op Eskom se spreekbuise. In hierdie projek is koerantuitknipsels van verskeie Wes-Kaapse koerante wat die woord Eskom bevat, ontleed. Die metode wat gebruik is, is inhoudsanalise. Eerstens is kwantitatiewe inhoudsanalise gebruik om die verspreiding van artikels oor die tydperk en tussen die koerante te verkry. Daarna is die onderwerpe wat gedek is verkry vir die onderskeie koerante en jare. Vervolgens is artikels van 2006 en 2008 ondersoek deur kwalitatiewe inhoudsanalise te doen. Sekere kenmerke is in die artikels opgespoor en profiel is verkry vir elke koerant en elke jaarperiode. Vraelyste is aan verslaggewers wat sommige artikels geskryf het en ook aan tegniese deskundige wat gereeld deur verslaggewers genader is, gestuur. Dit is bevind dat die getal artikels en die styl van aanbieding wissel tussen die koerante Daar is ook tekens van raming van Eskom as onbekwaam.