“We emphasize the need to address the challenge of access to sustainable modern energy services for all, in particular for the poor, who are unable to afford these services even when they are available.”  Section 126: The Future We Want (Out Come Document of Rio+20-United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development June 20-22, 2012). The lack of energy access has been identified as a hurdle in achieving the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals, leading towards the urge to set a goal for universal electrification till 2030. With around 600 million people in Africa without access to electricity, effective and efficient electrification programs and policy framework is required to achieve this goal sustainably. South Africa is an example in the continent for initiating intense electrification programs and policies like “Free Basic Electricity”, increasing its electrification rate from 30% in 1993 to 75% in 2010 and a claimed 82% in 2011. The case of South Africa has been analysed from the perspective of universal electrification in the coming years. The aim was to estimate the un-electrified households for each area of South Africa in order to provide the basis for electrification planning. The idea was to use available electrification statistics with GIS (Geographic Information System) maps for grid lines and identifying the suitability of on-grid or off-grid electrification options, which may help in planning the electrification of these areas in the near future. However, due to lack of readily available data, the present work has been able to estimate the un-electrified households & their possible electrical load. The estimates have been distributed in different income groups for each province and district municipality of South Africa, which can be used for electrification planning at national, provincial and municipal level.  As a result, some simple and useful data parameters have been identified and an estimation methodology has been developed, which may be employed to obtain similar estimates at lower administrative levels i.e. local municipalities and wards. The work can be utilized further and feasible electrification options may be suggested for different areas of South Africa, with the help of GIS maps and data. Depending on the availability of useful data, the data parameters & indicators used in this work will be helpful for planning the electrification for rural households in other places of Africa.

Planning and engineering activities in small-scale power systems are, in most of cases, driven by immediately pressing factors such as short-term demand, system costs, expected revenues, and local development priorities. Often, the decision to go ahead with the investment in such systems is based on the outcomes of single-attribute spreadsheet type analyses and linear optimization runs where key parameters such as demand growth, interest rates, capital costs, and fuel prices are assumed to remain constant throughout the study period. The least-cost plan thus obtained is subject to changes in the above parameters requiring continual re-evaluation and assessment to bring the project up to date. An alternative method is hereby presented in which the uncertain parameters in a seemingly deterministic model were identified ahead of time. The range of values that each of these parameters could assume as well as the respective probabilities were elicited from the experts and incorporated in a decision analysis problem designed to generate the least-cost policy. The decision analysis process resulted in a robust evaluation of generation options under investigation when compared to the results of the deterministic analysis. Moreover, options ranked least in the deterministic analysis became quite competitive when uncertainties were included in the analysis. / Master of Science