published_or_final_version / abstract / Electrical and Electronic Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Planning and engineering activities in small-scale power systems are, in most of cases, driven by immediately pressing factors such as short-term demand, system costs, expected revenues, and local development priorities. Often, the decision to go ahead with the investment in such systems is based on the outcomes of single-attribute spreadsheet type analyses and linear optimization runs where key parameters such as demand growth, interest rates, capital costs, and fuel prices are assumed to remain constant throughout the study period. The least-cost plan thus obtained is subject to changes in the above parameters requiring continual re-evaluation and assessment to bring the project up to date. An alternative method is hereby presented in which the uncertain parameters in a seemingly deterministic model were identified ahead of time. The range of values that each of these parameters could assume as well as the respective probabilities were elicited from the experts and incorporated in a decision analysis problem designed to generate the least-cost policy. The decision analysis process resulted in a robust evaluation of generation options under investigation when compared to the results of the deterministic analysis. Moreover, options ranked least in the deterministic analysis became quite competitive when uncertainties were included in the analysis. / Master of Science

Planning of today's electric utilities demand careful consideration of issues such as environment, demand-side management, non-utility generation, and new technologies which are subject to different constraints and uncertainties. Utilities have long developed and used models for their short and long-term planning, most of which are single purpose, large, data intensive, and do not fully account for uncertainties. New techniques have emerged to deal with uncertainties in utility planning. Among them, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been more successful in assessing uncertainties, and found to be well structured and applicable to individual as well as group decision makers. However, the results of this method are merely point estimate values. It is the objective of this research to identify a methodology which is capable of evaluating uncertainties with relative ease and accuracy without the need for a large volume of data and complicated software packages. The Analytic Hierarchy Process has been extended to estimate the variance of the error in judgments and therefore the confidence interval of values instead of point estimate values. A simulation study was carried out to check the accuracy of error variance (QI) in confidence interval calculations. The results showed that QI has a linear relationships with the variance of weights. The extended AHP method is applied to three case studies, including 1) Third party generation bidding evaluation criteria, 2) Identification and evaluation of different load management programs on utility peak reduction, and 3) Oil price prediction for electric utilities. This method promises to be an effective decision making tool for evaluating uncertainties in electric power system planning. / Ph. D.

Orientadores: Secundino Soares Filho, Anibal Tavares de Azevedo / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-15T02:42:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Martins_LeonardoSilveiradeAlbuquerque_D.pdf: 6848439 bytes, checksum: 571d1bf94d7ca9389709c2739e41339a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: A otimização determinística da operação de médio prazo de sistemas hidrotérmicos de potência é um problema não-linear de grande porte. Neste trabalho, ele é resolvido com a devida consideração das restrições de fluxo de intercâmbio energético entre os subsistemas em um único modelo. Para tanto, fez-se necessária a representação explícita do balanço energético, definido como a soma das gerações hidro e termelétrica e do intercâmbio líquido, tal que a demanda de carga seja atendida. As dificuldades algébricas e computacionais impostas pela formulação do problema são contornadas por meio de um método de pontos interiores primal-dual não-linear. Nele, é empregada busca unidimensional com filtro que, dada a implementação proposta, apesar de não garantir convergência global, mostrou-se eficaz em todas as instâncias de testes numéricos realizados, dispensando o uso de funções de mérito. A estrutura esparsa bloco-diagonal das restrições do problema é explorada com vistas à obtenção de melhor desempenho computacional. Resultados dos estudos de caso numéricos para dados reais do sistema elétrico brasileiro sob diferentes configurações são apresentados. / Abstract: This work presents the solution of the medium-term operation scheduling problem for hydrothermal power systems, a complex large-scale nonlinear problem, with consideration of power exchange between interconnected systems. This required the need to explicitly represent the power balance nonlinear equations, defined as the sum of hydro and thermal outputs, and net power imports such that load demand is attained. Algebraic and computational difficulties arisen by the problem formulation are overcome by the use of a nonlinear primal-dual interior-point line search filter method. A line search filter procedure is chosen for these are known to generally outperform penalty merit functions. Although the implementation proposed herein does not guarantee global convergence, it has shown to be very efficient for all numerical tests performed. In addition, the problem's block-constraint structure is exploited for means of improved computational efficiency. Results for diverse numerical tests applied to the Brazilian power system are shown. / Doutorado / Energia Eletrica / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

Orientadores: Sérgio Valdir Bajay, Moacyr Trindade de Oliveira Andrade / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecânica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T11:31:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dester_Mauricio_D.pdf: 5389676 bytes, checksum: 7c5e6ad30bbd780ddf1b9300f7cc4317 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A eletricidade é bem de consumo e também insumo posicionado dentre aqueles considerados essenciais para a sociedade moderna. Neste contexto, o planejamento e a construção de uma matriz de energia elétrica é questão de importância capital não somente para o setor elétrico, como também para o desenvolvimento do Brasil. A constituição desta matriz deve ser pautada, sobretudo, pelo aspecto sustentabilidade. Neste sentido, sua concepção deve, imprescindivelmente, contemplar todas as perspectivas que permeiam o processo estratégico que a origina, a saber: técnica, econômica e sócio-ambiental. Somente balizado por estas óticas é possível proporcionar a expansão da oferta de energia elétrica de forma sustentável e com segurança no que concerne ao atendimento pleno da demanda, um requisito indispensável para que este serviço possa ser um sólido sustentáculo de um processo maior: o desenvolvimento socioeconômico da sociedade brasileira. A participação das fontes renováveis na matriz de energia elétrica é fator desejável e colabora, de forma meritória no que diz respeito aos impactos ambientais decorrentes da produção de eletricidade. Todavia, há algumas questões de ordem econômica e principalmente técnica as quais devem ser tratadas e lapidadas de forma a eliminar as lacunas existentes, permitindo que se possa estabelecer planos de expansão da oferta de eletricidade sustentáveis sob todos os pontos de vista. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é proporcionar e aprofundar o debate sobre estas questões e apresentar uma solução que propicie a integração das fontes renováveis na matriz de energia elétrica brasileira mantendo a confiabilidade no atendimento da carga. Outrossim, não somente os aspectos técnico e econômico foram contemplados na análise, mas, também o socioambiental, possibilitando assim oferecer subsídios para a evolução da oferta com orientação para a sustentabilidade. Para elaboração da proposta foi realizado um estudo abrangente sobre as principais fontes primárias a partir das quais é possível produzir eletricidade, além de uma revisão de todo o extenso e complexo caminho pelo qual passou o setor de planejamento da expansão desde seus primórdios até o modelo atual. São também apresentados vários pontos de vista sobre as dificuldades encontradas pelo planejador, desde os empecilhos de ordem regulatória, passando por aqueles oriundos de uma falta de coordenação dentre os setores do governo envolvidos no problema, até as questões de ordem ambiental. Por fim, no decorrer do trabalho e particularmente ao concluí-lo, propõe-se um conjunto de medidas estratégicas por intermédio das quais se pode construir uma matriz de energia elétrica segura e sustentável e lograr êxito, sob as perspectivas técnica, econômica e socioambiental, ao se realizar o planejamento da expansão da oferta, seja no horizonte de curto, médio ou longo prazos / Abstract: Electricity is not just a consumer good but also an input which commands a place amongst those goods considered essential to modern society. In this context, the planning and construction of an electricity matrix is a question of paramount importance, not just for the electricity sector but also for Brazil's development as a whole. The establishment of this matrix should, above all, be regulated with an emphasis on sustainability. In this regard, its conception must necessarily embrace all the perspectives that imbue the strategic process that gives rise to it: technical, economic and socio-environmental. Delimited by these viewpoints alone, it is possible to provide the sustainable expansion of an electric power supply that is also secure in terms of being able to fully meet demand. This is a fundamental prerequisite to this service becoming a solid base for a larger process, namely the socio-economic development of Brazilian society. The participation of renewable energy sources in the electric energy matrix is a desirable factor and contributes laudably to the mitigation of environmental impacts resulting from the electricity generation. Nevertheless, there are several issues of an economic and mainly technical nature which have to be dealt with and refined in order to close the existing gaps and enable plans to be established, that are sustainable from all points of view, for the expansion of an electric power supply. The main aim of this study is to prompt, and study in greater depth, the debate over these issues and present a solution that delivers the integration of renewable sources into Brazil's electricity matrix while maintaining reliability of load fulfillment. Similarly, not only were the technical and economic aspects covered in the analysis but also the socio-environmental aspects, thereby making it possible to provide support for the evolution of a sustainability-oriented supply. For the purposes of drafting this proposal, a wide-ranging study was conducted of the principal primary sources from which it is possible to generate electricity, as well as a review of the long and complex path which the expansion planning sector has taken, from its outset through to the current model. Various points of view are also put forward about the difficulties encountered by the planner, ranging from the regulatory obstacles to those arising from a lack of coordination between the government sectors involved in the problem and to issues of an environmental nature. Finally, throughout the study and in particular in its conclusion, a set of strategic measures is proposed through which a secure, sustainable electricity matrix can be constructed from a technical, economic and socio-environmental perspective, which is successful in carrying out supply expansion planning in the short, medium and long term / Doutorado / Planejamento de Sistemas Energeticos / Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos