Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2016-02-01T21:46:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 GustavoCesarDeMacedoRibeiro_TESE.pdf: 2029469 bytes, checksum: b61544e336820a54501cbc7e7665d3ef (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Elisangela Moura (lilaalves@gmail.com) on 2016-02-29T22:10:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 GustavoCesarDeMacedoRibeiro_TESE.pdf: 2029469 bytes, checksum: b61544e336820a54501cbc7e7665d3ef (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-02-29T22:10:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 GustavoCesarDeMacedoRibeiro_TESE.pdf: 2029469 bytes, checksum: b61544e336820a54501cbc7e7665d3ef (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-29 / O presente trabalho objetiva analisar, em termos de classe, a composi??o social do eleitorado das candidaturas presidenciais do Partido dos Trabalhadores nas elei??es de 2002, 2006 e 2010. Tal objeto de pesquisa ? constru?do a partir de um debate cr?tico preliminar com os estudos eleitorais brasileiros recentes, especialmente da literatura sobre a influ?ncia dos programas sociais sobre o voto e das formula??es de Singer acerca do fen?meno do lulismo. Incorporando avan?os e apontando lacunas de tais esfor?os de pesquisa, ? formulado um roteiro de investiga??o emp?rica composto por tr?s elementos fundamentais - a medi??o das dimens?es da estrutura de classes do capitalismo brasileiro; a observa??o dos interesses materiais relacionados aos postos constituintes de tal estrutura; a elabora??o de medidas de associa??o entre a inser??o em grupamentos classistas e o comportamento eleitoral individual. Com base na abordagem neomarxista de an?lise de classe, especialmente a partir das formula??es de Wright, elabora-se uma adapta??o da tipologia de classes formulada por tal vertente (principalmente da vers?o elaborada por Santos ao caso brasilei ro) aos dados disponibilizados pelos bancos de dados dos Censos Demogr?ficos de 2000 e 2010. Tal construto te?rico revela que, no per?odo considerado para a an?lise, a estrutura de rela??es classistas no Brasil se tornou mais proletarizada e, consequentemente, contou com uma diminui??o das dimens?es dos postos de classe ?destitu?dos?. Em acr?scimo, verificou-se, em rela??o aos interesses objetivos classistas, incrementos difusos de bem-estar econ?mico que permitiram avan?os, no que concerne ?s condi??es materiais do proletariado, sem, todavia, incorrer em perdas ?s posi??es de classe privilegiadas. Tais mudan?as na esfera estrutural incidiram de formas diversas sobre a arena pol?tica. Com base em uma adapta??o ? analise eleitoral do conceito de ?forma??o de classe?, tamb?m formulado por Wright, al?m do recurso a t?cnicas de infer?ncia ecol?gica (especialmente as propostas por King e associados), foi poss?vel elaborar um panorama do voto de classe no per?odo estudado. Como principais resultados, foram identificados tr?s padr?es gerais de comportamento eleitoral individual, relacionados a cada um dos tr?s grupamentos classistas analisados - a contraposi??o ?s candidaturas petistas, por parte dos eleitores em localiza??es de classe privilegiadas; a ades?o, recorrente ao longo de todo o per?odo estudado, dos trabalhadores ?s candidaturas Lula e Dilma Rousseff; uma guinada eleitoral favor?vel ?quelas candidaturas, empreendida pelos eleitores economicamente destitu?dos, a partir da elei??o de 2006. / This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer?s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.

Submitted by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2017-05-26T18:11:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_DAIANE_DEPONTI_BOLZAN_COMPLETO.pdf: 1515583 bytes, checksum: 92748a7191db741b0e32e26c59cc1d85 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-26T18:11:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_DAIANE_DEPONTI_BOLZAN_COMPLETO.pdf: 1515583 bytes, checksum: 92748a7191db741b0e32e26c59cc1d85 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-29 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Funda??o de Amparo ? Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (FAPERGS) / This dissertation deals with the re-election of President Dilma in 2014 in the light of models of economic cycles incorporating federalism as an analytical element to include budgetary and voluntary transfers to municipalities. Through a Tobit model, we seek to establish whether there were changes in transfers to municipalities able to influence the vote of the government candidate. It analyzes also the ?Bolsa Fam?lia? program (PBF), regional differences, the relationship between the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores ? PT) and other parties of the ruling coalition and other sociodemographic variables impacted the vote on the candidate. As a result, the current transfers of the federal government positively impact the vote on the candidate while multigovernamentals transfers has an inverse relationship with the vote. Other important results concerning the impact of PBF in the vote of the chairman and indicates that the influence caused by the program is greatly reduced. Similarly, the relationship between the mayors and governors of the main ruling party and the other coalition parties also have no major impact on the vote on the candidate. The variables that were most important in the analysis of the candidate's vote was the vote in the 2010 election, indicating the continuation of an electoral base of the PT and the HDI showed a negative relationship with the vote on the candidate. / A presente disserta??o trata da reelei??o da Presidente Dilma no ano de 2014 ? luz dos modelos de ciclos pol?tico-econ?mico incorporando o federalismo como elemento de an?lise ao incluir as transfer?ncias or?ament?rias e volunt?rias aos munic?pios. Por meio de um modelo Tobit, procura-se estabelecer se houveram altera??es nas transfer?ncias aos munic?pios capazes de influenciar a vota??o da candidata governista. Analisa-se tamb?m se o Programa Bolsa Fam?lia, as diferen?as regionais, a rela??o entre o Partido dos Trabalhadores e os demais partidos da coliga??o governista e outras vari?veis s?cio demogr?ficas impactaram na vota??o da candidata. Obteve-se como resultado que as transfer?ncias correntes da Uni?o impactam positivamente na vota??o da candidata enquanto que as transfer?ncias multigovernamentais tem rela??o inversa com a vota??o. Outros resultados importantes dizem respeito ao impacto do PBF na vota??o da presidente e indica que a influ?ncia causada pelo programa ? bastante reduzida. Da mesma forma, a rela??o entre o prefeitos e governadores do principal partido governista e os demais partidos da coliga??o tamb?m n?o tem grande impacto na vota??o da candidata. As vari?veis que se mostraram mais importantes na an?lise da vota??o da candidata foram a vota??o na elei??o de 2010, indicando a perman?ncia de uma base eleitoral do PT e o IDH-M apresentando rela??o negativa com a vota??o da candidata.