nÃo hà / O presente trabalho busca investigar a chance de involuÃÃo financeira dentre os municÃpios cearenses, a partir dos dados contÃbeis de 150 localidades nos perÃodos de 2004, 2008 e 2012. A amostra utilizada compreende 82% do total de municÃpios no estado do Cearà e o mÃtodo utilizado segue um modelo de variÃvel dependente binÃria, com hipÃtese Probit. O modelo economÃtrico proposto considerou variÃveis de autonomia financeira, dependÃncia de transferÃncias, despesas com pessoal e encargos, gastos com educaÃÃo e gastos com saÃde. As estimativas permitem constatar que a chance à significativa de que um novo municÃpio que venha a ser criado possua arrecadaÃÃo inferior à mÃdia, sendo considerado um cenÃrio econÃmico-financeiro desfavorÃvel ao processo de emancipaÃÃo de distritos no estado do CearÃ, haja vista que os municÃpios cearenses sÃo considerados pobres e altamente dependentes de recursos de transferÃncias. / The present work search investigate the chance of financial involution among the Cearenses' municipalities, from accounting data for 150 localities in periods of 2004, 2008 and 2012. The sample comprises 82% of the total number of municipalities in the state of Cearà and the method used follows a binary dependent variable model, with Probit's hypothesis. The econometric model proposed considered variables of financial autonomy, dependence on transfers, personnel expenses and charges, education expenses and health expenses. The estimates leads us to conclude that the chance is significant in that a new municipality that will be created has fundraising less than the average, being considered a economic-financial scenario unfavorable the process of emancipation of districts in the state of CearÃ, there is a view that the Cearenses' municipalities are considered to be poor and highly dependent on features of transfers.