In this study, we aim to investigate the impact of inflation targeting (IT) and the recent global disinflation on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:1 for 51 industrial and emerging market (EM) countries. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel data estimation methods but also the recent Common Correlated Effects Pooled estimation procedure by Pesaran (2006) which allows estimating the impact of common global shocks such as global inflation. We also explore some other determinants of ERPT during the recent global disinflation period. Furthermore, we consider asymmetric effects of positive and negative output gaps as proxies for domestic demand conditions on ERPT for IT industrial and EM countries. Our results strongly suggest that, for the non-IT samples, ERPT is significantly higher in EM countries than industrial countries. For every country groups excluding Euro area countries, we find that ERPT declined substantially during the recent global disinflation period. The decline in the ERPT is, however, much higher in IT countries especially in EM ones. One striking result is the convergence of ERPT coefficients of EM countries to industrial IT countries with the adoption of IT. This supports the endogenous response of ERPT to monetary policy credibility and price stability. Consequently, a high ERPT, per se, may be interpreted as not a binding constraint for the adoption of IT as it tends to decline with the success of monetary policy regime. We also find that ERPT appears to be more sensitive to positive output gaps in IT industrial countries whilst it does not have such a response to positive or negative output gaps in IT emerging market countries.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

O presente trabalho trata do sistema internacional de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro direto e do atual papel desempenhado pelos países emergentes em sua sistematização. Para tanto, faz uma abordagem histórica do tema da proteção ao investimento estrangeiro desde a década de quarenta até os dias atuais. Ressaltam-se as divergências históricas de entendimento mantidas entre países desenvolvidos (usualmente exportadores de capital) e países em desenvolvimento (historicamente importadores de capital) no que pertine ao nível de proteção que deve ser garantido ao investidor estrangeiro. Após, faz uma análise dos instrumentos internacionais de proteção ao investimento estrangeiro construídos especialmente durante as décadas de setenta e noventa e demonstra que o conteúdo desses instrumentos baseou-se na supremacia do entendimento dos países desenvolvidos. Em momento posterior, analisa o surgimento dos países emergentes como nações exportadoras de capital a partir da década de noventa e como esses países estão conciliando, por meio da assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento, a intenção de manter a soberania sobre seus assuntos internos e o interesse de proteger seus investidores no exterior. Por fim, retrata a tradicional posição brasileira com relação ao investimento estrangeiro direto e apresenta alguns contributos para futuras reflexões, baseados especialmente na atual postura adotada por outros países emergentes no que diz respeito à assinatura de tratados bilaterais de investimento. / This paper deals with the international law on foreign direct investment and the current role played by emerging market countries on this matter. In this sense, it presents a historical approach on the protection of foreign investment from the 1940’s onwards. It focuses on the historical disagreements between developed countries (usually capital-exporting countries) and developing countries (historically capitalimporting countries) in what regards the level of protection that must be accorded to a foreign investor. Moreover, it discusses the international instruments for the protection of foreign investment designed between the 1970s and the 1990s and demonstrates that the content of such instruments is based primarily on the developed countries’ understanding of the issue. Furthermore, it analyses the rise of emerging market countries as capital exporting countries since the 1990s and how they are reconciling the will to keep their sovereignty over internal affairs and the willingness to protect their investors abroad through bilateral investment treaties. Finally, it discusses the traditional view held by Brazil on the protection of foreign direct investment and presents some contributions for further research on this issue, with an emphasis on other emerging market countries current attitude towards the signing of bilateral investment treaties.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de mieux appréhender les déterminants du risque souverain et de la soutenabilité budgétaire des pays émergents, afin d’identifier les éléments qui permettraient à ces pays de se protéger d’un tel risque. Nous mettons en place des outils économétriques et théoriques adaptés aux particularités de ces pays. Ces derniers sont ensuite déclinés pour tenter d’anticiper les épisodes de défaut souverain sévère via un modèle à changement de régime de type "early warning", pour effectuer des simulations stochastiques de ratio de dette souveraine à moyen-terme et évaluer les effets de politiques budgétaires définies à cet horizon et enfin, pour caractériser la distribution du ratio de dette externe de ces pays. Cette thèse entend ainsi identifier les pays qui semblent les plus exposés au risque souverain et définir des recommandations de politique économique qui prennent en compte l’hétérogénéité au sein du «bloc» des pays émergents et au cours du temps. / The objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the determinants of sovereign default and medium-term sustainability inemerging market countries, so as to define ways through which they may protect themselves from these sovereign risks. We provide econometric tools and a theoretical model that are adapted to these countries’ specific features. This aims to anticipate severe sovereign default episodes through a regime switching early-warning type model, to assess medium-term public debt prospects and the impact of defined fiscal policies through stochastic debt simulations and to characterize the distribution of the external debt ratio of emerging market countries. It eventually enables to identify the countries that are the most exposed to sovereign risk and to draw up a set of policy recommendations, allowing for a differentiation within this heterogeneous block of countries and through time.