I present a simple model of an evolutionary financial market with heterogeneous agents, based on the concept of adaptive belief systems introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997a). Agents choose between different forecast rules based on past performance, resulting in an evolutionary dynamics across predictor choice coupled to the equilibrium dynamics. The model generates endogenous price fluctuations with similar statistical properties as those observed in real return data, such as fat tails and volatility clustering. These similarities are demonstrated for data from the British, German, and Austrian stock market. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

The prices of technological equipment have seen significant declines in recent decades. In Chapter 2 of this thesis, we examine the evidence and causes of these price declines. Among several factors, we focus on the learning curve effect where the cost of producing technological equipment declines as the cumulative number of produced units increases. In Chapter 3 we review the literature on technology adoption and the timing decisions of such adoptions. We aim to contribute to the literature by examining the timing of technology adoption under price declines. Furthermore, we consider the effect of human capital on such adoption decisions. We begin in Chapter 4 by developing a model of the timing of technology adoption under an exogenous price decline. Section 1 considers a single price drop in followed by multiple price drops in section 2. From the analytical results developed in these sections, we examine the effect of human capital on the adoption decision. Chapter 5 considers the price of the technological equipment to be endogenous to the model. We run computational experiments to demonstrate the declining price as a function of time. We examine the effect of the distribution of human capital on the price decline and adoption decision of the individuals of the population. We conclude with insights on the relationship between human capital inequality and technology adoption decisions.

The primary objective of this study was to develop an empirical model that accounts for factors affecting the demand for international tourist hotels, and that enables demand estimation and projection of demand, in the context of the metropolitan Seoul area. Models were hypothesized to explain market behavior of selected segments of the hotel industry. Demand Model I accounted for international hotel demand incorporating such explanatory variables as price, trade volume and events. Both demand and price were treated as endogenous variables and the time-dependent error processes were all examined. Demand Model I was further expanded by incorporating segmentation variables. The inclusion of segmentation variables into the model in Demand Model II enabled the analysis of the interdependence of market segments that affects demand. Along with the incorporation of a time series structure, a system of equations was employed for Demand Model II. The results indicated that the explanatory variables, which were own price, the number of events and the volume of trade, had a significant impact on international hotel demand. The results from the demand equations also revealed that the demand for a segment is significantly influenced by price and demand for other segments. A cross-segment substitution effect on the demand side is quite relevant for the international lodging market in Seoul and demand for a market segment fluctuates in the same direction as the total market demand changes. From the price equations, the market price of lodging services was found to be related to demand and supply influences simultaneously. The results also indicated that seasonality and economic factors, such as exchange rates and consumer price index, have significant influence directly on international lodging prices. Such factors also were found to have indirect effects on the demand level. / Ph. D.

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