Includes bibliographical references. / In this thesis, the energy sector of the Central Africa region is investigated with a special attention to Zaire. The region's political trends, economic performance, demographic and social patterns as well as their implications in the development of the energy sector are presented. For each country of the region the resource potential and the ability to produce, distribute and use these energy resources, are analyzed. The potential for the development of energy resources of the region is examined and its future energy demand forecast. The scope for energy interchange inside and outside the region is analyzed and regional integration in the energy sector discussed. The findings of this thesis are: * there is an abundance of energy resources though not evenly distributed throughout the region, * there is a heavy reliance on woodfuel, and * there are many problems constraining the development of the energy sector. The principal issues facing the energy sector are: *the shortage of woodfuel due to the non-sustainability of supply, *the low reliability of power supply and the existence of surplus capacity in some countries, *the high supply cost of petroleum products, *the limited size of the local commercial fuel market and the lack of finance to develop domestic energy resources, *the low level of management and financial autonomy for energy utilities, *the lack of energy trade because of political instability, and institutional shortcomings. Forecasts of future energy consumption in the region indicate that woodfuel will continue to be the dominant energy form, followed by oil and electricity, and that electricity will play an increasing role. Recommendations for the woodfuel subsector relates to improving the production and utilization efficiency - valid also for the other energy carriers, increasing the supply through reforestation programmes and accelerating electrification. Other recommendations to improve the development of the energy sector include: * recovering energy supply cost through adequate pricing and improved collection practices, * reducing government interference and introducing private participation in the energy sector with the subsequent benefit of the transfer of new technology and managerial competence, and * strengthening energy institutions to enable them to improve planning, implementations, operations, and ensure the integration of traditional and commercial energy structures . The possibilities of energy interchange are large for oil and electricity, and energy trade could improve energy utilization, lower supply costs, etc. Under prevailing socio-economic conditions, regional integration is thought to be the only realistic strategy leading to the economic exploitation of energy resources and the adequate supply of energy to support industrial development of the region and to meet the social needs of its people. In this connection, major efforts should be directed towards the establishment of appropriate regional energy institutions, but political stability is a prerequisite to any effective energy integration.

The energy system is today facing a major double issue: the shrinking of easily accessible and cheap fossil resources on the upstream side, and climate change on the downstream side. Energy policies must integrate this double physical constraint, as well as other physical limits, and have a long time and a global horizon, in order to anticipate and avoid a future energy and climate crisis that could be dramatic to society. However, politics tend to focus on other aspects (satisfying immediate social desires for instance).This report hence discusses options available to allow for a better consideration of physical constraints in energy policies design. As they strongly rely on energy scenarios, it appears that energy policy makers need a more transparent and didactic frame for scenario design and analysis. That is why The Shift Project has been developing an original, transparent and pedagogical energy scenario modeling tool, Rogeaulito, which is intended to highlight physical constraints. By developing narratives (quantified stories) and organizing and animating workshops with policy makers, using Rogeaulito, it is possible to convey messages and knowledge about the energy system and issues, and improve the policy making process. Nevertheless, policy makers remain subject to socio-political influences and to self-interest concerns, which can prevent them from making socially optimal choices on the long term. Therefore, the civil society as a whole must be included in a continuous and coherent debate to improve the common understanding of energy issues, of the (physical, cultural and psychological) obstacles to solving them and of concrete consequences of the possible choices. It will then be possible to give a democratic, legitimate and collaborative orientation to long term energy policies. At the end, it appears that a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach, involving physics, environmental science, economics, technology, sociology, political science and psychology is required to finally produce energy policies appropriate in order to face the issues mentioned above.

"Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in European Union" by Sergey Balitskiy Abstract: The objective of this Master thesis is an evaluation of relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Europe. The sample includes panel time series data over the period from 1997 to 2011 for 26 EU member states (countries of the Euro zone). Based on neoclassical growth model, a multivariate model including gross fixed capital formation and total labor forces of a country as additional explanatory variables was created. Using recent econometric techniques: panel cointegration tests and error correction modeling, it was found that there existed long-run relationship between economic growth, natural gas consumption, labor and capital. In addition, it was investigated that in the short-run there existed bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth. It appears that the causality between economic growth and the natural gas consumption is positive. On the other hand, the reverse causality (a relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth) appears to be negative.

Recent literature has shown a close correlation between economic prosperity and the intensity of energy use in a country. In this study, an investigation to determine the extent of evolution of the concept of sustainability in the energy industry to realise the aim of Kenya Vision 2030 development blueprint is presented. In this study, journals, government reports, statutes and policies dating back to the end of the eighteenth century were reviewed to establish the research gap. Interviewing of key stakeholders in the energy industry a survey of rural, peri-urban and urban households on energy use and supply in the country and a geographical information system were methods used for data analysis. The study findings revealed that; the current energy policies are a legacy of colonial policies which benefit the urban and commercial centres along the railway line; the current policies are skewed to promoting electricity and petroleum sectors in energy industry and; biomass is the main source of fuel for rural and peri-urban households and, increased household energy demand has a negative impact on environment. In light of these findings, the practice of energy use and policies have to evolve significantly so that the aim of the Vision 2030 has to be realised. Therefore, this study is an innovative, analytical and methodological approach to sustainable energy use and policy assessment for developing countries. The study also makes contribution to the body of knowledge in the field of sustainable energy use and policies for developing countries by literature publication.

The thesis compares and analyses the development of production/consumption of energy in the EU28, in selected countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia), and especially in the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the context of accepting and development (change) of energy policies. The main aspect of the work was to analyze trends in energy consumption and (in) dependence, structure of energy production/consumption, particularly with the application potential of alternative energy sources and energy savings. This thesis confirmed that there are significant differences in achieving the main objectives of EU energy policy among states. Statistical (correlation) analysis did not confirmed a significant dependence between the energy (in) dependence, the energy saving rates and the share of alternative energy sources. Synthetic index of energy change has evaluated Hungary and Slovakia from selected countries with the best energy progress since 2004. It was not proved that Slovakia or Czech Republic have a consistent long-term energy policy that they would explicitly followed. Key words: energy policy, energy savings, energy consumption, energy dependence, European Union

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para análise do comportamento dinâmico da inserção da micro e minigeração solar fotovoltaica em redes de distribuição de energia elétrica. O modelo é desenvolvido com aplicação da técnica de análise e modelagem de Dinâmica de Sistemas, resultando em uma ferramenta eficiente para o auxílio na tomada de decisão e na elaboração de políticas quanto ao estímulo dos sistemas de geração fotovoltaica. O modelo desenvolvido testa as políticas, através da construção de cenários, que possibilitam ao consumidor à tomada de decisão, quanto ao investimento na micro geração, a partir dos contextos regulatório e de mercado. O modelo avalia a tomada de decisão dos consumidores quanto ao investimento em fontes de micro geração fotovoltaica englobando não apenas fatores técnicos e econômicos, mas também fatores sociais e ambientais. O modelo fornece, também, uma projeção do potencial de energia fotovoltaica associada à micro e minigeração, e permite verificar a ação da “death spiral” (espiral da morte) sobre o faturamento de distribuidoras. Diversos incentivos são implementados e investigados no sentido de promover essa tecnologia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que políticas como a criação da tarifa prêmio, em conjunto com a redução do ICMS incidente sobre a energia gerada pelo prosumidor (consumidor/gerador) e a veiculação publicitária sobre a micro geração podem alavancar o uso destas fontes no contexto energético global. / This dissertation presents an innovative method for analyzing the dynamic behavior of a multi-variable system that models the several aspects of photovoltaic solar micro generation penetration in distribution networks. The proposed model is based on the System Dynamics approach in order to test the policies through multi-criterial scenarios, including the consumer's decision-making to invest in renewable sources considering regulatory and market contexts. In addition to technical and economic aspects, social and environmental criteria are also taken into account in modelling the consumer’s decision-making. The model also provide a projection of energy photovoltaic associated with micro and minigeneration and allows to verify the action of detah spiral on distributors revenue. Several incentives are proposed and evaluated as alternatives to promote photovoltaic generation the technology. The presented model has shown as an effective tool to support the decision-making for both consumers and policymakers. Results show that policies such as feed-in tariff along with the reduction of Value-Added Tax (VAT) on generated energy may greatly promote the use of these sources in the energy market.

Industrial energy efficiency is one of the most important means of reducing the threat of increased global warming. A higheruse of electricity than their European competitors, together with increased energy costs due to increasing energy prices in Swedish industry have negative impacts on results and competitiveness. Of great importance are thus different means which promote energy efficiency such as industrial energy policy instruments. However, cost-effective energy efficiency measuresare not always undertaken. In order to formulate and adopt accurate industrial energy end-use polices, it is thus of importanceto identify the barriers that inhibit the implementation of cost-effective energy efficiency measures. It is also of importance to identify the factors which promote the implementation. The aim of this thesis is to analyze industrial energy systems andmore specifically study factors that promote or inhibit energy end-use efficiency in Swedish industrial companies. Results from this thesis show that the implementation of technical energy efficiency measures is a major means for both energy-intensive and non-energy-intensive Swedish companies to overcome the threat of rising energy prices, for example for electricity. While energy efficiency measures in the non-energy-intensive industry are related mainly to support processes, measures in the studied energy-intensive Swedish foundry industry are related to both support and production processes. In the various case studies of barriers and driving forces, the most significant barriers to energy efficiency - with largevariations for some of the barriers among the studied cases - were found to be: technical risk such as risk of productiondisruptions; lack of time or other priorities; lack of access to capital; cost of production disruption/hassle/inconvenience; other priorities for capital investments; technology considered inappropriate at the site; difficulty/cost of obtaininginformation about the energy use of purchased equipment; and lack of budget funding. The largest driving forces, apart fromcost reductions resulting from lowered energy use, were found to be the existence of a long-term energy strategy and peoplewith real ambition. These driving forces did not, unlike the results of barriers to energy efficiency, vary widely across thestudied sectors. Investment decision support such as optimization has shown to add more information for larger capital-intensive investmentsin energy-intensive industrial SMEs. The thesis also showed that energy audits are an effective means, in terms of publicmoney spent per kWh saved, of providing the industry with information on potential energy efficiency measures. Based on the results presented in this thesis, a policy approach towards non-energy-intensive companies and industrial SMEsshould primarily include providing energy audits free of charge and involve the local authority energy consultants. / Industriell energieffektivisering är ett av de viktigaste sätten att reducera hotet om en globaluppvärmning. En högre relativ elanvändning, i jämförelse med europeiska konkurrenter, tillsammans med stigande energikostnader beroende av stigande energipriser för den svenskaindustrin, riskerar leda till försämrad lönsamhet och försämrad konkurrenskraft. Det är såledesav stor vikt att främja energieffektivisering, exempelvis genom olika typer av styrmedel. Lönsamma energieffektiviseringsåtgärder genomförs emellertid inte alltid, till följd av olikahinder för energieffektivisering. För att kunna formulera precisa styrmedel är det därför avstor vikt att dessa hinder som förhindrar implementering av energieffektiviserande åtgärder,identifieras. Det är också av stor vikt att identifiera drivkrafterna. Syftet med denna avhandling är att analysera industriella energisystem och mera specifikt studera faktorer somfrämjar och förhindrar effektiv slutanvändning av energi i svensk industri. Resultaten visar att hotet om stigande energikostnader, exempelvis beträffande elektricitet,både för icke energiintensiv och för energiintensiv svensk tillverkningsindustri, kan reduceraskraftigt om energieffektiv teknik implementeras. Medan åtgärder i icke energiintensiv industrifrämst är relaterade till stödprocesser så visar sig åtgärderna i den studerade svenska energiintensiva gjuteriindustrin vara relaterade till både stöd- och produktionsprocesser. I fallstudierna beträffande hinder och drivkrafter visade sig de största hindren vara - med storavariationer mellan fallen - tekniska risker såsom risk för produktionsstörningar och avbrott; brist på tid/andra prioriteringar; brist på kapital; kostnader för produktionsstörningar; ickeenergirelaterade investeringar prioriteras högre; tekniken passar ej för företaget;svårigheter/kostnader att erhålla korrekt information beträffande energianvändningen av deninköpta utrustningen; och brist på budgetmedel. De största drivkrafterna var, utöver kostnadsminskningar till följd av minskad energianvändning, förekomsten av en långsiktigenergistrategi och en eldsjäl. Drivkrafterna varierade inte, till skillnad mot hindren, så mycketmellan de olika undersökta fallen. Beslutsstöd såsom exempelvis optimering har visat sig kunna ge ökad information vid störremer kapitalintensiva investeringar i energiintensiva små- och medelstora företag. Vidare har energianalyser visat sig vara ett effektivt sätt, i termer av besparad kWh per statligt insattkrona, att ge industrin information beträffande möjliga energieffektiviserande åtgärder. Resultat från avhandlingen indikerar att ett stöd gentemot icke energiintensiva och små och medelstora företag framförallt bör inkludera statligt finansierade energianalyser med denlokala energirådgivaren som en deltagande aktör.

Global warming, in combination with increasing energy demand and higher energy prices, makes it necessary to change the energy use. To secure the energy supply and to develop sustainable societies, construction of energy-efficient systems is at the same time most vital. The aim of this thesis is therefore to identify how a local energy company, producing district heating (DH), district cooling (DC) and electricity in combined heat and power (CHP) plants, can contribute to resource-efficient energy systems and cost-effective reductions of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, along with its customers. Analyses have been performed on how a local energy company can optimise their DH and DC production and what supply-side and demand-side measures can lead to energy-efficient systems in combination with economic and climate change benefits. The energy company in focus is located in Linköping, Sweden. Optimisation models, such as MODEST and reMIND, have been used for analysing the energy systems. Scenario and sensitivity analyses have also been performed for evaluation of the robustness of the energy systems studied. For all analyses a European energy system perspective was applied, where a fully deregulated European electricity market with no bottlenecks or other system failures was assumed. In this thesis it is concluded that of the DH-supply technologies studied, the biomass gasification applications and the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) CHP are the technologies with the largest global CO2 reduction potential, while the biomass-fuelled plant that only produces heat is the investment with the smallest global CO2 reduction and savings potential. However, the global CO2 reduction potential for the biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC) CHP and NGCC CHP, the two technologies with highest electricity efficiencies, is highly dependent on the assumptions made about marginal European electricity production. Regarding the effect on the DH system cost the gasification application integrated with production of renewable biofuels (SNG) for the transport sector is the investment option with the largest savings potential for lower electricity prices, while with increasing electricity prices the BIGCC and NGCC CHP plants are the most cost-effective investment options. The economic outcome for biomass gasification applications is, however, dependent on the level of policy instruments for biofuels and renewable electricity. Moreover, it was shown that the tradable green certificates for renewable electricity can, when applied to DH systems, contribute to investments that will not fully utilise the DH systems’ potential for global CO2 emissions reductions. Also illustrated is that conversion of industrial processes, utilising electricity and fossil fuels, to DH and DC can contribute to energy savings. Since DH is mainly used for space heating, the heat demand for DH systems is strongly outdoor temperature-dependent. By converting industrial processes, where the heat demand is often dependent on process hours instead of outdoor temperature, the heat loads in DH systems can become more evenly distributed over the year, with increased base-load heat demand and increased electricity generation in CHP plants as an outcome. This extra electricity production, in combination with the freed electricity when converting electricity-using processes to DH, can replace marginal electricity production in the European electricity market, resulting in reduced global CO2 emissions. Demonstrated in this thesis is that the local energy company, along with its customers, can contribute to reaching the European Union’s targets of reducing energy use and decreasing CO2 emissions. This can be achieved in a manner that is cost-effective to both the local energy company and the customers. / Den globala uppvärmningen i kombination med ett ökat energibehov och stigande energipriser gör det nödvändigt att förändra energianvändningen. Energieffektiva system är samtidigt en förutsättning för att kunna säkra energitillförseln och utveckla hållbara samhällen. Fjärrvärme har en viktig roll att fylla i den här omställningen. I fjärrvärmesystemen kan värmeresurser som annars kan vara svåra att nyttiggöras, som till exempel spillvärme och förbränning av avfall tas tillvara. Fjärrvärme kan även bidra till elproduktion i kraftvärmeverk där totalverkningsgraden är högre än vid separat el- respektive värmeproduktion. En omställning av energisystemet till en ökad användning av fjärrvärme och minskad användning av el genom effektiviseringar och konverteringar från olja och el till fjärrvärme kan bidra till att skapa energieffektiva system. Syftet med den här avhandlingen är att identifiera hur ett lokalt energibolag som producerar fjärrvärme, fjärrkyla och el i kraftvärmeverk kan bidra till att skapa energieffektiva system och kostnadseffektiva globala koldioxidreduktioner tillsammans med sina kunder. Det energibolag som framförallt har studerats i den här avhandlingen är Tekniska Verken i Linköping AB. För att optimera energibolagets fjärrvärme- och fjärrkylaproduktion har energisystemanalyser genomförts, där både åtgärder på tillförsel- och användarsidan har studerats. Genom att se energiförsörjningen ur ett systemperspektiv kan man undvika att ekonomiska och miljömässiga vinster vid en anläggning ersätts av förluster någon annanstans. Optimeringsmodeller, som MODEST och reMIND, har använts för energisystemanalyserna där även scenarier och känslighetsanalyser har inkluderats. För alla energisystemanalyser har ett europeiskt energisystemperspektiv använts där en totalt avreglerad europeisk elmarknad utan flaskhalsar eller andra systemfel antagits. Slutsatser från analyserna är att det lokala energibolaget kan bidra till kostnadseffektiva globala koldioxidreduktioner genom ett effektivt nyttjande av bränslen i kraftvärmeanläggningar och i bioraffinaderier. Speciellt kraftvärmeanläggningar med hög elverkningsgrad, som t.ex. biomasseförgasning- och naturgaskombianläggningar, har en betydande global koldioxidreduktionspotential. Även biomasseförgasningsanläggningar som är integrerade med produktion av förnybara drivmedel för transportsektorn har visat sig kostnadseffektiva med stor potential att reducera de globala koldioxidutsläppen. Styrmedel har dock en stor påverkan på det ekonomiska utfallet för förgasningsanläggningarna. Dessutom har studierna visat att energibesparingar kan åstadkommas genom att konvertera el och fossilbränsledrivna industriella processer till fjärrvärme och fjärrkyla. Eftersom fjärrvärme framförallt används för lokaluppvärmning är värmelasten i fjärrvärmesystem säsongsbetonad. Genom att konvertera industriella processer som inte är utetemperaturberoende till fjärrvärme kan fjärrvärmelasten bli mindre säsongsbetonad och mer jämt fördelad över året. En jämt fördelad värmelast är fördelaktig för driften av fjärrvärmeanläggningar och kan bidra till mer elproduktion i kraftvärmeanläggningar. Den extra elproduktionen, tillsammans med den el som blivit tillgänglig efter konvertering av eldrivna processer till fjärrvärme, kan ersätta europeisk marginalelsproduktion vilket kan reducera de globala koldioxidutsläppen. Det som har framkommit av dessa studier är att det lokala energibolaget, tillsammans med sina kunder, kan bidra till att uppfylla de mål den Europeiska Unionen har angående reduktionen av energianvändningen och koldioxidutsläppen. Dessutom kan detta ske på ett kostnadseffektivt sätt för både energibolaget och dess kunder.

This thesis is about the work of Nordel, an advisory body set up in 1963 by the largest power companies in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The purpose of Nordel was to strengthen and consolidate Nordic cooperation in the production and transmission of electrical power. The analysis has been conducted by using Elinor Ostrom’s framework for studying common-pool resources, which is described in her book Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action (1990). The thesis concludes that Nordel reaffirmed the bilateral practises already established by the individual power companies and was circumscribed by national energy policies. Nordel’s main contribution to the Nordic cooperation was to act as a forum for common technical issues and general aims, and as a knowledge-producing organisation.

Este trabalho apresenta um modelo para análise do comportamento dinâmico da inserção da micro e minigeração solar fotovoltaica em redes de distribuição de energia elétrica. O modelo é desenvolvido com aplicação da técnica de análise e modelagem de Dinâmica de Sistemas, resultando em uma ferramenta eficiente para o auxílio na tomada de decisão e na elaboração de políticas quanto ao estímulo dos sistemas de geração fotovoltaica. O modelo desenvolvido testa as políticas, através da construção de cenários, que possibilitam ao consumidor à tomada de decisão, quanto ao investimento na micro geração, a partir dos contextos regulatório e de mercado. O modelo avalia a tomada de decisão dos consumidores quanto ao investimento em fontes de micro geração fotovoltaica englobando não apenas fatores técnicos e econômicos, mas também fatores sociais e ambientais. O modelo fornece, também, uma projeção do potencial de energia fotovoltaica associada à micro e minigeração, e permite verificar a ação da “death spiral” (espiral da morte) sobre o faturamento de distribuidoras. Diversos incentivos são implementados e investigados no sentido de promover essa tecnologia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que políticas como a criação da tarifa prêmio, em conjunto com a redução do ICMS incidente sobre a energia gerada pelo prosumidor (consumidor/gerador) e a veiculação publicitária sobre a micro geração podem alavancar o uso destas fontes no contexto energético global. / This dissertation presents an innovative method for analyzing the dynamic behavior of a multi-variable system that models the several aspects of photovoltaic solar micro generation penetration in distribution networks. The proposed model is based on the System Dynamics approach in order to test the policies through multi-criterial scenarios, including the consumer's decision-making to invest in renewable sources considering regulatory and market contexts. In addition to technical and economic aspects, social and environmental criteria are also taken into account in modelling the consumer’s decision-making. The model also provide a projection of energy photovoltaic associated with micro and minigeneration and allows to verify the action of detah spiral on distributors revenue. Several incentives are proposed and evaluated as alternatives to promote photovoltaic generation the technology. The presented model has shown as an effective tool to support the decision-making for both consumers and policymakers. Results show that policies such as feed-in tariff along with the reduction of Value-Added Tax (VAT) on generated energy may greatly promote the use of these sources in the energy market.