Die wesentlichen sozio-ökonomischen Prozesse, die die vermehrten anthropogenen CO₂-Emissionen verursachen, können durch die Determinanten Bevölkerung, Wohlstand (Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf) und Technologie (Energie- und Kohlenstoffintensität) vereinfacht beschrieben werden. Der Einfluss dieser Determinanten auf die Emissionsänderungen ist nicht für alle Länder der Erde gleich.<br /> Zeitreihen der CO₂-Emissionen aus der Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger, der Bevölkerung, des Bruttoinlandsproduktes und des Primärenergieverbrauches von 121 Ländern bilden die Grundlage für das entwickelte statistische Verfahren zur schrittweisen Informationsverdichtung, mit dem der gesamte Datenraum zu 6 energiewirtschaftlichen Ländertypen schrittweise zusammengefasst wird.<br /> Zur Beschreibung dieser Ländertypen wird mit Hilfe der Dekompositionsanalyse der Einfluss der Bevölkerungs-, der Wohlstands- und der Technologiekomponenten an den Emissionsänderungen quantifiziert. Die Ländertypen können vereinfacht als Repräsentanten unterschiedlicher Entwicklungsstufen und -richtungen angesehen werden. Sie bilden unter anderem eine Grundlage für die Weiterentwicklung und Kalibrierung regionalisierter makro-ökonomischer Modelle zu den sozio-ökonomischen Hintergründen der vermehrten anthropogenen CO₂-Emissionen. / The principal socio-economic processes that cause the increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide can be modeled by the variables population, affluence (gross domestic product per capita) and technology (energy intensity and carbon intensity). The impact of these variables on the changes of the CO₂ emissions is not the same for all countries of the earth.<br /> Time series of carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil energies, population, gross domestic product and of primary energy supply of 121 countries were analyzed. A statistical method for the stepwise aggregation of these data into six classes of countries according to their energy use profile.<br>The impact of population, affluence and technology components on the changes of the emissions of carbon dioxide is quantified by decomposition analysis. The classes of countries according to their energy use profile can be regarded as representative of different states and of different paths of development. These classes are also a basis for the elaboration and calibration of regionalized macro economic models to analyze the socio economic determinants of the increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

Two weeks before the Copenhagen summit on climate change, China officially made a pledge to cut its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 level by 2020. The thesis has tried to look into the quality and quantity concern of this pledge made by the biggest CO2 emitter in the world. From the existing projections on China’s business as usual (BAU) scenarios to 2020, there are no unanimous conclusions showing whether there is additionality in China’s pledge to reduce 40-45% of its carbon intensity between 2005 and 2020. Further analysis on selected results, we have found scenarios of two frequently cited authorities, namely IEA and EIA are, to some extent, misinterpreted regarding their references/current policies scenarios. On the other hand, several more typical BAU scenarios, like Garnaut’s and ReMIND-R, predicted much lower than 40% reduction rate in the period of 2005-2020. China’s pledge seems achievable with certain extra effort, comparing with historical pathways of several OECD countries, including U.S., Japan, Germany, and Korea. The average period in these four countries to go through China’s abatement path is around 21 years. From a global prospect, China’s pledge is impressive but not enough to address the climate change issue. The biggest uncertainty inherited in the pledge is the uncertain peak year of absolute emissions. The critical movement beyond 2020 pledge is to peak its absolute CO2 emissions as early as possible. Such a challenging target shall be set as no later than 2030 according to our overviews on the related literature.