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Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Agricultural Economics / Jeff Peterson / This dissertation is composed of three chapters each investigating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for water pollution. The first chapter looks at downstream dependence, the second chapter looks at the effect water abundance has on an EKC for water pollution, and the third chapter looks at different ways to control for population across countries in an EKC empirical model. Of particular note a theoretical model is developed in the first chapter that links directly with the empirical EKC model and marginal effects of consumption and effort on pollution are derived. This model specification may be particularly useful in future EKC studies. In general, there is some evidence of an EKC although it appears to depend on the country.

Thesis advisor: Frank Gollop / Can an emissions tax reduce the carbon footprint of U.S. domestic air travel without hurting the vitality of the industry? This empirical analysis models the U.S. domestic airline industry using a structural equations system and simulates the effects of a hypothetical carbon emissions tax on the market for U.S. air travel. The price elasticity of demand for air travel in the long-haul U.S. domestic passenger market substantiates that a low level environmental policy would not cause unmanageable harm to the airlines or consumers. This thesis is a practical, quantitative analysis of the feasibility of an environmental policy for U.S. aviation. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2011. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

<p> Waste disposal has always been one of the challenging aspects of human life mostly in populated areas. In every urban region, various factors can impact both amount and composition of the generated waste, and these factors might depend on a series of parameters. Therefore, developing a predictive model for waste generation has always been challenging. We believe that one main problem that city planners and policymakers face is a lack of an accurate yet easy-to-use predictive model for the waste production of a given municipality. It would be vital for them, especially during business downturns, to access a reliable predictive model that can be employed in planning resources and allocating budget. However, most developed models are complicated and extensive. The objective of this research is to study the trend of solid waste generation in Philadelphia with respect to business cycle indicators, population growth, current policies and environmental awareness, and to develop a satisfactory predictive model for waste generation. </p><p> Three predictive models were developed using time series analysis, stationary and nonstationary multiple linear regressions. The nonstationary OLS model was just used for comparison purposes and does not have any modeling value. Among the other two developed predictive models, the multiple linear regression model with stationary variables yielded the most accurate predictions for both total and municipal solid waste generation of Philadelphia. Despite its unsatisfactory statistics (R-square, p-value, and F-value), stationary OLS model could predict Philadelphia&rsquo;s waste generation with a low level of approximately 9% error. Although time series modeling demonstrated a less successful prediction comparing to the stationary OLS model (25% error for total solid waste, and 10.7% error for municipal waste predictions), it would be a more reliable method based on its model statistics. The common variable used in all three developed models which made our modeling different from the Streets Department&rsquo;s estimations was unemployment rate. Including an economic factor such as unemployment rate in modeling the waste generation could be helpful especially during economic downturns, in which economic factors can dominate the effects of population growth on waste generation. </p><p> A prediction of waste generation may not only help waste management sector in landfill and waste-to-energy facilities planning but it also provides the basis for a good estimation of its future environmental impacts. In future, we are hoping to predict related environmental trends such as greenhouse gas emissions using our predictive model.</p>

This thesis covers three issues: the aggregate and welfare effects of environmental policies when plants are heterogeneous; what causes the different patterns of employment dynamics in small versus large firms over business cycles; and the welfare costs of expected and unexpected inflation. In the first chapter, we show that accounting for plant heterogeneity is important for the evaluation of environmental policies. We develop a general equilibrium model in which monopolistic competitive plants differ in productivity, produce differentiated goods and choose optimally a discrete emission-reduction technology. Emission-reduction policies affect both the fraction of plants adopting the advanced emission-reduction technology and the market shares of those with high levels of productivity. Calibrated to the Canadian data, the model shows that the aggregate costs of an emission tax to implement the Kyoto Protocol are 40 percent larger than the costs that would result with homogenous plants. In the second chapter, we incorporate labor search frictions into a model with lumpy investment to explain a set of firm-size-related facts about the United States labor market dynamics over business cycles. Contrary to the predictions of standard models, we observe that job destruction is procyclical in small firms but countercyclical in large ones. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model generates this asymmetric pattern of employment dynamics in small versus large firms. This is because a favorable aggregate productivity shock tightens the labor market. A tighter labor market hurts investing small firms. As a result, workers move from small to large firms during booms. In the third chapter, we analyze the welfare costs of inflation when money is essential to facilitate trades among anonymous agents and information about nominal shocks is incomplete as in Lucas (1972). In the model, the transactions in which money is essential coincide with those in which agents are affected by monetary shocks. Consequently, the average value of money and its variation in value in different markets affect agents simultaneously when the supply of money changes. Calibrated to U.S. data, we find that the welfare costs of expected inflation are almost three orders higher than the welfare costs of unexpected inflation.

This thesis covers three issues: the aggregate and welfare effects of environmental policies when plants are heterogeneous; what causes the different patterns of employment dynamics in small versus large firms over business cycles; and the welfare costs of expected and unexpected inflation. In the first chapter, we show that accounting for plant heterogeneity is important for the evaluation of environmental policies. We develop a general equilibrium model in which monopolistic competitive plants differ in productivity, produce differentiated goods and choose optimally a discrete emission-reduction technology. Emission-reduction policies affect both the fraction of plants adopting the advanced emission-reduction technology and the market shares of those with high levels of productivity. Calibrated to the Canadian data, the model shows that the aggregate costs of an emission tax to implement the Kyoto Protocol are 40 percent larger than the costs that would result with homogenous plants. In the second chapter, we incorporate labor search frictions into a model with lumpy investment to explain a set of firm-size-related facts about the United States labor market dynamics over business cycles. Contrary to the predictions of standard models, we observe that job destruction is procyclical in small firms but countercyclical in large ones. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model generates this asymmetric pattern of employment dynamics in small versus large firms. This is because a favorable aggregate productivity shock tightens the labor market. A tighter labor market hurts investing small firms. As a result, workers move from small to large firms during booms. In the third chapter, we analyze the welfare costs of inflation when money is essential to facilitate trades among anonymous agents and information about nominal shocks is incomplete as in Lucas (1972). In the model, the transactions in which money is essential coincide with those in which agents are affected by monetary shocks. Consequently, the average value of money and its variation in value in different markets affect agents simultaneously when the supply of money changes. Calibrated to U.S. data, we find that the welfare costs of expected inflation are almost three orders higher than the welfare costs of unexpected inflation.

<p>This dissertation examines the potential of information-provision in motivating behavior that reduces human exposure to arsenic in drinking-water in Bangladesh. In chapter 2, the longer-term effects of the countrywide arsenic-testing and information-program are examined by tracking tube-well switching behavior of households over a five-year period. Chapter 3 focuses on the effects of arsenic information communication formats on tube-well switching behavior, by employing a randomized field experiment. In chapter 4, an instrumental variables approach is used to understand whether a household's decision to switch sources is affected by its proximate neighbors' decisions to switch sources. To answer these questions, primary data was collected by the researchers through field-work in Bangladesh. The results suggest that arsenic-testing and information-provision programs produce persistent behavioral changes that reduce exposure to arsenic, with their impact increasing over time. Comparing the impacts of risk-communication formats, we find that quantitative formats do not significantly increase source-switching behavior, in comparison to that generated by qualitative formats. Lastly, despite econometric identification issues, our data suggest that households gather information about source-switching by observing the actions of their neighbors. In sum, the results presented in this dissertation suggest that the provision of information to rural households can motivate health-improving behavior that reduces households' exposure to arsenic in Bangladesh. This dissertation contributes to the use of information disclosure as a policy instrument to reduce exposure to environmental contaminants.</p> / Dissertation