As a consequence of asset purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB), longer-term yields in the euro area decline, and spreads between euro area long-term yields narrow. To assess spillovers of these recent financial developments, we use a Bayesian variant of the global vector autoregressive (BGVAR) model with stochastic volatility and propose a novel mixture of zero impact and sign restrictions that we impose on the cross-section of the data. Both shocks generate positive and significant spillovers to industrial production in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and other non-euro area EU member states. These effects are transmitted via the financial channel (mainly through interest rates and equity prices) and outweigh costs of appreciation pressure on local currencies vis-á-vis the euro (trade channel). While these results represent general trends, we also find evidence for both cross-country heterogeneity of effects within the euro area and region-specific spillovers thereof. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Terminada a Segunda Guerra Mundial, o continente europeu encontrava-se devastado pelo conflito que havia mobilizado o maior contingente de países envolvidos numa só guerra até então. Nesse cenário, renasceria a ideia de criação de um bloco econômico alinhado aos EUA, mas, ao mesmo tempo, economicamente autônomo. Este seria construído lentamente, entre 1948 a 1989, e chegaria ao fim da década de 1980 com 12 participantes que, mais uma vez, presenciariam uma mudança continente europeu. O final da Guerra Fria e o desmonte do bloco soviético marcariam os novos rumos da integração europeia, agora livre da divisão Leste-Oeste. Ainda assim, o século XX se encerraria com boas perspectivas para os defensores de união dos países da Europa, e o desejo por numa agenda mais profunda do que a econômica e de defesa voltaria à pauta. Contudo, o início do século XXI assistiria a intervenções militares, massacres, limpezas étnicas, e guerras justificadas pelo discurso da Guerra ao Terror. Além de crises especulativas que levaram a unificação europeia a uma nova fase de busca de identidade e discurso. Adicionalmente, uma crise financeira, com origem na não-realização de investimentos em papeis de origem estadunidense, e garantidos em última instância pelo governo daquele país, alavancaria a crise de dívida pública de alguns países do subconjunto da União Europeia: a Zona do Euro. Sem liberdade para aplicar políticas fiscais, monetárias ou cambiais próprias, tais países se veriam obrigados a arcar com os custos da opção realizada por seus bancos privados, no mercado financeiro internacional. É esse o tema deste trabalho, a formação e expansão do bloco econômico europeu e a crise que atingiu o subconjunto dos países unificados monetariamente, a Zona do Euro. / After the Second World War, the European continent found itself devastated by the conflict that had mobilized the largest number of countries involved in one war so far. Such scenario would inspire and renew the wish to create a group of countries aligned with the USA, but at the same time economically autonomous. This would slowly be built between 1948 and 1989. By the end of the decade of 1980, the economic bloc counted twelve participants and, once again, the old continent would go thru another transformation. The end of the Cold War and the dismantling of the Soviet bloc would mark the new direction of European integration, now free of East-West polarities. The twentieth century would end with good prospects for the ones who advocated in favor of a more closely union of the countries of Europe, and the desire for a deeper than economic and defense calendar were put back on the agenda. However, the early twenty-first century would watch military interventions, massacres, \"ethnic cleansing\", all justified by the discourse of the \"War on Terror\". In addition, the European unification reached a new phase marked by the search for identity and discourse better related to the new international scenario. In the first decade of this new century, a financial crisis, originated in a low-performing investments in papers of American origin, and ultimately guaranteed by the government of that country, end up by levering the public debt in some countries of the European Union, more precisely, in the Eurozone. Without freedom to apply their own fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies, such countries would be forced to bear the costs of the options held by its private banks in international financial markets. That\'s the theme of this work, the formation and expansion of European economic bloc and the crisis that hit the Eurozone in the first decade of the 21th Century.

The aim of this thesis was to analyze, if the Czech Republic is ready to adopt the Euro and to evaluate benefits and risks of this step. The analysis is comlemented by evaluation of Maastricht criteria, and there is a short view of their fulfilling in the future. The problem of real convergence is discussed in the following chapter. I paid attention to business cycle synchronization in selected countries, to the situation on the Czech labour market and the fiscal policy. Both of them could play the important role after transition to commom monetary policy as other adjustable mechanisms. These mechanisms would help to absorb asymetric shocks our economy after joining eurozone. Finally I explain the dilemma of exchange rate mechanism ERM II and I mention the impact of global crisis on decision on adopting Euro in the Czech Republic.

The diploma thesis is focused on the evaluation of the macroeconomic indicators of Euro Area Member States within 1997 -- 2008. This evaluation considers both the time period before and after introduction of Euro. The first chapter is dedicated to the development of the European and Monetary Union and the following two chapters contain analysis of economic development of the Euro Area within 1997 -- 2001 and 2002 -- 2008. The last chapter results from the current situation on the world markets and it is concerned in the evaluation of the development in the times of economic crisis including measures which has been adopted. By comparison of these two time periods the attention is aimed to the evaluation of the economic development of the Member States in terms of chosen macroeconomic indicators which results from convergence criteria. They are also complemented by important national economic indicators.

In the euro area, the changeover to the euro was accompanied by fears of increases in prices by consumers. However, in most countries the changeover had barely any effect on inflation indices, but a significant effect on perceived inflation and even now people still believe that the price increase was more dramatic than it was in reality. This paper examines the situation in the Czech Republic, being one of the last countries in the EU which have not adapted the euro yet. I am especially interested in finding whether a changeover would lead to price increases even though Czech citizens have got plenty of time to indirectly familiarize with the euro currency. The analysis is based on a laboratory experiment. With this method I am studying the effects of transition to euro on consumer behavior. In addition, I compare the results (indirectly) with those of other European countries. Under the framework of posted price experiment, it can be concluded that, in the particular sample, the changeover to euro currency does in fact affect the outcome of trade at least temporarily. In this case, the changeover from CZK to EUR leads to elevation of prices and reduction of the traded quantities, especially right after the changeover. The main reason for this is that the producers (sellers) tried to exploit the changeover situation in order to increase their profits. All the presented results are significant at 5% level.

This diploma thesis deals with the issue of impact of the euro adoption to less developed EU countries, namely the PIGS countries. The first part defines the Maastricht criteria and their fulfillment by those States before joining the euro area. In the other two parts is analyzed the evolution of macroeconomic indicators before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis. These are the indicators of inflation, current account and net investment positions, the housing market and private loans, public finance, GDP and unemployment. In conclusion, there is an evaluation of the development of the individual countries on the basis of these indicators, assessed the suitability of the Maastricht criteria and the benefits of integrating these countries into EMU both for them and for the euro area as a whole.

Excessive lending activity of banks is considered to be one of the causes of the recent financial and economic crisis. The theme of this thesis is to evaluate the relation of credit and the business cycle in the euro area countries and explore the differences which have been among these countries recorded. The primary objective of this work is the analysis of the credit cycle in these countries and its develoment from 2000 to the present. The paper will address further the question of whether financial markets can create for themselves economic imbalances through endogenous credit "booms". First part will deal with the theory off business cycles, then with alternative approaches, namely the Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman Minsky and followed by the latest theoretical knowledge on the issue of credit cycles. The next part will focus on identifying and analysing factors playing the significant role in the development of the economy in the pre-crisis period. The following section will be devoted to the international comparison of the credit and business cycles in the euro area (selection of those states that were more resistant to crisis and those sensitive to the crisis). The conclusion will address some recommendations for the policies of central banks, which may in turn reduce the pro-cyclical effects of developing leverage.

The European Central Bank implements its monetary policy within the Euro Area -- the biggest project of monetary union in the history. This fact itself draws our attention and gives rise to the questions about the efficiency of the adopted steps in the scope of fulfilling the main objective -- price stability. However when evaluating the overall economic balance we are not only interested in price stability. This paper is focused on ECB monetary policy from a theoretical point of view as well as through comprehensive analysis of its practical effects on economic performance. External and internal balance indicators help us to evaluate the ECB's achievement from 1999 till now. Therefore we can see the origins of the current miserable state of the common currency not in the bad decisions undertaken by the ECB, but in the general conditions, which enabled the formation of the EMU on a very unstable foundation.

This thesis examines the convergence in health care spending in euro area member countries during the period 1995-2010 and the influence of joining euro zone on convergence of health care expenditure. Panel data set covering 17 cross-sectional units (current eurozone member countries) over 15-years time period is examined using the classical approach to convergence. The analyses presented in this thesis provide evidence of sigma-convergence of HCE as a share of GDP. Conditions for sigma-convergence of HCE per capita are not satisfied. As for beta-convergence, the analysis of HCE as a share of GDP confirm the absolute convergence, conditional convergence did not occur. As for HCE per capita, absolute and conditional convergence hypotheses were affirmed. In both cases of absolute convergence, joining the euro area significantly supported convergence of HCE.

This thesis deals with economical development of Euro Area and related structural imbalances and systemic weaknesses. As a region with common monetary policy Euro Area serves as a prime example of consequences of not fulfilling theoretical conditions which are needed for proper functioning of Optimal Currency Area concept. Current economical crisis fully revealed these imperfections and divergence process which deepened dtrucvtural differences between core and peripheral countries. My thesis will describe concept of Optimal Currency Area and international adjustment processes. Cardinal part of thesis will contain description and analysis of economical development of core and peripheral countries within Euro Area since its establishment to present with focus on revealed macroeconomical imbalances. Main aim is to show and analyze major economical causes of present crisis. In the end of thesis possible solutions and reforms designed to prevent similar development in the future will be presented.