学位授与大学：京都大学 ; 取得学位: 博士(工学) ; 学位授与年月日: 2007-09-25 ; 学位の種類: 新制・課程博士 ; 学位記番号: 工博第2846号 ; 請求記号: 新制/工/1419 ; 整理番号: 25531 / 1.1.1 Disaster planning and management: an overview With the rapid economic development and urbanization, the cities are growing fast. Throughout the world it is common to observe that large cities and urban agglomerations along with a wide range of opportunities also bring a variety of safety risk. Cities, as those grow bigger and bigger and become more complex, generally become increasingly vulnerable to hazard, both natural and man-made (Misra, 2004). Many cities are located on seismically active zones, near active volcanoes and on areas prone to cyclones and floods and possibilities of damage by these hazards have increased significantly. Due to the lack of proper awareness and preparedness to disasters, the number of casualties affected and economic losses caused by natural disasters have been increasing over recent decades (EM-DAT, 2004). For example, the Tangshan earthquake (July 28, 1976) in China devastated the whole municipality, and killed 242, 000 people with millions of people homeless (Liu, 1985). The Indian Ocean earthquake (December 26, 2004) and subsequent tsunamis caused a total of 229, 866 people lost, including 186, 983 dead and 42, 883 missing (United Nations, 2005). Now, most of the countries have taken various countermeasures to reduce the losses due to disasters. Safety, risk management and disaster preparedness, are now becoming very import aspects of city management in Japan. In the wake of accelerated urban growth and emergence of strong market forces, local area needs and priorities in Japan changed and so was the perception of day to day risks and security from disasters (Misra, 2004). The structural countermeasures are effective in saving people’s lives and properties especially from the small-scale low-impact disasters. While for the low-frequency high-impact disasters, these measures probably cause more losses especially when the risks level greatly exceeds the resilience capacity of infrastructure. That was exactly what happened in the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake (January 17, 1995) in Japan (The Asashi Simbun, 1996). The earthquake also taught people that the impact of a low-frequency high-impact disaster (catastrophic disaster) may exceed the present capacity of the public rescue and relief services. In most of the similar cases of catastrophic disasters, the local governments are found to be not able to provide the sufficient services to the citizens in the time of disaster. Though various types of national or international assistances from outside of the suffered region may be available, such as those provided by NGOs, NPOs and INGOs, that kind of external assistance is not at all sufficient, particularly for rescue, relief and recovery. So, it is needed to stress the need for community capacity building. Both communities and local authorities should be empowered to manage and reduce disaster risk by having access to the necessary information, resources and authority to implement actions for disaster risk reduction (Hyogo Framework, 2005). If the local government is only the decision-maker in such cases, they may inevitablely be in bias due to the lack of local knowledge even with the experts’ help. The local government should also learn from the local residents. On the other hand, the individual citizens and the local community should have sufficient professional advice for preparation in advance to cope up with the sudden disaster shocks (The Asashi Simbun, 1996). Often due to the lack of professional knowledge, the individual citizens and the local community fail to find their best way to get prepared for disaster risks. They also need to learn from the local government, experts, or NGO/NPOs. This kind of two-way risk communications are often called “social co-learning” (Okada, 2005). Japan, realizing the need for promotion of ‘bottom-up’ planning and closer involvement of the civil society in urban development, also brought in appropriate changes in its Urban Planning Law in the 1992 and made it mandatory for the local governments to adopt participatory urban planning at the local level (Misra, 2004). After the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake, the local government has started to take the proactive countermeasures in collaboration with the local communities and individual citizens. Institutional changes are also under way, which gradually shifted the conventional type of top-down approach towards the bottom-up approach (multi-stakeholder participatory approach) (Okada et al., 2004). In Japan, self help (“Jijyo” in Japanese) and mutual aid (“Kyojyo” in Japanese) are now more advocated by many policy makers and frequently quoted as keywords for community-based disaster reduction, in the official documents and manuals on disaster planning and management. For example, the Disaster Planning Manual of Kagawa Prefecture (2006) emphasizes the importance of self help, and mutual aid for disaster risk management. Such self-help and mutual-aid activities can enhance the individual citizen’s awareness, and enhance their internal communications with other neighboring individuals and communities. Besides the individuals and the community, disaster volunteers, such as NGOs and NPOs, are also taking more and more important roles in the community’s disaster prevention planning and management. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第13375号 / 工博第2846号 / 新制||工||1419(附属図書館) / 25531 / UT51-2007-Q776 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 岡田 憲夫, 教授 中川 大, 教授 多々納 裕一 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

Disasters, ranging from manmade events to natural occurrences, can happen anywhere on the planet, and their consequences can range from economic loss to catastrophic loss of life. Determining how the transportation system fares in the face of these disasters is important so that proper planning can take place before, rather than after, an event has happened. Modeling the transportation system gives operators the ability to discover bottlenecks, to determine the possible benefit of using lane reversals, and to find out the influence of evacuation speed on system efficiency. Models have already been created that are able to model some of these types of disasters with some level of accuracy. These models range from microscopic simulation to regional, macroscopic models. This research examines how an off-the-shelf regional modeling software package, TransCAD, can be used to model emergency evacuations. More specifically, this thesis presents four case studies involving three different types of disasters in Western Massachusetts. Because this research documents a first-hand experience using TransCAD in emergency evacuation planning, the results give regional modelers the ability to modify their models to fit their specific region. These case studies demonstrate how the modified inputs and existing portions of the four-step transportation planning model can be used in place of the usual data demands of the software. Dynamic traffic assignment is used in three of the case studies while the fourth case study uses static traffic assignment. An evaluation of the software package along with lessons learned is provided to measure the performance of the software.

This dissertation seeks to advance the modeling of network flows over time for the purposes of improving evacuation planning. The devastation created by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita along the Gulf Coast of the United States in 2005 have recently emphasized the need to improve evacuation modeling and planning. The lessons learned from these events, and similar past emergencies, have highlighted the problem of congestion on the interstate and freeways during an evacuation. The intent of this research is to develop evacuation demand management strategies that can reduce congestion, delay, and ultimately save lives during regional evacuations. The primary focus of this research will concern short-notice evacuations, such as hurricane evacuations, conducted by automobiles. Additionally, this dissertation addresses some traffic flow and optimization deficiencies concerning the modeling of congested network flows. This dissertation is a compilation of three manuscripts. Chapters 3 and 4 examine modeling network flows over time with congestion. Chapter 3 demonstrates the effects of congestion on flows using a microscopic traffic simulation software package, INTEGRATION. The flow reductions from the simulation are consistent with those found in several empirical studies. The simulation allows for the examination of the various contributing factors to the flow reductions caused by congestion, including level of demand, roadway geometry and capacity, vehicle dynamics, traffic stream composition, and lane changing behavior. Chapter 4 addresses some of the modeling and implementation issues encountered in evacuation planning and presents an improved modeling framework that reduces network flows due to congestion. The framework uses a cell-based linear traffic flow model within a mixed integer linear program (MILP) to model network flows over time in order to produce sets of decisions for use within an evacuation plan. The traffic flow model is an improvement based upon the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) introduced in Daganzo (1994) and Daganzo (1995) by reducing network flows due to congestion. The flow reductions are calibrated according to the traffic simulation studies conducted in Chapter 3. The MILP is based upon the linear program developed in Ziliaskopoulos (2000); however, it eliminates the "traffic holding" phenomenon where it cannot be implemented realistically within a transportation network. This phenomenon is commonly found in mathematical programs used for dynamic traffic assignment where the traffic is unrealistically held back in order to determine an optimum solution. Lastly, we propose additional constraints for the MILP that improve the computational performance by over 90%. These constraints exploit the relation of the binary variables based on the network topology. Chapter 5 applies the improved modeling framework developed in Chapter 4 to implement a demand management strategy called group-level staging -- the practice of evacuating different groups of evacuees at different times in order to reduce the evacuation duration. This chapter evaluates the benefits of group-level staging, as compared to the current practice of simultaneous evacuation, and explores the behavior of the modeling framework under various objective functions. / Ph. D.

This dissertation addresses the development and analysis of optimization models for evacuation planning. Specifically we consider the cases of large-scale regional evacuation using household vehicles and hospital evacuation. Since it is difficult to estimate the exact number of people evacuating, we first consider the case where the population size is uncertain. We review the methods studied in the literature, mainly the strategy of using a deterministic counterpart, i.e., a single deterministic parameter to represent the uncertain population, and we show that these methods are not very effective in generating a good traffic management strategy. We provide alternatives, where we describe some networks where an optimal policy exist independent of the demand realization and we propose some simple heuristics for more complex ones. Next we consider the traffic management tools that can be generated from an evacuation plan. We start by introducing the cell transmission model with flow reduction. This model captures the flow reduction after the onset of congestion. We then discuss the management tools that can be extracted from this model. We also propose some simplification to the model formulation to enhance its tractability. A heuristic for generating a solution is also proposed, and its solution quality is analyzed. Finally, we discuss the hospital evacuation problem where we develop an integer programming model that integrates the building evacuation with the transportation of patients. The impact of building evacuation capabilities on the transportation plan is investigated through the case of a large regional hospital case study. We also propose a decomposition scheme to improve the tractability of the integer program. / Ph. D.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18582号 / 工博第3943号 / 新制||工||1606(附属図書館) / 31482 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科建築学専攻 / (主査)教授 加藤 直樹, 教授 門内 輝行, 教授 神吉 紀世子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM