The thesis is a contribution to the literature on the study and modelling of exchange rate variability, and contains seven chapters. Chapter 1 motivates the study by providing a historical context about its importance, sketches the main themes of the thesis, and gives an overview of the Norwegian economy since the empirical studies are on the Norwegian krone against the Euro exchange rate. Chapter 2 makes a distinction between period and within-period exchange rate variability, a distinction which is of special interest when studying variability across different exchange rate regimes. Also, the exponential model of variability (EMOV) is put forward as a particularly convenient framework for explanatory exchange rate variability modelling. Chapter 3 makes full fuse of these ideas in studying the impact of market activity on exchange rate variability in the case of Norway. The main findings of this study are that the impact of short-term change in market activity, as measured by relative week-to-week changes in quoting frequency, is positive and statistically significant for both definitions of variability, and that the impact is relatively stable across three different exchange rate regimes. Also, our results do not suggest that the persistence in variability can be explained by persistence in the level of quoting. Chapter 4 undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of general to specific (GETS) modelling of exchange rate volatility, and our results suggest GETS-derived models are particularly useful in conditional forecasting. Chapter 5 studies the relation between exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity using a measure of spot NOK/EUR transaction volume from banks within Norway's regulatory borders. Our results do not support the hypothesis that short-term Norwegian market activity has an impact on variability. However, we do find some support of the hypothesis that large and small banks have an opposite impact through their long-term activity. Chapter 6 proposes a solution to a shortcoming in the first stage of David F. Hendry's reduction theory by interpreting the underlying outcome space as a set of possible worlds made up of indeterministic and historically inherited particulars. Finally, chapter 7 concludes and provides suggestions for further research.

The thesis is a contribution to the literature on the study and modelling of exchange rate variability, and contains seven chapters. Chapter 1 motivates the study by providing a historical context about its importance, sketches the main themes of the thesis, and gives an overview of the Norwegian economy since the empirical studies are on the Norwegian krone against the Euro exchange rate. Chapter 2 makes a distinction between period and within-period exchange rate variability, a distinction which is of special interest when studying variability across different exchange rate regimes. Also, the exponential model of variability (EMOV) is put forward as a particularly convenient framework for explanatory exchange rate variability modelling. Chapter 3 makes full fuse of these ideas in studying the impact of market activity on exchange rate variability in the case of Norway. The main findings of this study are that the impact of short-term change in market activity, as measured by relative week-to-week changes in quoting frequency, is positive and statistically significant for both definitions of variability, and that the impact is relatively stable across three different exchange rate regimes. Also, our results do not suggest that the persistence in variability can be explained by persistence in the level of quoting. Chapter 4 undertakes an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of general to specific (GETS) modelling of exchange rate volatility, and our results suggest GETS-derived models are particularly useful in conditional forecasting. Chapter 5 studies the relation between exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity using a measure of spot NOK/EUR transaction volume from banks within Norway's regulatory borders. Our results do not support the hypothesis that short-term Norwegian market activity has an impact on variability. However, we do find some support of the hypothesis that large and small banks have an opposite impact through their long-term activity. Chapter 6 proposes a solution to a shortcoming in the first stage of David F. Hendry's reduction theory by interpreting the underlying outcome space as a set of possible worlds made up of indeterministic and historically inherited particulars. Finally, chapter 7 concludes and provides suggestions for further research.

La présente étude offre un panorama sur les interactions et les liens qui existent entre la volatilité des taux de change et les échanges internationaux. L’objectif de ce travail est donc de présenter théoriquement cette relation, puis d’examiner empiriquement l’existence de cette relation de causalité entre le commerce international et la variabilité des taux de change. La littérature portant sur la question se considère dans l'ensemble comme contradictoire et supporte plusieurs controverses qui ne nous permettent pas de conclure clairement quant à la relation en question. Nous essayerons de pousser ces recherches un peu plus loin en réexaminant cette évidence pour le canada et en offrant une investigation empirique sur l’existence éventuelle d'un impact significatif de la volatilité sur les flux désagrégées des exportations sectoriels du canada vers son partenaire, les États-Unis. Nous y examinons la réponse empirique de 5 secteurs d’exportations canadiennes aux variations du taux de change réel effectif entre le canada et les États- Unis. Toutefois, nos résultats obtenus ne nous permettent pas de conclure quant à la significativité relative d’un impact de volatilité de taux de change sur les exportations sectoriels désagrégées destinées aux États-Unis. Dans l’ensemble, même si on admet que les signe des coefficients estimés de la variable de risque dans chaque secteur est négatif, nous arrivons à la conclusion que la volatilité ne semble pas avoir un impact statistiquement significatif sur le volume réelle des exportations du Canada vers les États-Unis. / This study provides an overview on the interactions and linkages between the volatility of exchange rates and international trade. The objective of this work is to present this relationship theoretically and examine, empirically the existence of this causal relationship between international trade and exchange rate variability. The literature on the subject considers himself across as contradictory and supports several controversies that do not allow the clear conclusion about the relationship in question. We try to push this research a step further by reviewing the evidence for Canada and providing an empirical investigation on the possible existence of a significant impact of volatility on sectoral disaggregated flows of Canadian exports to its trading partner, the United States. We empirically examine the response of five sectors of Canadian exports to changes in real effective exchange rate between Canada and the United States. However, our results do not allow us to conclude about the significance of an impact on volatility of exchange rates on disaggregated sectoral exports to United States. Overall, even if we admit that the sign of the estimated coefficients of the exchange risk variable in each sector is negative, we reach the conclusion that the volatility does not seem to have a statistically significant impact on the real volume of exports from Canada to the United States.

The emergence of capital markets in Asia and South America, the relaxation of foreign capital controls and the adoption of flexible exchange rate regimes has prompted heavy cross-border investments in recent years.  Simultaneously, volatility in these foreign exchange markets has increased, leading to increased risk following the adoption of these flexible exchange regimes.  As such, investors have become more interested in knowing what impact the volatile markets have on their investments.  This, they seek to know, through the returns on their stock investments as stock prices are said to be a representation of firm value.   This thesis uses firm size as a parameter to analyse the role of macroeconomic variables with emphasis on  exchange rate variability on stock returns using data from 67 Swedish companies listed on the Stockholm stock exchange and selected from all the three market capitalization segments (large cap, mid cap and small cap) according to the OMX index classification. We used returns from all the non-financial firms listed on the Stockholm stock exchange between the years 1997 to 2009.  Based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and using multiple regression model, we sought to ascertain  if the effect of movements in the SEK/USD and SEK/Euro exchange rates are different for companies of the small, mid and large capitalizations segments of the OMX Stockholm stock exchange and which other control variables will influence these returns more than the exchange rate movements.   Using bilateral monthly exchange rates for the USD and Euro, we find that 55 out of the 67 companies are significantly exposed to exchange rate changes within all the segments.  These are almost evenly distributed relatively across all the capitalization segments though the absolute numbers may differ considerably.  We further use one-way ANOVA to find out if there are any differences in the means of the exposures of the companies in the respective segments.  Still, we find no significant difference in their means.  These therefore give little evidence to conclude that there is actually a difference in the exposure of firms in the respective capitalisation segments to exchange variations.  We also discover that apart from exchange rate variations, other macroeconomic variables also play a big role in determining the returns of the stocks of firms.

La présente étude offre un panorama sur les interactions et les liens qui existent entre la volatilité des taux de change et les échanges internationaux. L’objectif de ce travail est donc de présenter théoriquement cette relation, puis d’examiner empiriquement l’existence de cette relation de causalité entre le commerce international et la variabilité des taux de change. La littérature portant sur la question se considère dans l'ensemble comme contradictoire et supporte plusieurs controverses qui ne nous permettent pas de conclure clairement quant à la relation en question. Nous essayerons de pousser ces recherches un peu plus loin en réexaminant cette évidence pour le canada et en offrant une investigation empirique sur l’existence éventuelle d'un impact significatif de la volatilité sur les flux désagrégées des exportations sectoriels du canada vers son partenaire, les États-Unis. Nous y examinons la réponse empirique de 5 secteurs d’exportations canadiennes aux variations du taux de change réel effectif entre le canada et les États- Unis. Toutefois, nos résultats obtenus ne nous permettent pas de conclure quant à la significativité relative d’un impact de volatilité de taux de change sur les exportations sectoriels désagrégées destinées aux États-Unis. Dans l’ensemble, même si on admet que les signe des coefficients estimés de la variable de risque dans chaque secteur est négatif, nous arrivons à la conclusion que la volatilité ne semble pas avoir un impact statistiquement significatif sur le volume réelle des exportations du Canada vers les États-Unis. / This study provides an overview on the interactions and linkages between the volatility of exchange rates and international trade. The objective of this work is to present this relationship theoretically and examine, empirically the existence of this causal relationship between international trade and exchange rate variability. The literature on the subject considers himself across as contradictory and supports several controversies that do not allow the clear conclusion about the relationship in question. We try to push this research a step further by reviewing the evidence for Canada and providing an empirical investigation on the possible existence of a significant impact of volatility on sectoral disaggregated flows of Canadian exports to its trading partner, the United States. We empirically examine the response of five sectors of Canadian exports to changes in real effective exchange rate between Canada and the United States. However, our results do not allow us to conclude about the significance of an impact on volatility of exchange rates on disaggregated sectoral exports to United States. Overall, even if we admit that the sign of the estimated coefficients of the exchange risk variable in each sector is negative, we reach the conclusion that the volatility does not seem to have a statistically significant impact on the real volume of exports from Canada to the United States.

There are two main views of advertising – the informative view and the persuasive view. This thesis studies aspects of the informative view. One aspect of interest is whether firms can benefit from collusion on advertising even though advertising is only informative. If so, will this enhance or lower welfare? There are several reasons why firms may want to collude on adver­tising. First, the legal field is tilted in favour of nonprice collusion. Second, it is not at all obvious that collusion on price is more profitable than collusion on advertising and third, the analyses of Grossman and Shapiro (1984) and others show that profits can be increased by restricting advertising. In Paper 1, we examine firms’ incentives to collude on advertising and the implications for welfare. We find that collusion on advertising and competition on price is more profitable than competition on both price and advertising. We also find that semicollusion on advertising is detrimental to welfare. This suggests a need for monitoring, especially since it is in the interest of firms to restrict price advertising. We also compare semicollusion on price to semicollusion on advertising. We find that, in general, semicollusion on price does not lead to higher profits compared to semicollusion on advertising. Hence we lend theoretical support to the empirical literature that consistently find evidence of semicollusion on advertising rather than on price. Another important issue concerns the effect, on prices and profits, of ad-vertising only a subset of the product range. Many firms, in particular those in the retail sector, sell a wide variety of products but only advertise a few. Recent empirical evidence suggests that prices of unadvertised products are higher (Milyo and Waldfogel, 1999). Theoretically, little is known. In Paper 2, we study the effects of advertising only a subset of products. We allow for both low and high differentiation and, at the same time, we explicitly model the advertising decision. We find that the extend of differentiation between competing firms plays an important role in the analysis of loss leader pricing. When firms sell products with the same reservation price, loss leader pric­ing obtains only when differentiation is low. When products are less similar however, price competition is less intense and, as a result, firms advertise prices above marginal cost. Our loss leader pricing results enable us to shed some light on the seemingly paradoxical empirical findings in the marketing literature that loss leader pricing fails to increase store traffic, loss leader sales and hence to increase profits. We also consider a different subject – price discrimination. Although it is well understood that movements in the exchange rate have a bearing on firm profitability and hence affect firm behaviour, the role of exchange rate variability in the firm’s choice of the number of varieties to produce has (to my knowledge) not been explored. This, despite the fact that the product mix is an important aspect of firm strategy. By tinkering with the number of varieties, a firm can bolster its ability to extract consumer surplus. In Paper 3, we explore this issue. We show that variability in the exchange rate induces the firm to vertically segment markets (i.e., offer two varieties in each market). This happens because exchange rate variability affects income dispersion and hence the firm’s incentives to extract consumer surplus. To better extract surplus, the firm offers two price-quality menus, high quality variant (priced high) for top-end surplus extraction and a low quality variety (priced low) to address market coverage concerns. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005 S. 3-9: sammanfattning, s. 13-95: 3 uppsatser</p>