A previsão de demanda que combina métodos quantitativos e a opinião de especialistas é uma técnica amplamente utilizada na tentativa de aproximar a previsão da demanda real. A presente dissertação apresenta uma revisão bibliográfica sobre combinação de previsões e propõe um método combinado a partir de métodos quantitativos e opinião de especialistas. A revisão sistemática da literatura foi realizada em trabalhos atuais e de relevância para o tema em estudo, com o auxílio de cinco bases de dados. O referencial teórico, que totaliza 38 publicações, apresenta conceitos teóricos sobre combinação de previsões, bem como exemplifica, através de aplicações práticas, como esta técnica está sendo utilizada pelas empresas. Com base nesta revisão foi possível estruturar um método combinado de previsão de demanda. O método proposto não só combina matematicamente as previsões quantitativas e qualitativas, como também pondera, através da matriz de comparações do método AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), a opinião de cada especialista responsável por gerar as previsões qualitativas. Esta dissertação, além de descrever detalhadamente o método proposto, ilustra a aplicação deste através de um estudo de caso realizado em uma empresa metal-mecânica. Tal estudo foi realizado para diferentes modelos de produtos, considerando um horizonte de previsão de doze meses. Ao final, o método AHP mostrou-se uma forma eficiente de ponderação da opinião dos especialistas. O resultado mostra que a previsão combinada proposta apresentou os menores erros entre as previsões analisadas, não só melhorando a acurácia total da previsão em mais de 23%, como também aumentando a acurácia para a maioria dos meses analisados e dos modelos testados. A partir da revisão bibliográfica e do método proposto, oportunidades para estudos futuros foram identificadas. / Demand forecasting that combines quantitative methods and judgmental adjustments is a technique widely used in the attempt to approximate forecast to actual demand. This thesis presents a literature review on combination of forecasts, and proposes a combined method using quantitative methods and expert opinion. A systematic literature review has been carried out analyzing works that were considered relevant to the topic under study, gathered from five databases. The review, which is comprised of 38 references, introduces theoretical concepts about combination of forecast, and exemplifies through practical applications how companies are using this technique. Based on this review it was possible to structure a combination model. The model presented not only combines mathematically the quantitative and qualitative forecast, but also assigns importance weights to experts using the comparison matrices of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). We describe in details the model proposed and illustrate it through a practical application in a manufacturing industry. The case study considers several products in a 12-month forecast horizon. AHP has proven to be efficient for assigning weights to experts. Using the combination model proposed in this thesis we obtained improvements in the overall forecast accuracy of more than 23%; accuracy was also improved for the majority of periods and products analyzed. The literature review and proposed model led to the proposition of several opportunities for future research.

anglicky The aim of this diploma is to describe the role of an expert psychologist witness in criminal trial and to define purpose of forensic psychological assessments. It also tries to answer current questions related to the field of psychological expert opinions. The psychological forensic expert witness is appointed in the same way as other legal expert witnesses. That means he has the same rights and obligations as them. The first chapter is therefore devoted to connoisseurship in general. It deals with the historical development of expert witnesses, current applicable legislation and upcoming legislative changes in this area. The second chapter approaches other expert witnesses in court too. It includes number of forensic experts in various fields and compares expert psychologists to psychiatrists, who often provide their opinions alongside psychologists'. The main part of the chapter is left to expert opinions. It clarifies terms such as personality, intellect, memory, motivation and dangerousness of the offender, that are the most commonly evaluated aspects. Conclusion of second chapter summarises the expert opinions in selected EU countries and the USA. The final chapter is devoted to the expert report as evidence in criminal proceedings. In addition to the description of expert witnesses...

The American marten (Martes americana) is an endangered species in Vermont and a Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need in the northeastern United States. Though historically widespread in northeastern forests, their range presumably contracted to northern Maine and the High Peaks region of the Adirondacks by the early 1900s. Regionally, populations appear to be in recovery. Natural recolonization is believed to have occurred in New Hampshire, northeastern Vermont and the western Adirondacks. A reintroduction effort in southern Vermont that was originally declared unsuccessful is now believed to be the source of a recently detected population in the area. However, our current knowledge of distribution, population history and population connectivity relies primarily on occurrence data from harvest records, which are limited in scope and resolution. In Vermont, where population size is estimated to be extremely low, more robust estimates of population status may be critical to continued recovery. I genotyped individuals from Maine, New York, New Hampshire, northeastern Vermont and southern Vermont at ten microsatellite loci and amplified a 320 base pair segment of the control region of mtDNA to estimate the source(s) of the two Vermont populations using statistical tests of genetic differentiation. I also used Bayesian and stochastic genetic clustering methods to estimate population genetic structure in the northeastern United States. Genetic structure exists at multiple scales in the region as a result of natural barriers to gene flow, human-mediated gene flow, and lineage sorting in relic populations. My results suggest that New Hampshire is a major source of colonization of northeastern Vermont and the population in southern Vermont is either a remnant of the reintroduction or a pre-reintroduction relic that has experienced introgression from the reintroduction stock. I identified three regions where relic populations perceived to be extirpated in the 1900s may have persisted. I also developed an occupancy model for American marten in the northeastern United States using mixed-effects logistic regression based on expert opinion data. Eighteen experts from Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and New York with backgrounds in trapping, wildlife management, and wildlife science participated in the survey. Experts were asked to estimate the probability of marten occupancy at 30 sites in the northeastern United States. Three top models described the data. Habitat covariates in those models were 1) percent canopy cover, 2) percent spruce-fir forest cover, 3) winter temperature, 4) elevation, and 5) road density. An AIC-weighted average of these three models had significant predictive ability (area under an ROC curve = 0.88) with respect to occurrence records in the northeastern United States. In addition, the model predicted that high quality habitat existed patchily along the central and northern Green Mountain spine in Vermont – where no occurrence records exist for at least a century. Top-scoring movement corridors between southern Vermont and nearby populations in northeastern Vermont/New Hampshire and New York occurred in the northern and central Green Mountains and across high resistance movement barriers in the Champlain valley. Corridors to New York were considered strong movement barriers and are unlikely to facilitate gene flow.

The diploma thesis „Circumstances and Legal Consequences of Daytime Road Accidents with Pedestrian“ deals with the interpretation of legal decisions on traffic accidents causes by the vehicle during the day and where the other participant was a pedestrian. The main aim of this work is to find the established limits for the assessment of fault in comparable accident situations. Basic concepts, as a traffic accident, participants of traffic accidents and the position of an expert in the criminal proceedings, are defined within the theoretical part of the thesis. It also deals with the biomechanical aspects of a pedestrian – vehicle collision and the violation of specific regulations. Approximately 1,530 judical decisions were studied and analyzed in the analytical part, of which 40 were selected, that correspond to the requirements of this thesis. In the analytical part there are also 4 expert opinions provided by the Institute of Forensic Engineering of Brno University of Technology, where the above – mentioned limits for the assessment of accidents were applied, as well as the decision according to the jurisdiction.

The diploma thesis titled Interpretation of traffic accident analysis results in relation to related legal decision deals with the interpretation of legal decisions accidents with not giving right of way. The main goal of this thesis is to find an established line for assessing culpability for comparable accident situations. Before the analysis of the 230 court rulings measurement is performed to estimate the distance an speed, because it is closely connected with right of way. In the context of theoretical part is characterized by a right of way, an expert in criminal proceedings, the road traffic regulations, penalties and the factors that influence us while driving. The analytical part draws on 230 court rulings and 5 expert opinions provided by the Institute of Forensic Engineering of the Technical University in Brno. Conclusion of the analytical part an established threshold for assessing culpability for comparable accident situations is found.

Expert and Expert Opinion in Civil Proceedings Abstract This thesis combines the topic of expert opinion as an important means of proof in civil court proceedings with wider issues of expertise. That means it also deals with the conditions for the proper performance of the expert activity with a focus on its outcome - expert opinion. Understanding these relationships in their contexts can play an important role in seeking good practice in the judicial proceeding, evaluating an expert opinion by a court or even being subject to de lege ferenda considerations in the area of regulatory and procedural rules. Since the correct and effective use of this means of proof has a direct impact on the speed and cost efficiency of court proceedings, the issue of optimal setting of expert activity is currently highly up- to-date. Therefore, this thesis focuses first on the issues related to the activity of judicial experts, its legal regulation and deals with the analysis of the requirements of the expert opinion and the correct course of the expert in its elaboration. The next part follows a brief introduction to the theory of proof and represents an expert opinion as a specific means of proof using in civil court proceedings, which requires a number of partial steps. The work focuses on the effects of proper activity of...

Expert Opinion and Its Assessment Abstract Expert opinion is an important institute for professional evaluation of facts and is widely used in public and private law. This thesis primarily focuses on the examination of expert opinion as a means of proof from the point of view of civil procedural law. In civil procedure, an expert opinion often serves as a basis for issuing a court decision. For this reason, high requirements are placed not only on the persons of experts but on expert opinion itself as well. This thesis focuses on the judicial assessments of an expert opinion, i.e. the judicial evaluation of whether the expert opinion meets all the requirements that it should meet by law. Special emphasis is placed on the reviewability of the expert opinion, as it is a prerequisite for any evaluation. Furthermore, the criteria for judicial review of expert conclusions are determined and defined in this thesis. They include legality, relevance and truthfulness. The criterion of factual correctness is examined in more detail, as its application is the most conflicting within the academic circles. However, this work argues and concludes that the court should subject the expert opinion to a full assessment, including the review of factual correctness, otherwise a court decision could ultimately be a...

Název diplomové práce, abstrakt a klíčová slova v anglickém jazyce Title: The crime of drunkenness under the section 360 of the Criminal Code and its current issues Abstract: The Thesis primarily deals with possible theoretical approaches to the crime of drunkenness in continental law and with its legal regulation de lege lata in the Czech Republic. Further, the constituent elements of drunkenness are analysed, and the concept of actio libera in causa is not forgotten either. The provision on the crime of drunkenness under the Czech Criminal Code is also compared to the provisions in other states that are territorially and historically close. The approach to the crime of drunkenness is then examined from historical point of view. Second part of the Thesis concentrates on the problematic of proving the crime of drunkenness in practice in criminal proceedings, with emhasis on the role of the expert opinion in relation to the assessment of insanity and on the process of detecting addictive substances in the body system of an accused. The thesis also contains an analysis of some judicial decisions in which courts of first instance dealt with the crime of drunkenness. Key words: crime of drunkenness, insanity, addictive substances, expert opinion

Modeling habitat suitability is beneficial for management and conservation of a species. Although data-rich models are commonly used, opinion-based models may be a beneficial alternative to estimate suitable habitat locations. Despite the increasing use of habitat models, few studies have linked habitat model covariates (i.e., land cover, weather, and normalized difference vegetation indexes (NDVI)) to demographic parameters. This study evaluates model performance and transferability of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and expert opinion models for predicting American beaver (Castor canadensis) distribution in the southeastern US. I also investigated the relationship of environmental and habitat model covariates to beaver survival. The model’s predictive performance and transferability were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) index. Both model approaches performed well at predicting beaver presence. While MaxEnt had better performance, the expert models predicted greater areas as suitable for beaver. Beaver survival was estimated for northern Alabama and was found to be influenced by NDVI and weather covariates in this study.

The application of new technologies into products allows manufacturers to differentiate their products and fulfil customer requirements. A method to assess the impact of technologies on the fulfilment of customer requirements has been investigated in this research. The main focus is the application of advanced technologies, which may be still in the concept phase, to complex systems using automotive engines as case studies. In these systems the customer will not directly interact with the technologies but the technologies are applied to deliver the range of customer requirements individually or collectively. A standard tool, Quality Functional Deployment (QFD) has been adopted to capture the customer requirements. As all the technology combinations cannot be assessed experimentally due to resource limitations, expert opinion has been employed. A questionnaire has been developed to capture the experts’ opinions of the performance of the technologies in a non-linear Likert-type scale. The combination of expert opinion, where the experts are specialists in a range of engineering disciplines, has been considered and analysis methods incorporating opinion weighting have been developed that parallel established expert opinion analysis methods used for subjective probability risk analysis. The analysis methods enabled different technology combinations to be assessed and customer requirements for different target products to be incorporated to provide a route for optimum technology selection to fulfil customer requirements. A pilot study and two case studies were used to investigate the methodology with Customer feedback used to validate the output in one of the case studies. The research has shown that the Customer Focussed Technology Selection framework and methodology developed in this thesis is a new approach to selecting technologies. The case studies have demonstrated it is an effective framework for evaluating the impact of low technology-readiness-level technologies in complex systems on the Customer. The methodology is suitable for application in technology development processes such as the Jaguar Land Rover TCDS process to support the initial technology selection. / Jaguar Land Rover