Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-06-16T16:34:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jean de Jesus Fernandes.pdf: 598485 bytes, checksum: 3940f5cb6a0ac96f4025905671b7595b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-16T16:34:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jean de Jesus Fernandes.pdf: 598485 bytes, checksum: 3940f5cb6a0ac96f4025905671b7595b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / CNPQ – Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Este estudo investiga a evolução da especialização no comércio internacional do Brasil juntamente com a Alemanha, Áustria, China, Croácia, Estados Unidos, Finlândia, França, Irlanda, Israel, Itália, Japão, Polônia, República Tcheca e Suíça entre os anos 2000 e 2012. Por meio da aplicação do modelo de sofisticação das exportações e do comércio intraindústria, foi possível mensurar os resultados da expansão mundial da sofisticação em nível setorial e também pela pauta exportadora desses países. Os resultados indicam que a composição da sofisticação das exportações mundiais, em nível setorial, tem relativa tendência de aumento nos setores ligados aos produtos primários e pesquisa e desenvolvimento (P&D). Por sua vez, os resultados da sofisticação na pauta exportadora dos países analisados apontam relativa tendência para o aumento dos setores ligados aos produtos primários, com fator de produção intensivo em trabalho e economias de escala. No entanto, o crescimento da sofisticação das exportações nesses setores pode ser decorrente do aumento nos preços internacionais das commodities, da expansão do comércio intraindústria ou dos próprios processos das especializações do mercado. / This study investigate the evolution of specialization in Brazil’s international trade along with Germany, Austria, China, Croatia, United States, Finland, France, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, Czech Republic and Switzerland between years 2000 and 2012. By the application of a sophistication model of the exports and the intra-industry trade, it was possible to measure the results of global expansion of sophistication in a sector level and also for the exporting agenda of these countries. The results indicate that the composition of the sophistication of global exports in sector level has a relative increase tendency in sectors related to primary products and research and development (R&D). In turn, the results of sophistication in the exporting agenda of the analyzed countries indicates a relative tendency of the sectors related to primary products, with intensive production factor in labor and economies of scale. However, the growth of sophistication of exports in these sectors may be due to the increase in international commodity prices, the expansion of intra-industry trade or own processes of market specialization.

Ricardo est célébré pour ses théories- sa théorie de croissance qui nous enseigne le concept de la trappe à stagnation industrielle et sa théorie de l'avantage comparatif selon laquelle les différences de technologie déterminent la direction de l'échange international. Quel rôle les théories ricardiennes ont a-t-elles consacré à l'investissement direct étranger (IDE) demeure une question peu explorée. Il s'avère ainsi approprié d'étudier les implications de l'IDE et du transfert technologique vis-à-vis de ces théories. Cette thèse met l'accent sur les approches ricardiennes de croissance et de commerce international pour traiter l'IDE, le transfert technologique et le commerce international, construit et développe de nouvelles approches théoriques et prédictions ricardiennes. Des analyses économétriques sont ensuite effectuées pour tester ces prédictions.Cette thèse se compose de quatre chapitres. Deux parties qui contiennent chacune deux chapitres sont présentées. La première partie propose une revisitation et une reformulation des approches macroéconomiques de l'IDE suivant une approche ricardienne. La deuxième partie traite les relations entre l'IDE, le transfert technologique, la sophistication des exportations et les termes de l'échange des pays en développement et fournit des analyses empiriques à l'appui pour tester les prédictions ricardiennes.Le premier chapitre réexamine et généralise l'approche de l'IDE par la théorie ricardienne de croissance. Ce chapitre prolonge l'analyse d'Ozawa, met l'accent sur « les goulots d'étranglement ricardiens » et le risque de trappe à stagnation industrielle à la Ricardo-Hicks et examine les facteurs « push » expliquant l'investissement direct sortant. Les prédictions de cette approche sont ensuite testées sur un panel de pays émergents et en transition. Les résultats économétriques portant sur un panel de pays émergents et en transition confirment les prédictions théoriques de l'approche macroéconomique d'Ozawa en matière d'IDE sortant.Le second chapitre développe un modèle ricardien classique en introduisant l'IDE Nord Sud. Nous reformulons « le principe de correspondance » développé par Kojima. Nous montrons que la correspondance entre les taux de profits absolus et les avantages comparatifs explique l'émergence de l'IDE originaire des secteurs comparativement désavantagés dans les pays développés et destinés aux secteurs comparativement avantagés dans les pays en développement.Le troisième chapitre, dans sa première section, développe un modèle ricardien Nord-Sud avec transfert de technologie. Notre contribution consiste à examiner le rôle de l'élasticité de substitution entre les biens dans les conséquences du transfert technologique sur les termes de l'échange et le bien-être des pays. Les conditions d'une baisse des termes de l'échange pour le pays en développement sont explicitées, et finalement sont précisées les conditions dans lesquelles le bien être du pays en développement peut baisser à la suite de ce transfert de technologie. La seconde section prolonge l'analyse aux cas du transfert technologique via l'IDE et les licenses. Les tests empiriques montrent que les IDE entrants et le versement de royalties s'accompagnent d'une baisse des termes de l'échange pour les pays en développement.Le quatrième chapitre associe le modèle ricardien avec un continuum de biens aux travaux empiriques de Hausmann, Hwang et Rodrick (2007) et de Rodrik (2006) sur la sophistication des exportations. Un modèle empirique est développé afin d'établir les liens qui existent entre la présence des firmes étrangères et la sophistication des exportations des pays en développement. Ensuite, la question des termes de l'échange des pays en développement est mise en évidence. Les tests empiriques sur un panel de pays en développement montrent que l'augmentation de la sophistication des exportations des pays en développement s'accompagne d'une baisse de leurs termes de l'échange. / Ricardo is commonly celebrated for the theoretical achievements -his theory of growth which introduces us to the concept of trap of industrialism and his theory of comparative advantage that introduces us to the idea that technological differences across countries is the basis of international trade. What role Ricardo's theories have given to foreign direct investment (FDI) has remained a less explored issue. Thus, it is certainly relevant to study the implications of FDI and technology transfer for these theories. This thesis puts back the Ricardian growth bottleneck and the Ricardian trade approaches toward FDI and technology transfer at the forefront of analysis, builds and develops new theoretical settings and predictions. Moreover, this thesis provides new empirical applications.This thesis consists of four chapters. Two parts emerge. In the first part, we mainly revisit and reformulate the Japanese economic thought toward outward FDI, within the Ricardian context. We also implement econometric estimation to test the relevance and usefulness of this theoretical approach to outward FDI from catching-up countries. In the second part, we provide theoretical frameworks with empirical applications. We focus on the effects of technological inflows, especially via inward FDI, on the developing receiving countries and we develop new Ricardian approaches with empirical follow-up on the predictions.In chapter 1, we focus on outward FDI as an escape response to home country growth bottlenecks, which represents an important but under-explored phenomenon in the FDI literature. We review the push-factor approaches based on the pressure effect of the “Ricardian bottlenecks” to explain outward FDI. We reconsider Ozawa's macroeconomic theory of outward FDI, extend it and argue for a widespread applicability of FDI aimed at overcoming generalized “Ricardian bottlenecks”, especially, nowadays, natural resource-scarcity and the insatiable quest for energy, industrial raw materials and fuels. Our empirical findings confirm that outward FDI from emerging countries and transition economies (catching-up countries) acts as an escape response from “Ricardian bottlenecks” and strengthen the reasonableness, the usefulness and the empirical robustness of Ozawa's macroeconomic theory of FDI.In chapter 2, we reformulate Kojima's correspondence principle within Ricardian setting and point out that OFDI originating from the comparatively disadvantaged industry in the developed country and going to the comparatively advantaged industry in the developing country should follow the direction of absolute profit rates which is a reflection of the comparative advantage patterns.In chapter 3, we mainly focus, in the first section, on the welfare effect of North-South technology transfer within Ricardian setting. We single out the respective role of the relative size of both countries, the efficiency of the technology which is transferred, and the elasticity of substitution between the goods which are produced. In the second section of chapter 3, we explore what are the consequences of free technology transfer, licensing and FDI on the North-South welfare. We also provide an empirical analysis of the effect of licensing and foreign presence on the developing countries' terms of trade. We find that inward FDI and royalties' payment deteriorate the terms of trade of the developing and emerging countries.In chapter 4, we combine an extended continuum Ricardian trade setting which rank sophistication of exports by their technology intensity with the new advanced wave of empirical literature on export sophistication. Using data from the developing and emerging countries, we test the core theoretical prediction that foreign involvement and export penetration facilitate technological progress and upgrades export sophistication of a country by leading it to expand the range of goods that it produces toward sectors with rising productivity. In our next step, we bring the debate on the deterioration of the developing countries' terms of trade back into the limelight. Importantly, we show that despite the increase in their export sophistication, the developing countries continue to face terms of trade deterioration.

<p>This dissertation consists of three major chapters. The first chapter is dedicated to testing a novel gravity model of international trade, while the last two chapters explore cross-country commitment and implementation behavior within the World Trade Organization’s Trade Facilitation Agreement. </p> <p><strong>Chapter 1:</strong> I test a novel theoretical gravity model of international trade on firm-level export data from Colombia in 2018. The model assumes a power law relationship between trade flows and distance, with the distance elasticity resulting from two dynamic processes: firm-export growth captured in a Pareto distribution; and the growth of the distance over which those exports are sold. Although the model has been shown to work well in French data, its usefulness for interpreting data from other countries remains unexplored. I find evidence that the model fails in Colombia because some large firms contradict its assumptions by exhibiting shorter export distances compared to smaller firms in the sample. I hypothesize that these large firms are branches of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs). MNCs’ headquarters constraint the export growth of its affiliates as well as the markets they reach. While I cannot prove firms’ MNC affiliation, I use export sophistication as an imperfect metric to reflect MNC presence. When MNC affiliates are excluded from the sample, firm export distance rises faster with firm size, leading to improved predictions of the distance elasticity of trade in Colombia by the model. These findings have implications not only for the tested model but also for other theories that explain gravity in international trade through firm-level behavior.</p> <p><strong>Chapter 2:</strong> We use a new database of commitments made during the process of ratifying the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) to study variation in countries’ commitment behavior. The TFA is a novel World Trade Organization agreement because it allows developing countries to select commitments from a menu of best practices in trade facilitation, rather than to consent, or not, to a comprehensive package of negotiated commitments. The operation of this <em>à la carte</em> approach to concluding trade agreements is worthy of study in its own right, but the commitment data also offer a high-level description of progress in an international effort to improve border management procedures around the globe. Our study uses data on TFA commitments to describe progress across subcomponents of the agreement. A regression model shows that the number of Type A trade facilitation commitments that a country made in the TFA ratification process depends on its level of development, population size, ability to control corruption, and foreign aid received to support trade facilitation. We use multidimensional scaling techniques to study differences in the content of national commitment bundles. This approach demonstrates that variation in the content of countries’ commitments is closely tied to the number of commitments made.</p> <p><strong>Chapter 3:</strong> This chapter examines the implementation progress of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) from 2019 to 2023. The TFA, which is the latest World Trade Organization agreement, came into force in 2017. In its novelty, it allows developing countries to set their own implementation schedule and adjust it if needed. This flexibility aligns implementation requirements with the capabilities of signatory countries, but introduces uncertainties in achieving complete global implementation and fully realizing the potential benefits of the agreement. Using data on the notified implementation dates for each measure of the TFA, this study describes the progress made in implementing different subcomponents of the agreement over a period of five years. A regression analysis suggests that the annual rate of progress towards achieving full TFA implementation does not vary based on country characteristics such as GDP per capita, population size, or landlocked status. Assuming that the tendency at which countries implement measures remains unchanged, I project that 95% of developing countries will achieve 95% TFA implementation between the years 2036 and 2047.</p>